The Pirates’ Approach to Getting Paul Skenes to the Playoffs? Sign Adam Frazier and Tim Mayza
Here’s a sentence that you probably didn’t expect to see a few years ago: The Pittsburgh Pirates were one of the most exciting teams of 2024. They had the Rookie of the Year and an instant contender for best pitcher in baseball in Paul Skenes. Jared Jones was electric. They’re chock full of young hitting prospects. And let’s reiterate: Paul Skenes!
As you might expect, the Pirates hit this offseason with some momentum. It’s hard to find superstars, but Skenes is one of the best five pitchers on the planet, and honestly, I think he might be the best, period. This is the type of winter that lends itself to going for it. The hype will likely never be greater. Add a star or two around Skenes, fill out the bottom of the lineup, and this team could win a weak NL Central. Come playoff time, no one in the world would want to face the Pirates. So it’s with some remorse that I announce their latest signings. On Monday, lefty reliever Tim Mayza agreed to a one-year, $1.15 million contract; on Tuesday, utilityman Adam Frazier followed suit with a one-year, $1.525 million pact.
Frazier was a fun story the last time he was on the Pirates. In the depths of their despair, he was a rare burst of energy, Luis Arraez before Arraez hit the big time. He rarely struck out, rarely hit homers, and caused chaos by putting the ball in play even without blazing speed. Heck, he even drew a nice trade return when the Pirates sent him to the Padres ahead of the 2021 deadline, headlined by Jack Suwinski and Tucupita Marcano, both of whom have made contributions to the big league club.
If the Pirates had an Adam Frazier day, I’d be into it. He and once-and-current teammate Bryan Reynolds were two of the only fun players on those bleak Pirates teams; they even started the 2021 All-Star Game together. (Shout out to Josh Bell and Starling Marte, you guys were fun too.) Maybe he could slap the ceremonial first pitch the other way and then take off running to the roar of the crowd. A guy with Frazier’s physical tools carving out an eight-year major league career and earning $25 million? It absolutely deserves recognition.
He’s not at his peak anymore, to be clear. The years since Frazier left Pittsburgh haven’t gone as well as his time in the City of Bridges. He disappointed in that San Diego cameo. Then the Padres flipped him to the Mariners in an offseason trade, and he racked up an 82 wRC+ with them in 2022. The Orioles were the next to come calling, but he struggled in Baltimore and lost his starter’s job by the end of 2023. In 2024, he decamped to Kansas City and slumped to a 63 wRC+; he started the year as the leadoff hitter and ended the year as a backup.
Maybe that last part sounds a bit harsh, but it shouldn’t diminish what has otherwise been an impressive career, one that is a monumental credit to his skillset and work ethic. The man is 33 now, squarely into the downside of his career. It shouldn’t be surprising that he’s transitioned from solid starter to a bench role. When he retires, he’ll be a has-been, but it would have been extremely easy for him to be a never-was. His five-year run with the Pirates was great, and his ability to play multiple positions got him to the playoffs on three separate teams in the three full seasons since he left. Hats off to him.
He’s valuable even today thanks to his spectacular versatility. Lefty-hitting platoon second basemen don’t grow on trees. Platoon second basemen who can handle the outfield corners are even rarer. The reason playoff hopefuls keep acquiring Frazier is that he offers them options. Not sure whether right field or second base will be the spot where you’ll need to run a platoon? Sign Adam Frazier, and you’ll have either covered. The Royals example is perfect; he started the year as the big half of a second base platoon and ended it alternating with Hunter Renfroe in right. Even then, he also mixed in time at third, left, and first.
From that perspective, he’s a completely reasonable addition to a 2025 roster. If his 2024 season was a good reflection of his current true talent, he’s probably not long for the majors. But he doesn’t need to bounce back by much to contribute. Incumbent second baseman Nick Gonzales has struggled against righties so far in his young career. Would it shock you if Frazier takes over there for at least a stretch of the season? The price is right too; even if Frazier only turns into a meaningful contributor a quarter of the time, Pittsburgh would happily make that wager.
The same could be said about Mayza. Well, not the fun-Pirate-on-a-bad-Pirates-team part, obviously, but Mayza’s deal is also a solid one in a vacuum. Is he an elite reliever? No. Is he a good enough reliever to figure in a playoff bullpen? The signs sure point to yes; he’s pitched in each of the last three postseasons.
Mayza’s particular skill is shutting down lefties. In his career, he’s allowed a .252 wOBA when facing same-handed batters, an absurd mark. That ranks eighth among pitchers who have faced 500 lefties over the span of his career. Now, can he handle righties? He cannot. But for $1.15 million, and at age 33? I’d be very happy to give Mayza a one-year shot. The Pirates bullpen is light on lefties – fellow new signee Caleb Ferguson is the best of them, and he’s not exactly a mainstay – and seeing Mayza as the top option for that role by year’s end would be entirely unsurprising.
