The FanGraphs 2025 Staff Predictions
After an offseason marked by big free agent deals, ballpark and RSN uncertainty, and a whole lot of handwringing concerning the Los Angeles Dodgers, the 2025 season is almost upon us; we made it. And on this, the morning of Opening Day, we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule by trying to predict the year in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Such is the prognostication business.
I asked the staff to predict the playoff field, as well as the pennant and World Series winners, and the individual award recipients. Folks from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in. Here are the results. Please note that the tables at the end showing the full writer ballots are sortable.
American League
American League West
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 12 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 21 |
| Seattle Mariners | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| Houston Astros | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
American League Central
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 |
| Minnesota Twins | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| Kansas City Royals | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
American League East
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 14 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| New York Yankees | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
American League One Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 12 |
| Texas Rangers | 5 |
| Houston Astros | 2 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 2 |
| Detroit Tigers | 2 |
| New York Yankees | 2 |
| Seattle Mariners | 1 |
American League Two Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 7 |
| Seattle Mariners | 6 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 2 |
| Boston Red Sox | 2 |
| Kansas City Royals | 2 |
| New York Yankees | 2 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 2 |
| Houston Astros | 1 |
| Minnesota Twins | 1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 |
National League
National League West
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 22 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
National League Central
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
National League East
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 12 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 26 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 26 |
| New York Mets | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 23 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
National League One Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 25 |
| New York Mets | 1 |
National League Two Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 12 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 11 |
| New York Mets | 2 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 |
Pennant and World Series Winners
American League Pennant Winner
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 9 |
| Texas Rangers | 4 |
| Seattle Mariners | 3 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 2 |
| Minnesota Twins | 2 |
| New York Yankees | 2 |
| Houston Astros | 1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1 |
| Detroit Tigers | 1 |
National League Pennant Winner
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 15 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 4 |
| Atlanta Braves | 3 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 3 |
| New York Mets | 1 |
World Series Matchups
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 6 |
| Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 2 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. New York Mets | 1 |
| New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves | 1 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves | 1 |
World Series Winner
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 13 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 3 |
