The Astros’ Doomsday Scenario
The Houston Astros won the World Series last year. They had a really good chance of winning it again this year. Unfortunately for the team, a really good chance in the playoffs still topped out below a 50/50 shot, and they ran into a really good Red Sox team that played well. Winning back-to-back championships is hard. No team has done it since the Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000. Even making it to the World Series in back-to-back seasons is difficult. Since that Yankees’ team made it to the series again in 2001, only the Phillies in 2008 and 2009, the Rangers in 2010 and 2011, and the Royals in 2014 and 2015 have participated in the World Series in back-to-back years. The odds were in the Astros’ favor and simultaneously stacked against them. Always take the field.
The Astros are incredibly well set up for the future. In Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa, the team has not only three legitimate stars but potential MVP candidates. This 2018 season was not a good one for the 24-year-old Correa, whose lower-back problems sidelined him at times and rendered him an average player when he was in the lineup. Consider how well the Astros persevered, though, despite lacking the services of six-win player. Kris Bryant of the Cubs had a similar season, for example, and the Cubs’ offense struggled to score runs, eventually losing in the Wild Card Game and firing their hitting coach. The Dodgers were huge favorites in the National League West. Without Corey Seager, however, they struggled to 90 wins and a 163rd game for the division after acquiring a similar player for half the season in the form of Manny Machado.
Alex Bregman emerged as a star, Jose Altuve put together a very good season despite his own injury issues, and George Springer turned in another good season. On offense, the team took a step back from its MLB-best 123 wRC+ in 2017, but still put together the fourth-best offense (110 wRC+) in the majors. The downturn in offense made little difference, as the pitching stepped up. A full year of ace Justin Verlander plus a trade for co-ace Gerrit Cole paced the team with 13 combined WAR, while Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr., and Charlie Morton all put together above average seasons. Those five pitchers made 152 of the team’s 162 starts. The rotation’s 22.5 WAR placed them just behind Cleveland’s and meant the bullpen had to cover just 499.2 innings. Houston didn’t have a problem with middle relievers because they never had to use them.
Heading into next season, nearly every major contributor is back, with Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton the notable exceptions and Evan Gattis, Marwin Gonzalez, Brian McCann, and Tony Sipp also set to become free agents. To help mitigate some of those losses, Houston can turn to two of the top prospects in baseball, Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley. The 21-year-old Tucker struggled in a brief callup to the majors but crushed Triple-A pitching and should be ready for a bigger role next season. Whitley missed the first part of the season with a suspension while his second half was truncated by a lat injury, but the 21-year-old righty did pitch well when he played, and he could find himself a role on next year’s team as well. Josh James emerged late in this season and is a good candidate for a role either in the rotation or back in the bullpen. Prospects J.B. Bukauskas, Corbin Martin, and Cionel Perez might be in a position to help the team at some point next year. Garrett Stubbs could be part of the solution at catcher.
The Astros are well positioned to repeat as AL West champs without making any significant additions. Even with arbitration raises, their payroll commitments look to be around $130 million for 2019, which is $30 million less than they were at the beginning of the 2018 campaign. For a team that drew nearly 3 million fans — 580,000 more than 2017 — in a very large Houston market, $160 million is hardly as high as the team could go if they wanted. They’ll need starting pitching and could bring back Keuchel or Morton or both, sign one of the other available free agents, or make a trade with their considerable prospect depth.
All of this is to say that the Astros will probably be very good again next season. But it is possible they won’t be. This is how it could happen:
- Injuries to Altuve and Correa linger into next season, and the players are slightly compromised. Maybe they don’t fall off a cliff completely, but perhaps they can’t quite play up to the level expected of them. Alex Bregman is great, but a 7.6 WAR season is hard to repeat for anybody. Compare the Astros trio of Altuve, Bregman, and Correa to the Nationals’ Harper, Rendon, and Turner. Sometimes it doesn’t all come together, and sometimes it just isn’t enough. A rebound from George Springer provides some insulation, but it’s hardly a guarantee. The Astros’ big three combined for 16.3 WAR in 2017 and 14 WAR in 2018. A drop to 10-12 wins isn’t unfathomable.
- Yuli Gurriel and Josh Reddick continue their declines. In 201,7 the pair hit for a 119 and 128 wRC+, respectively, and combined for five wins. This season, they hit 107 and 99 wRC+, respectively, and combined for 2.3 WAR. Gurriel will be 35 years old and Reddick turns 32 in February. Expecting better in 2019 is unreasonable and worse is a more likely outcome.
- Kyle Tucker still isn’t ready. Assuming the Astros clear a spot for Tucker, they will have Springer in center field with Reddick in right. If Tucker doesn’t play well, the Astros might get poor production out of two of the three outfield positions.
- Justin Verlander wears down. Over the last three years, Verlander has logged nearly 700 innings between the regular season and the playoffs from the age of 33 to 35 years old. Over the last 30 years, Kevin Brown, Roger Clemens, Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Kenny Rogers, Curt Schilling, and David Wells had similar workloads and performance at that age, including a good age-35 season. Those seven went from an average WAR of 6.3 in their age-35 seasons to 3.3 at 36 years old, with only Wells approximating his performance from the season before. Verlander looks great, but even the great ones have trouble sustaining their performance every year.