Even better, this roster affords Pittsburgh some flexibility in the bullpen. Carmen Mlodzinski, Kyle Nicolas, and Colin Holderman all have options remaining, though Holderman’s options are unlikely to be exercised given his setup role. The last spot in the pen, currently occupied by Joey Wentz, offers more flexibility, and he likely won’t be the only waiver claim to feature in this group throughout the year. With that many players to move around, I don’t think the Pirates will feel blocked by Mayza’s presence on the roster. Far more likely is that he just doesn’t have it anymore – but I wouldn’t put the odds of that above 50%. For the price, I think this is a great signing.
Let’s review: I like each of these signings on their own. I think both players have a reasonable chance of contributing as back-of-the-roster role players in 2025, and for less than $3 million combined, that’s just good business. Now, let’s get to the bigger picture: I absolutely hate what the Pirates are doing this offseason, these signings included.
Skenes is a franchise-altering player. The Pirates are going to be paying one of the best players in baseball peanuts for the next five years. Opportunities like that don’t come around often. We’re talking Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Joe Mauer, David Price, and Adley Rutschman. When you draft a player this good, you should build a team around him.
The Pirates are building a team – it’s just not a contending team. They took a team that won 76 games last year, traded for Spencer Horwitz, wiped their hands together, and said “job’s done!” They’re on track to spend less money on payroll this year than they did in 2024. They have the third-lowest luxury tax payroll in baseball as it stands right now, and it’s January 29, so I doubt they’re just waiting to make five huge signings and flip the narrative.
You can’t explain this away with some weak appeal to small versus large markets. I think that’s a tired complaint in the first place, but it’s even less applicable here. The Pirates ran larger payrolls than their 2025 projection in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. League-wide revenue is up more than 20% from that era. Inflation is up. Total payroll is up. The Pirates got ahead of the crowd in avoiding messy RSN bankruptcies; their games are broadcast on SportsNet Pittsburgh, a network they own a stake in, so they don’t have to worry about getting unceremoniously dropped in court.
Meanwhile, the Pirates are running a comically lean operation. They have only three players with guaranteed contracts that last past 2025: Reynolds, Mitch Keller, and Ke’Bryan Hayes. They don’t have any huge arbitration paydays looming; David Bednar is the only Pirate projected to make more than $2.5 million this year in arb.
A classic excuse for not spending: “We like our current players more than the guys available.” That’s defensible for some teams, but certainly not for this one. The Pirates have Bailey Falter (career: 4.62 ERA, 4.56 FIP) and Johan Oviedo (career: 4.32 ERA, 4.57 FIP) in their season-opening rotation, and Oviedo is coming off a missed season. We’re projecting them to bat Isiah Kiner-Falefa (career line: .262/.313/.351, 83 wRC+) leadoff. Five of the Pirates’ starting nine are projected for a below-average batting line, according to Steamer. If the Pirates can’t find free agents that could start in Pittsburgh in 2025, they aren’t looking hard enough.
That’s a bummer for Frazier and Mayza, who are bound to get unfairly equated to the team’s overall spendthrift nature. It’s not their fault Pittsburgh is choosing to sit out free agency almost entirely; they just signed with a team that had playing time for them. They’re both reasonable players who have consistently contributed plate appearances and innings pitched to playoff teams. Frazier might’ve expected to end up on a contending team, but if you were to ask him if he thought he’d be one of the big additions to a playoff hopeful this winter, he’d laugh right along with you. It’s absurd on its face! He’s a role player who signed the 83rd-biggest contract of the offseason.
Maybe the Pirates will make the playoffs in 2025. Skenes will pitch a full year in the big leagues, Oneil Cruz might finally click, Horwitz is a personal favorite, and I plan on celebrating Jared Jones Day every time he pitches. But whether by front office choice or owner mandate, the Pirates aren’t supporting their young core. After this year, a full third of Skenes’s team-controlled time on the Pirates will be over. Let’s be real – he’s probably not staying there after six years. Do something with that time! No offense to Frazier or Mayza – but this isn’t enough.
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.
i actively like the Mayza signing. Once he got his velo back in the 2nd half, he was a perfectly reasonable player, to the tune of a 4 ERA. combine that with his track record before 2024, and its a perfectly reasonable signing.
I just think Frazier actively makes them worse, man. If youre going to sign a “left handed infielder to help complement Hayes’ and Gonzales’ weaknesses vs righties, then at least get a lefty who is going to produce a OPS of vs RHP over 700!
If the last 24 hours had been Mayza and Moncada, i’m applauding. Moncada has upside and is at least an above average hitter vs RHP for his career. Frazier is so bad that id actively prefer his spot be given to another righty like Nick Yorke or Billy Cooke, despite the lack of left handedness. They have Enmanuel Valdez as a lefty. I’d rather watch him too.
and to blow a 40 man roster spot on Frazier, i just dont understand. He’s not just “not good anymore.” He’s actively bad.
Frazier = “veteran leadership”, which is incalculably valuable. His qWARp is 7.25, which is the best in the majors. This will be a career year for him.
Disclaimer: I work for the Pirates. 😉
They need a left-handed bench player who can’t hit to complement their right-handed bench players who can’t hit.
“After this year, a full third of Skenes’s team-controlled time on the Pirates will be over. Let’s be real – he’s probably not staying there after six years.”
Let’s be even more real—he’s gone after four-and-a-half or five.
