The Obscenely Late, Obscenely Early ZiPS Projected Standings
It seems like years ago at this point, but the last time we posted preliminary projections a month before the start of a baseball season, it went, well, you know, not great! Now comes our second attempt at preliminary standings projections, previewing what will likely be the oddest baseball season of our lives, at least until the robots take over and the league consists of 1200 Mike TroutBots.
The 60-game season is anything but familiar. MLB’s regional schedule has emerged victorious, with teams primarily playing their own divisions while also facing off against the corresponding geography-based division in the other league instead of their normal out-of-division games. Teams will play 10 games against each of their divisional rivals (40 total) and four games against each of the corresponding divisional teams (20 games total). The standings will work as they normally do, just with the odd twist of many of the teams that will compete in the Wild Card races not playing each other during the regular season. The designated hitter rule is universal for the rest of the 2020 season (and likely for the rest of baseball’s existence as a sport).
Not only will 60 games result in a more volatile season than 162 games would, there are factors that make it even more unpredictable than you’d expect. The injuries that every team suffers could really swing the numbers since the injuries themselves don’t “scale down” in a shorter season. Every injury that would normally place a player on the 60-day Injured List will essentially be a season-ending one, as will many less serious injuries, especially without the ability to play in rehab games in the minors.
And the injury effect that’s beyond the current reckoning of ZiPS is the unknown of COVID-19 itself. We simply don’t know how well the quarantines and safety protocols will hold up, how many players will test positive, or, most critically, how well players will recover. Even players who generally feel asymptomatic might experience subtle differences in the quality of their play. Since we just don’t know how COVID-19 will affect the performance of high-level athletes engaged in the rigors of a baseball season, even a 60-game one, I either have to tell you what I can’t do or just make it up, so I’ll go with the former.
One thing that seemingly will be familiar, at least, is the playoff structure. Without the agreement of the MLBPA to alter the format of the postseason and barring a new agreement before Opening Day 2.0, the usual playoff system will hold, with the six division winners advancing to the respective divisional series of their league and the four Wild Cards playing each other in winner-take-all games.
With the divisional alignments and the built-in inability of teams to play themselves, here’s the strength of schedule for each team’s opponents for the 2020 season:
| Team | SoS |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | .525 |
| Miami Marlins | .522 |
| Seattle Mariners | .517 |
| San Francisco Giants | .516 |
| Colorado Rockies | .513 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | .509 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | .508 |
| New York Mets | .508 |
| Detroit Tigers | .506 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | .504 |
| Texas Rangers | .503 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | .503 |
| Atlanta Braves | .501 |
| Washington Nationals | .500 |
| Kansas City Royals | .499 |
| Boston Red Sox | .499 |
| San Diego Padres | .498 |
| Los Angeles Angels | .496 |
| Cincinnati Reds | .493 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | .492 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | .491 |
| Oakland Athletics | .489 |
| Chicago Cubs | .489 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | .488 |
| Chicago White Sox | .487 |
| Houston Astros | .484 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | .484 |
| New York Yankees | .483 |
| Cleveland Indians | .481 |
| Minnesota Twins | .478 |
As expected, the Central divisions project to be the weakest overall, and without playing East/West teams, the expectation is that the actual win-loss totals (for eight of 10 teams) will come out above the projected strength of their rosters. This wouldn’t matter so much in a self-contained Central “league,” but does when Central contenders are competing for the same Wild Card spots as the East and West contenders that have tougher schedules. Of course, maximizing health and safety is more important than trying to squeeze out every last bit of competitive fairness.
