The Royals Try a New Free Agency Plan

Last year, the Padres had a clear approach to the offseason. They came in badly needing innings, but with a decorated and devastating lineup – particularly after they signed Xander Bogaerts to add to their shortstop treasure trove. They did have a few holes, though, so they shopped in volume for complementary bats and mid-rotation arms. Their two preferred pitching targets: Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Clearly, the Royals were taking notes.

That’s right: After signing Lugo earlier this month, the Royals turned around and inked Wacha to a two-year, $32 million pact last week. They also addressed some of their outfield deficiency by signing Hunter Renfroe to a two-year, $13 million deal of his own. Both contracts feature player opt-outs for the second year. By sheer number of major league deals signed this offseason, the Royals are now lapping the field.

That sounds kind of weird – why would the Royals, who finished with 106 losses in 2023, replicate a pitching depth strategy that seems designed to raise the floor for a contender with durability issues? Well conveniently enough for us, FanGraphs published the answer to this question last Friday in an interview with GM J.J. Picollo:

“We didn’t have a fallback as far as having more veteran players around our young guys. So it fell on all of our young guys, and that made it difficult for them. Looking at how we can improve next year, having guys with experience around them will help the infrastructure of the team. That’s what I think we miss right now.”

That’s pretty clear. The Royals aren’t necessarily looking to win the AL Central this year, but they are looking for more of a veteran core around their young options. “More” implies that simply replacing Zack Greinke wouldn’t be enough; naturally, that means at least two veteran pitchers. And if you’re looking for veteran leadership and respectable production, Wacha is just what the doctor ordered.

That would have been a contentious statement a year ago, because Wacha’s last few years had been all over the place. From 2019 through 2021, he was borderline unplayable, with his ERA and FIP both higher than 5.00. His 2022 was far stronger – a 3.32 ERA (4.14 FIP) across 23 starts in Boston. But which was real? No one was quite sure, which is why he signed a unique contract with the Padres that gave him a chance to hit free agency again this year if he was good – but not so good that they exercised their two-year, $32 million option.

As you can infer from the fact that he just signed that exact contract with the Royals, and with an opt-out before the second year to boot, he was that good. Across 24 starts, he replicated his form from the year before: a 3.22 ERA, a 3.89 FIP, and even an uptick in swinging strike rate that makes his success feel a bit more sustainable. Projection systems still aren’t sold – Steamer projects Wacha for a 4.56 ERA in 2024 – but even aided by some anomalously low BABIPs, Wacha’s last two seasons are nothing to sneeze at. He’s a top 60 starter even by FIP, and a top 30 one by runs allowed.

The way Wacha gets to his value is delightfully static. He came into the majors in 2013 with a devastating changuep and just enough other stuff to keep hitters honest (at the time, a powerful fastball was his weapon of choice). In 2023, he threw more changeups than anything else, then kept hitters off-balance with a blend of fastballs, cutters, sinkers, and curveballs. He’s never going to be a strikeout monster, but he’s truly impressive at making hitters take swings they wish they could have back.

That plan is going to fit Kauffman Stadium like a glove. Kansas City’s ballpark features a cavernous outfield, and Wacha’s pitches induce a metric ton of fly balls. His changeup is more of a fading type than a dipping type, so hitters swing under it frequently. His primary fastball is a four-seamer. His cutter rides in on hitters and induces weak contact at its best. It played like a charm in San Diego, which might be an even better park for fly ball pitchers thanks to its thick marine layer. Why wouldn’t it work just as well in KC?

One possible reason: What if the outfielders fielding Wacha’s fly balls have two left feet? The Royals employed two of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball last year in MJ Melendez and Edward Olivares. Those are hardly the guys you want running down a stream of fly balls. The Royals needed to fill up outfield roles anyway. Enter Renfroe, their other big signing last week.

Renfroe is a cut below Wacha when it comes to free agent pedigree. Wacha made the top 25 of my Top 50 Free Agent list; Renfroe didn’t come particularly close to making the cut. He bounced around the majors last year thanks to the Angels’ cost-cutting spree, but he wasn’t much of an impact player there anyway. He did even worse after the Reds claimed him, and they ended up designating him for assignment as well.

Bad as that sounds, I still think Renfroe is a perfectly serviceable hitter. The Angels didn’t jettison him because he couldn’t hit; they did it specifically to duck under the first Competitive Balance Tax threshold after they fell out of contention. His tenure on the Reds was abysmal, but it was 44 plate appearances of part-time work, hardly enough to judge someone on. Everyone’s allowed an off year, and Renfroe looked excellent in his 2022 stint in Milwaukee.

I’m not going to go too far in praising him; we’re still talking about a hitter who is at his best as the weak side of a platoon. Renfroe has bludgeoned lefties throughout his tenure in the majors, while merely treading water against righties. He’s also not an elite defender; he’s fairly slow afoot, though he partially makes up for it with one of the best throwing arms in the game. When I said that the team needed outfielders to improve their defense, Renfroe isn’t the guy I immediately pictured.

That said, they really needed outfielders. I would have preferred to sign someone who fits a bit better with their ballpark, but the Royals are trying to make Kyle Isbel their everyday center fielder, a plan I wholeheartedly agree with. That means that the various center fielders on the market don’t make sense, and most of the rest of the interesting outfield defenders are more expensive than the price range the Royals were shopping in.

A lot of teams might have just used minor leaguers and depth to fill up Renfroe’s spot, and to be honest, I’m surprised the Royals didn’t go that route or hand the job to a non-roster spring training invitee. His contract isn’t huge in modern baseball terms, but the Royals generally run a tight budget, and giving 5% of your payroll to an outfielder who might not be that much better than the guys on your Triple-A squad is a good way to both hinder development and spend some scarce resources you can’t quite afford.

If the Royals were closer to a playoff spot, or if they were blocking a talented minor league outfielder with Renfroe’s acquisition, I’d hate this deal for them. But neither of those things is true, and if they’re ever so slightly inefficient with their salary this year, it’s hardly a big deal. Veteran leadership, meanwhile, actually makes sense to me here. Renfroe has played for some extremely well-run organizations, but he’s also played for some poorly run ones. He’s had lockers next to superstars and also struggled to stay on the team. To the extent that the Royals want that kind of player, he’s a great choice. Just don’t expect him to be the best hitter on the team, and you won’t be disappointed.

These signings won’t be the most notable in the AL Central this winter. They probably won’t propel the Royals to an unexpected run. But they’ll do a lot to make the team more respectable, and to give Kansas City’s young pitchers help in the rotation. I don’t know what else the Royals were going to do with their money this offseason; given that, I like the idea of these signings even if they feel like a lot of deck chair shuffling given the team’s overall lack of top-end talent.