The FanGraphs 2026 Staff Predictions
After an offseason marked by some funky free agent contract structures, a few big trades, and a bunch more handwringing over the Los Angeles Dodgers, the 2026 season is upon us; we made it. And on this, the morning of Opening Day (sorry, Netflix), we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule by trying to predict the year ahead in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Such is the prognostication business.
I asked our staff to predict the playoff field, as well as the pennant and World Series winners, and the individual award recipients. Twenty-five of our writers from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in. Here are the results. Please note that the tables at the end showing the full writer ballots are sortable.
American League
American League West
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| Texas Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Athletics | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
American League Central
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 18 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 24 |
| Kansas City Royals | 6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
American League East
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 21 |
| Boston Red Sox | 9 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| New York Yankees | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 22 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
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American League No. 1 Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 10 |
| Detroit Tigers | 5 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 4 |
| Boston Red Sox | 4 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1 |
| New York Yankees | 1 |
American League No. 2 Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 8 |
| New York Yankees | 5 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 4 |
| Boston Red Sox | 4 |
| Detroit Tigers | 4 |
National League
National League West
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| San Diego Padres | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
National League Central
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 14 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 22 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 9 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 20 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| St Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
National League East
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 17 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 8 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 23 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
National League No. 1 Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 23 |
| New York Mets | 1 |
| Chicago Cubs | 1 |
National League No. 2 Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| New York Mets | 12 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 5 |
| Chicago Cubs | 4 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 2 |
| San Diego Padres | 1 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
Pennant and World Series Winners
American League Pennant Winner
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 10 |
| Detroit Tigers | 5 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 4 |
| Boston Red Sox | 4 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1 |
| New York Yankees | 1 |
National League Pennant Winner
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 15 |
| New York Mets | 5 |
| Chicago Cubs | 2 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 2 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 |
World Series Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 6 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 3 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 3 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. New York Mets | 2 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets | 1 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago Cubs | 1 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets | 1 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs | 1 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets | 1 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
World Series Winner
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 9 |
| Seattle Mariners | 6 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 3 |
| New York Mets | 3 |
| Detroit Tigers | 2 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1 |
Individual Awards
American League MVP
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 11 |
| Aaron Judge | 6 |
| Wyatt Langford | 2 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1 |
| Junior Caminero | 1 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 1 |
| José Ramírez | 1 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 1 |
| Tarik Skubal | 1 |
American League Cy Young
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet | 10 |
| Tarik Skubal | 8 |
| Cole Ragans | 3 |
| Dylan Cease | 1 |
| Jacob deGrom | 1 |
| George Kirby | 1 |
| Bryan Woo | 1 |
American League Rookie of the Year
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle | 12 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 5 |
