The Red Sox Bizarre Rotation
The Boston Red Sox rotation began the season with some scrutiny as the starting five was filled with average to above average types and no pitcher resembling an ace. That scrutiny has turned to criticism as we near the end of the first month of the season and that rotation has allowed more runs than any other starting group in the American League and their 5.75 ERA is the worst in Major League Baseball. The rotation has gotten off to a terrible start, but the offense has produced and the Red Sox will still enter May with a winning record at 12-10. While a bloated ERA has generated calls for the Red Sox to make a trade for a starter, the current rotation has pitched better than its ERA would indicate. Going forward, the Red Sox rotation should get much better results than we have seen so far.
The Red Sox have given up a lot of runs, but the rotation’s FIP is a middle of the road 3.91. The Red Sox and Cleveland Indians are the only two rotations in MLB to have their ERA and FIP differ by more than one, and for the Red Sox that number is 1.84. The team’s walk rate at 8.8% is a little too high, but they make up for the high walk rate by striking out 22.9% of hitters. Their 14.9% K-BB rate is in the upper third of American League teams. Individually, there is not a single starter with a lower ERA than FIP.
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Buchholz | 25.0 | 5.76 | 2.65 | 2.79 |
| Joe Kelly | 23.2 | 4.94 | 3.60 | 3.19 |
| Justin Masterson | 22.2 | 5.16 | 3.57 | 3.88 |
| Wade Miley | 15.2 | 8.62 | 4.83 | 5.88 |
| Rick Porcello | 32.0 | 5.34 | 4.92 | 4.08 |
In a more visual form:
Of the 118 pitchers with at least 20 innings this season, less than half (49) have a higher ERA than FIP in the early stages of the season. Clay Buchholz’s 3.11 difference is the second-largest in baseball, behind only former teammate Jon Lester. Justin Masterson is 15th, Joe Kelly is 20th, and Wade Miley did not make the list with only 15.2 innings, but his ERA-FIP is the biggest in the rotation. Rick Porcello is only 40th on the list, but his 1.69 home runs per nine innings is nearly double his career mark of 0.95. Porcello’s start last night where he went seven innings, gave up two hits, one run, and two walks while striking out six was certainly encouraging.
Wade Miley has been the most disappointing Red Sox starter. After trading Allen Webster, Rubby de la Rosa, and Raymel Flores to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Miley, the Sox signed him to a reasonable three year extension with a club option that contained around $20 million in guaranteed money. The transition to the American League can be a difficult one, and Miley has mixed in two adequate starts with two really bad starts where he was unable to make it out of the third inning. He currently has more walks than strikeouts, but he has not lost velocity and his pitch mix is similar to the rest of his career.
Like Miley, Clay Buchholz and Rick Porcello appear to be throwing with the same velocity and the same mix of pitches. Justin Masterson has lost some velocity, but is attempting to counter that loss by throwing his slider more. As Carson Cistulli wrote, Joe Kelly has gone the other way, gaining a little velocity, but he is also throwing a slider more and has gotten great results in limited use with a 24% whiff rate, per Brooks Baseball. Kelly is striking out 29% of hitters so far this year. That number is not likely to remain that high, but his ERA should get better as the year progresses. For the entire rotation, the projections see better days ahead.
The chart below compares the pitchers’ current ERA with their projected ERA and FIP from the rest of the season from FanGraphs Depth Charts.
Every Red Sox starter should get better results than what they have shown thus far. While their .308 BABIP is slightly unlikely and there is nothing too unusual about their 11% HR/FB rate, where the Red Sox have been hurt the most this season is in sequencing.
The Red Sox current left on base percentage for starters is 59.3%, worst in the league. That number is bound to move up, and with it the runs will go down. Since 2010, the single worst seasonal LOB% was put forth by the Cleveland Indians in 2012, when they ended the year with a 65.3 LOB%. Over the five previous seasons, here are the worst rotations in April by LOB% and where they ended up at the end of the year.
| Year | Team | April LOB% | Season LOB% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Pirates | 59.9 | 66.3 | 6.4 |
| 2011 | Cubs | 64.5 | 69.4 | 4.9 |
| 2012 | Twins | 62.3 | 67.0 | 4.7 |
| 2013 | Athletics | 64.6 | 73.8 | 9.2 |
| 2014 | Diamondbacks | 61.4 | 69.6 | 8.2 |
| AVERAGE | 62.5 | 69.2 | 6.7 |
Every single team moved up, showing that their April results were somewhat of an aberration. The Red Sox do not have a great rotation, but that was their plan entering the season. The rest of the season positional rankings based on projections have the Red Sox with the 24th best rotation in baseball which is the same spot the Red Sox were in entering the season. The team knew when it did not bring back Jon Lester or sign another big-name free agent like Max Scherzer or James Shields that this was the team they planned on. They chose to spend their money on Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez so they can could try to pummel the opposing pitching staffs and hope that a low-ceiling, stable rotation would put them in contention.
