The Dodgers’ Improbable Victory

Some losses make fans curse, others laugh, and in the rarest of cases, people can’t help but ask if such absurdity really happened. The Diamondbacks’ faithful are probably still lost in blank-stare mode this morning. For those who were asleep as the East Coast flirted with the midnight hour, here’s how the bottom of the ninth inning played out in the D-Backs/Dodgers game.

With the score knotted at four, James Loney drew a leadoff walk from Esmerling Vasquez. Casey Blake then singled, raising the Dodgers’ expected win percentage to 80.5%. Here’s where things get tricky. Russell Martin would show bunt, causing third baseman Mark Reynolds to jog towards the plate, thus allowing Loney to take a larger secondary lead. Martin would not make contact with the ball and the entire scene seemingly acted as a dress rehearsal for the next pitch … or at least it would’ve been, if Reynolds didn’t wander a little too far inwards, giving Loney what he perceived as an opening to take third base. Loney would go a little over halfway before deciding to throw it in reverse, and thus, allowing the Diamondbacks to execute a rundown for the first out in the inning.

To Loney’s credit, he did allow Blake to advance to second base. Martin would then hit a grounder to the right side of the infield, allowing Blake to reach third. With a 2-2 count, Blake would make a move towards the plate, albeit not an overly convincing one, but a move good enough to cause Vasquez to lose his composure on the hill and commit a balk. That allowed Blake to score the game winning run in truly rare and ridiculous fashion.

If that’s not enough, the only reason the Dodgers were even in the position to win is because Diamondbacks’ starter Rodrigo Lopez blew a two-run lead in the eighth inning with two outs after an error by Kelly Johnson. Prior to that play, the Dodgers held an 18.2% win expectancy; after the error, that number shot up to 54.7%. And to think, all of this came just minutes after their win expectancy had dipped to a game-low 7.8%.

For such a seemingly simple and occasionally repetitive game, it sure does find ways to keep shocking and entertaining us throughout the season year after year. Dap to Alexander Cartwright.

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jirish
16 years ago

I suppose that game was entertaining if you are a Dodgers fan. If you are a Diamondbacks fan, your bullpen just showed you yet another way to lose a game. Kelly Johnson made 2 errors on one play in the eighth and Lopez was only in the game that late because there is no one in the bullpen they can trust to hand the ball to.

Saga
16 years ago

Watched the game. I wonder if you could lose a game in a worse way…

C
16 years ago

I had Billingsley (didn’t get the loss) and Broxton (got the win).

lasharpshooter
16 years ago

It was Ojeda playing third. Reynolds singled and injured himself running to first, but stood in the game. He was pinch run after moving into scoring position. As for the balk, its clear he starts his motion and before he comes set he steps off the rubber.

Doc Häagen-Dazs
16 years ago

How can you have a balk if the batter’s not even in his box? I couldn’t believe this call. As a life-long Dodger fan, I would have to protest this call against the D-Backs. Seeing is disbelieving. Where’s the rule book?

Alireza
16 years ago

Time was not called, so the ball was live and it was a balk.

As for Loney’s bone head play, he should have just kept running. Ojeda had almost no chance to get him at that point, and he may have caused another error.

Brett
16 years ago

I could be wrong, but I thought if the pitcher touches the rubber or sets up on the rubber then a balk can be called. It is a very vague rule, or rather the way umpires have called it makes it vague.

There was an interesting post here on Fangraphs about Mark Buerhle’s two balks this weeks.

Jdub
16 years ago

As a Diamondbacks fan, I’m not really surprised at the bullpen doing something stupid to ruin the game. Gotta wonder if they’re throwing these games. It’s absolutely ridiculous.