Below are the projected standings by division:
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 37 | 23 | — | .617 | 46.5% | 20.0% | 66.5% | 8.8% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 35 | 25 | 2 | .583 | 34.1% | 22.3% | 56.4% | 6.6% |
| Boston Red Sox | 30 | 30 | 7 | .500 | 13.9% | 17.9% | 31.8% | 2.7% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 27 | 33 | 10 | .450 | 5.1% | 10.0% | 15.1% | 1.0% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 19 | 41 | 18 | .317 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 35 | 25 | — | .583 | 40.6% | 17.5% | 58.1% | 7.0% |
| Cleveland Indians | 34 | 26 | 1 | .567 | 31.9% | 18.3% | 50.2% | 5.5% |
| Chicago White Sox | 31 | 29 | 4 | .517 | 19.5% | 16.8% | 36.2% | 3.4% |
| Kansas City Royals | 26 | 34 | 9 | .433 | 5.8% | 8.3% | 14.2% | 0.9% |
| Detroit Tigers | 23 | 37 | 12 | .383 | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 0.3% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 36 | 24 | — | .600 | 44.0% | 16.8% | 60.9% | 7.6% |
| Oakland A’s | 33 | 27 | 3 | .550 | 30.0% | 18.7% | 48.8% | 5.2% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 30 | 30 | 6 | .500 | 16.6% | 15.8% | 32.4% | 2.9% |
| Texas Rangers | 27 | 33 | 9 | .450 | 8.0% | 10.7% | 18.7% | 1.3% |
| Seattle Mariners | 22 | 38 | 14 | .367 | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 0.2% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 34 | 26 | — | .567 | 31.3% | 17.6% | 48.8% | 4.9% |
| Washington Nationals | 34 | 26 | — | .567 | 32.4% | 17.5% | 49.9% | 5.0% |
| New York Mets | 31 | 29 | 3 | .517 | 17.3% | 15.4% | 32.7% | 2.7% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 30 | 30 | 4 | .500 | 15.6% | 14.8% | 30.4% | 2.4% |
| Miami Marlins | 24 | 36 | 10 | .400 | 3.4% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 0.5% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 32 | 28 | — | .533 | 27.6% | 14.5% | 42.1% | 3.9% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 31 | 29 | 1 | .517 | 23.4% | 13.7% | 37.1% | 3.3% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 31 | 29 | 1 | .517 | 21.9% | 13.7% | 35.6% | 3.1% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 31 | 29 | 1 | .517 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 33.7% | 2.9% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 26 | 34 | 6 | .433 | 6.7% | 7.1% | 13.8% | 0.9% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 38 | 22 | — | .633 | 57.7% | 15.2% | 73.0% | 9.7% |
| San Diego Padres | 32 | 28 | 6 | .533 | 21.4% | 20.6% | 42.0% | 3.7% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 30 | 30 | 8 | .500 | 13.4% | 17.1% | 30.5% | 2.3% |
| Colorado Rockies | 26 | 34 | 12 | .433 | 4.5% | 8.5% | 12.9% | 0.8% |
| San Francisco Giants | 25 | 35 | 13 | .417 | 3.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 0.5% |
Even without the expansion to a 16-team playoff format, 2020 will go down as the season in baseball history when the relative talent of the teams was the least important in determining the playoff field and the eventual champion. The devastating circumstances of this strange season likely lend some valuable perspective on how important any of this is on a relative basis, but this year has to be a bit of a bitter pill to swallow for fans of teams like the Dodgers and Reds that largely bucked the trend of doing “just enough” last winter.
To get an idea as to how things have changed since late February, here are the teams ranked by the change in the percentage points of playoff and championship probability since that ZiPS run. This includes all the changes of the last few months, including the new schedule, the universal designated hitter, anticipated returns from injury, and new maladies that will keep players out, like Chris Sale‘s and Noah Syndergaard’s Tommy John surgeries:
| Team | Playoff Change | Championship Change |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 18.3% | 2.2% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 17.6% | 1.8% |
| Texas Rangers | 16.6% | 1.2% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 14.5% | 1.0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 13.9% | 0.9% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 13.5% | 1.8% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 13.0% | 0.9% |
| Colorado Rockies | 12.1% | 0.8% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 11.7% | 2.3% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 10.0% | 1.6% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 9.4% | 1.5% |
| San Francisco Giants | 8.9% | 0.5% |
| Miami Marlins | 8.4% | 0.5% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 6.7% | 1.4% |
| Detroit Tigers | 5.7% | 0.3% |
| Seattle Mariners | 4.0% | 0.2% |
| Boston Red Sox | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Cleveland Indians | 0.3% | 1.4% |
| Oakland A’s | -0.1% | 1.5% |
| Chicago Cubs | -5.9% | 0.6% |
| San Diego Padres | -9.6% | 1.0% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | -15.1% | 1.0% |
| Washington Nationals | -16.1% | -0.1% |
| Minnesota Twins | -16.6% | -0.9% |
| New York Mets | -16.7% | -0.5% |
| Atlanta Braves | -23.7% | -1.3% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -25.8% | -8.2% |
| Houston Astros | -27.2% | -4.1% |
| New York Yankees | -31.2% | -9.5% |
The teams with the most positive change in their fortunes are the midwestern teams, and the teams that were on the very edge of Wild Card contention, such as the Rangers and the Blue Jays. The league’s basement dwellers’ playoff chances improve as well, but clubs like the Orioles and the Tigers just aren’t good enough to take as much advantage of it, in the sense of a binary playoff/non-playoff result, as these other teams. On the flip side, the elite teams and the coastal teams suffer the most. Every team that has seen their shot at the World Series trophy fade is a 2019 playoff team…or has Noah Syndergaard.