Despite poor results from the pitching staff, their plan has worked. Only the Blue Jays have scored more than the Red Sox 113 runs this year. While the .318 wOBA and 98 wRC+ are in the middle of the pack, the team’s .272 BABIP is bound to improve. The Red Sox have a winning record and sit just one game behind the New York Yankees for first place in the AL East. Their odds to win the division are nearly double that of any other team in the East at 47%. They are currently projected to win 88 games which is three games ahead of the Yankees and six games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays. If the Red Sox rotation fails to stabilize as the season goes on, they have the resources to make a big move, but for the moment they might be better served to see what they really have before rushing to judgment.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Nothing to see here, move along. The best city with the best team with the best fans on the best coast are going to be FINE! They’ve just been unlucky! Once that mean Mr. Babip stops bothering the pitchers and Mookie this team might never lose a game again!!!! I’m sure having the fifth lowest DRS and poor defenders littered across the field doesn’t have anything to do with it. It’s just luck, you guys!
You mad?
Littered with bad defenders?
Hanigan, Napoli, Pedroia, Sandoval, Betts, Victorino, and maybe just maybe one day, Castillo.
There’s a real defensive problem in left field for sure. But this team is not the terrible group of defenders you make it out to be.
Thanks for citing 22 games with of DRS though!
Hanley’s been a butcher, but I’m still hoping he can learn the position.
Consider how great he’s hitting, how bad he’s fielding LF, his reputation as a diva, and his last name. It’s great to have you back, Manny.
https://twitter.com/fangraphs/status/593817369807556608/photo/1
Don’t take my word for it. I’m sure the fielders have just been unlucky like the pitchers and hitters, though.
You should understand the statistics and sample sizes better before citing them.
He knows about those things, Sean. If fangraphs had posted an article after the Sox initial hot start, he would have been mouthsitting all over the thread about sample size and good luck.
Numbers he mentions will only ever be the ones that fit his bias. He doesn’t care about data or analysis. He’s here to satisfy some childlike psychological preoccupation with rooting against the Bad Guys.
FYI, Pedroia’s DRS number is terrible right now.
FYI, Pedroia’s DRS and UZR numbers were pretty bad early on last year too.
FYI, Dustin Pedroia has been the best fielding 2Bman (by eyes and the metrics) for a few seasons now.
Sample size. Sample size. SsssssAmPlE sizEEEEE. Say it with me!
if we look at the defensive data since 2013, which still admittedly includes very small samples for some:
CF Betts 433.1in, +4.5uzr/150
RF Nava 1048.2in, +9.1
LF Ramirez 165.1in, -42.1
3B Sandoval 2594.1in, -0.7
SS Bogaerts 1108.1in, -0.3
2B Pedroia 2774.0in, +14.9
1B Napoli 2210.1in, +8.6
C Hanigan 1340.0in, +2drs
looks like there’s a plus right side of the infield, probably a hole in lf, and averagish everywhere else – though RF is kind of an X factor given we don’t even know whose position that is anymore.
Did you actually mean to list Sandoval, or were you just getting excited? :p
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/pablo-sandoval-makes-tremendous-diving-catch-on-a-bunt-attempt-041700863.html
Yeah… seen that. Am i supposed to be impressed that he didn’t break his nose/face? Or that he is so slow he had to dive for what should have been an easy play? 🙂
You are such a hack, Sandy. Isn’t it about time for you “quit fangraphs forever” again?
I’m all for that, but he does at least have this much of a point: It’s odd to write an article about an entire rotation that has an ERA way above their FIP without looking at the team’s defense.
Thank Matt, always nice to meet one of the millions.
He mentioned the BABIP, which is high but not excessively so, as he said, it is the sequencing that is killing them. Batting with RISP is through the roof.
