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The FanGraphs 2026 Staff Predictions

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

After an offseason marked by some funky free agent contract structures, a few big trades, and a bunch more handwringing over the Los Angeles Dodgers, the 2026 season is upon us; we made it. And on this, the morning of Opening Day (sorry, Netflix), we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule by trying to predict the year ahead in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Such is the prognostication business.

I asked our staff to predict the playoff field, as well as the pennant and World Series winners, and the individual award recipients. Twenty-five of our writers from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in. Here are the results. Please note that the tables at the end showing the full writer ballots are sortable.

American League

American League West
Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Wild Card 3 Playoffs
Seattle Mariners 23 1 1 0 25
Texas Rangers 1 0 0 2 3
Athletics 1 0 0 0 1
Houston Astros 0 0 1 2 3
Los Angeles Angels 0 0 0 0 0

American League Central
Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Wild Card 3 Playoffs
Detroit Tigers 18 1 5 0 24
Kansas City Royals 6 1 2 6 15
Cleveland Guardians 1 0 1 0 2
Chicago White Sox 0 0 0 0 0
Minnesota Twins 0 0 0 0 0

American League East
Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Wild Card 3 Playoffs
Toronto Blue Jays 9 7 5 0 21
Boston Red Sox 9 4 4 4 21
New York Yankees 6 7 5 4 22
Baltimore Orioles 1 4 1 5 11
Tampa Bay Rays 0 0 0 2 2

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American League No. 1 Seed
Team Votes
Seattle Mariners 10
Detroit Tigers 5
Toronto Blue Jays 4
Boston Red Sox 4
Baltimore Orioles 1
New York Yankees 1

American League No. 2 Seed
Team Votes
Seattle Mariners 8
New York Yankees 5
Toronto Blue Jays 4
Boston Red Sox 4
Detroit Tigers 4

National League

National League West
Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Wild Card 3 Playoffs
Los Angeles Dodgers 24 0 1 0 25
San Diego Padres 1 1 1 4 7
Arizona Diamondbacks 0 1 2 3 6
San Francisco Giants 0 0 0 2 2
Colorado Rockies 0 0 0 0 0

National League Central
Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Wild Card 3 Playoffs
Chicago Cubs 14 2 2 4 22
Milwaukee Brewers 9 1 8 2 20
Pittsburgh Pirates 2 0 1 5 8
Cincinnati Reds 0 0 0 3 3
St Louis Cardinals 0 0 0 0 0

National League East
Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Wild Card 3 Playoffs
New York Mets 17 7 1 0 25
Philadelphia Phillies 8 10 5 0 23
Atlanta Braves 0 3 4 2 9
Washington Nationals 0 0 0 0 0
Miami Marlins 0 0 0 0 0

National League No. 1 Seed
Team Votes
Los Angeles Dodgers 23
New York Mets 1
Chicago Cubs 1

National League No. 2 Seed
Team Votes
New York Mets 12
Philadelphia Phillies 5
Chicago Cubs 4
Milwaukee Brewers 2
San Diego Padres 1
Los Angeles Dodgers 1

Pennant and World Series Winners

American League Pennant Winner
Team Votes
Seattle Mariners 10
Detroit Tigers 5
Toronto Blue Jays 4
Boston Red Sox 4
Baltimore Orioles 1
New York Yankees 1

National League Pennant Winner
Team Votes
Los Angeles Dodgers 15
New York Mets 5
Chicago Cubs 2
Philadelphia Phillies 2
Arizona Diamondbacks 1

World Series Matchups
Matchup Votes
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 6
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 3
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 3
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Mets 2
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets 1
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago Cubs 1
Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies 1
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 1
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets 1
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 1
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs 1
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 1
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets 1
Detroit Tigers vs. Philadelphia Phillies 1
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 1

World Series Winner
Team Votes
Los Angeles Dodgers 9
Seattle Mariners 6
Toronto Blue Jays 3
New York Mets 3
Detroit Tigers 2
Philadelphia Phillies 1
Boston Red Sox 1

Individual Awards

American League Cy Young
Player Votes
Garrett Crochet 10
Tarik Skubal 8
Cole Ragans 3
Dylan Cease 1
Jacob deGrom 1
George Kirby 1
Bryan Woo 1

American League Rookie of the Year

National League MVP

National League Cy Young

National League Rookie of the Year
Player Votes
Nolan McLean 13
Konnor Griffin 4
JJ Wetherholt 4
Sal Stewart 2
Carson Benge 1
Bubba Chandler 1

