The Braves’ Time to Spend Could Be Now
(Photo: Corn Farmer)
Earlier this offseason, the Braves and Dodgers conducted a trade that is likely to have little bearing on the 2018 season in terms of on-field results. Los Angeles sent Charlie Culberson, Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, and Brandon McCarthy to Atlanta; Atlanta sent Matt Kemp the other way. There was a little money involved, too.
It wasn’t so much the precise identities of the players that were relevant to the deal, however, but rather the manner in which it allowed the clubs to curate their payrolls over the next couple years. The trade permitted the Braves to concentrate more of the salary in just the 2018 season while allowing the Dodgers to spread the money out over the next two years, thus avoiding the luxury tax. For taking on the brunt of the payments now, the Braves received whatever production McCarthy will provide this season and whatever production Culberson will provide over the next few. More importantly, however, they relieved themselves of a large financial obligation in 2019.
It’s hard not to look at that trade and see that the Braves are positioning themselves for a contending run starting in 2019. Perhaps that’s the case. There’s a pretty good argument, however, that they should consider accelerating their timeline. It’s possible, with the right moves, that Atlanta could assemble a winning team a year earlier than expected.
Waiting a year to truly contend makes some sense for the Braves. Former No. 1 pick Dansby Swanson was disappointing last season, while Ozzie Albies only got his feet wet. One of the top prospects in all of baseball, Ronald Acuna, is only 20 years old and has yet to take an at-bat in majors. Give those three another year to develop, pair them Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte, make a big splash in free agency, and the Braves could be contenders — maybe even in favorites — in the National League East.
With Julio Teheran, Luiz Gohara, Sean Newcomb, Mike Foltynewicz, and Max Fried, the club has the basis for a solid rotation, with five other pitching prospects having appeared on FanGraphs’ midseason top-100 list this past summer. With the Nationals possibly losing Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, and Gio Gonzalez to free agency next season, Atlanta could take a step forward just as Washington takes one back.
In addition to a potentially great young core of players, the Braves now possess almost no salary commitments for the 2019 season. With Kemp’s obligations now the responsibility of the Dodgers and Nick Markakis contract set to expire after this season, Atlanta has less $40 million on the books for next year, per Cot’s Contracts. Even after accounting for some extra salary for arbitration-eligible players, that number is unlikely to surpass $50 million by much. Given that payroll at the beginning of last season was at $122 million and 2.5 million fans showed up to see a losing team in a new ballpark, the Braves should be able to exceed that payroll figure in future seasons, especially if they are fielding a winner.
FanGraphs’ current projections call for Atlanta to win 74 games in 2018. Not an obvious candidate for contention, in other words. Almost everything is pointing to 2019 for the Braves. With a few reasonable assumptions, however — that the projections are slightly bearish, that the club capitalizes on an advantageous trade and free-agent market — it’s possible to identify a means for Atlanta to contend now.
Regarding that first point, the possibility that FanGraphs’ projections are a bit pessimistic at the moment, consider: Dan Szymborski released some ZiPS forecasts early in the offseason and found the Braves to be a roughly 80-win team at that point. There has, of course, been some movement in the NL East since then — the Phillies have gotten a little better, the Marlins much worse — but not enough to move the needle substantially. If we regard the Braves as an 80-win team, or even a 77-win team, their path to the postseason becomes a bit more clear.
So if that’s the point at which the club begins, how do they improve on it? A look at the Braves’ depth chart reveals three clear positional holes: one in left field, where Acuna and some below-replacement players are situated; one in right field, where Nick Markakis plays; and one at third base, where Rio Ruiz is expected to get most of his appearances. The Braves probably only need to fill one of those outfield holes, and then let Nick Markakis eventually cede time to Acuna when the latter is ready for the majors. Add one outfielder and one third baseman, and the Braves are in the Wild Card mix with a fighting chance for an upset of the Nationals.
