The Mariners Have to Thread a Very Small Needle
Tuesday night, the Mariners started a game without Robinson Cano, Dee Gordon, and Nelson Cruz. I should say they also started without James Paxton, since it wasn’t his day to pitch. Eventually the Mariners ended the game without Mitch Haniger. Nevertheless, they beat the A’s in extra innings, improving to 28-19. It’s tied for the fourth-best start in franchise history, if you just focus on the first 47 games, and the Mariners own the fourth-best record in the American League. They own the sixth-best record overall. If the playoffs started today, people would be very confused, but also, the Mariners would be included, for the first time since 2001. For all intents and purposes, Ichiro Suzuki is retired. In 2001, he was a major-league rookie. This is, as you know, the longest active playoff drought out of the four major North American sports.
Cano suspension aside, the Mariners couldn’t have asked for a much better first two months. They’re on a 96.5-win pace, and it probably shouldn’t take 96 or 97 wins to make the playoffs, so there’s a little bit of built-in wiggle room. Without question, it’s good for the Mariners that they have sole possession of a wild-card slot. They’re 2.5 games ahead of the Angels. They’re 3.5 games ahead of the A’s, and they’re 5.5 games ahead of the Rays and the Blue Jays. The Twins trail six games behind. The early results are in the bag; since opening day, the Mariners have dramatically improved their position.
Yet the path to the playoffs remains narrow. With a dominant starter and a dominant closer, the Mariners would make for a challenging wild-card opponent. There’s just a lot of work to do first, before any of that even matters.
Whenever you’re talking about a team, it’s worth talking about what it’s been, and what it arguably deserves to be. This stuff is obligatory, so let’s go ahead and get it out of the way. At 28-19, as mentioned, the Mariners have the sixth-best record in baseball, and the fourth-best record in the AL. However, by run differential, they have the 15th-best Pythagorean record in baseball, and the sixth-best record in the AL. Furthermore, they have the 15th-best BaseRuns record in baseball, and the seventh-best record in the AL. To this point, the Mariners rank 11th overall in team WAR.
Just as important, if not more so, the Mariners rank 13th overall in projected rest-of-season team WAR. The rest of the way, they project for the 18th-best record in baseball, and the ninth-best record in the AL. The projections don’t think the Mariners can keep something close to this up. Part of that is because, over the remainder, the Mariners are projected to face baseball’s third-toughest schedule. It only gets tougher from here, and there’s a lot of Cano-less baseball to be played.
Obviously, it’s good to have a good record. Where we are right now, the Mariners are in striking distance of the Astros, and also the Yankees. Anything can happen — just look at what’s gone on with the Dodgers. But if we’re going to be realistic, the Astros are much better than the Mariners are, so the Mariners don’t have a real path to winning the division. And the Yankees and Red Sox are also much better than the Mariners are, so the Mariners don’t have a real path to winning the first wild card. If they want to make the playoffs, the true shot is at being the wild-card road team. That’s what’s true this season, and that’s probably what’s true next season as well. The race for the second wild card is typically tight.
Because the Mariners have a current advantage, they can afford to give a little bit of ground. They don’t have to be as good as the rest of the competition over the remainder — they can be some small number of games worse. You can see how the situation gets tricky, though. There are four or five other real contenders for the same spot. They all have the same idea. And the Mariners probably have the least ability to improve on the fly. Once the draft has come and gone, it’ll be trading season. The Mariners won’t be able to aim very high.
This is a club that already had a thin pitching staff behind Paxton and Edwin Diaz. That’s no less true today. But with Cano out, and with Gordon moving to cover second base, there’s a hole in the outfield. The Mariners have an objectively dreadful farm system. It is almost certainly the worst in the major leagues. They didn’t have a single preseason top-100 prospect. No team entered the year with a worse No. 1 prospect, and the Mariners are also short on prospect depth. It’s bad at the top, and it’s bad down below. Some number of prospects will surprise, some number will over-achieve, but the Mariners simply can’t offer up many resources. Not as many as some other organization. In an article the other day, Ryan Divish said the Mariners have had trouble even reaching an agreement to trade for Travis Jankowski. When you can’t trade for Travis Jankowski, what can you trade for?
If the Mariners have one thing going for them, it’s the silver lining of the Cano suspension. Even though they’d rather have Cano active, of course, his suspension gives the Mariners about $11 million of added flexibility. Therefore, they could conceivably take on a contract, which is one way to get better without giving much up. Generally, though, it’s not premium players who are getting dealt in salary dumps. At least as far as the outfield goes, the Mariners might well have to settle for targets like Leonys Martin or Jon Jay. I’m sure Jerry Dipoto would eventually like to add a pitcher, but it’s pitchers who tend to cost the most in June and July. There’s just not a whole lot the Mariners can seemingly do to meaningfully improve.
