The 2018 Season Will Not Have a Pitch Clock
Rob Manfred wants the game to move faster. Funny thing is, he’s not alone. The players also want the game to move faster. Who would ever want to spend more time at work? Everyone’s aware that baseball games now are taking longer than ever. Everyone knows that’s far from ideal. As possible fixes go, there have simply been differences of opinion. The conversation about the slow free-agent market bled into the conversation about making the game speed up, so for some time it seemed like Manfred might unilaterally introduce his own pace-of-game directives. But now we have news that the league and the union have gotten along. There will be new rules for 2018.
A pitch clock isn’t among them. For months, it felt like a 2018 inevitability, because Manfred is so clearly in favor. It’s no coincidence the pitch clock has been implemented at various other levels of competition — Major League Baseball is slowly getting surrounded. The idea of the big-league pitch clock isn’t going to go away. But it has been set aside for now, as players collectively didn’t like it. They didn’t want to agree to such a fundamental change to the game. What we’re going to have are limits on mound visits, as well as shorter breaks between innings and pitcher substitutions. For the most part, for now, baseball is leaving the pace to the players. And the players get to celebrate a victory.
Before moving on, I want to make it absolutely clear that the pitch clock isn’t dead. It’s just sleeping. Maybe it’ll come back up in eight or nine months. What this is is a reprieve. The players know where the league stands, but the league is granting another chance to speed the game up with no pitch clock included. It worked, after all, only three seasons ago. It’s just that that improvement was temporary.
And while the players are happy to avoid a clock, there is that concession. Mound visits generally do serve a purpose. They’re not just pointless conversations; often, catchers are going over new signals. Teams now are more paranoid than ever about sign-stealing, to the point where, in last year’s playoffs, I saw catchers going through full sets of signs even with no one on base. The new limit is set to six visits per nine innings. That is, visits that don’t result in a pitching change. The old rule also still applies, about coach visits per inning. If someone now attempts a seventh visit, the umpire has the authority to stop it. Catchers and pitchers are going to have to make adjustments, spending more time on their pregame preparation.
There’s a difference between game length and game pace. We’ve all watched great games that lasted four hours, and we’ve all watched dreadful games that lasted two and a half. Typically, though, the former works as a proxy of the latter. So there’s no questioning why so many parties want the games to move faster. It’s because the games have gradually slowed.
This is nothing you haven’t seen before. Last year set a new league record of 185 minutes per nine-inning game. So many players and fans have resisted any changes, saying that baseball doesn’t have a problem, that it’s always worked the same way. But baseball has undeniably gotten slower, and even if you don’t think there’s a problem with the 2017 numbers, the trend suggests it was all only going to get worse. There need to be adjustments. Adjustments, to cut the trend off.
The argument in favor of a pitch clock is pretty simple. We have only ten years of pace data at the major-league level, but it’s revealing.
Even over just one decade, average pace has slowed by 2.6 seconds, or 12%. That doesn’t seem like very much time until you remember how many pitches are actually thrown in the average game. You see that drop in 2015, when baseball more strongly enforced a batter’s-box rule. The rule is still on the books, but the pace improvement has disappeared, and then some. Consensus is that this is a consequence of lax enforcement. In one way, that strengthens the argument for a pitch clock — you can’t trust humans to be in charge of these things. But in another way, this is also proof of change that can be accomplished without a clock at all. Pace did get better in 2015. Everyone just needs to do that, and stay vigilant.
I think just looking at pace can also be misleading. For example, plate appearances are lasting longer than they have in 30 years.
As you know, strikeouts are up, and velocity is up, and so there are just more deep counts. Pitchers, overall, slow down as counts get deeper and deeper. I don’t know if it’s about the increasing stakes; deep-count pitches have broader swings in potential value than early-count pitches. It might also just be building fatigue. For pitchers, and for hitters. Both pitching and swinging can tire you out. It can also be mentally taxing to be involved in a seven-pitch showdown. The time between hitters offers something of a break. We probably can’t expect pitchers to work that much faster. Some of them could absolutely stand to speed up, and the same goes for many hitters, but there’s only so much that can reasonably be accomplished.
In the past, I’ve been more strongly pro-pitch clock. And even now, I think I’d be okay with it. I suspect that players could adjust very quickly, and few would ever be affected. I also think it’s less of a solution than I used to. Firstly, it is a fundamental change to the sport, a timer where no timer has existed. And games and at-bats don’t drag because of time between ordinary pitches. Many longer delays happen because of pick-off attempts, or foul balls. Or, there are those times when the pitcher needs the catcher to go back over the signals, to get on the same page. I don’t think the problem is a second here or there. Trimming pace with a clock would be helpful, but so would eliminating more of the dead time. The strings of several seconds in a row.