The Braves could sign Lorenzo Cain or J.D. Martinez to fill that outfield hole, but there is an even better outfielder on the market — namely, Christian Yelich. Unlike Cain or Martinez, the means to acquiring Yelich isn’t through the best contract offer to the player, but rather the best package of prospects to his employer.
Fortunately, the Atlanta Braves have a good farm system, even after getting hit hard by penalties. Yelich, meanwhile, is probably the best outfielder currently available, either in trade or in free agency. Owed just $50 million for the next five seasons, Yelich’s contract would be no problem for Atlanta, who could surely provide Miami with enough talent to make a deal worthwhile. Even if Acuna, Albies, and Swanson and are off the table — and they might not be — the Braves could offer two top pitching prospects while supplementing the deal with some of their depth. Yelich would immediately add four wins to the Braves this season without significantly harming the team’s future outlook given his favorable contract.
As for third base, Mike Moustakas is just too obvious. The lefty slugger would provide a great fit in Atlanta’s home park where home runs are much easier to come by than they were in Kansas City. As I mentioned over at ESPN, Moustakas hit 24 of his 38 homers on the road last season and, over the last three years, has a 122 wRC+ on the road compared to 113 at home. Even with just the 113 wRC+ for which he’s currently projected for, he’d be something close to a three-win upgrade for the Braves.
If the Braves are concerned about cash flow problems in 2018, they could pretty easily backload Moustakas’s deal to pay him something like $5 million in 2018 with $20-$25 million guarantees for the few years after, when the Braves will have incredible financial wiggle room. Atlanta wouldn’t necessarily have to stop there if they wanted to provide a little more certainty to their pitching staff, but Yelich, or even Cain, plus Moustakas would be enough to make the Braves contenders without sacrificing much in terms of money, and they’ve got the prospect depth for Yelich. Going for J.T. Realmuto right now has some appeal, as well, but that shouldn’t be a hold-up in a potential deal for Yelich.
Maybe the Braves think waiting another year is the prudent choice given the uncertainty surrounding their young players, but they shouldn’t ignore the incredible opportunity that they have right now. They could make these moves and still make a splash next offseason if they wanted to. They’ve got payroll room and the prospects to contend this season. Teams often see drops in attendance after opening a new ballpark, but the Braves could easily fight against that now and begin building a consistent winner that has the potential to draw even more fans. A lot of teams appear to be sitting this offseason out. The Braves shouldn’t be one of them.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Per MLB Network’s Peter Gammon, the Marlins have said that trading Yelich to the Braves would happen “If and only if” Acuna was the headliner of their package. I don’t think they’ll go for that.
What are the chances Acuna outperforms Yelich over the next 5 years?
~21.7%
Even apart from that, Acuna’s present potential is a big part of how the Braves look like even possible contenders in 2018 and 2019. Trading current production for current production at a position (OF) where they don’t have great depth in their minors seems unwise.
Pretty good, and since he’s only 20, Acuna’s window should be more like ten years … whether the Braves can re sign him or not
These quotes always bug me. I know it is just anchoring and posturing (though since it is the Marlins, I guess incompetency is not out of the question). If this were true, the Braves could offer Albies, Wright, Gohara, Allard, Soraka, Riley, Anderson, and Pache and the Marlins would say no. Does anyone believe that?
As a Braves fan, I’d be upset if we traded Acuna for Yelich straight up, but I’d be steamed if that were just the “headline.”
given the respective ages and contract situations, it would be approximately a fair trade. which is to say that it’s probably putting too much interest in one asset for each side.
from miami’s perspective, other than shedding an unhappy egg what would be the point when they have 24 other holes that need to be plugged.
Was going to mention this. Pretty much kills any deal from the Braves for Yelich as they would want (at some point) a 2018 starting outfield consisting of Acuna, Yelich, and Inciarte.