Staff Predictions – Full Ballots

American League Full Writer Ballots
Writer West Central East WC1 WC2 WC3 1 Seed 2 Seed
Ariel Cohen SEA DET NYY BOS TOR BAL SEA NYY
Ben Clemens SEA KCR TOR NYY DET TBR TOR SEA
Brendan Gawlowski SEA DET NYY TOR BOS KCR NYY SEA
Chad Young SEA DET TOR KCR BOS NYY SEA DET
Dan Szymborski SEA DET BOS TOR HOU BAL BOS SEA
David Laurila SEA DET BOS TOR CLE NYY SEA DET
Davy Andrews SEA DET BOS TOR NYY BAL BOS DET
Eric Longenhagen ATH DET TOR BAL SEA BOS DET TOR
Jake Mailhot SEA DET TOR BOS NYY BAL TOR SEA
James Fegan SEA DET NYY BOS TOR KCR SEA NYY
Jason Martinez TEX DET NYY SEA BOS KCR DET NYY
Jay Jaffe SEA KCR TOR NYY DET BOS TOR SEA
Jeff Zimmerman SEA CLE TOR DET NYY TEX TOR SEA
Joe Orrico SEA KCR TOR NYY DET TEX SEA TOR
Jon Becker SEA DET BOS BAL TOR NYY DET BOS
Jordan Rosenblum SEA DET NYY BAL TOR BOS SEA NYY
Justin Mason SEA DET TOR NYY KCR BOS DET TOR
Kiri Oler SEA KCR BOS NYY DET BAL SEA BOS
Matt Martell SEA DET NYY TOR BOS KCR SEA NYY
Meg Rowley SEA DET BOS TOR NYY KCR BOS SEA
Michael Baumann SEA DET TOR BOS KCR NYY DET TOR
Michael Rosen SEA DET BAL NYY TOR KCR BAL DET
Paul Sporer SEA DET BOS NYY BAL HOU BOS SEA
Ryan Blake SEA KCR BOS TOR DET TBR SEA BOS
Vlad Sedler SEA KCR BOS BAL NYY HOU SEA BOS

American League Individual Awards
Writer MVP Cy Young ROY
Ariel Cohen Aaron Judge Tarik Skubal Kevin McGonigle
Ben Clemens Aaron Judge Cole Ragans Kazuma Okamoto
Brendan Gawlowski Aaron Judge Cole Ragans Kevin McGonigle
Chad Young Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Tarik Skubal Kevin McGonigle
Dan Szymborski Bobby Witt Jr. Tarik Skubal Kevin McGonigle
David Laurila Bobby Witt Jr. Tarik Skubal Carter Jensen
Davy Andrews Aaron Judge Cole Ragans Samuel Basallo
Eric Longenhagen Bobby Witt Jr. Dylan Cease Kevin McGonigle
Jake Mailhot Junior Caminero Garrett Crochet Kevin McGonigle
James Fegan Bobby Witt Jr. Garrett Crochet Payton Tolle
Jason Martinez Wyatt Langford Jacob deGrom Kevin McGonigle
Jay Jaffe Bobby Witt Jr. Garrett Crochet Carter Jensen
Jeff Zimmerman Bobby Witt Jr. Bryan Woo Colt Emerson
Joe Orrico Bobby Witt Jr. Garrett Crochet Kevin McGonigle
Jon Becker José Ramírez Garrett Crochet Samuel Basallo
Jordan Rosenblum Aaron Judge Tarik Skubal Munetaka Murakami
Justin Mason Bobby Witt Jr. Tarik Skubal Kazuma Okamoto
Kiri Oler Gunnar Henderson Garrett Crochet Kazuma Okamoto
Matt Martell Bobby Witt Jr. Garrett Crochet Kevin McGonigle
Meg Rowley Bobby Witt Jr. Garrett Crochet Kevin McGonigle
Michael Baumann Aaron Judge Garrett Crochet Kazuma Okamoto
Michael Rosen Tarik Skubal Tarik Skubal Tatsuya Imai
Paul Sporer Wyatt Langford George Kirby Kevin McGonigle
Ryan Blake Julio Rodríguez Tarik Skubal Kevin McGonigle
Vlad Sedler Bobby Witt Jr. Garrett Crochet Kazuma Okamoto

National League Full Writer Ballots
Writer West Central East WC1 WC2 WC3 1 Seed 2 Seed
Ariel Cohen LAD CHC NYM PHI ATL PIT LAD NYM
Ben Clemens LAD MIL NYM PHI ARI SFG LAD NYM
Brendan Gawlowski LAD MIL NYM PHI CHC SDP LAD NYM
Chad Young LAD CHC PHI NYM ATL MIL LAD PHI
Dan Szymborski LAD CHC PHI NYM MIL SFG LAD CHC
David Laurila LAD CHC NYM ATL MIL SDP LAD CHC
Davy Andrews LAD CHC NYM MIL PHI CIN LAD CHC
Eric Longenhagen LAD MIL NYM ARI PIT CHC LAD MIL
Jake Mailhot LAD CHC NYM PHI MIL SDP LAD NYM
James Fegan LAD MIL NYM CHC PHI PIT LAD NYM
Jason Martinez SDP PIT NYM PHI LAD CHC NYM SDP
Jay Jaffe LAD MIL NYM CHC PHI PIT LAD NYM
Jeff Zimmerman LAD MIL PHI NYM ATL SDP LAD MIL
Joe Orrico LAD MIL PHI ATL NYM CHC LAD PHI
Jon Becker LAD CHC NYM PHI ATL MIL LAD NYM
Jordan Rosenblum LAD MIL NYM ATL PHI CHC LAD NYM
Justin Mason LAD CHC PHI NYM MIL ARI LAD PHI
Kiri Oler LAD CHC NYM PHI MIL ARI LAD NYM
Matt Martell LAD PIT NYM PHI ARI CIN LAD NYM
Meg Rowley LAD CHC NYM PHI MIL ARI LAD NYM
Michael Baumann LAD CHC PHI NYM MIL CIN LAD PHI
Michael Rosen LAD CHC NYM SDP PHI PIT LAD NYM
Paul Sporer LAD CHC PHI NYM SDP PIT CHC LAD
Ryan Blake LAD MIL PHI NYM CHC ATL LAD PHI
Vlad Sedler LAD CHC NYM PHI MIL ATL LAD CHC

