The Post-Deadline Trading Market

This post is a combination of primer and thought about the post-deadline waiver period that comes each August. It came up during a conversation I had with Jonah Keri yesterday and we both agreed on the premise that this August could see more waiver deals than those in the past based on the financial fears buzzing around the league.

Take Chad Qualls for example. His contract calls for roughly $4.19 million to be paid to him this season. Since we’re right around 60 percent of the way done with the season, we can estimate that Qualls’ is still due somewhere between $1.6 and $1.8 million. Qualls will qualify for free agency after the season and seems unlikely to reach Type B compensation. Essentially, at season’s end the Diamondbacks will lose Qualls for nothing unless they re-sign him.

It is impossible to know whether Qualls has trade value equal to or exceeding the Diamondbacks’ desired return. The only indications we have are that Qualls is not on a new team and his performance seemingly calls for a lowered value from previous seasons. The combination of poor performance – even if only by prehistoric metrics – and pending free agency is not the kind that produces a euphoric potion of prospect goodness.

Say the Diamondbacks don’t find an offer to their liking by Saturday. They aren’t in contention and Qualls’ giant ERA probably won’t cause too much of a public relations nightmare, so what they can do after Saturday is place Qualls on waivers. The first time, these waivers are revocable. If a team, the Yankees for example, claimed Qualls, the D-Backs would have a few days to work out a trade with the Yankees for someone else who either A) cleared waivers (and thus is able to be traded throughout the n waiver deadline period); or B) is not on the 40-man roster.

If they could not agree to a trade then the D-Backs could either let the Yankees take him (and his $1.6-1.8 million price tag) or pull him off waivers. They could then place him back on waivers, but this time it would be irrevocable. Meaning, of course, the D-Backs could do nothing if the Yankees again got their paws on him besides pass the check.

The incentive for the Yankees (or whatever team) is simple. They (presumably) don’t give up much in the way of talent or players with major league roles at the time for an upgrade with a reduced cost. The D-Backs get some cash they can put towards whatever, and while it’s probably not the ideal return, it’s better than nothing.

And in a league where teams are supposedly more conscious about the bottom line than in recent years, that could be all it takes to acquire talent.