The Pirates’ Approach to Getting Paul Skenes to the Playoffs? Sign Adam Frazier and Tim Mayza

Here’s a sentence that you probably didn’t expect to see a few years ago: The Pittsburgh Pirates were one of the most exciting teams of 2024. They had the Rookie of the Year and an instant contender for best pitcher in baseball in Paul Skenes. Jared Jones was electric. They’re chock full of young hitting prospects. And let’s reiterate: Paul Skenes!
As you might expect, the Pirates hit this offseason with some momentum. It’s hard to find superstars, but Skenes is one of the best five pitchers on the planet, and honestly, I think he might be the best, period. This is the type of winter that lends itself to going for it. The hype will likely never be greater. Add a star or two around Skenes, fill out the bottom of the lineup, and this team could win a weak NL Central. Come playoff time, no one in the world would want to face the Pirates. So it’s with some remorse that I announce their latest signings. On Monday, lefty reliever Tim Mayza agreed to a one-year, $1.15 million contract; on Tuesday, utilityman Adam Frazier followed suit with a one-year, $1.525 million pact.
Frazier was a fun story the last time he was on the Pirates. In the depths of their despair, he was a rare burst of energy, Luis Arraez before Arraez hit the big time. He rarely struck out, rarely hit homers, and caused chaos by putting the ball in play even without blazing speed. Heck, he even drew a nice trade return when the Pirates sent him to the Padres ahead of the 2021 deadline, headlined by Jack Suwinski and Tucupita Marcano, both of whom have made contributions to the big league club.
If the Pirates had an Adam Frazier day, I’d be into it. He and once-and-current teammate Bryan Reynolds were two of the only fun players on those bleak Pirates teams; they even started the 2021 All-Star Game together. (Shout out to Josh Bell and Starling Marte, you guys were fun too.) Maybe he could slap the ceremonial first pitch the other way and then take off running to the roar of the crowd. A guy with Frazier’s physical tools carving out an eight-year major league career and earning $25 million? It absolutely deserves recognition.
He’s not at his peak anymore, to be clear. The years since Frazier left Pittsburgh haven’t gone as well as his time in the City of Bridges. He disappointed in that San Diego cameo. Then the Padres flipped him to the Mariners in an offseason trade, and he racked up an 82 wRC+ with them in 2022. The Orioles were the next to come calling, but he struggled in Baltimore and lost his starter’s job by the end of 2023. In 2024, he decamped to Kansas City and slumped to a 63 wRC+; he started the year as the leadoff hitter and ended the year as a backup.
Maybe that last part sounds a bit harsh, but it shouldn’t diminish what has otherwise been an impressive career, one that is a monumental credit to his skillset and work ethic. The man is 33 now, squarely into the downside of his career. It shouldn’t be surprising that he’s transitioned from solid starter to a bench role. When he retires, he’ll be a has-been, but it would have been extremely easy for him to be a never-was. His five-year run with the Pirates was great, and his ability to play multiple positions got him to the playoffs on three separate teams in the three full seasons since he left. Hats off to him.
He’s valuable even today thanks to his spectacular versatility. Lefty-hitting platoon second basemen don’t grow on trees. Platoon second basemen who can handle the outfield corners are even rarer. The reason playoff hopefuls keep acquiring Frazier is that he offers them options. Not sure whether right field or second base will be the spot where you’ll need to run a platoon? Sign Adam Frazier, and you’ll have either covered. The Royals example is perfect; he started the year as the big half of a second base platoon and ended it alternating with Hunter Renfroe in right. Even then, he also mixed in time at third, left, and first.
From that perspective, he’s a completely reasonable addition to a 2025 roster. If his 2024 season was a good reflection of his current true talent, he’s probably not long for the majors. But he doesn’t need to bounce back by much to contribute. Incumbent second baseman Nick Gonzales has struggled against righties so far in his young career. Would it shock you if Frazier takes over there for at least a stretch of the season? The price is right too; even if Frazier only turns into a meaningful contributor a quarter of the time, Pittsburgh would happily make that wager.
The same could be said about Mayza. Well, not the fun-Pirate-on-a-bad-Pirates-team part, obviously, but Mayza’s deal is also a solid one in a vacuum. Is he an elite reliever? No. Is he a good enough reliever to figure in a playoff bullpen? The signs sure point to yes; he’s pitched in each of the last three postseasons.
Mayza’s particular skill is shutting down lefties. In his career, he’s allowed a .252 wOBA when facing same-handed batters, an absurd mark. That ranks eighth among pitchers who have faced 500 lefties over the span of his career. Now, can he handle righties? He cannot. But for $1.15 million, and at age 33? I’d be very happy to give Mayza a one-year shot. The Pirates bullpen is light on lefties – fellow new signee Caleb Ferguson is the best of them, and he’s not exactly a mainstay – and seeing Mayza as the top option for that role by year’s end would be entirely unsurprising.