National League Individual Awards
Writer MVP Cy Young ROY
Ariel Cohen Shohei Ohtani Paul Skenes Konnor Griffin
Ben Clemens Shohei Ohtani Paul Skenes Nolan McLean
Brendan Gawlowski Juan Soto Yoshinobu Yamamoto Konnor Griffin
Chad Young Shohei Ohtani Paul Skenes Sal Stewart
Dan Szymborski Shohei Ohtani Logan Webb JJ Wetherholt
David Laurila Fernando Tatis Jr. Yoshinobu Yamamoto JJ Wetherholt
Davy Andrews Shohei Ohtani Paul Skenes Nolan McLean
Eric Longenhagen Ketel Marte Paul Skenes Nolan McLean
Jake Mailhot Shohei Ohtani Cristopher Sánchez Nolan McLean
James Fegan Juan Soto Paul Skenes JJ Wetherholt
Jason Martinez Shohei Ohtani Paul Skenes Sal Stewart
Jay Jaffe Juan Soto Cristopher Sánchez Nolan McLean
Jeff Zimmerman Shohei Ohtani Shohei Ohtani Carson Benge
Joe Orrico Shohei Ohtani Paul Skenes JJ Wetherholt
Jon Becker Shohei Ohtani Logan Webb Nolan McLean
Jordan Rosenblum Shohei Ohtani Paul Skenes Nolan McLean
Justin Mason Shohei Ohtani Paul Skenes Nolan McLean
Kiri Oler Shohei Ohtani Paul Skenes Nolan McLean
Matt Martell Juan Soto Paul Skenes Konnor Griffin
Meg Rowley Shohei Ohtani Cristopher Sánchez Nolan McLean
Michael Baumann Shohei Ohtani Andrew Abbott Nolan McLean
Michael Rosen Shohei Ohtani Nolan McLean Nolan McLean
Paul Sporer Fernando Tatis Jr. Jesús Luzardo Bubba Chandler
Ryan Blake Shohei Ohtani Paul Skenes Nolan McLean
Vlad Sedler Shohei Ohtani Cristopher Sánchez Konnor Griffin

Pennant and World Series Winners
Writer AL Pennant Winner NL Pennant Winner World Series Winner
Ariel Cohen Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
Ben Clemens Toronto Blue Jays Los Angeles Dodgers Toronto Blue Jays
Brendan Gawlowski New York Yankees Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
Chad Young Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
Dan Szymborski Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
David Laurila Detroit Tigers Chicago Cubs Detroit Tigers
Davy Andrews Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
Eric Longenhagen Detroit Tigers Arizona Diamondbacks Detroit Tigers
Jake Mailhot Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
James Fegan Toronto Blue Jays New York Mets New York Mets
Jason Martinez Seattle Mariners New York Mets Seattle Mariners
Jay Jaffe Seattle Mariners New York Mets Seattle Mariners
Jeff Zimmerman Toronto Blue Jays Los Angeles Dodgers Toronto Blue Jays
Joe Orrico Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Dodgers Seattle Mariners
Jon Becker Detroit Tigers New York Mets New York Mets
Jordan Rosenblum Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
Justin Mason Detroit Tigers Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies
Kiri Oler Seattle Mariners Philadelphia Phillies Seattle Mariners
Matt Martell Toronto Blue Jays Los Angeles Dodgers Toronto Blue Jays
Meg Rowley Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Dodgers Boston Red Sox
Michael Baumann Detroit Tigers Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
Michael Rosen Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
Paul Sporer Seattle Mariners Chicago Cubs Seattle Mariners
Ryan Blake Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Dodgers Seattle Mariners
Vlad Sedler Boston Red Sox New York Mets New York Mets





Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.

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Athletics Fan Surrounded by GuardiansMember since 2025
2 hours ago

I see Eric Longenhagen picking the A’s to win the West… and I’m torn between “Eric has lost his mind” and “Eric knows a LOT more about baseball than me, maybe I should place a wager.” 🙂

kenkenkenMember since 2021
2 hours ago

Picked the backs to win the NL pennant too.

Jasper FranciscoMember since 2017
1 hour ago

Can’t both be true?