The Marlins Haven’t Traded Their Most Valuable Player

With Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna having been dealt, the Marlins might as well go all the way and sell everything they can.

Half-measures have no value at this point, in this process. This is an everything-must-go sale. The Marlins are bottoming out with or without Yelich, so they might as well cash in on his considerable value now for younger pieces that could conceivably be part of the next competitive Marlins team. And while the notion of a “competitive Marlins team” seems merely like a hypothetical at the moment, it could become a reality in the wake of a rebuild. That rebuild likely wouldn’t reach its apex until after 2022, though, the club’s last year of control over Yelich.

The Marlins have one of the weakest systems in baseball, and the returns from the Stanton and Ozuna deals are unlikely to elevate the team’s farm into the upper, or even middle, tier of the rankings.

While there are some reports suggesting that Miami intends to keep Yelich, that makes little sense at this point. The Marlins do seem open to fielding offers.

The club’s new ownership group has been criticized for dumping Stanton’s contract and trading Ozuna while failing to receive a single top-100 prospect in the process. Ozuna and Stanton combined for 96 home runs and 12 WAR last season.

Said agent Scott Boras to a horde of reporters on Wednesday at the Swan and Dolphin Hotel in Orlando:

“You would hope that [with] ownership — new ownership — that MLB would screen the ownership, so that we have an ownership that comes in and provide additions. … [Instead], they come in and they redirect, so you’re not a jewelry store that’s coveting your diamonds. You now become a pawn shop that is trying to pay the rent of the building.”

Some have suggested that what the Marlins are doing is not so much different than what the White Sox did a year ago, just that the optics are worse.

What is different, though, is the trade value of the players who’ve been moved. In the case of Chris Sale specifically, the White Sox possessed an elite pitcher with three years of team control at modest prices. Sale appeared 15th overall on Dave Cameron’s trade-value list in the middle of the 2016 season. By contrast, neither Ozuna or Stanton appeared on Cameron’s most recent list from this past July.

As for Yelich, he’s a different case.

Dave placed Yelich 27th in his trade-value series this past season after ranking him 23rd in 2016. Thanks to his skill, youth, and a club-friendly deal, Yelich is among the most valuable trade chips in the game. He’s a franchise-caliber cornerstone around which many teams would love to build. Yelich has produced 4.5 WAR in each of the last two seasons. He is projected for four wins in 2018.

Yelich is under club control for five more seasons at $58 million. FanGraphs projects him to produce about 21-22 wins during that period. Making some generic assumptions — that the present cost of a win is $9 million, that Yelich will age normally — he might be worth more than $200 million during that span. That’s a pocket full of Bitcoin.

Yelich is projected to produce basically $150 million in surplus value over the remainder of his contract. According to prospect values, that should return a haul. According to those valuations, Yelich is theoretically worth a hitting prospect with a future value of 70 ($107 million) and a pitching prospect with a future value of 60 ($34 million).

Yelich, in other words, is almost certainly talented enough to net a return headlined by a top-10 overall prospect.

For instance, Sale was projected to produce about 18 WAR over three seasons last winter and was owed $38 million. In that case, Sale netted four top-20 Red Sox prospects, including the game’s then-top prospect in Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech, another top-30 overall prospect. Eric Longenhagen placed a 70 FV on Moncada and a 55 on Kopech. That’s a total of $129 million in estimated value.

Not very different than what one could reasonably expect from Yelich.

The Marlins desperately need a haul, preferably one marked by youth and upside. And the Marlins should have a larger market for Yelich than with a shorter-term asset like Ozuna. A number of contending teams could have interest in Yelich along with teams like the Braves, Padres, Phillies, and White Sox that have young talent but are better positioned for 2019 and beyond.

There should be more bidders for Yelich. He should yield a premium return. Given his contract length and value, the Marlins can be more patient in finding a fit. And with this chip, their most valuable asset, Marlins cannot afford to miss.