The center of my package focuses on the A-level arms that the Marlins would want in the beginning of a rebuild, like Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, Kyle Muller, Bryse Wilson. Some but not all of those guys. Then I add one or two of Christian Pache, Drew Waters, Leudys Baez, Jefrey Ramos. I top it off by giving them their pick of Mike Soroka or Kolby Allard. If they (for whatever reason) demanded Austin Riley, I wouldn’t balk at giving him up while he’s at the peak value of a profile of uncertainty right now, and we either sign a third baseman in the coming weeks (Moose for 1-year, or Nunez/Frazier) or we roll with a Camargo/Culberson/Ruiz platoon for 2018 and really try to dive in on Machado/Donaldson/Brian Dozier for third base?/does Adrian Beltre want to stay a Ranger?
I think the roster construction of a great Braves contender around 2020 includes
Lineup: Yelich – Albies – Freeman – power 3B – Acuna – Catcher with some pop – Inciarte – Swanson
Bench: Purely backup C – Camargo – pop guy like a AJax/Lugbauer – other utility – outfielder
Rotation: TOR like Archer or FA like Keuchel – Gohara – Wright – Allard/Soroka – Other experienced starter acquired externally or Touki
Bench: Vizcaino/Minter – maybe a Reed/Shaw/McGee type if we have no other big need – a Folty/Newcomb – Weigel/Touki – a Corbin Clouse/Devan Watts
At least you remain optimistic, which is more than most Braves fans. We will never end up with Archer or Keuchel. I’m doubtful that we’ll end up with Moose as his contract demands are more than we’d typically pay. Minus that, we are not going to have a “power 3B”. That’s the difference between a pleasant daydream and actual reality. I’m extremely dubious that Marlins trade, within the division, Yelich for a bunch of A ball players. I’d like to be wrong, but I’m probably not. The best route to get Yelich is to take on a terrible contract such as Chen. All Marlins really care about is saving money. Save them money and we might make a deal.
The path for position players is fairly clear, as you’ve outlined here. The pitching, on the other hand, looks to be extremely volatile. Teheran, Foltynewicz, and McCarthy are all pretty much question marks for their own different reasons. And the rest of the rotation and bullpen would be filled out with first or second year players, which comes with a massive side of volatility. I don’t think the front office is ready to commit to 2018 if they don’t know which pitchers they can count on yet. It certainly seems like five good starters will emerge, but that may not happen until sometime after August, and the position players can only do so much.
“The key to future success for the Braves is re-signing Nick Markakis” – Dan Szymborski
I’m against this. You are taking a big risk on both ends. First, you could do this and still not be good. Second, as a team that is never going to spend like the Yankees, trading multiple high-end prospects should basically never be done, especially if you might be kinda bad right now. You’re essentially shrinking your window before it is even open.
If you do trade for Yelich, however, you absolutely cannot trade Swanson, Albies or Acuna. You just described them as part of the optimistic outcome for the Braves. If you get rid of one of them (holy hell, I’d go ape if they gave up two), then your optimistic outcome has just become almost impossible.
Honestly, there are a number of teams in the average to below average range that should be reconsidering their path depending on how the market goes in the next month.
I’m agnostic on the proposal to try and compete this year, but I don’t think I agree with this–we know most of these prospects won’t pan out, so teams have gotta take some chances to turn them from potential into short-term value. No one is risk-free, but Yelich is lower-risk than a passel of high-end A-ball prospects.
The real issue is Marlins are not going to trade Yelich to the Braves for a passel of high end A ball prospects. Might do that to a different team, but not ours. So, irrelevant what we Braves fans might like. But yeah, philosophically, I’d be much more likely to deal a bunch of lower level prospects for a Yelich where I might not do that for a Donaldson.
Isn’t Wrc+ park adjusted? Why would Moose’s split mean anything?
Because the balls that are home runs in one park and outs in another are not perfectly added back in the wRC+ calculation. That calculation scales the overall home run rate for the park in question, but not at the level of the specific player, like Moose, specifically hitting balls in areas that were not homers in KC but would’ve been in the Braves’ stadium.
What output gap said: park effects are averages but parks can impact different profile hitters differently. In 2017, for example, Moustakas had a 94 wRC+ at home but 132 wRC+ on the road.