- Rookies and free agents can’t get the job done in the rotation. In Kuechel and Morton, the team has to replace nearly seven wins in the rotation. Expecting Cole or Verlander to be any better isn’t reasonable, and it isn’t entirely clear how many innings McCullers is capable of throwing. The Astros had no significant pitching injuries this season. Things don’t normally go that way.
- The bullpen just isn’t good. It happens.
The Astros were a 103-win team in the standings and on paper last season with the team not benefiting from any good or bad luck when it comes to sequencing. They will probably project close to 95 wins next season, as well, but that’s not a guarantee of continued success. The Nationals were projected to win 92 games and finished 10 games below that mark. Cleveland was projected to win 96 games and won only 91. If Houston had won 88 games this year, they would not have made the playoffs. The Astros are probably going to have another really good season next year, but don’t take this one for granted, and don’t be shocked if things fall apart. It isn’t likely, but the possibility is there.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
The Astros couldn’t steal signs after Game 1 since the media and Alex Cora were on to them. That might factor into next season too. It factored in the last 4 games.
This assumes 1) There isn’t constant cat and mouse games regarding stealing signs 2) That the Astros are only good because they steal signs.
I have beachfront property in Montana to sell you if you believe either.
It’s not waterfront property, but if you are a fan of waterSHEDs, and who is not, Montana has Triple Divide Peak, which drains into Hudson Bay, the Atlantic, and the Pacific.
Everything about the above statement is fake. You do not truly believe them and your no boy toy model.
The Red Sox only last year were fined by MLB for wearing Apple Watches on the field to relay signs. Now, Red Sox Nation wants to get on their moral high horse because someone affiliated with the Astros was videoing their dugout FROM THE STANDS–a public area–with his cell phone?
lol @ the hypocrisy and moral preening from Bawston
MLB dismissed the charges for good reason.
Yeah, that’s why the Astros won 103 games and beat the Red Sox four out of seven games during the regular season. Because some guy Jim Crane knows was pointing a cell phone at your dugout! lol @ this stupidity coming from some of the Bawston fans and some of the salty Cleveland/Oakland fans.
everyone owes handsomeboymodel an apology for all the downvotes. looks like they were indeed caught cheating per other fangraphs article.
“We can answer at least a couple of Passan’s questions here. First, there is no official rule that bars sign-stealing. There’s no such provision in the Major League Rules, and there’s no such rule in the Official Baseball Rules. There’s also no provision in either concerning the use of technology to monitor another team. In short, there isn’t a rule covering this. David Schoenfield summarized the state of the rules in this area last year, after the Red Sox and Yankees famously tangled over the Apple Watch incident.”
At worst, the Astros are no worse than the Red Sox.
The idea that the Astros only won Game 1 because of a cell phone is also pretty absurd. In game 2-5, their pitching was inconsistent and the offense was inconsistent. Verlander and the bullpen in contrast pitched well in Game 1 and the bats showed up BUT ONLY at the very end. How did “stealing signs” (as they’re blindly accused of doing) help Verlander dominate them in Game 1? How did them “stealing signs” force Chris Sale to walk hitter after hitter and pitch like a hot mess?
By this logic of yours, the Red Sox only won their division last year because of Apple Watches.
I don’t think Reddick and Gurriel’s success has a ton of bearing on how the Astros do next year. Already their best lineup probably has Kemp & White in it over those two, so it’s hard to imagine their success (or lack thereof) moving the needle much on the Astros’ fortunes.
Not to mention potential contributors like JD Davis and Yordan Alvarez.
In the rotation, they could tandem start McHugh/Peacock/Framber/Whitley to fill two slots, if needed. Bukauskas, Armenteros, maybe Paulino could move into the back of the bullpen.
Which Paulino is this? David went to the Blue Jays in the Giles deal. Felipe is pitching for Sugar Land in the independent Atlantic League. Ronny played his last innings in the Mexican League last year, and was a catcher, besides.
🙂
thing that’s interesting with the group of 7 similars is that of those 7- 4 guys threw at least 40 innings more than Verlander- with Schilling and Brown throwing at least 75 more than Verlander. That’s a lot more innings than Verlander.
Also one of the bigger droppers in Lowe didn’t play in the postseason in those 3 years.
Also, it’s interesting the one that was most close to him in innings- Wells- had the smallest drop….
I think you can expect some positive regression (collectively) from Altuve, Springer, and Correa, and some negative regression from Bregman. Losing Gattis and McCann are not big deals. Losing Keuchel and Morton (if Morton leaves; I’m not convinced he will) will hurt. Losing some bullpen pieces will hurt. If Kyle Tucker bombs, Tony Kemp looks like a keeper. If they keep Keuchel or find a spin-rate darling to rebuild I think this team should be the favorite again next year in their division.
The Astros’ problems mostly begin after next season, when Cole and Verlander’s contracts are up, and then when Altuve is on the decline and getting paid $29 million a year with a no-trade clause, and Correa and Springer become a free agents or they pay him a trillion dollars. If Astros’ fans want to worry, I don’t think 2019 is the time to do it. They’ll be right in the middle of it again next year.