If baseball can get through 2020 with the players and team and ballpark personnel remaining healthy, it’ll be a victory no matter what the results are on the field. Flags fly forever, but freak flags only fly for 2020, so strap in and embrace the weirdness.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
NLC so tight
Every child slightly over average. And every game so important.
And then there’s the Pirates. At least they’re projected to be the best “Worst team in the Division”
The Pirates could surprise! Note that these projections show their chances of winning a playoff spot have increased more than any other NL team except AZ. And a projected 6 game gap between PIT and the division leader doesn’t seem like much. I also hope for a modest increase in pitching outcomes for this team with new coaching . And then there is randomness!
As is the second nl wild card as zips has the Padres winning the second wild card by one game just ahead of three teams tied with 31 wins.
Lol at downvoting this
Maybe they’re pedants who noticed there are actually 4 teams at 31-29 (MKE, STL, CIN, NYM)?
As a cards fan 😬
have you been making that face since 2019 NLCS Game 1?
I think there might be a mistake on championship change % for Toronto in the last table – only a 0.1% increase seems low
I still dont understand baseballs obsessive want for interdivisional games. With the legitimacy of a season with such a small sample size already a thing, shouldnt they want as many intradivisional games as possible to create a legitimate sample size for the one thing that determines the playoffs?
The idea is to keep all the games in as “small” a geographic area as possible in an effort to help slow down or prevent Covid transmission and propagation.
but couldnt that still be obtained by only playing intradivisional games?
But with 5 teams in a division, you’d always have one team not playing while the other 4 teams play each other – and (since I assume they are still playing 3 or 4 game series) that means one team not playing for 3, 4 or 5 days at a time.
fair enough
On a reddit thread (which I can’t find, might have been deleted) I put together a five divisions of six teams each where the teams were chosen regionally to minimize travel (some teams like Seattle get screwed as they are far from a cluster, but no different than usual I guess), while also trying to get as many rivals in the same divisions.
And then afterward, I balanced the divisions by making two swaps where I was trying to make them each of roughly equal quality (based on 2019 combined win%, flawed sure).
That would leave 12 games vs each of your five division mates and if travel is really an issue, feel free to use 6-game series.
The problem is the divisions all have 5 teams (an odd number), and the leagues each have 15 teams (also an odd number). So the schedule requires both interdivisional and interleague games be played – with the added benefit of keeping the teams relatively geographically contained, the East-East, Central-Central, West-West interleague format is actually a rather elegant solution!
Isn’t most of that because they want to use as many of the days when it is most convenient for people to get out to the park? If so, then is it still relevant to a season where there will be no fans in the park?
It’s relevant as long as they’re still mostly playing 3 & 4 game series, which they still will, because they don’t want to increase the amount of traveling between cities.
True, but this “year” is better by a lot…67% of games in division compared to 44% in a normal year (IIRC that normally it’s 18 games in division each year for 72 out of 162). I mean, how many times do we want to see Baltimore vs New York? Gleyber Torres would hit 100 homers!
So the Red Sox lost Chris Sale and increased their chances of making the playoffs by 2.5%? That doesn’t seem right.
When you reduce the number of events (games) the likelihood that the worse of two teams will win more becomes greater, so the shortened season gives the Sox a better chance of coming out on top compared to better teams. It’s like how you could flip a coin 5 times and come up all heads, but if you did it 1000 times it’d be close to 50/50. That overwhelms the loss of Sale.
…and their ownership still didn’t want to play!
And with more teams making the play-offs the Bosox have a better chance of getting in, and once you’re in…
Is this a thing? I haven’t seen any confirmation on more playoff teams
The playoff format is the same as usual (as of now, though it is possible that it changes before the season actually starts).
I read somewhere the playoff format isn’t going to change here’s a link to the article. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-obscenely-late-obscenely-early-zips-projected-standings/
Over .500 gets you in! What are the tie breakers for the .500 teams? And I bet at least one sub-.500 team gets in, in actuality. And somebody’s gonna win 45 games.