| Samuel Basallo | 2 |
| Carter Jensen | 2 |
| Colt Emerson | 1 |
| Tatsuya Imai | 1 |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1 |
| Payton Tolle | 1 |
National League MVP
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 18 |
| Juan Soto | 4 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2 |
| Ketel Marte | 1 |
National League Cy Young
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | 13 |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 4 |
| Logan Webb | 2 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 2 |
| Andrew Abbott | 1 |
| Jesús Luzardo | 1 |
| Nolan McLean | 1 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 1 |
National League Rookie of the Year
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | 13 |
| Konnor Griffin | 4 |
| JJ Wetherholt | 4 |
| Sal Stewart | 2 |
| Carson Benge | 1 |
| Bubba Chandler | 1 |
Staff Predictions – Full Ballots
American League Full Writer Ballots
| Writer | West | Central | East | WC1 | WC2 | WC3 | 1 Seed | 2 Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | SEA | DET | NYY | BOS | TOR | BAL | SEA | NYY |
| Ben Clemens | SEA | KCR | TOR | NYY | DET | TBR | TOR | SEA |
| Brendan Gawlowski | SEA | DET | NYY | TOR | BOS | KCR | NYY | SEA |
| Chad Young | SEA | DET | TOR | KCR | BOS | NYY | SEA | DET |
| Dan Szymborski | SEA | DET | BOS | TOR | HOU | BAL | BOS | SEA |
| David Laurila | SEA | DET | BOS | TOR | CLE | NYY | SEA | DET |
| Davy Andrews | SEA | DET | BOS | TOR | NYY | BAL | BOS | DET |
| Eric Longenhagen | ATH | DET | TOR | BAL | SEA | BOS | DET | TOR |
| Jake Mailhot | SEA | DET | TOR | BOS | NYY | BAL | TOR | SEA |
| James Fegan | SEA | DET | NYY | BOS | TOR | KCR | SEA | NYY |
| Jason Martinez | TEX | DET | NYY | SEA | BOS | KCR | DET | NYY |
| Jay Jaffe | SEA | KCR | TOR | NYY | DET | BOS | TOR | SEA |
| Jeff Zimmerman | SEA | CLE | TOR | DET | NYY | TEX | TOR | SEA |
| Joe Orrico | SEA | KCR | TOR | NYY | DET | TEX | SEA | TOR |
| Jon Becker | SEA | DET | BOS | BAL | TOR | NYY | DET | BOS |
| Jordan Rosenblum | SEA | DET | NYY | BAL | TOR | BOS | SEA | NYY |
| Justin Mason | SEA | DET | TOR | NYY | KCR | BOS | DET | TOR |
| Kiri Oler | SEA | KCR | BOS | NYY | DET | BAL | SEA | BOS |
| Matt Martell | SEA | DET | NYY | TOR | BOS | KCR | SEA | NYY |
| Meg Rowley | SEA | DET | BOS | TOR | NYY | KCR | BOS | SEA |
| Michael Baumann | SEA | DET | TOR | BOS | KCR | NYY | DET | TOR |
| Michael Rosen | SEA | DET | BAL | NYY | TOR | KCR | BAL | DET |
| Paul Sporer | SEA | DET | BOS | NYY | BAL | HOU | BOS | SEA |
| Ryan Blake | SEA | KCR | BOS | TOR | DET | TBR | SEA | BOS |
| Vlad Sedler | SEA | KCR | BOS | BAL | NYY | HOU | SEA | BOS |
American League Individual Awards
| Writer | MVP | Cy Young | ROY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | Aaron Judge | Tarik Skubal | Kevin McGonigle |
| Ben Clemens | Aaron Judge | Cole Ragans | Kazuma Okamoto |
| Brendan Gawlowski | Aaron Judge | Cole Ragans | Kevin McGonigle |
| Chad Young | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Tarik Skubal | Kevin McGonigle |
| Dan Szymborski | Bobby Witt Jr. | Tarik Skubal | Kevin McGonigle |
| David Laurila | Bobby Witt Jr. | Tarik Skubal | Carter Jensen |
| Davy Andrews | Aaron Judge | Cole Ragans | Samuel Basallo |
| Eric Longenhagen | Bobby Witt Jr. | Dylan Cease | Kevin McGonigle |
| Jake Mailhot | Junior Caminero | Garrett Crochet | Kevin McGonigle |
| James Fegan | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Payton Tolle |
| Jason Martinez | Wyatt Langford | Jacob deGrom | Kevin McGonigle |
| Jay Jaffe | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Carter Jensen |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Bobby Witt Jr. | Bryan Woo | Colt Emerson |
| Joe Orrico | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Kevin McGonigle |
| Jon Becker | José Ramírez | Garrett Crochet | Samuel Basallo |
| Jordan Rosenblum | Aaron Judge | Tarik Skubal | Munetaka Murakami |
| Justin Mason | Bobby Witt Jr. | Tarik Skubal | Kazuma Okamoto |
| Kiri Oler | Gunnar Henderson | Garrett Crochet | Kazuma Okamoto |
| Matt Martell | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Kevin McGonigle |
| Meg Rowley | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Kevin McGonigle |
| Michael Baumann | Aaron Judge | Garrett Crochet | Kazuma Okamoto |
| Michael Rosen | Tarik Skubal | Tarik Skubal | Tatsuya Imai |
| Paul Sporer | Wyatt Langford | George Kirby | Kevin McGonigle |
| Ryan Blake | Julio Rodríguez | Tarik Skubal | Kevin McGonigle |
| Vlad Sedler | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Kazuma Okamoto |
National League Full Writer Ballots
| Writer | West | Central | East | WC1 | WC2 | WC3 | 1 Seed | 2 Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | LAD | CHC | NYM | PHI | ATL | PIT | LAD | NYM |
| Ben Clemens | LAD | MIL | NYM | PHI | ARI | SFG | LAD | NYM |
| Brendan Gawlowski | LAD | MIL | NYM | PHI | CHC | SDP | LAD | NYM |
| Chad Young | LAD | CHC | PHI | NYM | ATL | MIL | LAD | PHI |
| Dan Szymborski | LAD | CHC | PHI | NYM | MIL | SFG | LAD | CHC |
| David Laurila | LAD | CHC | NYM | ATL | MIL | SDP | LAD | CHC |
| Davy Andrews | LAD | CHC | NYM | MIL | PHI | CIN | LAD | CHC |
| Eric Longenhagen | LAD | MIL | NYM | ARI | PIT | CHC | LAD | MIL |