Just to follow up on this–I would expect the Astros to try and buy low on Aaron Sanchez, Sonny Gray, and anyone else with good spin and decent velocity who hasn’t had results lately. And if Garrett Richards ever tries to make a comeback, the Astros will be interested in that too. These guys, if the Astros fix them, aren’t going to replace Gerrit Cole or Justin Verlander. But they just might be the pitcher they need to fill out the rotation. So I think they’ll be fine in 2019. It’s 2020–when Cole and Verlander become free agents (as well as age eroding their skills)–that the problems are going to crop up.
So the Astros should still be good next year.
Unless their players are not good next year.
Nice article.
Possible reasons players might not be good next year:
-Injuries
-Players play not as good
-Young players not good yet
-Old players no longer good
– Baseball baseballs.
I sure hope that an organization that has Gurriel and Osuna on the roster fails
The problem with this kind of rooting is that you very quickly run out of teams to root for. The Yankees are out because of Chapman; the Red Sox are gone because of Wright; the Twins are out because of Sano; the Cubs are gone because of Russell; and on and on. Pretty soon, you’re just rooting for every team to fail because each team happens to have one or two bad actors. And that just turns what should be an enjoyable pastime into an excessively vitriolic exercise in schaudenfreud.
Well, they did go out of their way to acquire Osuna after his behavior was known. I think it’s natural to want a team to not see the benefits from that, however that happens.
Sure. But you can still root more narrowly for that outcome without hoping that the entire organization fails. As someone without any particular allegiance to either team, for example, I would have been perfectly fine with (1) Osuna giving up 5 runs in game 3, and (2) the Astros still winning the series.
The Cubs and the Yankees both “went out of their way” to acquire Chapman after his behavior was already known. Stop being a hypocrite by exclusively picking on the Astros for something every team does.
If Osuna ended up on the Padres, it wouldn’t even be a news story.
Is Osuna never supposed to touch a baseball again ever because he made a mistake?
As an Asian American, I will always root against Gurriel and Houston Astros for that standing ovation he received. Always.
Keep fighting hate with hate.
Chino simply means ‘chinese’ or more generally ‘east asian’ in gurriel’s native language, spanish–it isn’ at all insulting, it’s just the normal word. When spanish speakers use it in english, people who don’t know spanish often interpret it as racist (historically it”s a spanish word, not an english word). I have no idea why english speakers developed this strange interpretation, maybe because they have the (racist) idea that spanish-speaking people are racists, so by this ‘reasoning’, spanish words referring ethnicities must be racist. As a member of a minority group, you might have a little understanding about other minority groups. What he said can be interpreted as racist but calling him racist because he used a spanish word and people gave it an (incorrect) english interpretation can also be interpreted as racist.
Gurriel stretched back the skin on the sides of his face to make his eyes appear narrow. There is video of him doing that. Is that a normal, non-racist part of his culture?
And he was applauded upon his suspension. It shouldn’t be difficult to understand why some fans would take offense to the entire situation.
Suggesting that a fan is racist because he was offended is just flat out ridiculous.
I mean…the Spanish basketball team did the exact same thing at the Beijing Olympics.
They genuinely don’t get it – and Gurriel made a sincere apology when he learned the implication of his actions.
We did it all the time when we were kids.
“Chinese, Japanese, dirty knees…”
I guess my parents should have been put in jail for allowing us to do that, eh?
Is it “racist” to notice that Asians have epicanthal folds and to identify them in such way when trying to distinguish them from others (particularly when English isn’t your first language)?
Everyone is so darned sensitive about race in 2018.
“Gurriel stretched back the skin on the sides of his face to make his eyes appear narrow. There is video of him doing that. Is that a normal, non-racist part of his culture?”
Yes. In fact, as someone who’s lived in East Asia, I can tell you that East Asians do it to each other in their own countries.
Believe it or not, most of the world (outside of the insane West) doesn’t view what Gurriel did as some major moral infraction that needs to be examined and punished. I guess because they’re not insane.
You have done a superb job digging yourself a hole.
It’s about intent, regardless of who you are or where you’re from. His intent was clear to anyone who isn’t delusional.
And this comes from a guy who has lived in Southeast Asia and Latin America, among other places.
Oh, it’s absolutely about intent.
Cuba isn’t Brazil or Mexico, both of which have experienced notable East Asian immigration.
Dude had no idea that doing that was racist, because they don’t actually have Asian people in Cuba. Same for calling the guy a “Chino.”
Meanwhile, no one was going to explain it to him…because why on Earth would that come up organically in a conversation, haha?
That’s why he so horrified when people explained it to him.
Wow—this is an all-time ludicrous take. Must be English and white folk drumming up the Gurriel is racist thing—not Gurriel pulling slant eyes after hitting off a Japanese pitcher.
Also Milwaukee cheering Hader.
“Also Milwaukee cheering Hader.”
Yeah, how dare they! He should be unpersoned for life!
“As an Asian American, I will always root against Gurriel and Houston Astros for that standing ovation he received. Always.”
Big loss, there.
