The Indians Should Trade for Manny Machado
Since the Orioles started listening to offers for Manny Machado, people have been trying to find the best trade partner for Baltimore to match up with. Unfortunately for Dan Duquette, the list of teams that have a glaring need at either SS or 3B and are in position to pay what it will take to land a one-year rental is pretty short. Teams like the Astros, Dodgers, Nationals, Red Sox, and Cubs are pretty well set on the left side of the infield. Peter Angelos doesn’t want Machado on the Yankees. The Phillies make sense as a bidder for Machado next year, but not really this year.
That has led to a situation where teams like the White Sox and Diamondbacks are being mentioned as leading suitors, even though they don’t really fit what we’d think a Machado buyer would look like. The Cubs and Red Sox have gotten some mentions, but deals with those teams don’t actually make all that much sense. Especially with the Orioles apparently looking for big-league ready pitching in exchange, finding a team that lines up with Baltimore on a trade for their franchise player isn’t particularly easy.
But there’s one team that has the assets Baltimore is looking for, the incentive to make a substantial upgrade in 2018, and a spot for Machado in their line-up. The team that should land Manny Machado? The Cleveland Indians.
The Indians are already in a strong position for 2018, currently projected for 93 wins, the third-highest total in MLB. They don’t need Machado in the sense that they won’t win without him. But while they’ve got a strong core to sustain contention for a while, if the Indians want to bring a World Series title home, 2018 might be their best shot for a while.
The team has young stars in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, plus Corey Kluber is locked up through 2021, so there’s no big crash coming, but the team’s role players stand to get significantly worse after this season. Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, the pillars of the team’s bullpen, are both eligible for free agency at the end of the year, and both will likely be priced out of what Cleveland is comfortable paying. Edwin Encarnacion is 35 this year, and the team probably can’t count on him hitting at his recent levels forever. Jason Kipnis isn’t getting any younger, and they can’t be sure that Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar’s arms will continue to hold together.
The 2019 Indians will likely be worse than the 2018 squad, and at the same time, their AL opponents are likely only to get even stronger. The Astros have elite prospects Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley on the way to offset their potential loss of Dallas Keuchel. The Yankees are clearing room under the luxury tax so they can get in on the bidding for Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, Clayton Kershaw, or Manny Machado next winter. The Red Sox get to clear $40 million in dead money from their books next winter when the Hanley Ramirez/Pablo Sandoval contracts expire, and they will likely reallocate that towards another premium free agent.
The AL has some strong contenders now, but a year from now, the competition could be even more formidable, and the Indians should probably take their shot to win it all before the big money contenders create an even more difficult path to the title.
And, unlike the other teams in similar situations, the Indians have a pretty easy path to acquiring Machado. Jose Ramirez could easily slide back to second base, opening up third base for Machado, and giving the team likely the best infield in Major League Baseball. Yandy Diaz’s minor league numbers and exit velocity make him an interesting long-term play, but he could still serve as a useful utility infielder and platoon-mate for whatever left-handed first baseman the team signs, so Machado wouldn’t be displacing or replacing a high-quality player, as he would have to in other cities.
And the Indians are one of the few teams with the kind of MLB-ready pitching depth the Orioles are apparently looking for. A package built around Mike Clevinger or Danny Salazar should get Dan Duquette’s attention, and the Indians have enough good arms to spare either one. Toss in some secondary pieces with a bit lesser value — maybe expendable young guys like Erik Gonzalez and Greg Allen — who could make Baltimore’s roster this year, and the Indians have enough pieces that aren’t low-level prospects that should get Baltimore interested.
Of course, one could reasonably argue that the Orioles should just give up on any short-term goals, given today’s news about Zach Britton blowing out his achilles tendon. Even if they decided to pivot towards long-term prospects, the Indians have plenty of talent a bit further away as well. KATOH favorite Yu-Cheng Chang could be a particularly interesting fit as a replacement for Machado, for instance.
Given their revenues, the Indians aren’t going to be players for the top-end free agents still on the market, so trading for Machado is one of the few substantial upgrades the team can realistically make. And given their chance to win now, in the last year that they’ll have Miller and Allen anchoring the back of their bullpen, the Indians shouldn’t just be content to roll into October with a good team and hope for the best.
