The Orioles Are Paying Money to Andrew Cashner
So much talk of tanking. So much talk about teams allegedly not trying to win. I don’t really buy into the narrative so much — I think front offices, at least, are more urgently competitive than ever. But I will say there are a few teams in position to think about blowing it up. The Marlins? The Marlins have mostly already blown it up. Their rebuild is underway. I don’t really know exactly where the Tigers are. I know they’re not good. And then there are the Orioles. If there’s a trend, the Orioles have defied it. There’s a strong case to be made that the Orioles should have started selling already. But, dang it, they’re sticking together. And now they’re even adding Andrew Cashner.
The terms: two years, and $16 million guaranteed. There’s a third-year option, and incentives, and some of the money is deferred. We know that, if Cashner passes his Orioles physical, he’s going to start, because before now, the Orioles’ rotation depth chart read as such:
You can plug Cashner in, then. Holes still remain. The Orioles don’t look that good, in particular in a division that already has the Red Sox and Yankees. But if you’re not going to sell, you might as well do something else. Call it optimism or call it stubbornness, but the Orioles are going to give this a try.
The Orioles do not project to be strong. There’s little they can do between now and opening day to change that. The two best teams in the division look incredibly formidable. The Rays still look okay, and so do the Blue Jays, who, as I write this, have added Jaime Garcia. The Orioles might be fifth out of five. They probably are fifth out of five. But you can understand them, in a way, given some of the recent history. The 2012 Orioles were recent history’s greatest overachiever, winning 93 games after being projected to win only 70. The 2014 Orioles beat their projection by 15 wins. The 2016 Orioles beat their projection by 12 wins. You can get why they’d want to give it a go, especially as long as Manny Machado is still around. If longer-term ugliness is almost unavoidable, why start the losing early?
The other perspective: You should start the losing early, if it helps to bring in talent. The Orioles could’ve gotten younger by now. Maybe that’ll become their midseason direction. Cashner, too, could become a part of that, a part of a sell-off. But I shouldn’t keep talking about where the Orioles are. I should talk about their new starter.
Cashner is 31, and very tall, and he still throws his fastball in the mid-90s when he wants to. The power in his arm has hardly waned, and, of the 125 starting pitchers last season who threw at least 100 innings, Cashner ranked 21st in ERA-. That’s in between Carlos Carrasco and Justin Verlander. A lot of us still can’t help but look at ERA first, and Cashner’s was dazzling.
Now for the analytical part that could’ve been written in 2008. I feel like, as a group, we’re long past just believing in ERA. But still — but still — a low ERA can mislead. Andrew Cashner’s ERA was not at all supported by his peripherals. This is like sabermetrics 101, but, anyway, here are all the starting pitchers from the past two seasons who, in each year, threw at least 100 innings. You see 2016 and 2017 strikeout rates, and Cashner is in yellow.
Cashner’s strikeout rate dropped by the most. The most! He made 28 starts, and was for the most part healthy, but his strikeouts just plain cratered. His walk rate barely budged. Where Cashner finished with an ERA- of 74, he also finished with an FIP- of 103, and an xFIP- of 121. The season before, and the season before that, Cashner’s ERA was worse than his peripherals.
You can try to analyze this as much as you want. You can try to give Cashner as much credit as you want. He pitched a lot better with runners on base. Maybe he was pitching to weak contact. Maybe he knew exactly when to try to get a grounder. But Cashner wound up with the third-highest contact rate. He was hittable, without pounding the zone. And, let’s focus on that 47-point gap between Cashner’s ERA- and his xFIP-. That’s one of the very largest single-season gaps on record. How has that held up over time? Here’s another scatter plot, with data going back 16 seasons.
You observe a very weak relationship. There are 33 starters who, in Year X, had an ERA- at least 30 points lower than their xFIP-. Their average ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- marks: 71/97/107. The following season, for the same pitchers, those average marks were 103/106/107. Almost full regression, in the direction of the xFIP-. More batted balls started to find the ground. More batted balls started to clear the fence. This is so fundamental it’s almost boring, and it’s so old-school saber that we all want to try to think our way out of it, but the fundamentals are the fundamentals for a reason. I don’t think Statcast can save Andrew Cashner’s 2017 ERA. I don’t know if he got lucky, per se, but he almost certainly can’t do that again. Hitters are too good, and you want for a pitcher to generate more strikeouts, or yield fewer walks. Cashner successfully walked the tightrope once. Could he walk it all the way back?