I wonder what the Dodgers would give them if they traded him now.
Any three players whose combined salaries are less than or equal to Skenes. Probably
Probably half of their top ten prospects.
Pgh’s mgmt. is not competent enough to ask/get anything equitable like this…
the NICEST thing i can say about the pirates is that it looks like theyre trying something to the effect of “let’s have a lineup where almost everyone is hard to strike out.”
You put palacios in RF and Endy Rodriguez at C, then it really becomes clear. Cruz would be the only high-ish K guy.
i’m not saying that there’s some secret moneyballesque nature to “let’s wear down opposing pitching with tough AB’s” but idk, it’s something to try i guess.
Actually, if they don’t strike out, wouldn’t that mean they are more likely to see fewer pitches per PA than the average hitter?
It is indeed frustrating, they spent $30M last winter (albeit on 6 guys instead of 1 meaningful player), this year it has been $10M total. It makes no sense to be counting on the ZiPS version of Suwinski in RF and not bringing in any options at SS to push IKF to his best UTIL role. I am OK with the SP given the 4 interesting arms in AAA, but they lineup at this point looks like malpractice by a GM.
GM can’t spend money he doesn’t have.
You can’t sign a real RF and a real SS for 10M combined.
This is beyond the GM; this is the owner neglecting his team.
It’s like you’re not reading the article or struggle with RCCA and immediately default to GM sucks
If there’s one thing I learned from the comment section of Baumann’s article, it’s that fans don’t appreciate the SACRIFICES a fifth generation billionaire like Bob Nutting is making every time he pockets revenue sharing money rather than spending it on players!!!
Only WOKE SOCIALISTS like Hedge Fund owners and Private Equity firms view teams as assets whose value can be grown through investment.
A real businessman owns a team by being The Eldest Boy, and knows that it’s a magic money tree that daddy gave him.
Almost all MLB owners are rent-seekers who just want to sit on their asset and let guaranteed dollars flow in. Nutting is only the worst in degree, rather than in kind.
At least FSG are relatively straight up about having grown the Red Sox to the point where the juice isn’t worth the squeeze, relative to their other investments, rather than making a display about caring.
It’s interesting that both FSG and the Ricketts are like “you’ve got your championship(s), so we’re not going to spend real money anymore; we’ll aim for 84 wins and hope we luck into the WC and a playoff run! Also check out these prospects”
Henry at least gave it a real 15 years of commitment to spending – the Ricketts gave maybe 7?
@Otter – talking about what are likely top 5-ish revenue teams (Red Sox and Cubs) doesn’t address broader points about MLB’s overall economic system and the resulting net flow of FA talent/star power from the smaller 10-15 markets to big markets.
Nor does saying that the Pirates likely could/should spend more when a reasonable estimate is that the Pirates’ revenue (both actual and market potential) puts their sustainable payroll in the Brewers/Royals range, as opposed to where the Pirates currently operate.
Particular fan bases can have their understandable complaints about team spending. But if *all* of these complaints were addressed, the talent flow of FA’s would be in the same direction with the particular team names slightly different.
It still points to “top market team with smart front office and good player development” has those plus ~$300 million (or more) CBT payroll. While “small market team with smart front office and good player development” has those and ~$150 to ~$180 million CBT payroll.
To be fair, just about every one who inherits large sums is a rent seeker. If I had $4 million I would never work again and live within walking distance of Nationals park. I would die from cancer caused by hot dogs.
Ah, these guys get left a few billion.
Smart folks in that situation take $50m, to make sure they and theirs and theirs will never ever have to worry about anything ever again…and then give the rest to someone like Guggenheim Partners to grow it.
MLB inheritors tend to be Kendall Roy types…in contrast to the smart ones, who are more like Conor Roy.
Wasn’t Connor Roy the “dumb” brother? The one who tried running for President & got like 1% of the vote?
“He died doing what he loved…”
(Stuffing his face with nitrates while bleeding rectally)
Lester – yes, the information that we have from the outside indicates that the Pirates could/should spend more on payroll, especially during a competitive window when they have a lot of young talent on the team.
You are still strawmanning the broader points of the arguments with which you disagree. (I’ll at least give you credit for consistency. Snarky insults targeted at the weak strawman of opposing views tracks very well with being a fan of Baumann’s writing about baseball economic structure, especially his most recent article.)
A reasonable take is that the Pirates could perhaps push payroll up into the range of the Brewers, Royals, and Twins (all $160 to $170 million CBT payrolls in 2024) from the $120 million that the Pirates were at last year (and tracking lower for 2025).
That still dramatically contrasts with the Dodgers financial ability to run CBT payrolls of ~$350 million in 2024 and ~$380 million in 2025.
The broader point is big-market / small-market revenue disparities and the competitive / star power impact of the resulting net flow of FA’s from small revenue to high revenue teams.
The strawman flimsier than a billionheir’s claims about how running a business works has yet to be constructed…and no one uncritically parroting that nonsense deserves anything but snark.
Derek Jeter had access to the Marlins’ books, as a co-owner.
When his partners cried poor, he laughed, said “Fuck You,” and left.
If only they’d picked someone like you!