Good point, Ted.
Sandy, I can’t say I return the pleasure.
Maybe dial back that snark-to-content ratio just a tad.
Ha! You beat me to it. Sure it’s only 22 games of DRS, but no doubt we’d hear praises from the chorus if their 22 game DRS was top 5.
I haven’t and won’t look at splits because I really don’t care, but Fenway Park may be an early ERA wrecking factor.
Fact is the Sox have a great O with the potential for plus D. Their rotation is a bunch of league avg plus inning eaters. They have the resources to splurge on a top starter. They’ll be fine.
Boston’s 55 degree average game start temp in April is an ERA killer. They loosen up in Ft. Myers at 85, and then come here and tighten back up until the temps start rising.
Amazing that anyone thinks Miley is worth a shit, especially the Sox and Fangraphs. Dude had one (1) good year in the desert and he still didn’t strike out 7 per 9. If you think he’ll turn some corner of make some transition you’re deluding yourself, he’s facing better hitters with a poor defense behind him and his BABIP isn’t even inflated.
I think most people see him as a 4.00 FIP pitcher at ~200 innings a year – providing league average performance over a full season’s workload.
Nothing to get excited about but average SPs are definitely worth more than shit
If he was doing that in Arizona what makes you think he’ll replicate it or do better in Fenway?
Per statcorner, Chase Field is more of a hitter’s park than Fenway, so the premise of that question is bizarre.
Arizona’s not exactly a pitcher’s park.
We’re discussing the change in both league and park, please try to keep up.
And WAR adjusts for both league and park. Shouldn’t you try to keep up?
WAR adjust for park and league but each park has certain effects that are unique. So while it does adjust like anything its not perfect and Fenway is a very unusual place. I thought Miley would have trouble there based on the way he pitches seems like he may be having trouble with adjusting to the league. It should balance out but I think the backlash comes from the projections on steamer originally skewing toward 2.5 to 3 war. Due to faith that he could cure his HR problems and keep up the bump in Ks he had last year. But as spring had worn on the projection got worse. His projections are now closer or the same as his WAR the last 2 years. Nothing wrong with that but basically a slightly below average pitcher at 1.7 and 1.9 WAR. I expect him to do that. The reason people are finger pointing is many analysts thought Miley had a chance to turn a corner and frequently called him solid and the Red Sox had a similar notion. He’ll be fine but expecting him to be more than 2 war pitcher this season is probably unreasonable at this point.
Boston bought a rotation that is reasonably expected to give about 2 war or a little more per pitcher. Or about 10 War. Right now the ERA doesn’t match the FIP but that often happens and will probably start coming down. They aren’t playing particularly good D right now which isn’t helping.
Thats fine but what some people are grumbling is the idea that they didn’t need an ace or better pitchers not because they’d slug there way there but because their rotation had a decent chance to be above average.
They got a good shot but this is a tough league with high expectations. I think a bigger gripe is putting Ramirez in left field.
His WAR was below 2 both of the last 2 seasons, making him a below average big leaguer. But hey at least he didn’t get injured while eating those innings!
He had 3 good years in the desert (i.e., an extreme hitter’s park). He’s a league averageish starting pitcher. That’s quite valuable.
But I’ll agree with you that his stats this year are concerning. You’re supposed to have more strikeouts than walks.
I think all of the other 4 guys are overperforming expectations in terms of K%-BB%, which is probably the only stat worth looking at at this point in the season.
The most I’ll concede is 1 good year, 2 average-ish years. His best attributes are being lefty and durable. His peripherals have never been terribly impressive and now he’s putting up worse results against better competition.
Nobody really cares what you’ll “concede” when you clearly have no idea what you’re talking about.
Please try to stay on topic instead of attacking me personally for holding a different opinion than you. I’ll keep my points to the numbers, this is a statistically oriented website, if you can’t play by the rules maybe you should go back to whatever troll nest you came from.
1.7war/200ip years are not “good”.
especially when you’re facing a pitcher instead of a dh most games.
not how WAR works
er, you and the 5 guys who liked your post might want to double check that.
This is a bizarre conversation. No one has said that Wade Miley is an above-average starter. It is impossible to have an above-average player at every position. What is being argued is whether he’s valuable.
