The Man Who’s Saved the Red Sox at Catcher
When I click over to the leaderboards, I see that, right now, Jose Altuve is the major-league leader in wOBA. Which means that, by that measure, Altuve has been baseball’s best hitter, which is absolutely nuts. Not that we didn’t know Altuve was good, but he’s having a Mike Troutian season. Altuve is simultaneously breaking down pitchers and breaking down barriers, and it’s just so much more fun to have him leading the stat than some ordinary muscle-bound giant. It makes us second-guess what’s possible. Lots of things are possible.
Like this. When I click over to the leaderboards, and then significantly drop the minimum number of plate appearances, I see that, right now, the major-league leader in wOBA is Sandy Leon. Unlike Altuve, Leon’s offensive season isn’t “qualified.” So we can’t take it close to so seriously. But you might not understand how ridiculous this is, and you might not understand how critical it’s been for a Red Sox club trying to hang in the race.
Before the season started, I wrote the Positional Power Rankings entry for catchers. The Red Sox slotted in at 19th, neither particularly good nor particularly bad. I thought the bulk of the playing time would go to Blake Swihart. The rest of the time would be more or less split between Ryan Hanigan and Christian Vazquez. Swihart was the up-and-comer with the bat. Vazquez was the defensive specialist. Hanigan was the reliable vet. Those were the three names; Leon’s name was nowhere to be found.
Swihart is done for the season, and before he was done for the season, he was playing left field. The Red Sox weren’t jazzed about his defensive work behind the plate. Vazquez is always defensively steady, but he’s run a 51 wRC+. Hanigan, meanwhile, has run a seemingly impossible 11 wRC+. Hanigan has been horrible. Swihart has been unavailable. Vazquez has been unimpressive. Enter Leon, who’s turned into the regular. The regular with the highest wOBA out of anybody with at least 100 trips to the plate. Leon himself wouldn’t have dreamed this could happen.
I came across a funny quote. From early July:
“Everybody knew he could swing the bat, but what he’s doing…” reliever Matt Barnes said, trailing off and throwing up his arms with a grin. “I don’t think anybody could have predicted this — even him.”
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Relative to the world’s population, of course, Leon is a fantastic hitter. Relative to the major-league population, not so much. I’m not actually convinced that everybody knew he could swing the bat. In the majors between 2012 – 2015, Leon managed a 32 wRC+, with one homer. Last year alone, in the majors, only Pete Kozma swung a less-productive bat. In the minors, Leon has posted a career .654 OPS. In the minors just this season, Leon posted a .655 OPS. There’s just hardly any track record.
We can’t even try to point to something mechanical that Leon has tweaked:
“Probably confidence,” said Farrell of the difference in Leon this season. “I can’t say that the swing has changed all that much. He’s not missed pitches when they’ve been on the plate.”
I’m writing this in the middle of a Red Sox/Yankees game Thursday evening, and apparently Leon is already 2-for-2 with a bloop double. Not counting the game in action, Leon has 128 plate appearances this year, exactly equal with his total from last year. Last year, he was bad. This year, he’s been amazing. Of course, there’s dramatic BABIP inflation, but the huge difference is power. Last year, Leon hit two doubles. This year, he has 10 doubles, two triples, and four homers. All in the same number of chances. I don’t have a prayer of understanding, but, here we are. Last summer I wrote about how a Ryan Goins hot streak confused the hell out of me. This might’ve been even more unexpected. Leon was mediocre in the minors earlier this very year.
I want to show you a table that really gets to the heart of this. I looked at everyone with at least 100 plate appearances, then I compared actual wOBA to preseason projected wOBA, according to ZiPS. The top 10 overachievers:
| Player | Projected wOBA | Actual wOBA | Difference |
| Sandy Leon | 0.256 | 0.426 | 0.170 |
| Tyler Naquin | 0.278 | 0.406 | 0.128 |
| Wilson Ramos | 0.290 | 0.396 | 0.106 |
| Matt Joyce | 0.299 | 0.403 | 0.104 |
| Chris Herrmann | 0.267 | 0.361 | 0.094 |
| Daniel Murphy | 0.321 | 0.411 | 0.090 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.335 | 0.419 | 0.084 |
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.292 | 0.375 | 0.083 |
| Jake Lamb | 0.307 | 0.388 | 0.081 |
| David Ross | 0.241 | 0.321 | 0.080 |
Leon has since increased his wOBA another 10 points. Very, very clearly, this is partially driven by the small sample size of his season, but if you look at the other end of this same list, the very top underachiever is Hanigan, off his projected wOBA by 95 points. There’s maybe some luck balancing out. Leon’s surge has come at a crucial juncture.
