The Spring Training Stolen Base Proclamation: A Brief History

Nothing in this life is certain but death, taxes, and major league baseball players reporting to Spring Training in the best shape of their life, as the old saying goes. That’s how the old saying goes, right? Well, the old saying needs an update. Sorry, Gramps. This ain’t your father’s Spring Training. May I propose: Nothing in this life is certain but death, taxes, and major league baseball players reporting to Spring Training in the best shape of their life and then vowing to use that newfound fitness to become more aggressive on the basepaths in the following year and steal more bases than ever?

A touch lengthy, but consider it proposed.

Every year, players show up to Spring Training and claim that they, as professional athletes who are older now than they’ve ever been before, are suddenly in the best shape of their life. Pro-tip: they aren’t. Turns out, they just as often claim they’re going to steal more bases that year. What’s the pro-tip on that one? We’ll just have to find out.

* * *

2013

Mike Trout

• Claim: “I just go and play my game. But if I get a chance to steal, I’m going to go. I’m going to be more aggressive than last year … Last year there were some chances where I could have gone. This year I’m going to take more chances.”
• Career: 53-58 (91%)
  
• Prior year: 49-54 (91%)
  
• Ensuing year: 33-40 (83%)
  

Trout was his league’s most prolific basestealer in 2012, but it wasn’t enough. The next year, he was going to take more chances. Except he didn’t. He took 14 fewer chances, and did a worse job of taking those chances. Maybe it was because his “main goal” was to “score some runs this year.” He did lead the league in runs.

Ruben Tejada

• Claim: “I want to steal more bases this spring training and during the season so I can help my team score more runs.”
• Career: 11-18 (61%)
  
• Prior year: 4-8 (50%)
  
• Ensuing year: 2-3 (67%)
  

Tejada reportedly worked with his mentor, then-Mets shortstop Jose Reyes, and together they worked on “everything — speed, offense, defense.” Manager Terry Collins, though, expressed that the most important thing, if Tejada wanted to be the leadoff hitter, was to get on base. Tejada’s OBP plummeted from .330 to .259. He attempted just three steals all year.

Denard Span

• Claim: “It’s something I’ve been working on more than anybody probably knows … I plan on stealing 40 this year. That’s my plan.”
• Career: 90-118 (76%)
  
• Prior year: 17-23 (74%)
  
• Ensuing year: 20-26 (77%)
  

Span’s plan was seemingly at odds with his manager, Davey Johnson’s. When asked about Span’s proclamation, Johnson responded “There [are] pretty good power bats all the way through [the lineup]. I don’t mind him being on second… as long as he’s 40 for 40.” Span was not 40-for-40. Span did not steal 40. Span stole 20. This is why you never set goals, kids.

The Cleveland Indians

• Claim: “We want to push, we want to make teams stop us on the bases,” manager Terry Francona said. “It’s something we’ve talked about consistently this spring.”
• Prior year: 110-154 (71%)
  
• Ensuing year: 117-153 (76%)
  

During Francona’s inaugural season at the helm, the Indians pushed and talked up aggression during Spring Training, and then attempted one fewer steal during the regular season compared to the prior year.

2014

Jackie Bradley Jr.

• Claim: “[Stealing bases] definitely could be incorporated into my game a lot more. It all starts with just going. It has nothing to do with not being able to do it. It’s just, you have the confidence and taking the necessary jumps and making sure you can execute it.”
• Career: 2-2 (100%)
  
• Prior year: 2-2 (100%)
  
• Ensuing year: 8-8 (100%)
  

Bradley did multiply his amount of attempted steals by four, but he also multiplied his amount of playing time by four. No real change here.

Carl Crawford

• Claim: “I got my triples, went from first to third, why am I not stealing more? It’s all mental and I just have to get over the hump … I can tell a difference in the way I feel … I’ll try something different and get that doubt out of my head.”
• Career: 447-547 (82%)
  
• Prior year: 15-19 (79%)
  
• Ensuing year: 23-29 (79%)
  

Crawford took a more existential route rather than just coming out and declaring he’d steal more, but the point was implied. And, by golly, Crawford stuck to his word! In 11 fewer games, Crawford attempted 10 more steals and didn’t give up any efficiency. Maybe this is proof that an empty Spring Training statement just isn’t enough. It takes an identity crisis.

