The Next Generation of Second Basemen Is Arriving

Since 1999, five second basemen have produced 40 or more wins. Of that group, Chase Utley debuted first, in 2003. Robinson Cano arrived in 2005, and Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, and Ben Zobrist all made their first major-league appearances in 2006. Over the last dozen years, those five players have dominated the position, and while they might not have gotten a shirtless photo-op like the shortstops of a generation prior, they have defined excellence at second base.

Even looking at the production of that group over the last four years — roughly a decade after their debuts — Cano, Kinsler, Pedroia, and Zobrist make up half of the top eight by WAR. Jose Altuve and Brian Dozier, who appear among the leaders, have emerged over the last half-decade, while Daniel Murphy has been a late-bloomer. But a collection of older players who debuted in 2005 and 2006 — one that also includes Aaron Hill, Howie Kendrick, Brandon Phillips (Reds debut in 2006), Dan Uggla, Rickie Weeks Jr. — have been mainstays at the position over the last decade.

At the moment, however, it seems as though a changing of the guard is underway. Young talents like Ozzie Albies and Yoan Moncada — along with a strong group of prospects — appear ready to take over.

The 2016 season represented the best one ever seen for second basemen. Twelve players recorded four-win seasons, while batters at the position produced a collective 106 wRC+ for the season. While Jose Altuve topped that season’s production, Cano, Kinsler, and Pedroia made up three of the next five players. Due to the aging veterans near the top of the list, that level of production was going to be impossible to maintain. Unsurprisingly, the positional numbers dipped last season, with only Altuve, Dozier, and Murphy reaching the four-wins threshold, while Jose Ramirez’s great season came mostly while playing third. Second basemen put up a respectable 99 wRC+, but it was much closer to traditional expectations of the position.

This year, second-base production is up to a 103 wRC+. This early in the season, of course, we don’t know if that production will continue. What’s of considerably more interest, however, is the players occupying the top of the leaderboards at second base.

Jed Lowrie and Asdrubal Cabrera are off to incredibly good starts, but the next three players on this list are all 25 or younger. Like Lowrie and Cabrera, their hot starts are unsustainable. They’ve each built themselves a cushion, however, such that even modest production will result in strong end-of-season numbers.

According to the projections, which are conservative in nature, Albies and Moncada — the latter using an unusual approach at the plate — are headed for nearly four-WAR seasons, while Baez seems likely to reach three wins. The last time three second basemen aged 25 and under produced at least three wins was 2007 when Cano, Hill, Pedroia, Weeks Jr., and Kelly Johnson did it. Before 2007, you have to go all the way back to 1993, when Roberto Alomar and Delino DeShields led a young group that also included Chuck Knoblauch the previous season. No group is likely to measure up to the triumvirate of Paul Molitor, Willie Randolph, and Lou Whitaker from 1979 or the class of 1965 (featuring Gene Alley, Jim Lefebvre, Joe Morgan, and Pete Rose, but a collection of good, young second basemen is not a common occurrence, no matter how good the group turns out.

The projections for the rest of the season already have Albies and Moncada among the top five second basemen with Baez and 26-year-old Jonathan Schoop in the top 10. If we were dealing with just this group of players, this development likely wouldn’t merit much attention. Based on the prospect rankings, thought, it looks like there are a few more on the way. Here are the top-30 prospects coming into the season according to Eric Longhenhagen and Kiley McDaniel.

Four of the top 30 prospects in baseball are second basemen, while two other young players — Gleyber Torres for the Yankees and Nick Senzel in the minors for the Reds — are playing second base right now. Some services still list Bichette as a shortstop (his current position in the minors) and others are not as high on Kiura, but generally, those who rate prospects have those players fairly high on their lists. I asked Longenhagen and McDaniel if they could recall a group like this one, and the former mentioned the Cano/Kinsler/Pedroia group while noting that Weeks was considered the best prospect at the time. McDaniel observed that such classes are unlikely because second basemen often arrive at the position by accident.

That’s not untrue for the present crop, either. Ozzie Albies could be a shortstop. Javier Baez is in the same boat. Gleyber Torres can play short. Maybe Bo Bichette can, too. We often think of second basemen as players who couldn’t play shortstop, but right now we have a group who could play shortstop but moved off the position due to incumbent starters. Nick Senzel might end up at second even though he profiles better at third — a position which, due to the presence of Eugenio Suarez, he’s unlikely to play in Cincinnati.

Albies, Baez, Kingery, Moncada, and Torres are already in the majors. Bichette, Hiura, Senzel, and Urias seem pretty likely to debut this year or next. How many of those players need to stay at second base and pan out to for this to become the next great class of players at the position? If half of those players go on to have good careers, this group will head the class at second base for the next decade, with Jose Altuve playing the elder statesman role of Jeff Kent as the younger group takes over. Second base might not ever have another year offensively like they did in 2016, but the aging core is about to give way to a young, talented group that we haven’t seen emerge in more than a decade.