1) Asian Americans are some of the most “racist” people I’ve ever encountered. And Asians in their own countries (I used to live in East Asia) are extremely “racist.” They probably think a brown Cuban like Gurriel is a subhuman. So people in glass houses…
2) Gurriel is a good guy. He didn’t mean to be offensive. Does his intent not count for anything? Are you that petty?
3) Do you expect all foreigners/international players to be up to speed on what’s considered politically correct on the American west coast in 2018? It’s difficult enough for people who’ve lived here for their entire lives to avoid the ever increasing PC landmines that liberals are constantly laying out there. Again, your own people in Asia are worthy of a whole lot more contempt than Gurriel by your own goofy standards. Gurriel inadvertently offended Asians and apologized and tipped his helmet to Darvish (who forgave him even though Gurriel really did nothing wrong, anyways). Asians in Asia GO OUT OF THEIR WAY to offend others different from them.
4) Gurriel can’t speak English well or really at all. That may have contributed to his non-verbal gesturing where he squinted his eyes in the first place. Again, no regard for context and intent is given, here. You’re just trying to make a good man into a bad man because he offended you.
5) Does it wound your ego that much “as an Asian American” to know that others notice that Asians have epicanthal folds? Are you people that ashamed of how you look to the point that when others distinguish Asian features from their own that it’s automatically “offensive” irrespective of context?
6) People offend me all the time. I don’t automatically assume that just because someone offends me that they’re piece of garbage the way you apparently do.
You have some thin skin, boyo.
You accuse other commenters of having thin skin, yet here you are posting comment after comment, with excuse after excuse about how Gurriel’s actions weren’t racist and suggesting everyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot.
Take a good look in the mirror (without stretching your eyes).
Don’t forget the Rangers with Matt Bush (who has still never made a sincere apology for what he did).
The thing is…Chapman and Wright had domestic incidents, but neither hit their wife.
Shooting up your garage is obviously not an acceptable anger management strategy…but it’s better than putting your wife in the hospital, a la Reyes, or whatever the hell Osuna did to merit an even longer suspension.
Gurriel shouldn’t be mentioned in the same sentence as Osuna, though.
Dude was wildly ignorant, but not malicious (and no, “Chino” was not intended as a racial slur – it refers to anyone of Asian descent in the vernacular of most Latin American countries).
Wildly “ignorant” of Western PC insanity? Yeah….you don’t say….
To that, I say good for Gurriel and good for the Cuban people (in that respect, anyways).
Most of the world is “ignorant” of how pathological we are when it comes to political correctness whether we’re talking about race or some other “sensitive” subject. The rest of the world outside of the West doesn’t have time for such nonsense.
As far as Osuna goes….do you think he should be banned? Should he never get to pitch again? If you think he should get a second chance, then why beef on the Astros for giving it to him? It seems pretty draconian to me to ban a guy from baseball forever for one domestic dispute where charges were actually dropped.
People in this country are taught to hand wring incessantly even if it all makes little sense. Everyone has to grandstand and express their outrage but few stop and check their own hypocrisy.
Just like how the Red Sox and their fanbase are now on this moral high horse about how the Astros “cheated” when it was only last year that the Red Sox literally got fined for cheating for using Apple Watches on the field of play; they were also caught with pine tar all over their forearms in this last ALCS. People in glass houses, people in glass houses…
I mean…Yuli called Darvish, in tears, to apologize, once someone explained why it was offensive, haha.
Not sure he’s the “anti-PC” warrior you’re looking for, hon.
And, frankly, I’d be fine with Osuna never pitching again.
Just like I would have been fine with Greg Hardy never playing football again.
Just like I’ll be fine if Jabari Bird never plays basketball again.
Just like how I’m glad Paddy Jackson and Stuart Olding will never be capped for Ireland again.
He didn’t shoot up a garage, like Chapman did.
He beat up his wife. Not sure how much more there is to talk about…
“I mean…Yuli called Darvish, in tears, to apologize, once someone explained why it was offensive, haha.”
Not sure he’s the “anti-PC” warrior you’re looking for, hon.”
People like yourself that have no reading comprehension are no position to condescend to more thoughtful people like myself. “hon”? lol okay, bud…
I never attributed my views on the insanity of political correctness here in the U.S. or Europe to Gurriel or even the Cuban people. Those are MY views. I merely stated a fact: That Cubans and people in Latin America and East Asia are (understandably) ignorant of all these sorts of speech codes and faux pas gestures that we overreact to here and that often ruin lives (unjustifiably).
Do you think it’s reasonable for MLB to import all these players from around the world with different cultures and different standards and different experiences regarding “sensitivity” and not expect an accident like this from time to time? I don’t. Not in the slightest. And when the inevitable does happen, do you think treating Gurriel as if he’s the Grand Wizard of the Latin version of the KKK (as many are apt to do) is appropriate? I don’t.
Gurriel doesn’t even speak English and had been in the country barely a year. Yet, people act like Western political correctness is some universal standard of morality that defines a person as being either “good” or “bad.” It’s insane.
As someone who has actually lived abroad and traveled to other countries, I can tell you that you projecting your moral standards onto foreigners is ridiculously smug and thoughtless and (ironically) bigoted in itself.