Maybe they’ll keep winning 60% of their games. Maybe Dipoto will pull something off that I can’t currently see. He might regard this as a puzzle to solve. Certainly, the Mariners have some kind of chance, and many other teams would envy their present record. And as long as I’m here, I might as well talk about something else. I think there’s a common belief that this could be the Mariners’ last go of it, that the organization is headed for a cliff. Because of the state of the farm system, the club clearly can’t lean on many cheap young reinforcements, but look at these WAR distributions, by years of team control remaining.
2018 WAR to date
- 0 years remaining: -0.6 combined WAR
- 1 year remaining: +0.5 combined WAR
- 2+ years remaining: +11.6 combined WAR
Projected rest-of-season 2018 WAR
- 0 years remaining: +1.6 combined WAR
- 1 year remaining: +2.9 combined WAR
- 2+ years remaining: +19.2 combined WAR
Most of the Mariners’ best players are around at least the next couple years. Cruz is the only pending free agent of real consequence. The next season, there’s Felix Hernandez, Juan Nicasio, and Nick Vincent. The Mariners have precious little organizational depth, and they’re going to need some young players to emerge, but there are more team-control years on the major-league roster than you’d think. And the whole landscape only improves if you believe in Guillermo Heredia’s discipline, Daniel Vogelbach’s power, and Marco Gonzales‘ strikeouts. Given what Vogelbach has done in Triple-A, maybe he’s the future Cruz replacement the Mariners have been looking for.
So, on the one hand, the circumstances here aren’t necessarily dire. At least, not as dire as they’ve been made out to be. The Mariners have bought themselves a little time for the farm system to get better. And yet, still, the Mariners are nowhere close to the Astros. Not now, and not next season. They’re nowhere close to the Red Sox and Yankees. They’re nowhere particularly close to elite, and the road to a one-game playoff is going to require that very little else go wrong. This is not a path that will be easy for Dipoto to navigate. So far, so good. But there are many, many more miles to go, and you might say the Mariners are short on supplies.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
I do like the race metaphor Jeff proposed in the final paragraph. The Mariners have a head start, but are slower(worse at baseball) and have less supplies(trade bait).
Of course, another Mariners puff piece by Jeff Sullivan.
Aaaand Dee Gordon broke his toe.
People don’t seem to realize it’s a running joke that Jeff ‘only’ writes about the Mariners, given his experience and self-authored description…
When you get downvoted for a “running joke,” maybe you should take that as a signal to find fresh material.
Deleted (Herm Edwards voice didn’t work – edit did!!)
They have to realize that they are playing with house money and do something to improve fast.
Seems like they don’t have any available ABs for Vogelbach, now or in the future, maybe they match up with a team like the Royals who don’t have a long term 1B/DH? Though I don’t know if Kennedy or Duffy are worth the trouble at this point…
Wait, when playing with house money, the move is to spend a bunch of your own money? I don’t get it.
poor health in June? boo!
Meh. I’ve been a Mariners fan since 1977. I sat in the near-empty Kingdome during back-to-back 100-loss seasons in the 80s; I was here for the insane 2001 season too. And most of the seasons in between, and since. I’ve seen really good M’s teams, and really (really!) bad ones. This isn’t one of the latter, but it doesn’t look like one of the former.
This bit, I think, is key:
So what’s likely to happen is that the M’s will fade over the stretch, and people will blame it on Cano’s absence or Dipoto’s failed trades or just the Mariners Marinersing, when the reality is that they looked better than their true selves thanks to a weak early schedule and more like what they really are the rest of the way. They’re not going to the playoffs this year, and probably not next, either. They’re one of the in-between teams that didn’t do the full crash and rebuild and don’t have the payroll headroom to do anything else. The postseason drought shall continue.
I just wish the Nationals would get their shit together and play in a World Series already. There’s no distinction to being one of two active teams never to have played in a World Series.
Yeah, I just don’t see how we can win the division without tearing down and starting over, too much of an in-between team with no farm or available payroll.
Maybe they’d like to take Rusney Castillo and his entire contract. Just money, and conceivably worth it.
As a Red Sox fan, I’d have to say this is probably going to be the worst idea on this thread.
By far.
Well, there’s little to no chance that Castillo is worth anything at all. But perhaps if Dipoto were willing to take on a bad contract he could pick up an actually useful piece for next to nothing. Anybody have any insight as to Seattle’s ability/desire to add payroll?