The Astros are already a behemoth. The Yankees will be one soon. There’s a window here for Cleveland to take advantage of their depth, and 2018 looks like their best shot to bring a championship back to Ohio. It’s not every day a guy like Machado becomes available and you don’t have to bid against the big boys to acquire him. There’s a unique opportunity here for the Indians, and they should seize it while they still can.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Great take, Dave. Tangential comment/question – Hanley’s 2019 option will vest with 497 additional plate appearances. Assuming health, whcih is a big assumption, do you think the Red Sox will deliberately keep his PA down to free up enough room under the cap to make a run at a top free agent next offseason? Thank you.
As a Red Sox fan, do you think they won’t?
Of course they will.
This isn’t just nickel-and-diming a player on the odd million or so. This is the only rational approach to take.
As a tribe fan, I’ve been mulling this over myself. I think BAL would probably be more interested in Mejia or McKenzie. But what really has me interested is whether CLE could swing a deal for both Machado and Jones. I’d be curious what your thoughts are Dave on whether CL could afford that, and whether they would pony that up. If they’re going for it in 2018, why not push all the chips in and upgrade at CF and 3B. And, heck, if they can hold on to Kipnis through all of that, they could potentially swing him for a decent prospect or two to replenish the system, or try him at 1B/LF (though I still think he’s trade bait moreso than anything at this point)
Jones is a pretty terrible CF at this point. Better to have him in a corner, keep Zimmer in CF.
Or not trade for Jones at all. Trading for McCutchen would be a better bet.
Dave, really interesting trade idea.
Sandoval’s contract is 5 years (Hanley’s was 4 from the same offseason) with a 2020 option, so it doesn’t look like the Red Sox will be free of his salary next offseason.
Cot’s link for Panda: http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl-west/san-francisco-giants/
Sad but true.
I agree with this, but there’s really no reason for Cleveland to stop with Machado. They have a hole at first base and/or left field (and depending on your faith in Chisenhall, in right) and a couple of people who can handle second. Jay Bruce was a great fit for them last year, Jose Abreu is on the trade market, and maybe Hosmer needs to take a pillow deal. Maybe they can use Kipnis to restock their farm system. Without the money committed to Santana, this is a team that should be on the move.
I agree that Cleveland should be aggressive but I’m not sure management sees it that way. They’re already at last year’s payroll and they’ll want to save some money for mid-season acquisitions. And they’re probably still wanting to sign Lindor to an extension. Trading Kipnis would free up some money but given his current value they’d probably have to give him away.
If they wanted to give away Kipnis (or accept a small prospect return) to sign Jay Bruce, that would probably do it. Or trade Kipnis for an outfielder with a similar contract to him.
Cleveland’s ownership hasn’t exactly been known as free spenders, but this is the time to do it, right? But of course, it’s also not my money.
If all they´re doing is essentially swapping Kipnis’ contract for Jay Bruce, I´m not sure I´d do that. Yeah, Bruce was better than Kipnis last year. But he was basically worthless from 2014 to 2016. So there’s considerable downside to Bruce. Whereas Kipnis, if healthy, can be 3 to 5 WAR player.
But probably not in left field/ at first base. Although you could move Ramirez back to left field.
Definitely a lot of movable parts there. Barring any big moves, I think they should just keep Ramirez at 3rd and Kipnis at 2nd. I’m not sure what you gain by having Kipnis learn a new position and turning 3rd over to (likely) Yandy Diaz.
Right. Kipnis was forced into the outfield in the playoffs because of a combination of injuries and questionable decisions. With the team in reasonable health there’s no reason to use that subpar alignment.
Machado would take them to about $145M payroll, well above even last year, which was a record.
With the playoffs being a crapshoot, I’m not sure they would want to spend so much when they’re already a good bet to make the playoffs.
See, I just don’t get this. I know that division is bad and so they’re probably more likely to win the division than any other team in major league baseball, but we’re in the era of the superteam. They’d be in the right place to put together a lineup, rotation, and defense of death. They’re never going to get another chance this good.
But as I mentioned above, this is awfully easy to say when it’s not my money.
As a tribe fan, here’s my ideal scenario: they deal some prospects (but must hold onto either Mejia or McKenzie (I prefer Mejia)) and some misc (like Chiz) to land Jones and Machado. They then swap Kipnis to NYM for Flores and perhaps 1 or 2 interest prospects. They then sign a RHP masher like Matt Adams to play 1B. That would upgrade their OF, their 3B situation, and (offensively–arguably–at least) their 1B situation. If they can do that and hold onto much of their current MLB talent, I really like their chances. There’s a lost of risk in that, but there’s a lot of risk in doing nothing too.