Innings are now going to start more promptly, with less standing around. And fans almost never love to watch a mound meeting. Now, again, many of those meetings are strategic in purpose, so getting to have fewer of them will be an obstacle, from the player perspective. But more thorough preparation can help to get over that. Different sequences of signals can help to get over that. And it would be helpful to reduce league-wide sign-stealing paranoia. That’s addressed in part within the new rules. It’s possible that having fewer meetings will reduce the worry on its own. And there’s also that lingering idea of catchers and pitchers wearing earpieces or wristbands. Dave Cameron wrote about that in September. And Buster Posey happened to just lend the idea further support, in conversation with Andrew Baggarly.
I’m definitely not opposed to an earpiece, one in my helmet, and in the pitcher’s ear. That solves it. A guy’s on second, a guy fouls a ball off and steps out of the box and it’s as simple as saying, `All right, let’s go to this sequence of signs.’ Or you don’t even put a sign down. You just say, ‘OK, we’re throwing this pitch right here.’ Who knows if that’ll happen. I think it’s a great idea.
Of course there would be problems, predictable and unpredictable, but if the catcher and pitcher could be put in direct contact, then at least in theory, the sign-stealing problems go away. The miscommunication goes away. The need for most meetings goes away. I’m not saying this is a necessity, but if a pitch clock or automated strike zone is considered an inevitability, why isn’t this? Why shouldn’t baseball get what football has had for years? Some fans and players would miss the old-fashioned stealing-signs-from-second aspect, but the game would be cleaner and faster. It’s out there, and it has support.
Anyway, that’s kind of veering into a different area. For now, we have new rules, which are less dramatic than was threatened. For 2018, baseball’s going to try to work on its pace, but without the aid of the long-rumored pitch clock. There are going to be fewer mound meetings. There are going to be quicker inning breaks. Next offseason, depending on the game-pace results, the pitch clock could come up again. But the players have succeeded in putting that off. And the players have collectively worked to play more quickly before, in 2015, so it can be done. The question is: Can it be sustained? The players insisted on the right to find out, in a clock-less environment. I don’t know if baseball’s pace can ever be what Manfred wants it to be in this era of high velocity and strikeouts, but we’ll see how 2018 shakes out. Baseball will take another shot on smaller changes, before folding in a big one.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.



the brolific Jeff Sullivan
I’m sure I’ve said this before, but the dip in pace from 2014 to 2015 must have been Josh Beckett’s retirement, and the rise from 2015 to 2016 must have been Mark Buehrle’s retirement.
Many thumbs ups!!!
fire manfred, this clown is ruining the game. so sad
For many years, I couldn’t really fathom disliking a commissioner more than I disliked Selig. But then Selig retired, and that all changed.
They cut a commercial! That’s YUGE.
But umps have “discretion” and there are no in-game penalties for pace violations. So I remain skeptical that anything will change. At all.
I think this’ll be an interesting case. The players can guess that, if the games don’t speed up, a pitch clock will be implemented. It’ll be a subtle but ever-present incentive. But, yeah, based on the 2015 example, enforcement of pace rules diminishes over time. So we will get to see just how badly players want to avoid a clock, and how well they understand consequences of their behavior.
From your chart, it looks like there has been about a 20-minute increase in average game length over the past 15 years. How many minutes does an average pitching change take, and how many pitching changes are there on average per game? And how much has that number increased over the past decades? With the increasing popularity of 8-man bullpens, can’t we expect a progression toward more pitching changes per game–events which will each tack on additional minutes of game time? To me, that seems to be the real ‘culprit’ here, which renders quibbling about a few seconds between pitches moot.
Give the catchers a mic already. If a runner at 2nd steals a sign, that’s baseball. Limiting mound visits is only going to encourage more sign-stealing from technological means.
With only 2:05 between half-innings, the TV guys are going to have to get to get to break FAST.
You can just give the pitchers and catchers a sheet of paper with numerous sign sequences and they can just signal (of just yell) which sequence they are using, and then the players take out their sheets, and yeah, that won’t take a lot of extra time…
If pitchers and catchers had earpieces, wouldn’t hitters be able to hear which pitch the catcher is calling? When they are in the box, they stand with their heads like four feet away from the catcher’s head.
In football the defensive players are all within earshot of the opposing quarterback. How could that possibly work? Oh, right, they have a code. If the batter hears the catcher say “blue 82” what exactly does he expect to be coming out of the pitcher’s hand?