It’s important to point out, now, that it’s not like Cashner is being compensated as if that low 2017 ERA were legitimate. He lasted this long for a reason, and the Rangers didn’t even extend a qualifying offer. The market knows that ERA was a mirage. The reason this matters is because it makes a difference as to how good the Orioles look as a consequence. Cashner will bring some kind of stability. The Orioles wouldn’t want to fill three rotation spots from their pool of internal options. Cashner will go once every five games. But he doesn’t actually profile to be that good. Steamer projects an ERA over 5. If I were going to be optimistic, I wouldn’t point to the low 2017 ERA at all. I’d point to the fact that Cashner still has most of his old velocity, the velocity he had when he got more strikeouts. I think, because of his stuff, Cashner could bounce back some, and hold up his end of the bargain. Cashner might perform like a real No. 3. More realistically, it’s within his reach to look like a No. 4. For Baltimore, it’s something.
And if Cashner looks good enough, maybe, by the end of July, he’s doing his job elsewhere. That’s all up to how the Orioles perform. They seemingly aren’t going to sell until they absolutely have to. This could be the season they have to. Or this could be one more season of Orioles magic. With this roster, in this divisional context, such overachieving might be the most magical yet.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
One might call it “stickiness”.
The Orioles recognize that counting on a methodical buildup to a team that will be heavily favored over both NYY and BOS (and two other teams) for a specific future multi-year window borders on delusion.
They don’t have to be favorites- but rather can succeed by methodically building up a good team.
This was just their backup plan after missing out on Yu Darvish
That the orioles have managed to assemble the exact same starting rotation for eighteen years is probably the most impressive thing I’ve ever seen in baseball.
The unsustainably solid 2014 staff notwithstanding, how do you explain such a long streak of nearly unparalleled and uncompromising incompetence?
The curse of the Moose?
Very simple: does the name Peter Angelos ring a bell?
This was probably one of the most predictable free agent signings. Anibal Sanchez might make some sense for the O’s. He shouldn’t cost much and is still capable of missing bats, though he coughed up a lot of dingers last season. I like him better on a minor league deal for Seattle, but Baltimore’s situation is more desperate.
His fastball velocity was actually the lowest of his career – 94.2 compared to 2016’s 94.9, 2015’s 96.2, and his career average of 96.0
He also had a career high contact rate at 86.4%, compared to 2016’s 82.8% and his career average of 82.1%
He also had a career low swinging strike rate at 6.1% (which was also the worst mark of any qualified SP in MLB), compared to 2016’s 7.3% and his career average of 8.0%
It’s a minor miracle that his ERA was so low.
Love the headline!
If Fangraphs keeps writing articles criticizing teams for fairly paying good players, I sincerely hope the MLBPA boycotts Fangraphs.
That’s just the way I feel, sorry.
Good thing this article isn’t about paying a good player.
That didn’t happen here
I have a feeling there is a missing /s at the end.
Accuracy of the comment aside, I’m having a good time imagining what a MLBPA boycott of fangraphs would look like.
If that’s the way you feel why are you sorry about it?
This article is about WHY Cashner is almost certainly not a good player by using advanced data as indicators of what will happen next. How about you show us something in the way of evidence to back up your opinion? If you don’t believe in that data, what are you doing here?
O’s fan here. I really don’t get it. Sometimes they seem to do it so well. Duquette does such a good job with the rule 5 draft. They traded a backup C for Mark Trumbo the year before he led the majors in HR. Duquette talked about how they looked at his flyballs in SEA would be out at Camden. Picked up Chen, Brach, etc off the scrap heap. Other times they do the stupidest things. Davis contract…Wade Miley…Yovani Gallardo…now, Andrew Cashner. It’s stupid. I’d rather have the internal candidates.
Also from a fan perspective, I had the same initial reaction. But after reading Jeff’s article, and weighing it up against the size of the contract (they’re basically paying him for +1 Win per year), I have to say it’ll probably be worth it. As mentioned, if he can eat enough innings to be their #4 starter, that’s fine. That would keep them in more games than most of last year’s pathetic starts.
So, now we can admit, that although there ARE internal candidates, they just aren’t very good ones. I certainly wouldn’t want to pencil them in for 700 innings or so! But now we can see who rises and wins jobs in Spring. And I wouldn’t rule out another similar signing (or the obligatory minor-league deals for even more washed-up goods)
Yeah FWIW xStats had him giving up xOBA of .331 last year which is 3% worse than league avg (.321), which would be more like a 4.65 ERA. O’s will take that for $8 mil a year if he can manage that.
Looking at pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, he was above avg (65th percentile) at drawing weakly hit balls (23.6% vs 22.7% avg) and gave up the 6th lowest percentage of Value Hits (which are kinda like Brls, xOBA >.880). Of course he’s playing with hot fire if he’s going to run just a 12% K-rate and allow almost 87% contact, which means relying heavily on his defense.
I mean, someone has to throw pitches so they need to sign guys just because, forget about competing….
maybe I can apply online for a tryout?
Keep in mind this is also a pinch-running upgrade.
The Orioles Are Paying Money to Andrew Cashner? Isn’t that crazy!