Of course Gurriel was in tears….you’re not telling me anything I didn’t know. That was my point–he didn’t intend to offend. He’s a good guy. You yourself seem to realize that Gurriel is a well-meaning person and yet you’re giving credence to a poster on this site that is slandering his entire character. That’s messed up.
The person here who I think is a terrible person is Mr. “as an Asian American” who a lot of people are sitting here stroking; he is sitting here getting off to his own bathwater and smugly condemning Gurriel as a person for accidentally offending him and other overly sensitive Asian Americans because he wasn’t up to speed on how this garbage works here.
If you read that as me characterizing Gurriel as some “anti-PC warrior,” you simply have no reading comprehension. I’m the anti-PC warrior here who recognizes that Gurriel is one many unfairly tarred and feathered people who have fallen victim to this insanity.
“And, frankly, I’d be fine with Osuna never pitching again. ”
“He didn’t shoot up a garage, like Chapman did.”
lol
You must be a Yankees/Cubs fan. That is some really tortured logic. Hitting your wife–regardless of how severe or the context– should be a lifetime ban but decorating your garage with a lethal object is “meh” by comparison.
We don’t even know what Osuna really actually did and the charges were dropped.
This context about Gurriel is interesting. I’m glad to hear he was so contrite and apologetic. In a perfect world, perhaps ignorance would be a reasonable defense in circumstances like this, but—particularly on such a big stage and with kids watching—I still think punishment was appropriate. Unfortunately for Gurriel, the dishonest will often claim ignorance. And, of course, good people can and do do bad things frequently. A bisexual ex of mine called me on a transphobic comment I made a while back, and my defense was basically that: I’m a kind, thoughtful, generous person; I didn’t mean to hurt or disrespect anyone; etc. But that doesn’t change that my comment was ignorant and unnecessary, and that I deserved censure (even if it took me a while to admit as much).
As for second chances, I think people can reasonably disagree on this, but here’s where I’m at. Osuna hasn’t accepted responsibility for his actions. In fact, his lawyer specifically stated that his acceptance of the peace bond, and of MLB’s punishment, was not an admission of guilt. Osuna was also quoted as saying he was looking forward to moving past the incident, which is a framing that makes me very uncomfortable. Perhaps, for him, “moving past” the incident means continuing to attend counselling, donating money to women’s charities, exploring opportunities for restorative justice with the victim if she’s amenable, and generally holding himself accountable in public with patience and grace. But I doubt it.
In light of that, I would be very uncomfortable with my team trading for or signing him. And I don’t think it’s fair for a team to put its fans in that position. I think one of the reasons issues like domestic violence in sports, or the Kaepernick protests, have ignited so much pushback is that people come to sports for escape. This is valid, of course—it’s true for me, and there’s certainly a lot worth escaping from out there. But for me, navigating that desire for escape doesn’t mean ignoring what I think are important issues. This means that if my team trades for Osuna, I have to decide whether I’m OK with it. And, quite frankly, neither continuing to cheer for my team with a domestic abuser aboard nor abandoning it is palatable.
So while I disagree with banning domestic abusers from the game outright, I would like to see individual teams make the decision not to trade for or sign them. That would be an effective ban, which is not ideal, but that’s where the accountability piece comes in. In my opinion, anyone who’s offered a sincere apology and demonstrated a willingness to learn and grow deserves a second chance. (I hope most of us can agree on that.) In that case, there would only be an effective zero tolerance policy for domestic abusers who are unwilling to accept responsibility for their actions. We also get the positive feedback from our teams saying “thanks, but no thanks.” (I’m a Jays fan, and I was pleased to see them jettison Osuna, though I would have preferred they cut him completely.)
BigMrkts, I hope this doesn’t sound like grandstanding and hypocrisy. In my opinion, there aren’t really any easy answers.
Look man, people offend me all the time ON PURPOSE. I’m told by them to just deal with it. And I do. If you go to different parts of the world, you can offend different people for different reasons.
I don’t get what the big deal is about describing the epicanthal folds on an Asian persons eyes are. There was nothing malicious behind it. Gurriel himself was remorseful because it hurt Darvish’s feelings; and that’s fine. But I think it’s pretty ridiculous that it’s even considered to be some mortal sin in the first place. I obviously can’t change that perception and no I don’t go around doing it myself because I don’t deliberately try to offend people. But my honest thoughts are that it’s pretty damned fragile to make such a moral spectacle out of what Gurriel did. Stand-up comics make more offensive…err…”honest”…assessments about race all the time and are celebrated. It’s very hypocritical. Our whole culture disgusts me with its hypocrisy sometimes.
“So while I disagree with banning domestic abusers from the game outright, I would like to see individual teams make the decision not to trade for or sign them. ”
I think you’re trying to have your cake and eat it too. Also, not all “domestic abusers” are equal. People are being lazy. If the Canadian government was willing to let him enter a peace bond (as opposed to sending him to prison), I don’t see what’s so outrageous about allowing him to earn his means the best way he knows how to again.