Jones doesn’t have a crazy amount of value tbh. 2.5WAR for 17M. Packaging Jones with Machado only probably adds 5M value to the deal.
Yea, I agree that Jones doesn’t carry as much value as Machado. But, that’s part of my point. I think they could get him thrown in as well for not much more and upgrade their OF. He’s aging, but still useful (~.280AVG/25+HRs/typically plays 150+games) and would add stability to their OF this season. Right now, they’re looking at Allen, Brantley, Chiz, Guyer, and Kipnis (?) to play the corners. Jones can help them out and balance out their lineup a bit by adding a RHH. I’m just saying that if you’re going for it, GO FOR IT. BAL can help you out in the OF too, and probably for not much more than it would cost to land Machado, so just do it.
As an O’s fan I agree that Jones is a desirable piece – past his prime but still a quite good player. But I just can’t see the O’s trading him, especially as a “throw in for not much more.” He probably has more value in Baltimore than elsewhere, and Angelos has proven to be really loyal to his long tenured, veteran players. If Jonesy requests a trade, then maybe. But this proposal here will just not happen. Whether it “should” or not is a separate question…
The rational person in me is thinking the Orioles can’t compete in the next few years, and should want longer-term value like Mejia or McKenzie as the headliner in this trade.
The Indians fan in me is thinking, “Sure, take our 4th or 5th SP, a utility guy, and a B-level prospect, and see if they can lead you past the Yankees and Red Sox”. It’s not that the surplus value doesn’t match up, because it does, but the Orioles would be wiser to think longer-term.
When have the Orioles ever made a decision based on what would be wiser?
I’m not convinced the Indians have the depth to trade either Salazar or Clevinger. That would leave them with 5 starters.
So what happens when one or more of them inevitably gets hurt or pitches poorly (I’m looking at you, Josh Tomlin)?
Cody Anderson is coming off Tommy John surgery. Ryan Merritt has pitched well in short stints but has been babied, averaging fewer than 5 innings per start. Who else is there?
If I’m the Indians, I’d rather go the prospect route to get Machado.
I think Tomlin or Merrit is enough at the back-end of the rotation to get them through the regular season, and can be dropped from a playoff rotation. You can never have enough pitching depth, but CLE has as much depth as pretty much anyone.
Also, if they hold onto prospects, that spot in the rotation can be filled by McKenzie mid-2019 or 2020.
I agree with this. I think CLE see a lot of value in Clevinger. He’s got a wicked breaking pitch and will be borderline elite if he can get those BBs under control. Salazar is becoming increasingly necessary to the ‘pen in light of losing Smith and Shaw. Plus, like others here, I think it would take either of Mejia or McKenzie to land Machado.
“Also, if they hold onto prospects, that spot in the rotation can be filled by McKenzie mid-2019 or 2020.”
Well part of Dave’s thesis is that the Indians should be going for it in 2018. And as for pitching depth, we saw in the playoffs a few years ago how quickly that can fall apart.
But how does that thesis make sense? We have seen that one player, like a Machado, isn’t apt to make some huge difference in a short playoff series, where results are very random. Are the White Sox or Twins going to be juggernauts in 2019 where the Indians will need to tear down the team? Anything’s possible, and who knows if the Indians’ pitching health will hold, but I’d see no reason right now why the Indians can’t still be competitive/favorites for the division in 2019 too. I think they’re in a pretty ideal situation with the weakness of the division to take the necessary step of seeing what they have in some of their young players, Diaz, Zimmer, Greg Allen, so that they don’t let a young, cheap player who’s actually capable of playing well get away. McKenzie, Mejia, Salazar, those are guys who can potentially step in to take the place of the Santana, and Millers and Allens that they’ll be losing
Oh I agree. I’m just saying that my comment above re: the Indians pitching depth was in relation to Dave’s thesis.
I made this suggestion in a comment last week in your article about his trade value. so <3 thanks for the respect
As an O’s fan, the team trading Machado to the Indians for a fair package and watching him help them win a WS is the least painful outcome in a terrible situation. Then preferably have him not sign with a team I loathe the next year, though who knows. Thinking about where the O’s are in their rebuild versus where they could and should be is depressing. So many pieces they could have moved, but they waited too long and their value cratered.