| Boston Red Sox | 3 |
| Atlanta Braves | 2 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 2 |
| New York Mets | 1 |
| Texas Rangers | 1 |
| New York Yankees | 1 |
Individual Awards
American League MVP
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 9 |
| Aaron Judge | 3 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 2 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 2 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 2 |
| Alex Bregman | 1 |
| Junior Caminero | 1 |
| Rafael Devers | 1 |
| Riley Greene | 1 |
| Wyatt Langford | 1 |
| Cal Raleigh | 1 |
| José Ramírez | 1 |
| Mike Trout | 1 |
American League Cy Young
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet | 7 |
| Jacob deGrom | 4 |
| Logan Gilbert | 4 |
| Cole Ragans | 4 |
| Tarik Skubal | 4 |
| Hunter Brown | 1 |
| Bryan Woo | 1 |
| Framber Valdez | 1 |
American League RoY
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Kristian Campbell | 5 |
| Jackson Jobe | 5 |
| Jasson Domínguez | 4 |
| Jacob Wilson | 4 |
| Roman Anthony | 2 |
| Cam Smith | 2 |
| Jac Caglianone | 1 |
| Jack Leiter | 1 |
| Kumar Rocker | 1 |
| Alan Roden | 1 |
National League MVP
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 8 |
| Juan Soto | 6 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 5 |
| William Contreras | 2 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2 |
| Corbin Carroll | 1 |
| Jackson Chourio | 1 |
| Kyle Tucker | 1 |
National League Cy Young
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | 13 |
| Zack Wheeler | 6 |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 2 |
| Logan Webb | 2 |
| Corbin Burnes | 1 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 1 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 1 |
National League RoY
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Dylan Crews | 9 |
| Roki Sasaki | 9 |
| Matt Shaw | 3 |
| Drake Baldwin | 2 |
| Chase Dollander | 1 |
| Logan Henderson | 1 |
| Rhett Lowder | 1 |
Staff Predictions – Full Ballots
American League Full Writer Ballots
| Writer | West | Central | East | WC1 | WC2 | WC3 | 1 Seed | 2 Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | SEA | KCR | BOS | NYY | HOU | MIN | BOS | KCR |
| Ben Clemens | SEA | DET | BOS | BAL | MIN | TEX | BOS | SEA |
| Chad Young | SEA | MIN | BOS | TEX | BAL | KCR | BOS | SEA |
| Dan Szymborski | HOU | DET | BAL | NYY | BOS | SEA | HOU | BAL |
| David Gerth | HOU | KCR | BOS | TEX | BAL | DET | BOS | HOU |
| David Laurila | HOU | DET | BAL | KCR | BOS | MIN | DET | BAL |
| Davy Andrews | TEX | MIN | BOS | BAL | HOU | SEA | BOS | TEX |
| Eric Longenhagen | TEX | DET | TBR | BOS | MIN | KCR | DET | TEX |
| Esteban Rivera | TEX | DET | NYY | SEA | BAL | BOS | NYY | TEX |
| Jake Mailhot | SEA | DET | BOS | BAL | TEX | HOU | BOS | SEA |
| James Fegan | TEX | DET | BOS | BAL | KCR | SEA | BOS | TEX |
| Jason Martinez | LAA | KCR | BOS | TOR | SEA | MIN | BOS | KCR |
| Jay Jaffe | TEX | DET | BOS | BAL | SEA | HOU | BOS | TEX |
| Jeff Zimmerman | HOU | KCR | TOR | TEX | MIN | NYY | HOU | TOR |
| Joe Orrico | TEX | MIN | TBR | BOS | HOU | KCR | TEX | TBR |
| Jon Becker | TEX | CLE | BOS | NYY | BAL | HOU | BOS | TEX |
| Jordan Rosenblum | SEA | MIN | NYY | HOU | TBR | BOS | SEA | NYY |
| Justin Mason | TEX | MIN | NYY | BOS | KCR | HOU | NYY | TEX |
| Kiri Oler | TEX | KCR | BOS | BAL | SEA | CLE | TEX | BOS |
| Leo Morgenstern | SEA | MIN | BAL | TEX | HOU | NYY | BAL | MIN |
| Matt Martell | TEX | DET | NYY | BOS | SEA | KCR | TEX | NYY |
| Meg Rowley | SEA | MIN | BOS | NYY | KCR | TEX | BOS | SEA |
| Michael Baumann | TEX | DET | BOS | SEA | HOU | BAL | TEX | BOS |
| Michael Rosen | SEA | CLE | BAL | TEX | BOS | LAA | BAL | SEA |
| Mike Podhorzer | SEA | DET | BOS | NYY | TEX | BAL | BOS | SEA |
| Paul Sporer | TEX | MIN | TBR | HOU | BOS | DET | TEX | TBR |
American League Individual Awards
| Writer | MVP | Cy Young | RoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | Aaron Judge | Garrett Crochet | Jasson Domínguez |
| Ben Clemens | Rafael Devers | Tarik Skubal | Roman Anthony |