Lester – the Marlins were a team that bottomed out their payroll at ~$80 million (CBT calcs).
Do you look at actual numbers or just have a mental model of teams spending “a lot” or “not much”?
I talked about teams spending $80 million to $90 million more than that ($160 to $170 million CBT payrolls), and gave specific examples.
I mean…if you think this is about “CBT payrolls,” when it comes to teams who will never approach the CBT, you don’t grasp the core concept of the issue well enough to have a useful conversation about it.
Lester – I’m quoting CBT payrolls for all teams because it’s an apples-to-apples way to make sure we’re looking at every team’s payroll on the same basis.
It has nothing to do with whether a team is going to be near the CBT line. CBT payroll is a known, well-defined calc that (1) takes into account player benefits costs that all teams pay, (2) uses AAV of contracts, and (3) for sure picks up if teams are receiving or sending money tied to traded players’ contracts.
And I am purposely precise in picking a well-defined definition because we sometimes get wildly bad information quoted in the comments. Such as a comment (and follow-ups) to Baumann’s article last week that wildly understated the 2024 Dodgers’ payroll because someone looked at the wrong column in Spotrac and quoted a number that failed to consider deferrals at all (therefore valuing deferred $ at 0).
Soooo…we agree that the boot-gobblers who regurgitate CBT stats and shoe polish don’t understand the extent to which teams underinvestment in their assets extends beyond the major league payroll?
When rancid nepotwats like Nutting get rid of Low-A like they did A- and the Pioneer, economically illiterate eejits like you will be screeching the Exact. Same. Shit. in their defense.
But hey! I truly believe that you won’t remember this interaction, as you bray confidently about how some billionaire you’ll never meet had NO CHOICE but to deny thousands of Latin American children the opportunity to even prove that they could compete in affiliated ball.
If you actually had confidence in your arguments you wouldn’t go around insulting everyone.
You keep saying this, synco.
You’ve never refuted one.
Go on, try.
Right here. Right now.
Be specific.
As far as my sneakiness goes…I’d never go so far as to call you a “useful idiot.”
You don’t seem nearly intellectually curious, or adept, enough to ever be “useful.”
That isnt what I said at all and I am well aware of the ownership problems. Born and bred Pirate fan for 50 years. They certainly have more budget room that the paltry $10M they have spent this winter, last year was evidence of that in a pre-Skenes world. In addition BC has been GM for 6 years now, he is directly responsible for this roster and rebuild. He has trade pieces available in young SP, the #1 commodity in the game. BC is to blame for sqaundering $30M last year for no return and a whole lot of wishing and hoping appears to be his plan for 2025.
Having a bad owner is not a free pass for your GM, player development, or coaching. Both things can be a problem.
I am calling bullsh*t…
They certainly have more budget room that the paltry $10M – how do you know this? Calling BSBC has been GM for 6 years now. BS. It’ll be 6 years on November 18th. Right now, he’s had 5 seasonsHe has trade pieces available in young SP – the #1commodity in the game. Is it the #1 commodity in the game? BS – pitchers have too much risk to be the #1 commodity in the game.BC is to blame for squandering $30M last year for no return. BS. Grandal 1.4fWAR, Chapman 1.1 fWAR, Taylor 0.4 fWAR and Perez 0.3fWAR.Having a bad owner is not a free pass for your GM, player development or coaching. Half BS. Hitting dev not good. Pitching dev good.
“They certainly have more budget room than $10m.”
It may be true that we don’t “know” this, but it is a reasonable surmise given they spent 3 times as much in free agency last year. While the budget could have declined since last year, given the attention on Skenes and presumed revenue that came with that, it seems unlikely to have declined.
Cherington has had five seasons. In that time, his best free agent signing has been McCutchen, which was practically forced on him. His best trade has been …. maybe the Adam Frazier deal? It’s bleak. His drafts have been relatively good, in terms of players making it to the majors; less good in terms of becoming successful, Skenes and maybe Jones aside. Pitching development has been solid so far. Hitting development is an issue.
[WAR values of players signed as FAs last year]. You excluded Tellez (-0.5) and McCutchen (0.5) who cancel each other out. That’s 3.2 across 6 players, 4 of whom were starters for most of the season. If that isn’t squandering $30m, I don’t know what is.
Do you want me to talk about the trades? Just last year, Edward Olivares (negative WAR), Bryan de la Cruz (worst player in MLB post trade), Marco Gonzales (0.2 WAR in 7 starts), IKF (60 wRC+ post-trade). Baseball Prospectus used to have a game where you’d try to put together the worst possible fantasy team – sometimes I think Cherington is playing that game.
Is the argument that Cherington just needs more time to see the fruits of his “build”? The fruits are already here; in many cases, they’ve already been shown the door. The ZiPs article talked about how little upside there was on the roster. If you are going to operate on this budget and compete, then you have to hit the big scores (Skenes), but you also need to excel at identifying talent on the minor deals as well. Cherington has been incredibly bad at that, almost no breakouts and lots of “I can’t believe how bad that guy is.”
And yes, the lack of spend is an issue too. But frankly, I’m worried about what Cherington would spend it on if he had it.
