The Astros’ Other Best Player
In 2014, George Springer received an April callup to the majors and for half a season, he was Houston’s second-best player, with Jose Altuve leading the way. In 2015, Springer was on his way to a very good season when he fractured his wrist. Despite playing in just 102 games, he put up nearly four wins, about half a win shy of Altuve’s total. In 2016, Springer put up a very good five-win campaign, but he was bested not just by Altuve, but by rising shortstop Carlos Correa. The trio finished in the same order the following season, but last season, Alex Bregman jumped to the front of the pack, followed by a five-win season from Altuve, and a disappointing three-win year from Springer. Entering this season, Springer looked like the fourth-best position player on the Astros, but thus far, he’s been the fourth-best position player in baseball and tops in the American League.
Springer hasn’t exactly languished in the shadows of his star teammates, but his best seasons haven’t been nearly as good as their’s have been, and at 29 years old, he’s the same age as Altuve, four years older than Bregman, and five years Correa’s senior. Despite his relatively lesser status on the Astros, Springer’s 19 wins since the start of the 2015 season rank 21st in baseball, just ahead of Anthony Rizzo, J.D. Martinez, Andrelton Simmons, Charlie Blackmon, Giancarlo Stanton, and Correa. His 117 homers ranks 20th, just ahead of Kris Bryant and Freddie Freeman. Since the start of the 2016 season, his 15 wins are 15th among position players and his 101 homers is 12th in the sport. Looking at Springer’s numbers over multiple years helps to shape a greater appreciation for him, but it also glosses over a disappointing 2018 season.
Last season, Springer looked a lot like the player he’d been earlier in his career, with a walk rate around 10% and a strikeout rate twice that. His batted ball profile in terms of groundballs, fly balls and balls pulled looked the same. He had roughly the same number of doubles as in previous years. The problems for Springer came because the ball just wan’t flying out of the park. His 22 home runs constituted a big drop after hitting 63 the previous two seasons, and his .169 ISO was close to average. He just wasn’t hitting the ball as hard, with an average exit velocity on fly balls that was down to 92.6 mph from 94.4 mph in 2017, per Baseball Savant. In 2017, his average fly ball went 338 feet; it was down to 329 feet last season.
Springer did have a few different maladies affecting various parts of his body last season. But thinking that his prime had spanned his age-25 to age-27 seasons, with him experiencing an in-progress decline as he neared 30, wouldn’t have been unreasonable heading into this season. But that decline hasn’t proven to be true, as Springer might be headed toward the best season of his career. Springer’s 16 homers are already two-thirds of the way to last season’s total; his 187 wRC+ and 2.7 WAR lead the American League and are ahead of Mike Trout. Based on his exit velocity, he’s hitting the ball harder than ever and his average fly ball distance would also be the longest of his career. His 35% HR/FB percentage is likely to come down, but Springer isn’t cashing in on a bunch of cheap homers. Among the 137 players with at least five home runs, his xwOBA on those homers ranks 31st. Similarly, his average fly ball distance on home runs is 407 feet, which also ranks in the top-third of players with at least five homers. Even his inside-the-park homers go far.
Springer has always had a good sense of the strike zone, but he’s taking his game to a different level this season. The graph below shows every player’s O-Swing% and Z-Swing% on the season.
There’s nobody really close to what Springer is doing right now. In table form, here are the biggest differences between swinging in the zone and taking away from it.