The fact that his WAR was a positive number for three seasons mean that, contrary to pudieron89’s assertion, he is “worth a shit”. He was worth 7.9 fWAR from 2012-2014, which is 34th (!) among all pitchers. His WAR is even higher if you look at actual runs-against. That 7.9 WAR is valued at $55M by fangraphs. So we could say he was actually worth 55 million shits over three seasons.
And, for the folks who keep citing the change from the NL to the AL: WAR already includes that adjustment.
You don’t need a great staff to win it all. See the 2008 Phillies for a recent example. The Cole Hamels link to both is intentional.
Correction: Starting staff. Even the Phillies has a great bullpen in 2008.
Then what about the 2006 Cardinals?
They didn’t really deserve to get into the playoffs. There ought to be an 86 win limit. Same with football ( 9 wins ).
It seems to me that Boston just has its sights set on making the playoffs. The bar to do so is lower than it has ever been – especially in the AL East, where it used to take 95+ wins – and this is a weaker offensive environment than there has been in awhile too.
Is that a good strategy? Not sure. It looks ugly as hell right now and I think their chances of going far in the playoffs if they find a way to get in are pretty shaky.
Disagree. I think they have their sights set on making the trade deadline, then acquiring Hamels/Cueto/other and pushing hard int he second half. As Dave Cameron has said, there is no reason to assume this is their rotation in October, or even in August.
Hamels and Cueto are staying in the NL.
AL East had the best record in baseball last year.
And they have it again this year.
Stop presenting facts to these “people”. They see what they want to and it’s just a case of the babips. I’m sure it will be over in no time.
That doesn’t even come close to contradicting what I said.
“Every Red Sox starter should get better results than what they have shown thus far.”
Well I would hope so! If the true talent ERA for this groups was 5.75, it would be the worst rotation in history. Obviously they are not as bad as the current numbers, but they are still pretty darn bad, and need to upgrade this group.
The fact that they’re a virtual certainty to be better than a 5.75 ERA is neither surprising nor encouraging.
Their plan has worked! league-average offense, poor defense, atrocious pitching, and 2 games above .500! suck it loosah
Yep, scoring the 2nd most runs is definitely league-average. Good job!
well, they have needed a record breaking unearned run pace to do that.
98 wRC+ is league-average, I’m really surprised I have to explain this to a commenter on Fangraphs.
From this very article:
“the .318 wOBA and 98 wRC+ are in the middle of the pack”
READ MORE POST LESS CHOWDAH HEAD
Wow Wildcard09 sounds like you couldn’t be any dumber if you tried. Hang in there, I’m sure you’ll prove to us that your stupidity truly knows no bounds.
Red sox fans downvoting my comment, I’ll wear that negative number as a badge of honor as Hanley misplays another one off the green monster.
The total of unearned runs is sample size noise. In fact, part of it is a fraud. A few Boston unearned runs scored were on an “error” by Manny Machado that is such an absurd breaking of the “ordinary effort” part of the rule that it’s an outright insult.
A hard one-hopper was hit to Machado’s right (his non-glove side). On the run, he extended his glove and managed to make leather contact, but the hard hop raced through it. Most fielders wouldn’t have even made glove contact there, and making the play was more about the ball just finding the pocket.
So, Mr. Arrogant One, maybe you should be a bit careful here, as the whole point of people saying “sample size” OVER AND OVER AGAIN is that the pure numbers don’t tell the whole truth.
I’d love to see the LD% for the Red Sox pitchers, and as a team. I know LD% is volatile, but still, it would shed some light on the BABIP concerns since a high LD% could indicate that these guys are getting squared up on instead of just getting fluky FB’s and GB’s.
It’s 19.5 %, 5th lowest in baseball.
Looking at the Red Sox starters vs the rest of the league, the only numbers that really stand out are their K% (good), BB% (bad), LOB% (terrible), and LD% (good), and IFFB% (bad). You’d expect if their defense was as bad as Sandy makes it out to be (their UZR/150 is only -2.9 as a team), that their BABIP would be more than a hair above league average. I hate to say it, but it looks like they just haven’t been any where near clutch. But why are they giving up such a hugely inflated triple slash with RISP?
Because sometimes that’s just how it goes. That’s sequencing for you. Not all singles are created equal, and accordingly, sometimes giving up a single has a much more significant impact than at other times. It won’t sustain.
Then again, there’s also a psychological aspect to sequencing. Some pitchers can’t handle the pressure of pitching with runners in scoring position as well as others.