Dee Gordon broke his toe! So now they’re down at both 2B and CF.
I’m guessing that they were looking for a platoon partner for Heredia, but they might do better if they look for someone who isn’t pre-arb. Or who’s stuck in AAA (Jeremy Hazelbaker?). Or maybe Ian Miller or Kirk Nieuwenhuis would be a good platoon-mate?
If you’re not going to look for an expiring contract or a guy who is on the fringes of a 40-man somewhere, they probably are going to have to take on salary.
Broken toe? Pfftttt!!!
Uh, “for whom can you trade?”
M’s fan here, the they have absolutely over-performed, but not in such a way that I think its fair to expect them to collapse; the talent is very much legit.
The farm system is unfortunate, especially with some of the starting pitchers we traded over the past 3 years putting up numbers we could use. That said. as a Seattle fan I think this team needs a playoff run (and a victory would certainly be nice) from a buzz standpoint; there is a great deal of (warranted) skepticism around this team locally and it’s reflected in the ticket sales.
M’s fan here as well. Seems to me their overperformance has to do with their superior play late in ballgames, which seems pretty unsustainable to me. They won’t collapse per se but they should regress to the mediocre team they were thought to be a couple months ago.
Though an outfielder is the need right now, a utility player like Merrifield would seem like a better fit because of his positional flexibility and speed. Seattle doesn’t likely have the chips to land him alone (if he’s even available), but what if they were willing to take on Gordon’s contract, or Duffy’s? If Rzepczynski went along with a prospect or two (or three), the acquired salary this season would mostly be offset by the savings over Cano’s suspension.
That would arguably hurt Seattle next season, but Phelps and Rzepczynski will be off the books and Cruz may not stick around, either. Their bullpen holes/needs/whatever could feasibly be addressed internally.
Starting pitching would still be an issue, but without the chips to acquire significant names, Dipoto would likely be looking in the basement for replacements anyway.
Just a thought.
Dipoto has dealt, according to FG prospect rankings, a 55 FV (Gohara), a 50 FV (O’Neill), 4 (45 FV’s), and 7 (40 FV) prospects.
Now, the Mariners have just 3 (45 FV’s: Lewis, White, Carlson) and 11 (40 FV) prospects.
The fruits of giving up most off our quality prospects? We are just a fringe contender fighting for the second wild card.
I really don’t get the support for Dipoto at all, he really doesn’t seem to value prospects and I think that is a crucial way to build a sustainable winning ball-club.
His approach is certainly different from the farm system oriented teams that are currently blossoming (HOU, NYY), but the best laid plans go awry even with young players at the core (LAD). At the end of the day the farm system is ultimately just that, a farm for the 40 man and 25 man rosters, and the Dipoto’s approach seems to emphasize the significance of those 40 players, at least in the current incarnation.
I’m not suggesting its the right approach, I just think there is some merit and method to the madness.
Jerry also digs prospects that don’t fall under the conventional label: guys like Mitch Haniger who have a late breakout, get a late start to professional ball, are way too old for their respective level but still offer MLB level talent, former prospects coming off injury or a bad performance, that kind of thing.
That last point is critical. For example, in 2017 FG rated Haniger a 45 FV, and all he’s done over the last calendar year is put up 3 WAR even with significant time missed due to injury. These kind of underrated players are why the Mariners are significantly beating their WAR projections (setting aside sequencing luck).
The Island of Misfit Toys is a fitting descriptor of the Dipoto model. Nearly every major contributor on the current squad fits this under-appreciated archetype:
-James Paxton got a late start to pro ball (even though he’s a Jack Z sign)
– Marco Gonzales was acquired post TJ
– Mitch Haniger got a late start to pro ball and was hurt/under performed in AZ
– Dee Gordon was a Marlins castoff in the great Miami purge of 2017
– Ryon Healy broke out, then was hurt and had a bad year
– Dee Gordon is playing a new position (or was, w/e you get the idea)
– Ben Gamel is a well rounded C+ prospect who lacks tools and had no spot in New York
– Guierrmo Herredia was a zero hype Cuban prospect, especially relative to Rusney Castillo and Yasmany Thomas
– Jean Segura was worth 5 wins but lost 2 seasons to personal tragedy
I don’t think what he’s done would be his strategy if he had full say over what was done. Ownership wants a winner and has been resistant to a tear-down. He inherited the Felix, Seager, and Cano contracts, which he isn’t going to get much value out of trading away without eating a lot of them. It’s definitely frustrating to get rid of a bunch of lower level prospects that end up working out but he hasn’t made a huge boner of a trade other than the Chris Taylor trade and the David Phelps and Drew Smyly trades in hindsight after injuries.
