The Cubs’ Bullpen Will Be Fine, Probably

Last night, the Chicago Cubs lost their seventh game of the season, falling to 6-7 in the process. In 2016, the Cubs didn’t lose their seventh game of the year until May 11, so this start represents a departure from last season’s 103-win, World Series champion.

That doesn’t mean there’s cause for concern, though. The team isn’t hitting all that well, but Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Addison Russell are all likely to improve upon their early-season lines. The offense, as a whole, ought to come around. The rotation is pitching well — Kyle Hendricks has had a rough start, but Brett Anderson has been a pleasant surprise — so nothing really to worry about there. The bullpen, though, might be worth a closer look.

The Cubs’ bullpen has put up a 4.10 ERA, which isn’t very good, and a 4.46 FIP, which is even worse. Through 41.2 innings, the team’s relievers have been slightly worse than replacement level as a group. They’ve blown four saves already, tied with the Marlins for the most in the National League — and for whatever shortcomings the save possesses as a metric, having a bullpen blow a lead four times in 13 games isn’t good.

On the whole, the bullpen has been bad. Has it been team-wide issue, though, or the product of a few poor performers? Let’s see.

New closer Wade Davis has been good. Koji Uehara has been fine. Carl Edwards, Jr. looks like he’s ready to step into a more prominent role. Mike Montgomery hasn’t been great, really, but he’s covered a lot of innings adequately. Hector Rondon seems like he’s probably back after a rough 2016 season, and Brian Duensing has only pitched two innings. If there’s blame to had it is coming from two guys: Justin Grimm and Pedro Strop. While Grimm’s start hasn’t been great, he’s also not expected to be more than the sixth- or seventh-best reliever on the team. Looking even closer, Grimm’s poor pitching hasn’t really even cost the Cubs. Here are the same pitchers by win-probability statistics.

Of Grimm’s six appearances, three have come in very low-leverage situations, one has been roughly neutral, and two have occurred in high-leverage situations. On April 10, Grimm came on in the seventh with the bases loaded and no outs with the Cubs holding a one-run lead. A pop fly and a double play later, the Cubs’ chances of winning moved from 39% to 79%, making up for Grimm’s few poor performances in low-leverage outings, as well as another appearance (April 14) during which he allowed two inherited runners plus a run of his own en route to turning a 2-1 lead into a 4-2 deficit.

Koji Uehara has actually pitched well, but gets a negative WPA because, on Sunday, he entered the eighth with a 1-0 lead and left with a 1-1 tie and the bases loaded without recording an out. Six mostly good performances get erased by one rough outing. It’s early. That sort of thing is going to even out. Mike Montgomery hasn’t pitched too terribly, but a run or two in a close game is going to make a big difference. Over the course of a long season, those things will work themselves out.

Pedro Strop, on the other hand, might present some cause for concern.

Strop’s was good last year, but he missed a month near the end of the season and wasn’t relied upon in important situations during the playoffs. Strop is heavily reliant on his slider, a pitch at which he needs hitters to swing and miss for success. He’s gotten that so far, and he looked particularly good last night against Milwaukee, but he needs to establish his fastballs for strikes so he can get hitters to chase. From 2014 to 2016, his sinker and four-seamer were balls just 36% of the time, per Brooks Baseball. This season, with the caveat it is still very early, those pitches have been balls 47% of the time. That might not represent an actual shift in true talent, but it does help explain Strop’s struggles thus far — like, for example, why he’s walked five of the 25 batters he has faced.

Last night’s performance from Strop was encouraging (box). In a scoreless eighth inning against the Brewers, he struck out two and induced a fly ball for the third out. He needed only 13 pitches. It’s possible that this represents his real skill going forward.

For the Cubs’ bullpen to be a success, though, it might not even need to be. The relief corps is built to withstand potential volatility from Strop. As I noted in the offseason:

Bullpen performance is no sure thing, and predicting it is incredibly difficult. What the Cubs appear to have done, though, is collect a set of high-risk players in a position that is already high-risk — and to hope that some of those risks pan out. The rewards could be great.

The Cubs don’t need Strop to pan out because they have Wade Davis, Koji Uehara, Hector Rondon, Carl Edwards, Jr., and, at the moment, Mike Montgomery. They’ve collected a large number of arms who could produce elite performances. Given their talent level across the board, the team can afford to spend April and May figuring out what they have in the bullpen and aligning their best players to get the important outs. If Strop figures it out, they can afford inconsistency from Rondon or Uehara or an injury to Davis. The Cubs have a number of options to get important outs.

At this time last year, Rondon and Strop were the bullpen’s main cogs, but by the postseason, Aroldis Chapman and Mike Montgomery were the most important pieces. They’ve set themselves up a little better this season so that a midseason addition is less likely to be necessary. That said, if disaster strikes and Davis gets hurt again, age catches up to Uehara, Montgomery moves to the rotation, Rondon and Strop don’t recover their old form, and Carl Edwards, Jr. doesn’t step up, the Cubs should still be in contention and they can get an arm or two at the deadline. That isn’t likely given the sheer number of solid arms they have, but it is possible, and it seemed to work out fine last year.