Then there are guys like Trevor Rosenthal who is pitching exclusively out of the stretch this year out of concerns that he doesn’t have as much control pitching out of the wind-up (which would help explain his excellent Save% last year despite his disappointing BB% and WHIP). It would have to be the other way around to be relevant here, but it’s possible.
Or you nerds could try watching a game once in a while and see pitchers that lack the stuff and/or the command to pitch well in this division. The “defense” is laughable, at best. Good job getting all those sticks in the lineup, though. I’m sure they’ll figure out how to field at some point. Probably around the same time that Mean Mr. Babip loosens his noose, right?
You forgot the requisite “get out of your mom’s basement” joke.
Can’t use that one because that’s exactly what he is. He’s not anti-saber; he’s just a Rays homer more invested in shouting about the competition than rooting for his team.
Wow, there actually are Rays homers? And they’re as obnoxious as, and behave exactly like, Red Sox homers?
The sequencing thing worries me more than it usually would. Clay in particular, he had an awful lob% last year too. He just seems uncomfortable with players on the bases. In general lob% should regress to the mean, but some guys seem to buckle down and get the 3rd out when they need it and others just lose something in high impact situations.
This. Clay will definitely improve but his sequencing doesn’t look to just be random luck. He has been prone to big innings where he doubles down on bad pitches. That is something that is being captured in lob% (though obviously not to the extreme extent it’s at currently) and I’d expect him to carry a sub par lob% going forward until he has some psychological awakening.
Their ERA-FIP ratios will improve, but the FIP’s may well get worse.
Who is Porcello? He came advertised as a ground ball pitcher, but he’s pitched like a power pitcher who’s a little under powered. Wednesday he raised his game by dotting both edges, and threw a plus curveball and useful slider, but I saw maybe one handful of actual sinkers. He threw a couple of them to end an inning and Hanigan was back slapping him on the way off.
I’ve always assumed that the plan was to trade the logjam in the outfield plus prospects toward two #3’s or one #2 by July, but Victorino and Craig clearly aren’t worth anything. Pete Abraham reports that Cherington is literally pacing in Farrell’s office.
Nope, actually, when you play for the best team in the best, most tolerant city things only improve. A staff of groundball getters will continue to get strikeouts and I’d be surprised if they walk another guy all year. That Mean Mr. Babip needs to be dealt with and then all three phases will be just fine.
Honestly, this is what happens when you have the worst manager in the division guiding a team of over-paid guys who’s best years are behind them. It’s going to be fantastic to watch the shit hit the fan. I smile so hard in anticipation for when the big sell off comes.
I can only assume by “this is what happens” you mean: they over-perform their run differential and remain a game out of the division lead.
we all agree that the fippy numbers work better in small samples than era…..BUT this doesn’t mean we don’t have to be very careful with small sample fippies, too.
IMO it’s irresponsible to talk about small sample fippies without discussing the sustainability of its component parts.
to be specific to the three red sox SP with great fippies this year, we have to take a very close look at the key driver of their fippies….and that is STRIKEOUTS.
Buchholz has an 11.9k/9. His career number is 7.0. last year was 7.0. career best was 8.5 in half a season as a rookie in 2008.
Kelly is at 10.7k/9. career 6.4. last year 6.2. career best 6.3.
Porcello is at 8.2k/9. career 5.6. last year 5.7. career best 7.2.
If you’re going to look for outliers in their pitching performances this year, these have to be included. These are not sustainable numbers for these guys, which mean neither are their fippies.
Yeah, what’s up with all them strikeouts anyway?
All things being equal, the difference may be Hanigan.
That’s funny, as you are now ignoring that K-rate tends to stabilize pretty early in a season.
Before you cite career stats as gospel, you might want to look into the new pitches guys like Buchholz and Kelly have added to their repertoire. That’s right, new pitches! Stat outliers aren’t flukes if they come with explanations (right, Dustin Pedroia declining SLG% that was clearly due to injury and not aging?).
I can’t speak so much for Porcello though, outside perhaps that he’s still very young and has evolved annually. Perhaps Hanigan has something to do with it?
Gotta hand it to Fangraphs, they sure do follow their convictions.
Well, when your conviction is to follow a process and to develop an analysis and then follow the results no matter what they are, I should hope you stick with it.