| Jake Mailhot | LAD | CHC | NYM | PHI | MIL | SDP | LAD | NYM |
| James Fegan | LAD | MIL | NYM | CHC | PHI | PIT | LAD | NYM |
| Jason Martinez | SDP | PIT | NYM | PHI | LAD | CHC | NYM | SDP |
| Jay Jaffe | LAD | MIL | NYM | CHC | PHI | PIT | LAD | NYM |
| Jeff Zimmerman | LAD | MIL | PHI | NYM | ATL | SDP | LAD | MIL |
| Joe Orrico | LAD | MIL | PHI | ATL | NYM | CHC | LAD | PHI |
| Jon Becker | LAD | CHC | NYM | PHI | ATL | MIL | LAD | NYM |
| Jordan Rosenblum | LAD | MIL | NYM | ATL | PHI | CHC | LAD | NYM |
| Justin Mason | LAD | CHC | PHI | NYM | MIL | ARI | LAD | PHI |
| Kiri Oler | LAD | CHC | NYM | PHI | MIL | ARI | LAD | NYM |
| Matt Martell | LAD | PIT | NYM | PHI | ARI | CIN | LAD | NYM |
| Meg Rowley | LAD | CHC | NYM | PHI | MIL | ARI | LAD | NYM |
| Michael Baumann | LAD | CHC | PHI | NYM | MIL | CIN | LAD | PHI |
| Michael Rosen | LAD | CHC | NYM | SDP | PHI | PIT | LAD | NYM |
| Paul Sporer | LAD | CHC | PHI | NYM | SDP | PIT | CHC | LAD |
| Ryan Blake | LAD | MIL | PHI | NYM | CHC | ATL | LAD | PHI |
| Vlad Sedler | LAD | CHC | NYM | PHI | MIL | ATL | LAD | CHC |
National League Individual Awards
| Writer | MVP | Cy Young | ROY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Konnor Griffin |
| Ben Clemens | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Nolan McLean |
| Brendan Gawlowski | Juan Soto | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Konnor Griffin |
| Chad Young | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Sal Stewart |
| Dan Szymborski | Shohei Ohtani | Logan Webb | JJ Wetherholt |
| David Laurila | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | JJ Wetherholt |
| Davy Andrews | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Nolan McLean |
| Eric Longenhagen | Ketel Marte | Paul Skenes | Nolan McLean |
| Jake Mailhot | Shohei Ohtani | Cristopher Sánchez | Nolan McLean |
| James Fegan | Juan Soto | Paul Skenes | JJ Wetherholt |
| Jason Martinez | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Sal Stewart |
| Jay Jaffe | Juan Soto | Cristopher Sánchez | Nolan McLean |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Shohei Ohtani | Shohei Ohtani | Carson Benge |
| Joe Orrico | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | JJ Wetherholt |
| Jon Becker | Shohei Ohtani | Logan Webb | Nolan McLean |
| Jordan Rosenblum | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Nolan McLean |
| Justin Mason | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Nolan McLean |
| Kiri Oler | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Nolan McLean |
| Matt Martell | Juan Soto | Paul Skenes | Konnor Griffin |
| Meg Rowley | Shohei Ohtani | Cristopher Sánchez | Nolan McLean |
| Michael Baumann | Shohei Ohtani | Andrew Abbott | Nolan McLean |
| Michael Rosen | Shohei Ohtani | Nolan McLean | Nolan McLean |
| Paul Sporer | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Jesús Luzardo | Bubba Chandler |
| Ryan Blake | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Nolan McLean |
| Vlad Sedler | Shohei Ohtani | Cristopher Sánchez | Konnor Griffin |
Pennant and World Series Winners
| Writer | AL Pennant Winner | NL Pennant Winner | World Series Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Ben Clemens | Toronto Blue Jays | Los Angeles Dodgers | Toronto Blue Jays |
| Brendan Gawlowski | New York Yankees | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Chad Young | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Dan Szymborski | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| David Laurila | Detroit Tigers | Chicago Cubs | Detroit Tigers |
| Davy Andrews | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Eric Longenhagen | Detroit Tigers | Arizona Diamondbacks | Detroit Tigers |
| Jake Mailhot | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| James Fegan | Toronto Blue Jays | New York Mets | New York Mets |
| Jason Martinez | Seattle Mariners | New York Mets | Seattle Mariners |
| Jay Jaffe | Seattle Mariners | New York Mets | Seattle Mariners |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Toronto Blue Jays | Los Angeles Dodgers | Toronto Blue Jays |
| Joe Orrico | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Seattle Mariners |
| Jon Becker | Detroit Tigers | New York Mets | New York Mets |
| Jordan Rosenblum | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Justin Mason | Detroit Tigers | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Kiri Oler | Seattle Mariners | Philadelphia Phillies | Seattle Mariners |
| Matt Martell | Toronto Blue Jays | Los Angeles Dodgers | Toronto Blue Jays |
| Meg Rowley | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Boston Red Sox |
| Michael Baumann | Detroit Tigers | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Michael Rosen | Baltimore Orioles | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Paul Sporer | Seattle Mariners | Chicago Cubs | Seattle Mariners |
| Ryan Blake | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Seattle Mariners |
| Vlad Sedler | Boston Red Sox | New York Mets | New York Mets |
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
I see Eric Longenhagen picking the A’s to win the West… and I’m torn between “Eric has lost his mind” and “Eric knows a LOT more about baseball than me, maybe I should place a wager.” 🙂
Picked the backs to win the NL pennant too.
Can’t both be true?