He also inherited an absolute dumpster fire from the previous regime. He traded all those lottery tickets for MLB-ready or near-MLB-ready talent just to stay afloat. I haven’t agreed with all his moves and I consider him a second-division GM but I can appreciate the rationale for the overall strategy.
mrmariner, you need to list the returns. It’s not like every trade was a bust. Their entire starting outfield (with Gordon), shortstop, 1st baseman, 3/5th of their rotation, and several relievers all came via trade. You can argue many trades haven’t worked out well, but he’s fielded a decent team from those trades despite some misses.
True, they did get returns for their prospects. I’m not arguing that the trades were lopsided, I am just saying giving up that many prospects is pointless if you aren’t a legitimate contender. If we were a threat to win 90-95 games and gave up that much talent, that’s what you have to do. But we’re an 85 win team who may or may not snag a second WC. Gutting the farm and turning into a fringe contender is a problem regardless of whether the trades were fair or lopsided.
Tuning from a contender into a World Series contender is where gutting the farm is/can be necessary.
They’re currently on pace to win 108. I’ll take the under on that, but you chose an odd time to suggest they’re not a contender.
Worth noting, Dipoto could reverse course easily: sell high on Paxton and Diaz, possibly Colome and Nicasio at the deadline as well, move Seager with 20 million or so to net a prospect and trade Cruz for an A-ball lottery ticket to shed a little more salary.
The remaining schedule is brutal for sure. And the pitching depth looks bleak. And losing Cano hurts. And it will be hard to upgrade the roster. And it probably isn’t a good idea to try to upgrade except to fill in with moderate upgrades and depth from the Cano money (which would still help because there are some glaring holes here).
They definitely won’t keep winning like this playing the Astros 15 more times and the Yankees/Red Sox 12 times combined for the rest of the season.
However, I think a good case can be made they are a bit better than their current pythag would suggest due to some bad luck in run prevention early on (and Dee Gordon not having much of the slightest clue how to play CF this whole time).
And a good case can be made that the strides Mitch Haniger, Marco Gonzales, and perhaps Guillermo Heredia have made are sustainable. Which makes this team a lot better on paper than it looked before the season started. And the strides those three have made have been pretty big strides relative to their preseason projections. Haniger is probably worth 5-6 WAR this season instead of 2. Marco is probably good for 3.5-ish instead of 1. Heredia hasn’t reached the PA stabilization point for his BB% so who knows if he’s really going to walk 15% of the time but if he’s anywhere close to that he’s probably a 3-4 WAR player instead of 0.5. That’s a pretty big shift in combined WAR over the preseason projections……like 8 additional wins. Granted, those numbers will probably go down as the competition stiffens up, but it seems unlikely the gains are gonna disappear totally. They seem to have just plain gotten better as young players do sometimes.
Are Rest of Season WAR projections based on preseason projections weighted against this seasons performance? If so I’d wager the RoS for the Mariners is significantly underestimating the WAR Haniger, Gonzales, and Heredia will produce this year.
Plus Edwin Diaz is probably the best closer in baseball or close to it and Paxton looks amazing. Park adjusted the lineup is looking pretty good.
It’s not like, a good chance, but it’s a better chance than the M’s have had in a long time.
BRETT LAWRIE IV: BRETT LAWRIE RETURNS
Playing with $11 million of “house money” (assuming the ownership lets him) means that Jerry gets to do what he likes best — make four, five, or even more unusual moves. Which should be interesting, at the very least.
Any small move that makes an incremental difference in the second half is worth a shot, given that the Mariners have “out-performed” so far. Me (ignorant me), I would suggest watching the waiver lines like a hawk, because there are already possibilities out there (Johnson and Swihart on the Red Sox alone), and maybe it doesn’t matter how bad the trading chips in return are — a trade for depth is always more attractive than just cutting a player loose. Every other team is going to wait for the player to become “free,” so why not offer a sweetener to get to the top of the line?
I think what I’m saying is that there’s an awful lot of dice you can roll on $11 million. Not all of them will work out. Heck, if three of them work out at a WAR apiece, you win!
This year looks unexpectedly good, whereas next year looks predictably dismal. Leave the partial tear-down until next year. See what you can get (on the cheap) this year.
I know we already knew this, but spending a few minutes with that prospect ranking list is disheartening. The Braves’ 11th best prospect has a higher FV than the Mariners’ 1st. (Kolby Allard FV 50, ETA 2019. Kyle Lewis FV 45, ETA 2020.) Also, the Rays have TWENTY prospects with a FV of 45 or higher.
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