The average person, who frankly is not all that analytically impressive, prefers to settle on a hypothesis and then choose an “analysis” with the conscious or subconscious determination to prove the preconceived point.
Had the data shown complete disaster for the Boston rotation so far, I’m sure the author would have said “sorry Boston fans, but the pitching isn’t getting better any time soon”. The pitching should be serviceable, and it likely will be going forward.
Is condescension something Red Sox fans learn? Or is it just a gift?
everdiso’s superfun messy ugly small sample war hacks:
Preason projected war/600 vs April war/600:
Panda 3.4 —– 4.8 (+1.4)
Pedroia 4.1 — 4.2 (+0.1)
Bogaerts 2.4 — 2.3 (-0.1)
Hanigan 3.1 — 2.8 (-0.3)
Betts 3.4 —– 2.4 (-1.0)
Hanley 3.8 —- 2.0 (-1.8)
Ortiz 2.6 —– 0.7 (-1.9)
Victorino 2.5 – -1.4 (-3.9)
Napoli 2.9 —- -3.1 (-6.0)
Starting Lineup: -13.5
Preason projected war/200 vs April war/200:
Holt 0.4 —– 3.1 (+2.7)
Leon 0.5 —– 0.0 (-0.5)
Nava 0.6 —– -1.8 (-2.4)
Craig 0.4 —- -2.2 (-2.6)
Bench: -2.8
Preason projected war/200 vs April war/200:
Buchholz 1.7 — 4.8 (+3.1)
Kelly 0.8 ——- 3.4 (+2.6)
Masterson 1.3 — 2.7 (+1.4)
Miley 1.7 —— 0.0 (-1.7)
Porcello 2.5 — 0.0 (-2.5)
Starting Pitchers: +2.9
Preason projected war/65 vs April war/65:
Uehara 1.5 — 4.1 (+2.6)
Tazawa 0.7 — 0.6 (-0.1)
Mujica 0.0 — -2.0 (-2.0)
Ross 0.0 —– -1.4 (-1.4)
Varvaro -0.1 – 0.6 (+0.7)
Ogando -0.1 — 0.7 (+0.8)
Breslow -0.5 – 0.0 (+0.5)
Extras -0.1 — -1.5 (-1.4)
Bullpen: -0.3
#PlanHasWorked
What an elegant way of demonstrating how to misuse small sample sizes, and draw wildly inaccurate conclusions. Great job!
Mike Napoli negative 6 WAR. Take that one to the bank, folks.
ah I missed you my friend. Don’t stay away for so long next time. I’m sure things will get better for your Sox.
p.s. it doesn’t say Nap’s on track for -6war this year, but on track for 6war less than projected for.
The Redsox have actually been extremely lucky so far. They are only a game out, despite having a negative run differential. The Yankees, on the other hand, have scored 25 more runs than they have conceded, and still only find themselves a game up and four games over .500. So it goes, sometimes.
Yeah but they’ve scored a lot of runs so clearly they have a great offense and are primed for another fall classic. Just a matter of time before the rotation comes around and has synergistic effect on the bullpen and defense.
Confirmation bias trolling is, maybe not the BEST form of trolling, but it’s up there. Your troll game is STRONG my friend.
Actually, when your offense is performing well most nights and your pitching has a few good nights, some solid nights, and a number of WRETCHED nights, your run differential is going to be worse than it should be. Standard deviation matters, but this early on it’s all filled with fluke occurrence noise.
Actually, according to base runs, the Redsox have performed like a team that should be 10-12, while the Yankees have performed like a team that should be 14-8. Thus the Yankees have played four wins better than the Redsox, yet the Redsox have been lucky enough to find themselves only a game down in the standings.
That’s what happens when you play in the most uniformly mediocre division in baseball with an unbalanced schedule.
I love fangraphs and all, but man, these comments are literally just a steaming pile of shitposts.
Applies to most of the articles concerning Boston.
Be fair, some of the shitty articles on this website about the best city are actually insightful. This one wasn’t bad it just gets us primed for when mean old Mr. Babip gets his claws out of these innocent little lambs and they can start to focus on playing baseball.
Hey dooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooork.
These trolls come out for literally every article written about the Red Sox or their players. It’s actually quite sad.
I hate it when people don’t agree with me, too.