A problem I’d have with biting too hard on that as reality vs. relatively small sample variation, however, is that for his career Moustakas has put up 95 wRC+ at home vs. 97 on the road. That’s actually a bit bigger gap than it first appears, because home hitters across the league had a wRC+ about 9 points better than on the road (fitting with home teams winning over 50% of games).
It is possibly a historically good buyers market so buying a young-ish free agent now primarily for future seasons may the best move. Moustakas seems to fit like a glove as long as he or their own 3B prospect would be willing/competent to play a corner outfield spot when the time comes.
If the Braves were inclined to make a run in 2018, my guess is they would have “outbid” SF for Cutch – this seems like strong evidence that they do not consider 2018 a focus.
The article is about whether the Braves could/should be in a win now and the foreseeable future mode. McCutchen is exclusively a win now move as he is a free agent after this season. I don’t see how not electing to deal for him is strong evidence that the Braves do not consider 2018 to be a focus.
I agree that the apparent buyer’s market creates a huge opportunity for teams like the Braves. Let’s hope they (and some other teams sitting in the middle) jump in!
There is no apparent buyer’s market- $/WAR is still around 9 whereas the actual value of a win maxes out around $6.5.
Which FA do you expect to sign for less than $9m/WAR?
If there’s going to be a buyer’s market at any position, I think it would be 3B where there don’t look to be many logical landing spots of surefire contenders who feel like they need Moustakas or Frazier.
That said, I’d have some concern with guaranteeing Moustakas 4 or 5 years because I think that there’s a real risk that his high power / mediocre OBP hitting profile craters pretty hard once his power declines. So what looks like a buyer’s market for Moustakas relative to a prediction of 5 / $95 (Dave Cameron) or 5 / $85 (crowdsourcing) might just get down to the level that’s in-line with my personally pessimistic take on him.
We have no idea what the $/WAR is. We can calculate how much a million dollars bought in WAR in retrospect, or based on public projections. We do not know what the internal team projections are, which is what the $/WAR is actually based on.
Still a bit early to say what type of market this is other than “abnormal”. It wouldn’t surprise me if Moose has a tough time getting his dream contract and settles for something slightly less to get the length he’d like. If so, that’s a worthy gamble for the Braves.
Right now, even given the Buyer’s market, I think the Braves are better served by holding steady for the 2018 season and making their moves for the 2019 season. AA is still feeling his way around the organization and still getting his own personal perspective on the potential of the various prospects he now controls. And I would argue that the Braves need to do more than fill holes at Left Field and Third base. The Braves Pitching is still full of questions and potential pitfalls.
Currently Teheran is coming off of one of his worst seasons as a pro and there are very real concerns within the organization that his arsenal may not be able to perform at the new Suntrust Field.
Folty failed to take the step forward last year that many were pinning their hopes on. While his raw stuff remains as tantalizing as ever, he still hasn’t been able harness it effectively. And at this point, there are concerns if he ever will.
And sadly, those two currently remain the Braves surest bets at Starting Pitching for the 2018 season. Now, Gohara could come in and quickly blow the doors off, but we are basing that far more on projections and hope.
The Braves system is filled with well regarded pitching talent, but until a handful of them can start producing 3fWAR seasons for ATL, filling holes at 3B and LF isn’t going to do enough to put the Braves over the top.
I agree with all this except the conclusion. I think the article should’ve been clearer about the parameters that would have this make sense for the Braves. Focusing on Moustakas doesn’t make a lot of sense to me despite the talk of how well he’d fit at SunTrust.
1 year deals. The market being the way it is, the Braves might be able to upgrade 3B and perhaps a few other places by getting someone like Todd Frazier.
I completely agree we shouldn’t sign Moustakas, or make any long term commitments in general this offseason. But I like the idea of one year deals paired with the gamble that our pitching exceeds expectations.
*a lot* has to go right, but there’s no risk to one year deals in our current situation. Gets the fans really excited if we’re actually in the running.