| Name | Team | PA | Z-Swing% | O-Swing% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Springer | Astros | 190 | 70.7% | 17.9% | 52.8% |
| Kris Bryant | Cubs | 170 | 72.9% | 21.9% | 51.0% |
| Freddie Freeman | Braves | 181 | 77.0% | 26.2% | 50.8% |
| Luke Voit | Yankees | 171 | 76.1% | 27.1% | 49.0% |
| Brandon Lowe | Rays | 144 | 77.1% | 30.2% | 46.9% |
| Franmil Reyes | Padres | 138 | 83.0% | 36.6% | 46.4% |
| Justin Turner | Dodgers | 168 | 68.8% | 22.5% | 46.3% |
| Juan Soto | Nationals | 132 | 66.2% | 20.3% | 45.9% |
| Corey Seager | Dodgers | 164 | 73.2% | 27.6% | 45.6% |
| Kole Calhoun | Angels | 168 | 69.2% | 23.7% | 45.5% |
| Tommy Pham | Rays | 174 | 60.2% | 15.5% | 44.7% |
| Khris Davis | Athletics | 156 | 75.5% | 30.8% | 44.7% |
| J.D. Martinez | Red Sox | 173 | 76.2% | 31.7% | 44.5% |
On fastballs, the difference is even greater. Springer has seen 146 four-seam fastballs outside of the zone this season and he has swung at just 11 offerings. Of the 168 four-seam fastballs he’s seen in the zone, he’s swung 122 times and done a ton of damage. Sixty-five of Springer’s 195 plate appearances this season has ended on a four-seam fastball. He’s had more walks (13) than strikeouts (12), with as many extra base hits as singles (10) and a 252 wRC+. Springer is also crushing sliders, curves, and two-seamers with a little trouble getting results on cutters and changeups, a reversal of his career numbers, as he has typically struggled with sliders and done better with a cutter or change.
With such a small sample, it’s impossible to pinpoint a reason for Springer’s improved approach, particularly on the slider, but it does appear that Springer has shortened his leg kick a bit, which might help him better prepare for a pitch. Here’s Springer last season whiffing on a Shawn Kelley slider right down the middle.
Now here’s a similar slider from Trevor Bauer this season.
Springer’s toe touches the ground in about half the time after the release of the pitch compared to last year. He has been more aggressive on first pitches this season, swinging at 38% of initial offerings compared to 30% the last few seasons. He’s ended up in more 0-1 counts as a result, but it has yet to hurt him as he’s hit really well when behind in the count.
In addition to approach, there’s some reason to believe Springer is just healthier this year than he has been. His sprint speed is up over where it was a year ago, he’s legging out homers that don’t leave the yard with ease, and he’s stolen bases on four out of five opportunities after going 20 for 41 over the previous three years.
The projections still see Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa ahead of Springer in terms of WAR the rest of the way, but Jose Altuve’s struggles and injury have allowed Springer to move past the Astros’ second baseman. With 2.7 WAR already, Springer looks like he is headed to a six-win campaign and the best season of his career. He would be headed for free agency if Houston hadn’t kept him in the minors for a few weeks to start the 2014 season after he turned down a seven-year, $23 million contract, though he’s already earned more than that over the first six seasons of his career and might earn that much alone in his final year of arbitration eligibility next season. It isn’t the same as free agency, but Springer’s bet on himself has likely doubled his earnings over what would have been the seven years in that proposed deal.
Alex Bregman is having another great year for the Astros, and Carlos Correa has appeared to rebound from a tough 2018 season, but halfway through May, neither player has been Houston’s best. That honor goes to George Springer, who is currently leading the AL in WAR. Mike Trout is likely to catch him and get separation at some point, but Springer is having a great season so far, and it’s likely to be the best year of his already good career.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Don’t look now, but he has been the best in the Mike Trout division too.
It depends on whether you look at total production or on a rate basis. On a rate basis (including baserunning and defense), Trout is actually a bit ahead of Springer. But Springer has played just a little bit more.
Springer has played 4 more innings in the field than Trout. Seems Springer’s rate stats may be suffering because he plays DH more on his “off days” than Trout.
Springer’s stolen bases aren’t just from being healthier. Chandler Rome reported this spring he worked to lose 12 lbs this off-season and focus on being more explosive.
I think the exact situation was that Springer said he usually showed up to spring training at about 220 but got down to 210 over the course of the season. This past offseason he decided to keep the extra 10lbs off and show up to camp at 210.
That little league home run on Tuesday night was awesome
There was nothing “little league” homer about it. He crushed that ball and once he saw it was getting past the outfielder he kicked it into high gear.
Question for the floor: How many more World Series does this core (Springer/Altuve/Correa/Bregman) need to win together to not be a little bit disappointing for how good the individuals are? One? Two? None?
For reference, Springer is the earliest out (team control through next season), then Correa is controlled through 2021 with the other two signed through 2024.
Zero.
Honestly, zero. The memories they gave Astros fans in 2017 are enough for a lifetime.
That said, if they win one more, we better not hear about them needing to win any more to avoid being disappointments.