Not when you are only playing your division, That will make each division have some over .500
This isn’t necessarily true, since there are interleague games. Theoretically, the NL East could go 100-0 against the AL East, while each AL East team goes 20-20 within the division, thus giving every AL East team a 20-40 record, one of which will be in the playoffs. Obviously this won’t happen, but now I kind of hope it does.
Still to be seen is the impact of Covid-infected players on team performance.
Charlie Blackmun has tested positive.
More will follow.
Team depth will be more important than ever. Even a pulled hammy could end the “season” for a player.
It won’t take many losses (COVID or otherwise.) to throw projections out the window….
…or the entire season.
On the flip side, if a “shallow” team has remarkable injury (and health) luck for just a couple months, it could make their lack of team depth irrelevant! Everything about this season is going to be so weird.
Makes sense that the White Sox jumped the most. Playing the Royals and Tigers a bunch plus getting Kopech, Rodon, etc. back really helps. Their biggest weakness was going to be finding league average arms to get them through 162 games worth of innings which is no longer an issue.
There are no words to describe how much I hate all of this.
A season played in the middle of a pandemic at risk for everyone while being played for no meaningful stakes because no one will take the champion seriously anyway. What a cluster.
I kinda feel the same way, not sure why so many thumbs down. I want baseball and I hope in early August that positive tests don’t explode and it’s all scrapped. The protection rules they put in place are a joke. No spitting? How do you enforce that? What happens if a CF spits, does he get ejected? Fined? No sunflower seeds? Wet towel for pitchers so they don’t lick their fingers? What the hell.
Everyone takes the ’42-’45 Championships seriously despite having the rosters gutted by WWII.
Kind of wild but makes sense given the sample. 20 teams had a 2+% WS chance. Last year 13 did by zips preseason predictions
I don’t care that Dodgers playoff chances went down, I’m just glad we actually get to see Betts in a Dodgers uniform, if only for 60 games! I was thinking the season was doomed a few days ago.
And maybe having Betts play 60 games with the team will increase the Dodgers’ chances of signing him next year. He may like playing in LA or may like his teammates, etc.
Or the Dodgers decide they like him even more so as to be willing to pay his price tag. It also doesn’t hurt that they potentially get more “bargaining” time/ time to cozy up with him and his agent (even though Betts has taken a hard “no discussions until FA” stance).
It could still be doomed. I’m on the side that we just need to get back to things as normal but if positive test explode in early August it will be shut down.
Does anyone know if there was ever talk about going back to a 10-day IL just for this season? Normally, keeping a player out for a couple extra games to fill out a 15-day stint wouldn’t matter but it seems teams and players would want to be on the field as much as possible in a reduced season. Or does the taxi squad eliminate the need?
There will be a 10-day IL (plus an unrestricted COVID IL).
I think the plan, pre-COVID, was for a 10-day position player IL and 15-day pitcher IL (to prevent teams from blatantly abusing the IL system to get their pitchers extra rest without really losing anything). Not sure how or if that will change now.
It will probably go back to the 10 & 15 plan next season.
I know it helps their opponents’ perceived strength that they get to play the Orioles and Marlins a bunch, but still… Poor Orioles and Marlins, topping the SOS leaderboard.
The Marlins there remind me of the Simpsons Japan episode I think it is that one) where the find Woody Allen recording an advert for whiskey. “What did I ever do to deserve this?” Allen says, before going “Oh, yeah, I remember”
Strength of schedule is always something of a self fulfilling prophecy, especially at the extremes. The Dodgers don’t have to face the Dodgers and the Orioles don’t get to face the Orioles.
A highly projectable feedback loop, indeed!
Is there an chance you will provide 60 game 2020 season player projections, reflecting the unique schedules and roster sizes?
ZiPS/Steamer project talent, not really playing time. The FG staff might try to adjust the playing time on the Depth Charts once things become more cemented. But for ZiPS/Steamer, the mean projections won’t change. Just expect less accuracy and more fringe players to get increased playing time. Strength of Schedule doesn’t matter a ton for player projections, and is really tough to hammer out because the differences are so small and difficult to project.
Will fringe players get more playing time?
I assumed the opposite would happen with a shortened season being less of a physical strain on the top players.
At least position players in the NL will, since those teams now have an extra lineup spot.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance. I hear ya!
Don’t the 1942 and 1944 Cardinals, 1943 Yankees, and 1945 Tigers also count as freak flags? Maybe throw in the 1919 Reds and 1981 Dodgers, as well?
Why are ZiPS player projections not available? Aren’t those prerequisites for calculating ZiPS team projections?