Even when he was bad, Leon could make contact. He’s a switch-hitter with a pretty compact swing. That contact ability hasn’t gone away, but there’s more here of actual intrigue. Statcast knows of 341 hitters with at least 50 recorded batted balls in each of the last two seasons. Leon’s average exit velocity shows the fifth-biggest improvement in the sample. His average launch angle shows the 11th-biggest increase in the sample. There’s almost enough there for you to buy that Leon has figured something out, but then you stumble over his numbers in Triple-A. I can’t provide for you the big answer. I can just say, hey, what a great time for Leon to look like he can actually do something. The Red Sox have needed it. Leon’s career probably needed it.
He’s also pretty good at defense, by the way. So pitchers and coaches trust him. It’s how Leon racked up big-league experience even when he wasn’t hitting. He’s an acceptable receiver, and he’s got a strong and accurate arm. He seems to be able to manage a staff. If it weren’t for the whole history, you’d look at Leon today and think, that guy, that guy right there, he’s a keeper. He’s only 27 years old.
And I have no idea how much he’s actually figured out. It stands to reason he’s figured out something, but he’s not as good a hitter as David Ortiz. As for how much worse he really is, I can’t yet say. What can’t be denied is that one of the least productive hitters in major-league baseball has become one of the most productive hitters in major-league baseball. The stats are all facts. Leon will slow down and he’ll resemble something easier for us to understand, but now he’s on the map, having saved the Red Sox catchers’ season. Sometimes things don’t at all go according to plan. Sometimes you can be happy throwing the plans away.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Sox fan here – we don’t understand it either. I am most thankful of Sandy in that I do not have to watch Hanigan bat or field. He really hasn’t done either in any manner acceptable from a MLB player. Currently Hanigan’s page shows a +3.0 DEF, but I swear that every time I watch him play that he has 3 passed balls and a throwing error to some base.
To follow up on my past ball claim: 18 past balls in 27 games started this year.
He catches Wright you idiot
How come nobody else who catches Wright has that many passed balls Ryan?
My grandpa always said, balls from the past are hard to catch.
He also catches Wrong, 18 times this year.
Yeah, he was catching Wright, but he went from good to bad at that. Concussion and ankle injuries.
Anecdotally, it looks like he is trying to swing the bat much harder, as in that his swings are more vicious. Last season, he flailed at most pitches, just trying to make contact. Now every swing he makes seems to be with the intention to hit it over the fence.
Sounds like Zach Cosart
Except that Zack Cozart was good last year, before the right knee injury.
Babip of 472 is all you need to know.
But as far as that top 10 Zip Beater list, 4 are Catchers. Hmmm.
What does his BABIP tell us about his .233 ISO?
He’s getting bloop doubles.
Why are you even on this site with your ignorance level?
Babip 472 is not all you have to know. He plain didn’t have the power to even get lucky before this.
Even if you regress his BABIP luck, what he’s done so far for the Sox is remarkable considering what he was doing in the minors.
In some ways, it kind of reminds of Ryan Vogelsong.
2007-09: Playing in Japan
2010: 95 innings in AAA with almost 6 BB/9 and 4+ FIP
2011: 180 innings of 2.71 ERA / 3.67 FIP for the Giants (he had two good starts in AAA that led to the calllup)
Like Leon, his surface results were somewhat luck driven but even looking at advanced metrics you would have a hard time believing it was the same person.
Sometimes the light just goes on for whatever reason (coaching? confidence?) and the underlying talent/potential comes up the surface.
I’m willing to bet money it’s all babip and he regresses to a sub 100wrc+ the rest of the way
The BABIP is obviously stupid. It’s the extra-base hits that have come from nowhere. I can’t imagine he’s an actual good hitter, but he’s demonstrating he’s not the zero that he used to be.