The Astros have, I am not kidding you, five (!) different players with 100 PAs and over 150 wRCs. In fact, of the 8 players with more than 100 PAs, not a single one has a wRC+ under 100 (Tyler White is has 87 PAs and has been the weak link).
You can go a long way with some average-ish pitchers with offense like that.
Impressive; David Schoenfield has been writing about how the Marlins’ offense is the converse of the Astros’ offense, and the analogy seems to extend here: just one MIA player above 100 wRC+ (Walker at 130), even with no PA restrictions.
I am kind of at the point where I’d like to see the Marlins and Orioles collapsed into one team, with the Marlins’ pitching staff and Orioles’ position players. Maybe the Marlioles can keep Anderson too, since we think he can rebound.
Amazingly, that would still be the worst team in the league, which should give everyone a sense of exactly how bad both of those teams are right now. That they’ve won one-third to one-quarter of their games is mostly a statement about how anybody with functioning major leaguers can luck into some wins.
Marlioles are not a bad idea (or maybe the Flying Fish?): we could have both the warehouse in right and the Marlin sculpture in left, fusion food (Boog’s BBQ Tacos?), and have them in the mid-Atlantic (Hilton Head/Charleston).
I can’t decide whether I prefer the Hilton Head Flying Fish or the Charleston Marlioles.
The main remaining question is whether they keep the Marlins’ front office or the Orioles; mercy would dictate that they’d get the Orioles’ group, and that they’d make Derek Jeter a utility guy.
forgot to mention Michael Brantley in the Astros stars discussion.
I think he’s mostly talking about the Core 4 that’s been around for this entire run. Brantley has been awesome but Bregman/Altuve/Springer/Correa is this generation’s Killer Bs.
The Killer ABC’S
“…but thus far, he’s been the fourth-best position player in baseball and tops in the American League.”
Really not a fan of definitve statements like this. WAR is simply not built to discriminate between a player with 2.9 WAR and one with 2.5 WAR. Not to mention that Baseball Reference has Trout ahead of Springer (2.9 vs 2.6). And at least part of Springer’s advantage is based on more playing time relative to Trout (4 more games, 23 more PAs).
The number of downvotes for a point both true and relevant shows the caliber of mind it takes to push that button. (Google “simpsons this is a free service of the fire department.”)
On the other hand … Springer’s team has played just one more game than Trout’s; health counts as a skill for this purpose. And Springer’s edge lies in offensive WAR, where we have much more confidence in a quarter-season sample.)
(Having made a point on both sides of the question, I await the downvotes that can’t possibly reflect a discernible opinion.)
Wait, Springer and Altuve are the same age? Had no idea.
I’m pretty sure Altuve grows his facial hair so he doesn’t have to take it his ID when he goes to see an R rated movie.
Well, that too. I meant it in the way that it feels like Altuve is a lot older. Just feels like he is decline and Springer headed towards prime. But apparently same age.
Springer came up to the big leagues very late for someone of his prospect status. He had a ridiculous athletic profile, but always had an issue with making contact. He could discern balls and strikes well but he couldn’t make contact well on strikes and therefore struck out a lot. That and perhaps Ludnow wanted to keep his service time down while the big league sucked, who knows. Regardless he was already 24 by the time he came up, while Altuve came up pretty early.
Springer’s career arc illustrates how analysis can get drowned in the ocean of data options.
In his first 3 years, he ran a pretty steady 126 OPS+, .460 SLG and 26% K. In year 4, he cut his Ks under 18%, and his OPS+, BA and SLG spiked.
So … “Whiff less, hit better! Of course!”
But in year 5, he kept his Ks under 20%, yet had his worst year.
There’s a similar pattern in his swing and contact rates:
— First 3 years, swung at 40% of first pitches and 47% of all pitches. Contact under 68%.
— Year 4, under 30% of first pitches and 45% of all pitches, contact over 76%. Results shot up. “Patience pays off!”
— Year 5, same swing rates as year 4, similar contact … results crashed.
— This year, big rise in first-pitch swing rate, notable drop in contact … best results ever.
I guess it just shows once again how it’s a process of CONSTANT adjustments. Changing a certain element may yield improvement, but those gains may not last. With so much data, the pace of adjustments and counter-adjustments is faster than ever … which also means our analysis of specific changes is less predictive than ever.