Well said. Who are his best minor pick ups so far? Holderman I guess. Bart maybe? Either way it took him four years to find one.
Yeah, Holderman or Bart. His best international signing so far has been Bae, who isn’t great and who they only got because of the Braves’ thing. We’ll see how Blanco or Matoma turn out, I guess. And correction, his best trade was probably Musgrove, which brought back Bednar and Endy. Other than that and Suwinski, not a lot to show for his rebuild trades. And he may have held onto Bednar too long.
Wasn’t Bae signed in 2018 by the previous regime? Their international signings have been awful for numerous front office tenures now. They had Marte and Polanco…Marte was signed at the end of the Littlefield era. It says something that most of their international prospects were acquired in trades.
I have zero doubt they’ve held onto Bednar already. Bad bodied closers don’t age well (see Joel Hanrahan).
Possibly blowing the 1-1 pick on Henry Davis is a huge black mark against his ledger.
Those chances only come along so often & it sure looks like that one will hit at about 20 percentile of success as the ceiling. Could be just a total bust.
It’s looking that way. They tried to get cute and spread money around by drafting Davis and siphoning money off to Chandler, Solometo, and White. So far that looks like 1/3 of a good idea. They honestly could have taken Mayer and Chandler and gone mostly underslot after that.
henry Davis destroyed AAA and has scuffled in ML. (catcher does take away hitting time though).
Mayer has yet to do anything in the Majors, when he does we can be revisionists. I don’t think he’ll be Bobby Witt. He might only be Kevin Newman. then we can’t talk.
They should check in on Pete Alonso and see if he’s interested in a pillow contract.
“Why bother, the Jays will pay him a cent more than what we’ll offer,” the Pirates FO probably.
Eh. I doubt they’re allowed to call, in case they land on the “We tried” tracker and make Nutting look cheap when he signs an incredibly reasonable contract.
I get that LA and Pittsburgh are in different stratospheres, but just so striking to me from a philosophical level that the Dodgers/Braves are run as a business (as opposed to a billionaires hobby – Steve Cohen) and find it to be in the best interest of the business to invest in the product, but guys like Nutting say it’s a business yet act like slum lords.
Guggenheim and Turner’s decision makers could never grasp the depth of understanding granted to Bob Nutting by being The Eldest Boy.
I get the feeling that DodgerCorp is a vast and sprawling business empire, of which the MLB team is but the most famously public component.
…and that Nutting is running a baseball team to be a profit center for his kids.
And which of those businesses make more profit or have increased in value more?
Sure, some of that is being in LA and being on TBS, but far from all of it. MLB owners have figured out that they can either put in effort and invest (which incurs risk) and maybe hit it big. Or they can just sit on their asses and let their net worth’s grow without any risk or effort at all. It’s like Adam Sandler’s theory of movie making.
They really should have been in on Santander.
Right field is a big glaring hole and they did not fix it.
Not so sure there was anything they could do about shortstop, with such strong interest in Adames and everyone else being a bum. I still think they should be all-in on Bichette next offseason, but I think the Blue Jays still have a pretty high price on him right now. I don’t think Thomas Harrington is going to cut it as a headliner.
Everywhere else is more or less okay.
Santander comes with too many red flags. If they were going to go with a risky OF, I would have preferred O’Neill. Also, I’m not sure why they aren’t in on Kim for SS on a pillow deal. Agree on Bichette for 2026.
The owner is awful, and the GM is really unimaginative.
Santander has too many red flags but you prefer O’Neill! O’Neill is covered in red flags!
The big advantage for O’Neill is he wouldn’t have cost a draft pick but I honestly don’t know that it such a big deal. But they both signed somewhere else, so it’s irrelevant now.
Maybe Taylor Ward is still available and the Angels would take Thomas Harrington for him? That’s about the only play I see here.
O’Neill is younger, not as bad defensively, better on the bases, the injuries drove his price and term down, no draft pick. Of course he has red flags; the Pirates aren’t in the market for the guys who don’t have them.
Pgh GMs are hired to fail, quietly & efficiently… you are misunderstanding the job description in Pgh.
As long as Nutting is the owner there is no hope for the Pirates to be contenders. And since he refuses to sell, Skenes’ first shot at the playoffs will come after he gets traded, probably at the 2028 trade deadline.
Well, this would be true if not for direct evidence in 2013-2015 to the contrary. The won 98 games in 2015 when they ran into a redhot Arrieta in a 1 game playoff. They can get there, but everything has to break right for them.
Yeah, the Pirates won the second most games in MLB over that three year span. Really tough luck, because the team that won the most was the Cardinals, so they got no division titles and a grand total of 8 playoff games (just one actually playoff series) out of that span. It’s a shame they didn’t have that peak from 11-13 or 15-17- very different story if the timing is just a little different
Not getting there with 40-yr. old relievers, Rowdy Telez & JWBae.
This franchise has absolutely no intention of competing or winning.
Cheapness is only part of the equation.
-“Not drafting an above average hitter since 2013”
-Dealing away 10 man years of Bell Musgrove Marte Frazier Taillon for, basically, a closer and a guy who might be an okay catcher
-A lack of urgency and competitive nature
To me are just as big of issues as cheapness. 3-4 more good hitters from the last 6 years of drafts and trades current team look competitive.