People are more forgiving of adulterers than they are of someone like Osuna. Yet, we don’t even have any context for what happened to Osuna. Did she hit him first? How badly did he hit her? How much does she fear him now? Were they both drunk? No one knows but everyone seems to know he shouldn’t ever play baseball again for this first time offense that we’re not too sure about that occurred in his 23rd year of life. Okay….
“A bisexual ex of mine called me on a transphobic comment I made a while back, and my defense was basically that: I’m a kind, thoughtful, generous person; I didn’t mean to hurt or disrespect anyone; etc. But that doesn’t change that my comment was ignorant and unnecessary, and that I deserved censure (even if it took me a while to admit as much). ”
As someone who used to work in the gay district of the city in which I live, it honestly wouldn’t shock me if your friend makes “anti-cis” comments all the time and then rationalizes his own hypocrisy.
You have nothing to be sorry about for being “transphobic,” bro. I don’t harbor any ill-will towards people who are sexually confused (and their nature is certainly confused and in conflict with itself), but that doesn’t mean I’m going to allow them to put me inside their own moral frame or that I’m going to agree with their metaphysical picture of the world.
Maybe you should learn to think for yourself? You know you didn’t do anything wrong yet you haven’t seemed to have really examined WHY it wasn’t wrong so that you can defend yourself properly from his childish attacks on you. You were thus left defenseless because he could call you a name like “transphobic.” Yet your own gut tells you it wasn’t really wrong. Rather than think for yourself, you seem to let others bully you. That’s a shame. I don’t think you did anything wrong. Normal people are repulsed by sexual behavior that is not typical to their own nature (even if they pretend not to be). It’s a natural reaction like a gag reflex. That doesn’t mean you hate the person. I think anal sex is disgusting. Sorry not sorry. They used to just want “tolerance”; now that they have that, they want me to actually be into what they’re into to a certain extent. No!
I must say, I’ve never been my life been told I need to think for myself! I think I’m a pretty thoughtful, independent person. But I also recognize the limits of my own experiences, and that as a cis white guy, my perspective has been overrepresented throughout western history and that I could benefit from listening from more marginalized folks a little more.
I agree that my ex (a woman, incidentally) could have been more constructive about the affair. But that’s not really the point. I certainly understand why she was upset. And I have the maturity to set aside my feelings about her tone and examine her arguments, which I thought were valid.
Our gut gets it wrong sometimes, you know? We were raised in a pretty white-centric, cis-centric, patriarchal society. Of course I’ve internalized a lot of that. I think it shows a lot of personal growth to be able to acknowledge and work actively to combat that.
Your point about people offending you on purpose gets at what I like to call the “raise your kids” divide. I don’t have any, but I would absolutely raise my children to, as best they could, turn the other cheek, endure insults, unwarranted criticism, and even bullying with tenacity and grace, and develop the kind of resilience we all need to survive in a world that can be pretty shitty sometimes. But I would never demand those kinds of qualities of a stranger. What right do I have to tell someone what they can or should be offended by?
Re: Osuna, the Canadian government pursued the peace bond because the victim didn’t want to return to Toronto from Mexico to testify. It was not because of a lack of evidence. Furthermore, MLB saw enough there to suspend Osuna for almost half a season. It’s true that we don’t have all the details, and I suppose there could be mitigating factors, but I think it’s reasonable to infer based on what we do know that the offense was serious.
You’ve engaged in quite a bit of hyperbole here, but I want to make clear, again, that I’m not advocating Osuna not play baseball ever again—just that he take ownership of his actions as the cost of continuing to do so.
Yeah, I’m fine with Vick playing again. Dude owned his shit, and put in the work to become a better person.
The issue is guys like Hardy and Osuna, who think they can do whatever the fuck they want to other humans, because their owed something by being good at sportsball.
If you’re ignoring the difference between adding a player who was only available and came at a reduced cost *because* of an incident and a team who simply employs a guy who was charged, I don’t think you’ve considered things thoroughly.
Maybe some people consider the main issue to be the mere employment of anyone ever charged with domestic abuse, but I take much more issue with those teams that put themselves in a position to benefit from it.
Should he be banned for life? If say the Cincinnati Reds or the San Diego Padres or the Kansas City Royals signed him instead do you think there would have been the media drama surrounding this story? I don’t. SOME team was going to benefit from his bad mojo discount once the Blue Jays decided they didn’t want him and MLB cleared him to play. That it happened to be the Astros is a convenient narrative for hypocritical Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers fans who want to pretend that they represent the side of all that is light and holy and that the Astros are evil and toying with dark forces.
The Canadian government obviously thought the incident was minor enough to drop and allowed him to enter a peace bond. Yet, people want to think the Astros are wicked, wicked, wicked for giving him a second chance or for benefiting from a trade over it? No one twisted the Blue Jays’ arms, here.
The Canadian government dropped it for the same reason the NC government dropped Hardy’s case – the victim left the state, and wouldn’t testify.
It has nothing to do with how major or minor the case was.
Great article. Personally i see the astros falling and could be in big trouble next season after losing core pieces to FA and really in big trouble in 2019 the season after next. Computers cant tell the makeup of the clubhouse. Losing some guys can really crush the chemistry and i could see that potentially happening here. They’ve gone off the deep end analytically and it will bite them imo. Remember when they fired all there pro scouts? ha dumb.