Along with the market, having the Marlins in our division helps in the Wild Card race too, as we get to play them more than the NL Central and NL West. In general the NL east should be the easiest division in the NL, even though beating the Nats sounds crazy, 2nd place is surely possible. The Phils and Mets are full of question marks too.
It’s a really interesting spot for the team to be in.
Forget Yelich. Cain is going to cost well below what was expected. Signing Cain and Moustakas will not be overly expensive but would efficiently fix their glaring holes. And with Ender on the roster already, Cain would be playing out of a corner, likely at an elite level.
They are going to just let future HOF’er Nick Markakis go without a fight?
The main selling point for trying to trade for Yelich is that the Marlins do not seem very smart. So if they could build a deal around someone like Dansby Swanson or someone else who is wildly overrated then sure, this is a nobrainer.
But realistically, this would require the Marlins to not only deal for an overrated player, but to ignore other equally flashy deals. The probability of success seems low.
On the other hand, Moustakas is a good fit as long as you don’t think he’s going to become totally immobile soonish.
In 2020 the top 2 teams in the NL will be Cubs and ATL
You’re expecting the Dodgers to just fold up shop? The notion that the perpetually stingy Braves will be a top team is also extremely optimistic. Pretty much states you think Albies and Acuna will be big time stars AND the rotation will sort itself out.
Do you really want to take the risk of trying to accelerate the Braves’ rebuild by a year or so by risking trading away so many of their prospects? I can’t see this as being a smart strategy at all. Plus any assessment of the Braves’ rotation being that of a contender is highly wishful. The Braves are loaded with pitching prospects who MAY become viable MLB pitchers. But which ones, and when will they be ready and how good they will be are all questions we don’t have answers for, yet.
And considering that the Braves just took on tens of millions of worthless contracts, I can’t for the life of me imagine why someone would think they should spend more now when the free agent market is fair to middling instead of waiting a year when they will tens of millions more to spend, the free agent market will be much, much better and the Braves will have much more info about the development of their prospects.
I think he offered too many prospects, but getting a relatively young guy like Yelich is highly desirable for the Braves. He’ll still be prime two years from now when we do hope to win. Trading uncertainty for certainty is not a bad thing. Braves have always said one reason to accumulate so many prospects is to make trades when the time comes.
Maybe I’m behind on how highly-rated some of the Braves pitching prospects have become after the season, but two of the top Braves pitching prospects plus lesser prospects for Yelich strikes me as less than would be needed to acquire him. Yelich is 26, coming off two straight 4.5 WAR seasons, and projected for a 4 WAR season in 2018. As Craig notes, he’s under contract for 5 years for a total of only $50 million.
The surplus value math for Yelich should pencil out to something better than the Sale return. Maybe Sale’s name, higher WAR in his best seasons, and post-season value as a TOR starter make it unlikely in practice that Yelich nets a better return, but Yelich also has two more years of team control than Sale did when he was traded.
I could also see some teams talking themselves into hitting upside for Yelich because (1) he seems like a possible candidate to benefit from hitting the ball in the air a lot more, which is the trend du jour and (2) his career wRC+ is 128 on the road vs. 113 at home, suggesting that his home stadium may hurt him beyond standard park factors. (The league total for all hitters is wRC+ 9 points better at home than on the road. That fits with intuition, because we know that home teams win over 50% of games.) And remember, Yelich is already a 4 to 4.5 WAR player before baking in any potential upside.
iirc the Braves have 6 or 7 top 100 SP prospects, though I agree even the top two isn’t enough. But it might be enough if the Braves also took Chen, and almost certainly enough if the Braves took Chen AND Prado. I don’t think they necessarily should do this, but I think that’s in the realm of a fair deal.
I guess I’ll just have to accept bewilderment at the idea that a 4WAR MLB player isn’t as good as a .400 BABIP AA player.
This article mentions upgrading the position player side, but nothing about pitching. At the present moment, there’s not one Braves pitcher that has proven enough to show that they will be a quality performer in 2018. There’s a lot of upside in the pitching staff, but TONS of question marks.