So this goes deeper than bob nutting. Any GM worth his weight in salt should be able to tank for 5 years and have a cheap playoff contenser in year 6.
…except Pgh GMs are not hired for their salt.
Pgh GMs are hired to spin failure & field losing teams… their KPI is the amount of charity money that MLB funnels to the franchise in exchange for quietly filling the schedule for the teams that matter.
This is clearly a bunch of communist aspersions against a team DEEPLY committed to winning!!!
I bet you’re being paid by Guggenheim Partners to astroturf controversy!!!!
Signed,
Hal Steinbrenner and the Salary Cap Crew
I don’t have a very high opinion of Cherington as a GM but it’s hard to see what he can do if all we can offer are 1 year deals under $8 million. He and his front office deserve some blame for the continued failure to develop position players and some bad trades over the course of this rebuild, but good lord, it’s just not possible to win without a little bit of free agent spending. The projected lineup this year is depressing for year 6(?) of the teardown and rebuild, and I don’t think our starting pitching behind Skenes and Jones is as deep as some people seem to think. We could just be starting another rebuild in 2027.
Are they even rebuilding? They just seem to be bad at this point.
Plus then you have to start wondering if ownership is even offering enough spending to run a modern dev and analysis department. Like maybe the player developments blows in part because they can’t spend any money to improve it or expand it or whatever. Just really grim.
“another rebuild”
???
Pgh has been a permanent construction site since 2015.
So, my friend has a theory, and I think he’s right (we’re Pirates fans, sadly): Having Skenes means the Pirates are actually *less* likely to spend money. Why? Because they know every time Skenes pitches at home, they’re guaranteed a huge crowd at the ballpark. He’s their meal ticket. If there was no reason for people to show up, they might actually have to spend some money. Now, they know they can coast for the next few years and rake in the profits. The Pirates are a scam and Nutting should be in jail.
Hi Ben! Pirates fan here. Could you please clarify the young hitting prospects in which we are “chock full of”?
Griffin has potential for sure. But other than that? I’m not seeing it. Termarr Johnson’s projection as a big leaguer has seemed to have dropped quite a bit. I like Nick Yorke. But that’s about it.
So having 2-3 Top 100ish guys isn’t awful, but I would not say we are “chock full of” young hitting prospects. Unless there are certain dudes you’re higher on than expected. I would use that wording for systems like the Rays, Red Sox, Mariners, etc… But not the Pirates. I’d say we have an average amount of young hitting prospects, and none of them really have high end potential (maybe Griffin).
Not Ben here… but when I read it I took that to be the pig pile of young guys already up at middle inf and RF plus the peeps you mention. They actually had talent coming up but for multiple reasons it hasn’t clicked for any of them. However, development in the majors hasn’t been a buccos mgmt skillset, so who knows what magic the new hit coach can instill.
Yeah I’m already writing a lot of those guys off. I’ll give Henry Davis one last chance to see if he can hit, but my expectations aren’t high. Gonzales cutdown on his K% last season, which was nice to see, but I don’t think his upside is much higher than what he showed last year. Peguero has been a bust and the fact they barely gave him big league run last year tells you all you need to know. I’m still holding out hope on Endy Rodriguez coming off TJ, but he’s gonna be 25 soon.
But yeah, that’s what we’ve gotten from recent top prospect graduates. It’s very bleak and it’s why spending in FA for bats is so essential.
They just got very little in their returns at the start of the rebuild. It’s basically Bednar and maybe if Endy Rodriguez turns into something. Jack had a decent 2023, but he’s always walking that fine line between too many K’s. Until last year when he tried to make more contact and broke entirely.
At this point I believe that Nutting is borderline evil. He refuses to compete and try to win a world series and he refuses to sell the team for a huge profit so that he can reap profits every year.
Milwaukee & Cleveland compete just about every year despite having similar size markets. The Pirates can’t because the owner just doesn’t care.
At this year’s Piratesfest, the team president said that Nutting wants to win, we just need to find a way. He completely ignored that all they had to do was sign one OF along the lines of Hernandez or Santander to give them a legitimate shot at a title. Nutting can say that he wants to win but actions speak louder. I want to bench press 300 lbs. one day. I don’t go to the gym and don’t have any plans to. What are the odds that I will be able to bench press 300 lbs?
I said this earlier but Nutting is really not that different than most other owners. The Brewers’ owner is really the anomaly here, not Nutting.
There are maybe 10 owners in MLB that care about having new baseball fans. The Brewers care because their TV deal is so terrible they live and die by attendance. Almost everyone else is content to sit there and watch guaranteed TV money roll in.
This is not an an entrepreneurial group.
Ironically, even Brewers fans complain about their owner because “they only make the playoffs”…
He had a period of time where he was basically having the team break even, but he seems to have stopped doing that.
I still think he should have spent more when they had the Burnes / Woodruff / Peralta trio at their peak. Now I think it’s a bit more understandable.