Yeah despite being unlucky in sequencing in pitching I think they are getting a little lucky in other ways such as runs scored sequencing. So in a way its more than evening out. According to BASERUNS they should be 10 and 12. http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=BaseRuns
So even with better sequencing on pitching they may not have the same sequencing on offense. THey will get better as projected but they need to start meeting those projections soon because this is a tight race a run of bad luck can hurt their chances.
Also not trying to defend the haters but some people are pointing out that there have been bad performances currently that are dragging down the contributions of Panda and Ramirez. They are at -0.7 OFF and -4.2 as a team and ranked 17th in WAR so despite their record they have been off to a disappointing performance. Victorino, Napoli, Ortiz, Betts have been dissappointing at the plate. Betts is doing awesome defensively but can’t help but wonder that he had his hands full learning CF. I think he will be fine but its going to take time.
its bizarre that pointing out that the red sox’ stats are bad on a stats website makes one a “hater”, while an article written on the stats website to specifically gloss over the poor stats is praised.
Yes, totally agreed. If we could just get some articles that post stats that are poor and then have some body copy that reads: these are some poor stats! That would be an improvement.
i don’t even know what that means.
there are plenty of worrying numbers to discuss for this red sox team. its strange to read an article claiming that everything is hunkydory and going according to plan.
an article written on the stats website to specifically gloss over the poor stats
This is just a lie. You made it up. The article is about looking at multiple stats rather than just one. It is the opposite of glossing over stats.
The problem for you is that you are only interested in the numbers that support your preconception. So if any attention is paid to numbers that challenge it, you shout about bias. The irony there never has and never will occur to you.
strange thing to say.
Red Sox rank 9th AL with 3.8war total. Last in their division.
They are 11th in pitching war. 7th in hitter war, but 9th in both wrc+ and defense and above average only in baserunning.
Yet this article states that everything is going as planned for the team projected to be one of the best in baseball.
It’s amazing to see the inversely proportional relationship between intelligence and troll-bias at work here.
Someone writes a reasonable article with sound analysis that reaches the obvious (to any trained baseball eye who has watched enough of the games) conclusion that the Boston pitching, while still not so great, has been much better than its wretched runs allowed results so far…and you get all kinds of flawed analysis and statistical hocus pocus and red herrings and so on “ripping” it apart.
If you can here (i.e. the comments) because you hate Boston and you couldn’t wait to spew some idiocy, just know that you are a lower level of person who helps make the world a worse place. Your revelry in intentional distortion showcases one of humanity’s more ugly traits.
It’s amazing that you can accuse people you don’t agree with of trolling and then use high-falutin’ prose to refer to internet comments as “one of humanity’s more ugly traits.” I mean, WOW, dude.
This is a baseball statistics website. There are multiple conclusions to be drawn from the stats. There are multiple different fanbases whose biases skew their interpretation. Lets stick to a discussion of baseball instead of these personal attacks. If you get offended because people said mean things about your baseball team, you need to take a break from the internet for a bit.
Porcello and Miley are probably better than their numbers show, but they won’t be as good in the tougher hitting division . Kelly is about what he has been. Masterson is cooked. Buchholz is wildly inconsistent and I doubt he is healthy due to that injury he suffered in 2013.
Its a bad rotation. No ace in that motley crew at all. The bullpen is not great either and all the work will make them worse down the road . They are 1 team offensive slump away from a significant losing streak. Interestingly though, their offense has not actually hit to their potential with slow starts by Napoli, Pedroia, Ortiz, Pablo and Betts and with Victorino/Castillo injured. Hanley has carried them a bit. Also, the weak pitching in the AL East has helped them offset the slumps.
So are you have second thoughts about that Lackey trade in Boston? It’s not you’re getting much from Allen Craig, either.
Some confirmation bias cherry picking here by the author, also known as twisting up the numbers. The Red Sox may have scored more runs than the Orioles (one more actually), but the Orioles have played two fewer games. The Orioles score 5.6 runs a game, the Sox 5.1. That’s a bit of a difference. That also puts their offense behind two divisional rivals. It’s a bit early to read much into those numbers, but I could see the Sox falling further behind quite easily. Neither Toronto or B’more is short in offensive capability.
It’s fair at this point to suspect the plan is not working. It is also ridiculous to say it is working based on what we’ve seen thus far. It would be equally ridiculous to say it isn’t working yet, either, but the early returns are not especially promising. It may yet, but the Red Sox certainly don’t have a #1 starter, nor do they appear to have a #2 starter, for that matter.