| Chad Young | Alex Bregman | Garrett Crochet | Cam Smith |
| Dan Szymborski | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Jacob Wilson |
| David Gerth | Junior Caminero | Hunter Brown | Jasson Domínguez |
| David Laurila | Riley Greene | Logan Gilbert | Jackson Jobe |
| Davy Andrews | Bobby Witt Jr. | Cole Ragans | Kristian Campbell |
| Eric Longenhagen | Bobby Witt Jr. | Framber Valdez | Kristian Campbell |
| Esteban Rivera | Aaron Judge | Jacob deGrom | Jac Caglianone |
| Jake Mailhot | Bobby Witt Jr. | Logan Gilbert | Jacob Wilson |
| James Fegan | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Jackson Jobe |
| Jason Martinez | Mike Trout | Garrett Crochet | Kristian Campbell |
| Jay Jaffe | Bobby Witt Jr. | Cole Ragans | Kristian Campbell |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Logan Gilbert | Alan Roden |
| Joe Orrico | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Jacob deGrom | Cam Smith |
| Jon Becker | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Jacob Wilson |
| Jordan Rosenblum | Aaron Judge | Tarik Skubal | Kumar Rocker |
| Justin Mason | Bobby Witt Jr. | Tarik Skubal | Roman Anthony |
| Kiri Oler | Gunnar Henderson | Jacob deGrom | Jacob Wilson |
| Leo Morgenstern | Gunnar Henderson | Jacob deGrom | Jackson Jobe |
| Matt Martell | Cal Raleigh | Logan Gilbert | Jasson Domínguez |
| Meg Rowley | José Ramírez | Cole Ragans | Kristian Campbell |
| Michael Baumann | Yordan Alvarez | Tarik Skubal | Jackson Jobe |
| Michael Rosen | Wyatt Langford | Bryan Woo | Jack Leiter |
| Mike Podhorzer | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Jasson Domínguez |
| Paul Sporer | Yordan Alvarez | Cole Ragans | Jackson Jobe |
National League Full Writer Ballots
| Writer | West | Central | East | WC1 | WC2 | WC3 | 1 Seed | 2 Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | NYM | ARI | LAD | ATL |
| Ben Clemens | LAD | MIL | ATL | PHI | NYM | SFG | LAD | ATL |
| Chad Young | LAD | CHC | ATL | NYM | PHI | MIL | LAD | ATL |
| Dan Szymborski | LAD | CHC | PHI | ARI | ATL | NYM | LAD | PHI |
| David Gerth | LAD | MIL | NYM | ARI | ATL | PHI | LAD | NYM |
| David Laurila | LAD | CIN | PHI | ATL | ARI | MIL | LAD | PHI |
| Davy Andrews | LAD | CHC | ATL | NYM | ARI | PHI | LAD | ATL |
| Eric Longenhagen | LAD | CIN | PHI | ATL | ARI | MIL | LAD | PHI |
| Esteban Rivera | LAD | MIL | ATL | PHI | ARI | NYM | LAD | ATL |
| Jake Mailhot | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | ARI | NYM | LAD | ATL |
| James Fegan | LAD | MIL | NYM | PHI | ATL | ARI | LAD | NYM |
| Jason Martinez | ARI | CIN | NYM | LAD | ATL | PHI | NYM | ARI |
| Jay Jaffe | LAD | MIL | ATL | NYM | ARI | PHI | LAD | ATL |
| Jeff Zimmerman | LAD | STL | PHI | ATL | NYM | SDP | LAD | PHI |
| Joe Orrico | LAD | CHC | ATL | NYM | ARI | PHI | LAD | ATL |
| Jon Becker | LAD | CHC | PHI | ARI | NYM | ATL | LAD | PHI |
| Jordan Rosenblum | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | NYM | ARI | LAD | ATL |
| Justin Mason | LAD | CHC | PHI | ATL | ARI | NYM | LAD | PHI |
| Kiri Oler | LAD | MIL | PHI | ATL | ARI | SDP | LAD | PHI |
| Leo Morgenstern | LAD | CHC | ATL | NYM | PHI | ARI | LAD | ATL |
| Matt Martell | LAD | CHC | PHI | ARI | ATL | NYM | LAD | PHI |
| Meg Rowley | LAD | CHC | PHI | ATL | ARI | NYM | LAD | PHI |
| Michael Baumann | LAD | CHC | PHI | ARI | ATL | NYM | LAD | PHI |
| Michael Rosen | LAD | MIL | PHI | NYM | ATL | SDP | LAD | PHI |
| Mike Podhorzer | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | NYM | ARI | LAD | ATL |
| Paul Sporer | LAD | CHC | ATL | ARI | NYM | PHI | LAD | ATL |
National League Individual Awards
| Writer | MVP | Cy Young | RoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Roki Sasaki |
| Ben Clemens | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Dylan Crews |
| Chad Young | Kyle Tucker | Paul Skenes | Roki Sasaki |
| Dan Szymborski | Shohei Ohtani | Zack Wheeler | Dylan Crews |
| David Gerth | Elly De La Cruz | Paul Skenes | Roki Sasaki |
| David Laurila | Jackson Chourio | Logan Webb | Chase Dollander |
| Davy Andrews | Elly De La Cruz | Paul Skenes | Roki Sasaki |