Personally, I’d rather have Jaime Garcia (going to the Blue Jays for similar AAV today) since he’s more likely to be functional, but you get way more upside with Cashner.
This is where Duquette shines…picking up veterans off the scrap heap. I wonder if their player development/coaching system is just a lot better at getting veterans to be okay than to develop young guys.
The O’s get way to much credit for scrap heap pickups, when all you do is shop from the bargain bin your bound to find a couple diamonds.
Which means it’s a fairly decent way of doing business. The practically announced plan is “bring in a bunch of cheap guys. The ones that suck we let go. But sometimes we’ll get lucky.” Is paying for Price or Cueto better?
The plan is to find diamonds in the scrap heap. They do so, with non zero success, as you yourself have admitted.
$8/yr for Andrew Cashner is NOT the scrap heap. Not when a VASTLY more likely to succeed (looking at not all that complicated metrics like FIP) guys like Garcia, Fister, etc were out there.
Garcia maybe, but Fister just sucks at this point doesn’t he?
Before you comment maybe you should look at what I was responding to
This ridiculous comment is EXACTLY the complaint I’ve had in the comment section for a while now. I said nothing of Andrew Cashner and his ability, I said nothing about Garcia, Fister or the cost to sign them, or anyone else. I said I think the O’s get more credit then they deserve for finding players off the scrap heap because that’s where they always shop.
It’s this kind of crap that makes it not even worth the comment section anymore, I don’t need you making up arguments and then defending your position, so in the future just don’t.
I think “diamonds” is being very generous, even if you count the Trumbos, etc.
Touche
With Cashner and Wade Miley signing deals this week, that leaves the following bounceback candidates for the Orioles or any other team with a broken-down rotation:
Scott Feldman
Matt Garza
Jeremy Hellickson
John Lackey
Chris Tillman
And RA Dickey, who I would really like to see again but I’m afraid may be done. Intentionally omitted are Clay Buchholz and Ubaldo Jimenez and Rickey Nolasco, who don’t seem like they’d bounce very well. Also omitted is Jason Vargas, who seemed cromulent last year but is all out of bounciness.
I think I’d take a chance on Garza or Tillman first.
Took the words right out of my mouth.
Lance Lynnn still out there
Lynn doesn’t qualify for ‘Bounceback’ status. Nor will be priced low enough for teams with ‘broken-down rotations’.
I actually expected the O’s to look at Vargas. Is there really no chance of bounciness there? But they all like Tilly so much that I expect him to at least get a ST invite if he hasn’t signed with anyone
Actually, I’d say Lynn is a “bounceback” candidate, even if he is not priced low enough for teams to pick up off the scrap heap.
Thing about Jason Vargas–he’s 35, and the last time he was anything more than a 4th starter was 2010, which was pre-Tommy John. But he’s okay now anyway so he’s worth a look.
I like how 6 of the 12 pitchers you named have been on the Orioles at some point.
As an Orioles fan I feel compelled to point out that the Orioles paying cashner a reasonable amount doesn’t really mean that they value him properly. It just means that other teams do, and the Orioles didn’t pay thaaat much more than any other team would offer.
On a lighter note, my phone tried to correct “cashner” to “cash beer.”
The Orioles are going to WISH that they had cash and beer instead . . .
He can’t be any worse than Hellickson was
So…it’s obvious, eastman’s phone should be Baltimore’s GM.
Seems to me that $8m/year is pretty much the going rate for a veteran pitcher to make sure you don’t overexpose the young guys and ruin their development.
One way or another the Orioles have to pitch 1500+ innings this year. This is a good way of lowering their risk of having that go very far off the rails while still providing a tiny bit of upside risk in case all their longshots come in. I like it reasonably well.
This (is a neat summary of my first argument above).
Steamer projects Cashner for 0.6 WAR. Steamer projects Todd Frazier for 2.1 WAR. Cashner got 2 yrs $16M, Frazier got 2 years $17M. I guess it’s fair to say that starting pitching is in MUCH higher demand than 3B.
Cashner seems like a better fit for the pen. His offspeed pitch values suck and his L/R split for 2017 backs this up. He did have a 4.06 FIP and a 58.7 GB% vs R.
I’m just impressed that Jeff had the courage to write this article before Cashner’s physical with the Orioles was complete.
Other writers are always in awe of my bravery
1yr/12m would have been better. Unless the O’s plan on competing in 2019, not sure that Cashner holds any value for them past this year.
They still have to fill out 5 rotation regardless of plans to compete and Cashner is just as good as any 5th starter.
He is? His peripherals suggest he’s one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Why should he be expected to beat those in Baltimore?
Fair enough but currently the O’s rotation consists of mothballs beyond the first 2 so there is that… but in all honesty, in my head he’s probably still living off “future abilities” ya know.
“The bigger the lie, the more they believe” Sheeet.