The Challenges Ahead for Hoyer

Yesterday, we talked about Jed Hoyer potentially taking the post as the Padres new GM. Today, let’s look at two situations which he’ll need to address this off-season.

Adrian Gonzalez

One of the most talented (and underrated) players in the N.L. held a coming out party last season. Gonzalez has been worth at least 3 WAR in every season since 2006, but not many saw a 6 WAR season coming surrounded by a bunch of nothing. Gonzalez is signed in 2010 for $4.75M and the Padres hold a club option worth $5.5M in 2011. When talking about great team contracts, this one has to be mentioned. Kevin Towers signed him to a four-year, $9.5M extension back in April of 2007 and he’s been worth over $50M since. Good deal? No. Great deal.

With such, Gonzalez holds a tremendous amount of trade value. The Red Sox are known to be heavily interested, which likely means the Yankees hold interest too. He’ll turn 28 in May, so there’s no rush to move him due to age and decline concerns. The Jake Peavy deal helped to rebuild the Padres farm system, but there’s still work to be done. Certainly the Padres don’t have to (and seemingly won’t) move him. That won’t stop teams from calling and shouldn’t stop the Padres from listening.

Heath Bell

It’s amazing how one 42 save season is going to change Bell’s perceived value. Since arriving in San Diego back in 2007, Bell has been an extremely solid reliever. He’s posted FIP of 2.50, 3.34, and 2.42; tRA of 2.55, 3.59, 2.45. He’s predominantly a groundball pitcher, but he has some swing-and-miss stuff. Last season he posted a career low HR/FB% of 5.1 which surpasses his previous totals by nearly a full percentage point and should cause some skepticism about a repeat performance quite this good. He’s entering his second year of arbitration and San Diego may be able to cash in on those saves if the right team buys into him.

Given how the Padres shifted into “sell everything” mode last year, this off-season should be a fun one to watch. Will Hoyer attempt to load up for a quick run or will he attempt to rebuild further?