Even better, this roster affords Pittsburgh some flexibility in the bullpen. Carmen Mlodzinski, Kyle Nicolas, and Colin Holderman all have options remaining, though Holderman’s options are unlikely to be exercised given his setup role. The last spot in the pen, currently occupied by Joey Wentz, offers more flexibility, and he likely won’t be the only waiver claim to feature in this group throughout the year. With that many players to move around, I don’t think the Pirates will feel blocked by Mayza’s presence on the roster. Far more likely is that he just doesn’t have it anymore – but I wouldn’t put the odds of that above 50%. For the price, I think this is a great signing.
Let’s review: I like each of these signings on their own. I think both players have a reasonable chance of contributing as back-of-the-roster role players in 2025, and for less than $3 million combined, that’s just good business. Now, let’s get to the bigger picture: I absolutely hate what the Pirates are doing this offseason, these signings included.
Skenes is a franchise-altering player. The Pirates are going to be paying one of the best players in baseball peanuts for the next five years. Opportunities like that don’t come around often. We’re talking Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Joe Mauer, David Price, and Adley Rutschman. When you draft a player this good, you should build a team around him.
The Pirates are building a team – it’s just not a contending team. They took a team that won 76 games last year, traded for Spencer Horwitz, wiped their hands together, and said “job’s done!” They’re on track to spend less money on payroll this year than they did in 2024. They have the third-lowest luxury tax payroll in baseball as it stands right now, and it’s January 29, so I doubt they’re just waiting to make five huge signings and flip the narrative.
You can’t explain this away with some weak appeal to small versus large markets. I think that’s a tired complaint in the first place, but it’s even less applicable here. The Pirates ran larger payrolls than their 2025 projection in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. League-wide revenue is up more than 20% from that era. Inflation is up. Total payroll is up. The Pirates got ahead of the crowd in avoiding messy RSN bankruptcies; their games are broadcast on SportsNet Pittsburgh, a network they own a stake in, so they don’t have to worry about getting unceremoniously dropped in court.
Meanwhile, the Pirates are running a comically lean operation. They have only three players with guaranteed contracts that last past 2025: Reynolds, Mitch Keller, and Ke’Bryan Hayes. They don’t have any huge arbitration paydays looming; David Bednar is the only Pirate projected to make more than $2.5 million this year in arb.
A classic excuse for not spending: “We like our current players more than the guys available.” That’s defensible for some teams, but certainly not for this one. The Pirates have Bailey Falter (career: 4.62 ERA, 4.56 FIP) and Johan Oviedo (career: 4.32 ERA, 4.57 FIP) in their season-opening rotation, and Oviedo is coming off a missed season. We’re projecting them to bat Isiah Kiner-Falefa (career line: .262/.313/.351, 83 wRC+) leadoff. Five of the Pirates’ starting nine are projected for a below-average batting line, according to Steamer. If the Pirates can’t find free agents that could start in Pittsburgh in 2025, they aren’t looking hard enough.
That’s a bummer for Frazier and Mayza, who are bound to get unfairly equated to the team’s overall spendthrift nature. It’s not their fault Pittsburgh is choosing to sit out free agency almost entirely; they just signed with a team that had playing time for them. They’re both reasonable players who have consistently contributed plate appearances and innings pitched to playoff teams. Frazier might’ve expected to end up on a contending team, but if you were to ask him if he thought he’d be one of the big additions to a playoff hopeful this winter, he’d laugh right along with you. It’s absurd on its face! He’s a role player who signed the 83rd-biggest contract of the offseason.
Maybe the Pirates will make the playoffs in 2025. Skenes will pitch a full year in the big leagues, Oneil Cruz might finally click, Horwitz is a personal favorite, and I plan on celebrating Jared Jones Day every time he pitches. But whether by front office choice or owner mandate, the Pirates aren’t supporting their young core. After this year, a full third of Skenes’s team-controlled time on the Pirates will be over. Let’s be real – he’s probably not staying there after six years. Do something with that time! No offense to Frazier or Mayza – but this isn’t enough.
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
i actively like the Mayza signing. Once he got his velo back in the 2nd half, he was a perfectly reasonable player, to the tune of a 4 ERA. combine that with his track record before 2024, and its a perfectly reasonable signing.
I just think Frazier actively makes them worse, man. If youre going to sign a “left handed infielder to help complement Hayes’ and Gonzales’ weaknesses vs righties, then at least get a lefty who is going to produce a OPS of vs RHP over 700!
If the last 24 hours had been Mayza and Moncada, i’m applauding. Moncada has upside and is at least an above average hitter vs RHP for his career. Frazier is so bad that id actively prefer his spot be given to another righty like Nick Yorke or Billy Cooke, despite the lack of left handedness. They have Enmanuel Valdez as a lefty. I’d rather watch him too.
and to blow a 40 man roster spot on Frazier, i just dont understand. He’s not just “not good anymore.” He’s actively bad.
Frazier = “veteran leadership”, which is incalculably valuable. His qWARp is 7.25, which is the best in the majors. This will be a career year for him.
Disclaimer: I work for the Pirates. 😉
They need a left-handed bench player who can’t hit to complement their right-handed bench players who can’t hit.