Nutting is only a slice of the problem
As the owner, he sets the tone for the entire organization. Since he doesn’t want to win there is no urgency. Just keep doing the perpetual rebuilds every 5 years and sell hope. Except he can’t hire a competent FO staff because anyone that has another job offer would pick the other organization.
If Nutting sells the team, he will have to pay taxes on somewhere around $1.2B of capital gains.
If Nutting dies and his kids inherit the team, their basis resets to the value of the team at the time of his death, and they can sell it with basically no capital gains. (I’m assuming that they pay lawyers and accountants enough that they can get around estate taxes.)
So selling the team himself would basically cost his family $240M.
I am all for avoiding taxes but that doesn’t make him any better. You forget that he is likely making millions on the team and paying taxes each year at a higher tax rate than the long term capital gains rate.
Looking at all the MILB contracts coupled with relatively low dollar and single year deals coupled with the glacier proceedings on a few bigger names like Bregman and Flagerty indicate to me without crossing the conclusion line, many owners are deciding to “sit it out” while the Progressive owners feed. Problem is with wild Card, too many owners are trying to optimize profitability before the almost assured oncoming CBA strike- lockout.
There are few players who don’t want to play for a winner. Being competitive makes getting up every day a lot easier. I hope somehow the MLB Playere Union can create a Franchise Penalty much liked the Luxury Tax for franchises that say finish under .500 on a graduated scale. I don’t have any idea of the dollars, but similar to consecutive over the line Luxury Tax teams have a multiplier for consecutive years etc.
I realize owners by themselves would never approve. That’s why MLB Players Union must make this a priority. We as nationwide fans at minimum are owed the goal to have a local competitive team to support with our dollars. IMO, such an inclusion into the next CBA corrects many problems.
Actually, Pirate ownership decided to sit out with appently no commitment to ever get close to once was proud franchise. Just think how the multiplier for losing seasons would have affected current ownership. Maybe they would have been forced to sell. If the Pirates where a stock, they woukd be a penny one…
Honestly Flaherty and Bregman are probably just asking for too much money.
The Pirates are one of the better examples – maybe the best – of a small market team that could spend more, and particularly should during a competitive window. That’s informed by comparing their current payrolls to teams in (at least approximately) peer markets such as the Brewers, Guardians, Royals, and Twins.
I’ll push back, though, on Ben’s shorthand claim that their RSN situation is good or that the Pirates “got ahead of the curve”.
TLDR: the Pirates were one of 3 MLB teams (others were Astros and Rockies) that in 2023 went through an RSN blow-up with AT&T SportsNet. It was a similar situation to the teams impacted by the DSG (Bally Sports) bankruptcy.
The difference vs. DSG is that we don’t have the public information to know financial details with 100% certainty. We do have those details with DSG because bankruptcy filings are public. The AT&T SportsNet blow-up was overshadowed by the DSG bankruptcy because DSG impacted more teams and because the Chapter 11 process provided greater visibility into financial details.
Details:
The Pirates were on AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh. Warner Brothers Discovery, owner of this and some other RSN’s, announced in early 2023 that it was getting out of the RSN business. WBD gave MLB/NBA/NHL teams on its channels a negotiating ultimatum: work out a deal on the future of these networks – buying them or taking back broadcast rights – or WBD would put the channels into Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Chapter 7 means shut down and liquidation (as opposed to Chapter 11, where the plan is for a reorganization where a lower debt going concern emerges from bankruptcy).
Fenway Sports Group owns the Penguins, who were on the same RSN as the Pirates. FSG also owns the Red Sox and 80% of NESN. The ultimate resolution with AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh is that FSG (80%) and the Pirates (20%) own the channel, having acquired it from WBD. NESN manages the daily operations of the now SportsNet Pittsburgh. Given the situation and lack of public details on purchase price, my best guess is that SportsNet Pittsburgh was sold for a nominal equity purchase price and that the deal mostly amounted to FSG/Pirates taking over operations and assuming liabilities.
The Pirates prior TV deal expired at the end of 2023 in any case. The general assumption given the amount of the Pirates’ prior TV rights deal ($50 to $60 million per deal) is that the Pirates are making less local TV money under their new deal with SportsNet Pittsburgh.
As for the other MLB teams impacted: the Astros and Rockets jointly took over AT&T SportsNet Southwest, now called SpaceCity Home Network. The Rockies elected to air their local games with assistance from MLB, like some of the teams impacted by DSG. AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain therefore went off the air at the end of 2023.
The Mariners seemingly weren’t as impacted by WBD getting out of the RSN business, because the Mariners already had majority ownership (60%) of Root Sports Northwest. (WBD owned the other 40%.) The Mariners took 100% ownership of their RSN. Both the Kraken and TrailBlazers left Root Sports in 2024. The Jazz are still on RootSports in markets other than Seattle, Portland, and Alaska.
typo, should have been $50 to $60 million *per year*
I mean…this sounds like a case of Nutting refusing to take advantage of a *massive* opportunity to increase the Pirates’ annual revenue because it would require him to treat the team like a business rather than a Money Tree.
What is the massive opportunity you see from this situation?