The Oakland Athletics

• Claims: “This is a team that could steal a lot of bases, I mean a lot of them,” first base coach Tye Waller said. “I look around, and I think that the stolen base could be one of our biggest weapons,” outfielder Josh Reddick said. “I know I can steal bases. I don’t have elite speed, but I can run,” first baseman Brandon Moss said.
• Prior year: 74-102 (73%)
  
• Ensuing year: 83-103 (81%)
  

The A’s were all-in on base stealing during Spring Training 2014. So much so, that they attempted one whole entire extra stolen base the following year. Brandon Moss, once fully realizing that he is, in fact, physically capable of running, stole one base on one attempt. His lofty stolen base goal, as set by Waller, who reiterated that Moss “can run”, was “perhaps 10.”

2015

Mike Trout

• Claim: “Definitely I’m trying to run more … Just take more chances.”
• Career: 102-116 (88%)
  
• Prior year: 16-18 (89%)
  
• Ensuing year: 11-18 (61%)
  

After taking a year off from declaring in Spring Training that he’d steal more bases, Trout got back at it in 2015 and mentioned that, although he hadn’t yet run the plan by manager Mike Scioscia and bench coach Dino Abel, he was “sure they’d be on board with it.” Scioscia stated that, “When you’re trying to beat a 3.05(-second) combo between the pitcher and catcher, and you’re running a 3.15 or 3.2, which Mike is capable of, the time’s not on your side.” Trout attempted zero extra steals, relative to the prior year, and was caught seven extra times.

Ben Revere

• Claim: “I definitely want to get over the 50-mark. [Third base coach Juan Samuel] had 70-something the one year. It’s definitely my main goal to catch up to him.”
• Career: 145-180 (81%)
  
• Prior year: 49-57 (86%)
  
• Ensuing year: 31-38 (82%)
  

Revere did technically match Samuel, it’s just that he matched Samuel’s age-30 season in 1991, seven years after he stole 72 bases.

The St. Louis Cardinals

• Claims: “We’re going to continue to be aggressive with it, even though it may not appear (so) by the statistics,” manager Mike Matheny said. “We want all these guys looking for that opportunity to run, and we’re not holding them back a lot of times.” … “I have no track record for stolen bases, so I could catch the league by surprise,” third baseman Matt Carpenter said.
• Prior year: 57-89 (64%)
  
• Ensuing year: 69-107 (64%)
  

The Cardinals attempted more steals, alright. It’s just, they shouldn’t have. Carpenter, opting to play the long-con, attempted one fewer steal from the previous year, and was thrown out the same number of times.

The Chicago White Sox

• Claims: “Now that we’ve cleaned up the era — the steroids era is gone — we’ve got to manufacture some runs in some type of way,” baserunning coach Vince Coleman said. “I did that throughout my career, and I think I can share some knowledge and shed some light on how we can get that done.” … “You know me, I’m always thrilled and ready to play tomorrow, but he really got me in the mood,” outfielder Adam Eaton said. “I want to steal bags. Get some pitchers out here. I want to do it now. I’m very, very, very thrilled to be able to work with him.”
• Prior year: 85-121 (70%)
  
• Ensuing year: 68-110 (62%)
  

The White Sox attempted 11 fewer steals, and were thrown out six extra times. Eaton attempted two extra steals from the year prior, but also played in 30 extra games.

* * *

Our subjects talked a big game. How did they collectively fare? The year before making the proclamation, our speedsters went 478-647, for a stolen base success rate of 74%. In the year immediately following the proclamation, attempts and efficiency both decreased, as the group went 465-635 (73%). In other words, the “I’m going to steal more bases” pro-tip is the same as the “I’m in the best shape of my life” pro-tip: no, you’re not.

But who knows, maybe the trend can be bucked! This Spring Training has already ushered in a record-high number of candidates, after all:

• Mike Trout, three-time member: “[Stealing more bases is] definitely one of the personal goals I want to get back to.”
• Brett Gardner: “I’m working on being more consistent, trying to get better [at stealing bases].”
• Dustin Pedroia: “I’m going to run more.”
• Xander Bogaerts: “If I would have goals, I would only say base stealing. I like to steal bases.”
• Avisail Garcia?: “I will try to steal more bases and just find ways to help this team.”
• The Los Angeles Dodgers: “If you look at the numbers and how this team ran the bases last year, we can do better. It’s a point of emphasis for sure,” manager Dave Roberts said. “It’s more of a mindset than a style of play. That’s how you play the game of baseball.”
• The Seattle Mariners: “”Guys who can run, we want them to run,” manager Scott Servais said. “We’ve got to find out what they can do.”

Thanks to FanGraphs commenter Nelson for the topic idea