| Eric Longenhagen | William Contreras | Cristopher Sánchez | Drake Baldwin |
| Esteban Rivera | Juan Soto | Paul Skenes | Dylan Crews |
| Jake Mailhot | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Roki Sasaki |
| James Fegan | William Contreras | Logan Webb | Rhett Lowder |
| Jason Martinez | Elly De La Cruz | Corbin Burnes | Dylan Crews |
| Jay Jaffe | Juan Soto | Paul Skenes | Roki Sasaki |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Cristopher Sánchez | Logan Henderson |
| Joe Orrico | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Matt Shaw |
| Jon Becker | Juan Soto | Paul Skenes | Dylan Crews |
| Jordan Rosenblum | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Roki Sasaki |
| Justin Mason | Shohei Ohtani | Zack Wheeler | Dylan Crews |
| Kiri Oler | Juan Soto | Zack Wheeler | Roki Sasaki |
| Leo Morgenstern | Juan Soto | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Matt Shaw |
| Matt Martell | Corbin Carroll | Zack Wheeler | Drake Baldwin |
| Meg Rowley | Elly De La Cruz | Zack Wheeler | Dylan Crews |
| Michael Baumann | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Matt Shaw |
| Michael Rosen | Juan Soto | Paul Skenes | Dylan Crews |
| Mike Podhorzer | Elly De La Cruz | Tyler Glasnow | Roki Sasaki |
| Paul Sporer | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Zack Wheeler | Dylan Crews |
Pennant and World Series Winners
| Writer | AL Pennant Winner | NL Pennant Winner | World Series Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Ben Clemens | Boston Red Sox | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Chad Young | Baltimore Orioles | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Dan Szymborski | Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| David Gerth | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Boston Red Sox |
| David Laurila | Baltimore Orioles | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Davy Andrews | Minnesota Twins | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Eric Longenhagen | Detroit Tigers | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Esteban Rivera | New York Yankees | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Jake Mailhot | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| James Fegan | Boston Red Sox | Arizona Diamondbacks | Boston Red Sox |
| Jason Martinez | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Boston Red Sox |
| Jay Jaffe | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Toronto Blue Jays | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Joe Orrico | Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Jon Becker | Boston Red Sox | Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks |
| Jordan Rosenblum | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Justin Mason | Texas Rangers | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Kiri Oler | Texas Rangers | Atlanta Braves | Texas Rangers |
| Leo Morgenstern | Minnesota Twins | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Matt Martell | New York Yankees | Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Yankees |
| Meg Rowley | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Michael Baumann | Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Michael Rosen | Seattle Mariners | New York Mets | New York Mets |
| Mike Podhorzer | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Paul Sporer | Tampa Bay Rays | Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks |
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
Well, now we know what everyone is asking Jason Martinez about in his next RosterResource chat.
Hell yeah, Jason! Love some bold predictions.
There’s bold and then there’s “I picked the Angels to win the division when no one else picked them to make the playoffs”…
Michael Rosen has the Angels as the 3rd wild-card. But Martinez is also the only one to not pick the Dodgers to win the division, but he does have the Dodgers winning the NL pennant.
Something about Martinez and LA?
No I missed one. One other playoff prediction…
Heck yeah. Next Friday. I’m ready.