If a competent adult had the same access to the capital Bobby Newport’s daddy gave him, he’d have been aggressively competing to to buy that network, and concede FSG 40%.
Unlike Bobby, John Henry has ever worked for a living, so he understands the value of owning a TV network.
But hey! Don’t let your fundamental ignorance of how sports economics work stop you from spewing whiney bs across this comments section!
Wandering Athletic commenters trying to figure out what Keith and Eno were talking about keep us on our game.
I think this is correct. I think the Pirates are very likely getting less TV revenue than they were before. Let’s also consider the conflict of interest in having the Red Sox ownership group controlling the Pirates TV broadcasts and revenue.
I don’t know if the potential conflict of interest is much of a practical issue with MLB’s territory split. Pirates and the Red Sox don’t overlap at all in MLB local broadcast areas – https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-blackout-restrictions-map-2023-baseball-games/m843wsljyvrrdmf50zjhusre
I’d worry about the conflict of interest much more if it was, hypothetically, the Cubs’ owners controlling a Reds’ RSN and negotiating carriage across most of Indiana for both of those.
Holy.
Fucking.
Shit.
At a certain point, shit surpasses parody.
This DeepSeek of “How to defend Pirates ownership” nearly got me into thinking you were people.
No wonder MSFT dropped.
There are multiple teams (the Cubs are one) that clearly want nothing on their books when the next CBA is agreed to.
All the offseason teeth-gnashing and hand-wringing is going to look incredibly funny in retrospect after the Pirates win 86 games and stumble into the final playoff spot, then beat the Dodgers in the Wild Card round on the backs of gems from Skenes and Jones.
Please, this.
Yes, please, this.
This scenario is a nearly unimaginable disaster outcome for the Dodgers. And a nearly unimaginable best-case dream outcome for the Pirates. That’s where we’re at.
Yinz couldn’t have said it better!
I know you’re being silly, but I mean it when I say opening day is a clean slate. Maybe the pirates are actually masterclassing us. I’m doubtful, but open minded
Shoulda hired Matt Arnold…
Hilarious. Thanks for the laugh.
So the A’s ownership seemingly has self inflicted wounds in support of their desire to abandon Oakland and its following. The strategy involved tanking, creating a standoff with local government and basically holding their own franchise hostage, percolating bad blood and uncompetitive annual teams. But, agree or not, internally they had a plan and executed it. So again, what is The Pirates Plan? I think Pirate Ownership is the worse in baseball. Yes, worse than White Sox or Rockies because although they have had a sequence of strategy failures they at least pop up time to time.
Um…It’s the Pirates. While they did win World Series titles in 1909, 1925, 1960, 1971 and 1979, here’s team that only made the playoffs 17 times in 138 years, including only 6 times since 1990), advancing not once in that recent 24-year span. Here’s hoping they do the right thing by Skenes and subsequently Chandler by trading the two of them for a Chris Archer type as they did Glasnow (maybe the RETURN of Shane Baz?). Players as good as Skenes and Chandler do not deserve to toil for a cheap, irrelevant minor-league franchise masquerading as an MLB team (same for the White Sox, Rockies and Athletics or whoever they are now).
In 6 years you come to Yankees Paul Skenes! bwa haa haa … but please .. yes do that.
Thank you Ben! As a lifelong (52 years), and I DO mean lifelong, Pirates fan I absolutely despise Bob Nutting as a human being, and the institution is also accountable for allowing him to simply not even try to compete while raking in money. It’s an utter disgrace.
The End
A fantastic writeup and analysis. Heard about this on a podcast and came to check it out. Good stuff!
There are certainly positives to the signing of Frazier and, maybe, Mayza. I wonder what Skenes makes of bringing these guys in? If the Pirates, like the Blue Jays, were occasionally mentioned as being in the hunt for top shelf talent but kept losing out to richer teams, I’d feel like the management was at least trying to be genuinely competitive. But I never – repeat, NEVER – hear them mentioned. That makes me think they are either just not trying or have some mysterious magical solution up their sleeves. Not a big believer in magic, I gotta say. Come on, Ben and Travis, prove me wrong.
Brilliant. Great article
They are so going to hold back Bubba Chandler at the beginning of the year for “reasons”
People say the Dodgers are bad for baseball, but Bob Nutting hurts the sport vastly more. It’s not even close.
^^^THIS^^^ 100% agreement.
MLB pays Pgh to lose, and Pgh’s ownership is quite happy with this arrangement.
There is no mystery or debate here… MLB is a de facto 12-team league (but requires 30+ teams to maintain revenue levels YoY).
Pgh is a permanent CHARITY.
Pgh is not managed to win… quite the opposite – Pgh is managed to LOSE.
The Pirates are “saving” Skene’s arm for the Big Media Market club that sign him in 4 years. So very nice of Pgh to forego actual competitive play so that NY or LA can ride Skenes to multiple WS appearances in the future. Such nice guys there in Pgh.
MLB shows it’s gratitude for Pgh’s losing/sacrifice by sending $100mil.+ in charity payments to Pgh every year. Pgh uses that charity to sign AAA/journeymen/tired veterans to bloated contracts, which makes the PA very happy.
Everyone wins… except the fans in Pgh.