Everyone thinks the astros got some magic potion for development, but reality is Lunhow traded for everyone or acquired them. Verlander, Cole, Reddick, Gurriel (who they paid 50$MM lol), Mccann, Maldonado, list goes on and on. They cant develop an ace.
Lunhow inherited springer and alutve, and had #1 or #2 picks to get correa and bregman. They really havent done anything player development wise or do anything great other than they’ve pieced together great talent from other organizations through trades and acq.
Lunhow whiffed on their #1 draft pick Mark Appel who never made the bigs, wasted 1st round pick on brady aiken who didnt sign, traded daz cameron, and now trying to trade kyle tucker as he hasn’t performed in the bigs. Aj reed not doing well in bigs. Couldn’t develop JD Martinez, traded him. Their player development is not what people think it is, actually its kind of poor.
Insane analytic approach where the computers tell Hinch when to use the bathroom will come back to bite them….book it. You have to have a happy medium, a blend of scouting/analytics, not just analytics which is the astros.
Red Sox were clearly the better team, and in fact were so much better they pretty much swept them on the road. I just don’t see how the astros will get past the alcs (yanks/redsox) again next year as they will be worse, and probably not past the alds.
Please down vote me, i want to see how many i can get
Okay
You ever go on your favorite team’s Facebook page, read the comments, and immediately sign out filled with angst and regret?
Well, here you go.
Chris Correa, is that you?
I am sure you thought the Cubs where a 10 year dynasty too. Next will be a different year than this one and you can’t just expect the same results.
The Astros beat the Red Sox 4 games to 3 during the regular season. (And really almost beat them 5 games to 2 if not for a botched call on an Altuve slide at home plate that actually became a big story.) The Red Sox were not “clearly” the better team. They played better for four games. Congrats to them. But some of you have selective short term memory issues.
The Nationals were a shoo-in for the NL East this year, so sure. Without looking anything up, there seems to be one team each year that’s great on paper, and has been great in the recent past, but then that just doesn’t produce. I think multiple of the things you listed would have to happen for the Astros to not make the playoffs. But it’ll be some good team that doesn’t. And again, the Nationals.
There’s a ton of variance due to issues outside of the field of play but the Mets could also sneak in there. They have talent in a lot of key places that got better last year, a strong rotation and (in theory) an ability to spend to improve their bullpen and get another bat in the lineup.
Now, this assumes that the Wilpons get out of their own way (ha), the GM is allowed to do what they need to in order to compete (see the first point) and they remain healthy which they have not been able to do.
As a Mets fan, the mets make my head spin.
or McCullers TJ…
It’s his obsession with the curve that is a problem way before TJ. Walk walk strike out and he thinks it is working to throw it that much
Well, I mean, there’s the whole 40% K rate versus his curveball, and opponent batting average of .179 and opponent wRC+ of 51, but other than that you may be right in that his curveball isn’t really working.
It’s actually the fastball that is putting strain on his elbow, supposedly. Not the curve.
“Those five pitchers made 152 of the team’s 162 starts.”
This is probably the key sentence in the article. Teams that keep their top 4-5 starters healthy all year tend to win plenty of games over the long haul.
Not just healthy, but good enough to keep throwing them out there. There is a lot of survivor bias in there.
Reminds me of the 2016 Blue Jays. Basically had four 3+ win starters, Sanchez won the ERA title, and their starting 5 all stayed healthy.
Now the Astros have better pitching depth and position players to withstand the same type of drop off the Jays experienced the next year, but the nature of pitchers suggests they won’t be so lucky again.
Craig is correct. But really, the bottom line is that lots of things can happen bad even for a baseball team as talented and well-built as the Astros are. But barring something surprising, the Sox, Astros, Yankees, and Indians remain the teams to beat in the AL next year because they have the best talent in the league.
Correa only just turned 24. He’s not 25.
After a slow start last year the Cubs struggled to a division title before being extinguished by a superior Dodgers team in 5 games in the LCS. The Astros, (Keuchel I think) when asked about WS “hangover” replied, “We’re not the Cubs. I think our players are better”. This year the Astros win the division title before bowing out in 5 games to a superior Red Sox team in the LCS. Baseball is a harsh mistress, especially playoff baseball.
I still think there’s something to what keuchel said. There was a clear feeliing in the 2017 nlcs that the dodgers really were far the better team. I just don’t get that feeling with the 2018 alcs. True the result was 4-1, true the astros were outscored 27-14 in the last 4 games, but i don’t think that too many people think that the red sox are far the better team. My reaction to the last 4 games is more ‘wtf just happened’?
The results are the results. Once a team wins a championship the expectation is WS or bust. This may be unfair to the players but that’s the reality as long as the team remains in their window. Keuchel’s comment shows the naivete of someone who hadn’t yet attempted to defend a WS title. Talent alone isn’t enough. There’s injuries, regression, other teams getting better and just plain luck. The Astros had a great season and it might have been enough in 2015 or 2016 but in 2018 it’s a disappointment for them and their fans
No, Keuchel’s comment was plenty justified. You’re just hung up on the fact that both teams lost in the LCS 4-1. But that’s a pretty superficial evaluation of what the Cubs did in 2017 versus what the Astros did in 2018.