Maybe he had a problem like Daniel Murphy, he had contact skills but was almost too concerned about not striking out so he didn’t swing as hard as he should, maybe this year he’s just swinging harder.
I’ve seen every Leon ML at bat this year. It’s hard to imagine he’s not a good hitter if that was the only thing known about him. Strip out the unusual good luck he’s had and throw in an equal share of bad luck as well, he’s still a league average catcher, which is a shocking improvement. Also, hitting at the very end of the Red Sox order has been as good for him as it was for Bradley.
Leon appears to have a plan for each at bat and rarely looks foolish or over matched. I remember how bad this guy was.
Way to go out on a limb there!
Another great piece, Jeff! This is some really interesting stuff.
When I see stories like this, I take a look at the underlying xBABIP and xISO to get a sense of what the hitter’s batted-ball profile would support. (I assume the same ISO OBP and BIP/AB rates.)
Going into this season, Leon was a .187/.258/.225 career hitter (.257 BABIP). His batted-ball data supported a .182/.253/.286 line (.251 xBABIP). The increase in xISO is probably inflated by a high pull rate (.455) for someone with weak contact (.162 Hard rate).
His 2016 estimated batting line supports your article. Even if you regress his LD% to .200, assume those lost LD are GB, and reduce his Speed score to what it was entering the season, it still suggests a batting line of .258/.298/.463 (.306 xBABIP). Leaving his LD% and Speed as they are, his estimated line is .283/.323/.488 (.334 xBABIP). In other words, Sandy Leon is looking like a legitimate .750-.800 OPS hitter. With his defense, that’s very valuable.
Red Sox have been the kings of hot/babippy starts this year.
It’s pretty remarkable, really.
Most of the regulars (except Betts, Holt, Hanigan)
Xander – 1st 257pa: .400babip, 145wrc+ (since: 271pa, .308babip, 100wrc+)
Ortiz – 1st 216pa: .343babip, 200wrc+ (since: 223pa, .269babip, 121wrc+)
Bradley – 1st 180pa, .403babip, 172wrc+ (since: 270pa, .282babip, 105wrc+)
Hanley – 1st 162pa, .402babip, 123wrc+ (since: 275pa, .262babip, 96wrc+)
Shaw – 1st 160pa: .406babip, 157wrc+ (since: 250pa, .258babip, 65wrc+)
Young – 1st 108pa: .348babip, 154wrc+ (since: 34pa, .280babip, 20wrc+)
Pedroia – 1st 102pa: .382babip, 142wrc+ (since: 393pa, .306babip, 111wrc+)
Swihart – 1st 74pa: .348babip, 95wrc+ (since: —)
Which isn’t shocking to see a whole team off to a hot start and benefitting from each other beating up on pitchjng staffs…
…..but it’s also happened with most of the callups too (except for vazquez):
Leon – 1st 132pa: .472babip, 176wrc+ (since: —)
Hernandez – 1st 49pa: .353babip, 105wrc+ (since: —)
Rutledge – 1st 39pa: .565babip, 172wrc+ (since: 17pa, .000babip, -70wrc+)
Brentz – 1st 33pa: .500babip, 148wrc+ (since: 31pa, .238babip, 11wrc+)
Benintendi – 1st 24pa: 474babip, 131wrc+ (since: —)
“Since” what? Those divisions look arbitrary. In some cases you are citing 25 PA samples of BABIP data. In others, you are actually splitting 60 PA samples of BABIP data. Why? You may as well go game by game at that point
1ST 2 PA: .500 BABIP, FINAL 2 PA: .000 BABIP – WAKEUP PEOPLE THAT BABIP WAS NEVER SUSTAINABLE!!!
you’re right, there’s no objective way to discern “hot” streaks, and many of those samples are tiny. no getting around that.
I feel they support the notion of high babip starts all over the lineup but if you don’t that’s fine.
in terms of non-arbitrary large-sample info we could look at teamwide monthly splits and note that in apr-may the team had an insane .342babip which gave them elite offense, record, and rundiff, and that ever since they’ve posted a normal babip with decent offense and .500calibre record and rundiff…..but that wasn’t the point I was interested in here.