Yes. This. If you can get Clevinger and McKenzie and some lower level guys, it’s tough to imagine that not being the best offer. Now, I still think it possible that the o’s will say no, and I think they might offer Manny something like 12/400, independent of whether they trade or keep him. I just expect it not to be the max and him to decline even if it is.
A thought-provoking article.
Another “really roll the dice” option for Machado would be Colorado.
Machado could play his preferred position of SS. Story survive taking a season in a back-up role, in pursuit of a ring, especially given his decline in 2017.
Blackmon, LeMahieu are FAs after 2018, Arenado after 2019.
I think THIS might be the most sensible Machado suitor. The Rockies have a contention window of their own, with the kind of cost-controlled young pitching in place right now that they simply cannot buy in the FA market because, well, you know.
Also, Story would actually be the most sensible centerpiece going back to the O’s, with Brendan Rogers on the way to become the everyday SS for the future. Story plus say Tapia and a low-minor lottery ticket or two could be a decent return for Machado.
If I am the Orioles and the Indians made this offer I would send a limo to Cleveland to make sure it wasn’t rescinded. Clevinger would get my attention, Salazar’s arm is barely attached now, and Gonzalez, who I am higher on than the consensus, could be more valuable than the industry currently thinks.
The Cleveland Browns front office would find a way to muck up the paperwork.
I dont get why the Red Sox are being discounted. Manny is a massive upgrade over Boegarts (only 1 additional year of control) and the Red Sox need a power bat. Dave scoffed at trading Erod and his bad knee for 1 yr of Manny yet proposes 4 years of Clevinger.
Red Sox lose Kimbrel next year and Sale and XB the year after. Might lose Price to an optout this year too and Pedroia is aging rapidly. Their farm system is bare and the window closing as rapidly as Indians.
Bogaerts. (Pass to the left.)
I’m tentatively in favour of a bad-value trade for Machado on a one year deal, but the FO will have to run through infield contortions to make it work for 162 games.
It’s a trade that doesn’t solve any of those other problems. Pedey will still be there. Price will almost certainly still be there. And so on. It certainly doesn’t solve the problem with a reduced farm system — quite the reverse.
I’m tentatively in favor of it on terms that the Orioles won’t accept. And no matter how wishful other teams’ fans are, I suspect the same lack of results will ensue.
Now — July 2018? Who knows? I think the Orioles are bidding too high here, but we shall see.
You never really know how much these things impact roster construction calculus, but all indications are that Manny hates the Red Sox after all the ruckus last year. He’s not able to block a trade of course, but Dombrowski has to think they’d have less of a chance to re-sign him next year, and Cora has to be worried about Manny and Matt Barnes in the same clubhouse.
Please, please, please tell me that Price will exercise his option.
From an on filed perspective I like this idea. From a financial perspective it creates problems for a small market team like the Tribe. Fix this problem and we will see more “baseball” trades and less financial decisions. Fun read.
this is the biggest thing that makes this hard to do. CLE is already at their limit probably.
I just don’t see the need for Cleveland to make a deal like that. The Indians can do nothing and still be prohibitive favorites to win the division over the Twins. To give up multiple young, controllable pieces for a year of Machado seems like a bad idea. It depends on what they could get him for, obviously, but that could put them in a situation where they need a rebuild after 2018. Right now that’s not really the case, depending on health, performance of their existing guys. Sure they lose Allen and Miller next year, but as it stands they can always try Salazar in the bullpen as a replacement. Seems like the best chance to win it all isn’t to go all in this year … but to look to maintain.
If I were them I’d be pretty content to give some of the young guys like Yandy Diaz a chance at the start of the year and just go for some mid-season upgrades. They got Jay Bruce for 2 million and a non-prospect last year.
They should have traded for Ozuna and Bour for a pack of cigarettes.
No mention of Jason Kipnis? What do you do with him? He is signed for 2018 and 19 at $13.5 million and $14.5 million, with a $16.5 million club option for 2020 ($2.5 million) buyout. That’s not exactly a cheap backup, and it seems like Cleveland has been trying to trade him this offseason to no avail, which is unsurprising given his age (31 in April) and disastrous 2017 (injuries, 82 wRC+, 0.7 WAR, negative DRS and UZR).
I could see the Orioles getting Zimmer and maybe Soto for Machado, as well as maybe a few low-minors lottery tickets.