I’m not hung up on playoff results but the Astros and Cubs certainly are. 103 wins, 92 wins; none of that matters in October as long as you win your division. Those teams are built for October and they’re in their window. Both teams went to back to the LCS and both lost. Keuchel made his comment before he experienced having to defend; now that he knows, I’m not sure he would double down. And feel free to make the argument that the Astros are better than Cubs, I wouldn’t disagree but do you think either organization or their fans are satisfied “Best Team on Paper”?
“I’m not hung up on playoff results but the Astros and Cubs certainly are. 103 wins, 92 wins; none of that matters in October as long as you win your division.”
It sure as hell matters when you want to compare the 2017 Cubs to the 2018 Astros!
The 2017 Cubs underachieved the entire 2017 season. They had the WS “hangover.” They were “tired.” The 2018 Astros won more games than the franchise ever had in its history with two very good teams in its division chasing them.
Keuchel was/is right. They’re not the Cubs. That they lost in the ALCS doesn’t disprove any of the stark differences between the clubs.
I wasn’t comparing the 2017 Cubs to the 2018 Astros and neither was Keuchel. He had no idea what the Cubs had to deal with in trying to repeat. Now he knows better.
They won what, 10 more games than the 2017 Cubs did? This is such a tired take. I can’t imagine you really believe it.
And the Astros played in a harder division with other teams worthy of winning the division. The 2017 NL Central Division the Cubs won was not much different from the 2018 NL Eastern Division or the 2018 AL Central Division–there for whoever wanted to play above .500 ball and take it.
The Cubs BARELY got through the ALDS against Washington last year. And it was an ugly series where you felt like NEITHER team deserved to advance.
The Astros blasted through the ALDS against Cleveland (and its great pitching staff) this year. It was a cakewalk.
The 2017 Cubs won 92 games and were .500 for much of the year. Their division was also weak and had no serious challengers.
The 2018 Astros won 103 games and were in first the bulk of the season while fending off a great Seattle team and a great Oakland team.
There’s plenty of merit to what Keuchel said even if the Astros lost in five to Boston in the ALCS. The Stros wore the crown much better than the Cubs did.
What’s up with the copy? FYI, “oldCorrea” and “despite lacking the services of six-win player”.
This is the Astros title window, so GM Jeff Luhnow needs to be proactive fixing roster holes with big league players and not turn to prospects (especially hitters) who have for the most part looked unready, with only Kemp really solidifying a role. White was good as well but I see him as a Gattis-like part time player.
The biggest hole as it has been for the last two years is a mid-order run producer, with the front office seeing a need and being close on Encarnacion two years ago. While hitters like Gurriel, Gonzalez and Reddick have contributed, they have been streaky and as we saw when three of the four core players were hurt, the offense struggled to score runs. Someone like Nelson Cruz would help, but it would be better to look for someone younger.
Also, catcher needs to be addressed, you assume they’d make a push for Realmuto, but it remains to be seen if the Astros can land him without giving up any of the top 3 prospects, which they’re rightfully protecting as they are central to Astros plans to replace departing FAs in future years. Wilson Ramos could work as a two year stopgap. I’d prefer resigning Maldonado as backup than going with Stassi (problems working with pitchers and good first half at the plate but fell off) or Stubbs.
Pitching is less worrisome, the Astros are going into an offseason with their best relief core in a number of years, and the only glaring need is a high-leverage left handed to tandem with Pressly at setup.
I could see them replacing Keuchel and Morton with internal options and a similar Charlie Morton-like signing of a less expensive pitcher they think they can fix with their analytical tools. McHugh, James, Peacock, and a number of prospects fill in an enviable group of cost controlled pitchers, who can also help in the pen.
Of all the free agents and players with options who will mostly be let go, Marwin Gonzalez seems the toughest to replace, in the outfield, the Astros are set, with Kemp, Tucker and Marisnick. The infield flexibility Gonzalez brings along with his patient bat would be tougher to replace,
With Boras as his agent (bad history with Astros FAs) I don’t see Marwin coming back so we’ll need to replace him in FA.
Boras is Altuve’s agent. And Cole’s. And Maldonado’s. And McCullers’.
The Boras/Astros thing is way old news and was only relevant with the previous ownership group.
I’m surprised no one at FG has written an article showing how wildly improbable the Yankees’ run of three straight world championships was. Or 4/5. Or six pennants in eight years.
Good things happen when you have five homegrown 45+ career WAR players under team control at the same time, haha
Especially when you’re already the richest team in the game.
Couldn’t you write this article about every team? What if two of your best position players battle injuries, your stud starter suddenly declines and your young prospects don’t progress. Yeah, things would probably be tough.
Houston’s minor league depth is what will keep them afloat going forward. Tucker is a stud, and guys like Davis, Straw and Alvarez are very underrated. And that’s just hitting. Josh James and Forrest Whitley are studs too.
Well yes, but you can say this about every club.