First off, .342 babip actually isn’t all that insane. They have had some really significant luck at various points in that regard (Leon is a great example), but for a team with line drive tendencies, playing in Fenway (which massively inflates LD babip, especially for righties) and with a high percentage of younger, faster players in the line-up, it’s not out of the realm of reasonability.
Second, baseruns strongly indicates that they’ve been sequenced to death over the past few months. Their run differential is a little better than 500, but their base runs is among the best in the majors and by far the best in their division. Even with the babip regression.
Third, your splits are incredibly cherry-picked.
.342 is completely insane and unsustainable.
Their current .323 is really an high itself, and likely unsustainable.
and baseruns ignores babip. so yes, they arguably should have scored more runs so far as baseruns says, but as the babip drops going forward so do the baseruns.
Remember Chris Colabello?
Last summer I wrote about how a Ryan Goins hot streak confused the hell out of me.
I remember that. It resulted in a lot of Jays fans trying to convince people that Goins had made some magical change and was now a respectable hitter.
That didnt work out so well.
yep. many of my fellow jays fans (and broadcasters) were convinced goins both made tulo expendable, and should start over travis this year.
it was frustrating, since goins has always been awful.
I can’t help but think the people saying his BABIP will regress are missing the total point of this article. No ones arguing that he’s gonna stay a .383 hitter. But this is a guy who has never hit on any level with any sort of reliability. Now he’s in the majors and is carrying a 1.040 OPS over almost 40 games! It’s absolutely incredible and he’s been a ton of fun to watch as a Red Sox fan and has come at a time when the offense was really beginning to stumble. Not to mention our pitching has been very good the last month (looking at you E-Rod.)
I hope Hurricane Sandy helps propel us in what is gonna be a tough pennant race.
for what it’s worth, he spent last offseason playing winter ball in venezuela, and it sounds like he put in a lot of work there, including tweaking his batting stance. just watching the games you can see he’s making solid contact and hitting the ball hard but it’s nice to have the statcast data to back that up. he probably saved somebody’s job by making the swihart move/injury look less bad
Sandy “Ballgame ”
Let’s enjoy it while it lasts
Video of him this year versus last (with Pawtucket) shows that he’s infinitely quieter at the plate, setting up. Could that be part of it? Note the four toe taps last year, now erased.
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?sid=l117&content_id=380701583
http://m.mlb.com/video/v865348883/bostb-leon-drives-a-tworun-homer-to-right/?c_id=mlb
Leon worked with Red Sox assistant hitting coach Victor Rodriguez during winter ball, and more during the spring. They changed his stance, and it may have just taken a while for the changes to really pay off.
There’s no way he’s magically turned into a great hitter at 27, but I don’t think he could hit this well unless he figured something out. I remember watching several at-bats of his last year, where he won battles against tough pitching for hits or walks, and thinking there was no way he should be a .180 hitter (not necessarily a good hitter, but not a terrible one either). The Sox’ hitting coaches are pretty smart, and maybe they figured out what was causing him to be such a poor hitter and fixed it. Who knows?
His defense is well enough regarded and the pitchers like him, but one thing he has never done well and still does poorly is frame. It’s not that he can’t pull a ball into the strike zone–although he can’t– but that he pushes strikes into the ball zone.
It is simply unfathomable what Leon has done. It is Donaldsonesque. For this reason, I can understand people being skeptical. It’s just so improbable. But it’s real folks. The guy has a 37% hard hit rate through 140 PAs. He has a 27% line drive rate! People who get 27% line drive rates usually don’t regress back to 19-20%. They stay around 23-27% He has an optimal gb/fb ratio. He has (and has always had) good contact skills. He has historically posted good walk rates. Yes, he has gotten lucky (15% ifh rate for a slow catcher), but strip away the luck and give him credit for the liner propensity and the hard hit rate and the guy goes from a .473 babip to a .350 babip at worst. Have people even seen his extra base hits? They’re clobbered! Nevermind that he’s a switch hitter who can avoid having lopsided splits! Add in the top shelf defense (which has never been questioned) and you’ve got yourself a top 3 catcher in the league. I know most people will call me crazy but I have absolute faith — even after his meh history and only 140 PAs this year — that he is a top 3 catcher. DOWN VOTE ME! WE SHALL SEEEEEEE!