Do mikes really help alleviate the sign-stealing paranoia? Problem 1) the catcher has to cover his mouth to prevent lip-reading by guys on the bases, coaches or teams willing to cheat by electronic means. That could prevent the pitcher from clearly hearing him. Problem 2) even if the catcher covers his mouth he has to prevent batter from hearing what he’s saying which means he has to move away from him which may take up at least some of the time that a mound visit would. Remember, in football they have huddles which in baseball would equate to a mound meeting. Problem 3) If the pitcher is doing the talking he won;t be heard but still has to cover his mouth to prevent lip reading but can also lead to muffled sound. Problem 4) The inevitable technical failures.
I’m all for limiting mound visits. I don’t see the mike/receiver thing as a way to get around it.
The battery today uses a code, but it’s limited by the number of fingers on one hand. A vocal code can be a lot more elaborate, allowing the catcher to speak in easy earshot of the batter without giving anything away. The pitcher can do likewise, without lip-reading being a problem. As to technical failures, so what? Bullpen phones fail too, occasionally. Players get caught trapped in bathrooms between innings. Things happen, but it’s just a game. This isn’t manned spaceflight or air traffic control. If something isn’t working they notify the ump and fall back on the old system until the next inning when they can grab one of the other couple of dozen earpieces they team has laying around.
The finger signals are not limited by the number of digits. It also depends on the sequence of signs and an indicator signal. Yes, you can very elaborate codes but the more elaborate the code system the more chance of confusion. In any case I really doubt that teams will want hitters overhearing the codes for the same reason they don’t want batters peeking at the catcher’s hand signals.
I wouldn’t pooh-pooh the technical issues. Bullpen phones aren’t used nearly as often as pitch signals and its not exactly a secret who is warming up in the bullpen so its not a proper comparison. If teams get dependent on electronic signaling they will feel that they are a competitive disadvantage if they lose their pitcher-catcher link.
Then there’s also the issue of cheating by electronic means which can be mitigated to some extent but there will always be a residue of doubt since it will be hard to disprove.
Personally, I applaud these changes. They really speed up the pace of the game without drastically affecting the players’ rhythms. I’ve thought all along that the ridiculous number of mound visits were a bigger problem, as they often disrupt a game’s biggest moments, thereby drastically reducing the pace of the game even if the overall time of play isn’t much different. Nobody wants to see the catcher visit the mound yet again when the go-ahead run is at the plate.
You forgot to mention how they’re also overhauling the replay system to be more efficient, which may be an even bigger improvement on cutting down dead time than the limited mound visits or shorter commercial breaks.
“They didn’t want to agree to such a fundamental change to the game.”
Actually, the only change is that umpires would now be enforcing a rule that has been in the book for decades.
“8.04 When the bases are unoccupied, the pitcher shall deliver the ball to the batter within 20 seconds after he receives the ball.”
Of course, there are numerous rules in the book that haven’t been enforced in professional baseball forever. Another is: “6.02 The batter is not at liberty to step in and out of the batter’s box at will.”
If baseball simply enforced the rules already in place, the pace of the game would improved dramatically.
It’s interesting to note how the average game time skyrocketed during the 80’s, just as the modern bullpen was coming into vogue and managers like Tony La Russa started micromanaging their relievers by making it common practice to limit most relief appearances to one inning at most and sometimes making multiple pitching changes in the same inning.
There is no question you could speed up the game by limiting the number of relievers allowed per game or not allowing a pitcher to leave the game until he has faced three batters. Whether people would like that change, I don’t know. Certainly if you are attending in person constant relief changes at the most tense part of the game can be a let down.
For elucidation purposes, Buster Posey won’t relay the pitch call to the pitcher, just what code they’re using. Especially since you can change that code between innings, very, very little need to ‘cover your mouth’ or whatnot.
Sure, but the signs given by base coaches have a “code” that can be changed between innings and those have been stolen all through the history of baseball. In reality, there would be a limited number of codes and if they are overheard enough the signs themselves can be decoded by the relationship of the code to the pattern of pitches in the same way that signs from base coaches can be decoded by sharp observers. True, you can change them often enough to make decoding impractical but that will dramatically increase the chances of misunderstanding between the pitcher and catcher.
So: 1), give Posey and the rest their mike; 2), enforce staying in the batter’s box (this Brewers’ fan suggests calling it the ‘Ryan Braun Rule’); and 3) start limiting throws to 1st base (and count each ‘step off’ as a throw; call this the ‘Stinkin’ Tony LaRussa Rule’);
With the mound visits rule, I really think the pace of play problem is solved. And without a pitch clock.
“Teams now are more paranoid than ever about sign-stealing, to the point where, in last year’s playoffs, I saw catchers going through full sets of signs even with no one on base. ”
That’s not necessarily new and it’s not restricted to the playoffs. After the story about the Jays having a sign stealer in the outfield seats broke in 2011, I looked into it using MLB.tv and some teams would always use their full sets of signs when they were playing against the Jays in Toronto.
I intend this to be constructive, but I understand if it is read as snide or smugly prescriptive. All the same, I am loyal to this site and do wish it well, and will not see however many down votes this comment receives. I am willing to be that crappy person who, all the same, probably is saying something that needs to be said.
FanGraphs has to be losing oodles of new readers, readers who could become regular readers, and thus losing oodles of dollars by being consistently slow to post a response to breaking news. This problem seems to have worsened this off-season.
It’s a general problem, but specifically I am commenting because news of JD Martinez signing with the Boston Red Sox broke hours ago. When news breaks, people seek coverage and analysis, and use search engines to find it. These people often click a link to a site they did not know existed before searching for coverage of that news, and internet magic is made. I know everyone at FanGraphs knows this, surely better than I do. Timely response to breaking news is an imperative of internet journalism (one I sucked at.)
I was hoping this problem would be rectified with the wave of new hires. But … here we are, a signing so widely anticipated that a writer could have mocked up a post in advance has occurred, and the latest post is a response to the relative non-news of Manfred declining to institute a pitch clock.
Anyway, I remember certain commenters would be highly critical. Most people in the community I was editor for deeply disliked these commenters and dismissed their criticism. Many were indeed trolls. But many had a point, and something about the embarrassment of being called out publicly in the comments section spurred me to action.
So here goes … not intending to troll but genuinely concerned about the direction and future of FanGraphs, I am off-topic and overly correcting.
I have never considered Fangraphs to be a source of news, just for commentary.
Don’t you want it to comment on the news though?
I love the commentary outside of news, but seeing commentary on what’s new would definitely be a bonus.
I would like to see baseball decide that all foul balls (including those with 2 strikes in the count) count as strikes. There’s nothing more boring (or time-consuming) in baseball than watching a batter foul off umpteen pitches in a row.
If a batter should be penalized for fouling off a pitch when there are fewer than 2 strikes, he should be penalized for fouling off a pitch when there are 2 strikes as well…
I wish I could downvote this more than once. Many times more than once.
I find Manfred’s obsession with pace of play to be fascinating. Does anyone have as much of a problem with the length of games as he does? I’ve rarely come across articles saying “Baseball Games Are Too Long”, but there are plenty of articles saying “Rob Manfred Thinks That Baseball Games Are Too Long.”
Not saying that it isn’t a valid issue, but I think a disproportionate amount of Manfred’s effort is directed towards it. Almost as if he wants coming up with the “solution” to this “issue” to be his legacy.
Yes, I have a problem with the length of games. As someone who fell in absolute love with the game in the early 80’s, I find today’s MLB games to be almost unwatchable. When the batter fouls a ball into the stands, it’s as if we’re restarting the game; everyone takes a fifteen-second break, as if there’s a streaker or something. Then I sit through three-minutes of nothing while someone not at the park decides if the runner’s foot touched first a nano-second before or after the throw appeared to be “firmly” in the fielder’s mitt, and then the catcher goes to the mound twice in an inning, and then a reliever who has been warming up for twenty minutes gets to stop the game for three more while he warms up some MORE on the official mound.
My kids WANT to watch baseball very badly, but every time we try to watch a game, we all get frustrated and turn it off after about three innings. We went to a game last year that went 3:20. There were four runs scored, and only about sixteen total baserunners. We left the park at 10:25 p.m. on a school night. Yes, I have a problem with the length of games.
I’ll add, everyone on Fangraphs is a baseball fan, most of us spend a fair amount of time on it, we’re here to discuss it in the off-season. I’m heading to Florida to watch some spring training games next week.
Commentators here are about the least likely people to say the game is too slow. Manfred wants people who aren’t all that interested to watch, he wants kids to watch games on school nights. From his point of view, the game is too slow.
I’ve turned off games I care about in the Eastern time zone so I could go to sleep. I live in the Central time zone so I’ve got an extra hour over the locals. That should not happen. The game is too slow.
Three hours for a nine inning game is far too slow. And three hours for 9 innings is now officially a FASTER THAN AVERAGE GAME! Crap.
I wonder if having pitch clocks in the minors will make the pitchers internalize the clock anyway, so eventually they will just pitch faster because they have been conditioned to do so.