The Stars Align for the Mariners in 2026

The Mariners are favorites in the American League on the back of an all-time duo.

Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez are the best teammates in the AL. They’re each projected to be among the top 10 batters by FanGraphs Depth Charts, and each led their respective positions in our annual positional power rankings series. The only pair of teammates projected for more WAR in 2026 are Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts and Ohtani and Kyle Tucker.

Since their first season together in 2022, Raleigh and Rodríguez have combined for 44.2 WAR. At 11.1 wins per season, that’s “on pace” for the best duo in team history, just ahead of Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez (65.9 WAR over six years), Griffey and Edgar Martinez (119.3 WAR over 11 years), and all sorts of other combinations from the star-studded squads of the 90s. Raleigh and Rodríguez certainly have much more to achieve before approaching these all-time greats, individually or together. But as the Mariners enter their 50th season, it appears the legacy of the franchise may finally be moving beyond its past.

Going For Good

The Mariners are coming off their most successful season in a quarter-century. They won 90 games. They won the AL West. They secured a bye in the first round of the playoffs. They made it further than they’d ever been before, even though they fell just short of their first AL pennant.

But the Mariners in 2025 weren’t that different.

The difference was the rest of the division finally met them at their level. The Astros, in the death throes of dynasty, were the most-injured team in baseball, while the Rangers underperformed their pythag record by nine wins. The Mariners instead went on a remarkable 17-1 run down the stretch, erasing several months of the familiar up-and-down agony that has otherwise characterized the era.

In many ways, last season served as a proof of concept for their team-building model, rather than a marked step forward. The Mariners, somewhat notoriously, have prioritized building good-not-great rosters, just enough to be competitive while still getting to hoard prospects and cash. By not committing to any one season, they spread their risk over a longer competitive window, allowing them to capitalize on targeted, timely investments. It’s a fine strategy for maintaining perpetual relevance, even if the slow-and-steady approach has occasionally infuriated a fan base desperate for them to get to the point.

If there was ever any doubt, Executive of the Year Jerry Dipoto recommitted to this strategy early in the offseason, in an interview with The Seattle Times.

And while we’ll continue to evolve our model, mold our model in certain places… I don’t think we’re going to bust it and start over again. We like the model. And right now we’re starting to see some tangible results of what that looks like. We still have goals that we want to achieve that we haven’t achieved yet. So plenty to do, but I think the infrastructure is the way we want it, and we’ll keep relying on the things that we do.

That model seems to be working. The Mariners’ gradual, years-long accumulation of value at the margins has finally boiled over to some space beyond “good.” They enter 2026 projected for the fifth most WAR by our Depth Charts. While they’re still a few decimals behind the Blue Jays and Yankees for the distinction of best team in the AL, because they’re not in the East, we project them for the most wins in the league and the best odds to win the pennant. We can see this mirrored in their slow ascent to favorites in the AL West.

It’s the latest deals that have pushed them over the top. The Mariners began the offseason by re-signing Josh Naylor, after initially acquiring him at the trade deadline last year. The org has generally preferred the trade block to free agency, with the belief that 1) it’s easier to sign batters to team-friendly deals once they develop a relationship with the organization, and 2) it’s wiser to invest in a batter once there’s some data on his performance at T-Mobile Park. Naylor has ingratiated himself to Mariners fans with his style of play, his thoughtful interviews, and his infinite collection of Seattle sports jerseys. And, so far, he is the best Mariners hitter in the history of the park, with a 188 wRC+ in 100 plate appearances — his 1.8 WAR last year was the most the Mariners have ever acquired in a midseason move. As such, they chose to bring him back for five more years, the first sign this strategy is more than just wishful thinking.

Then there’s Brendan Donovan, acquired via trade just before spring training, in a move spurred by FanGraphs (and Mariners blogosphere) alumni Dave Cameron and Jeff Sullivan. The deal was announced the same day we released our playoff odds, which had already showed the Mariners as favorites in the AL. With the addition of Donovan, they boosted their preseason projected WAR to its highest-ever mark without fundamentally improving their standing. It was the first truly inefficient move of Dipoto’s tenure, and the first sign that they aspire to something more than “good.”

These aren’t the only marginal value deals the Mariners have made in recent years. Some are still around, like Luis Castillo, Randy Arozarena, and Dominic Canzone. Some have yet to debut, like Jose Ferrer. Some have finished their service, like Eugenio Suárez and Jorge Polanco. And many have disappointed to various degrees, like Teoscar Hernández, Jesse Winker, Abraham Toro, and Kolten Wong. But each was acquired in a trade where the Mariners did not part with any load-bearing future value. They’ve now hit on just enough of these deals to boast both a deep major league roster and one of the best prospect pools in the league. There’s a reason people are excited, for 2026 and beyond.

But a dynasty is not built at the margins. Sustained greatness requires an elite player — perhaps even two.

Cal Raleigh, Superstar

A year ago today, nobody knew Cal Raleigh. Well, Mariners fans knew him, FanGraphs readers knew him, but most of the general public did not.

Then he hit a lot of home runs. He hit long home runs, short home runs, clutch home runs, and home runs just for fun; he hit home runs from both sides of the plate, and sometimes even in the same game. He hit so many home runs he got endorsement deals and Funko Pops and weekly profiles in outlets like The Wall Street Journal and GQ. He hit so many home runs we now accost him in his workout clothes and demand he answer for our politics. From nowhere to everywhere, a meme to a talking point: The American dream, no doubt. God we love home runs.

There isn’t much left to say about Raleigh. Will he hit 60 home runs again this year? Probably not. Will he still be a great player? It’s hard to see why he can’t. From both sides of the plate, he hits the ball hard, in the air, and to the pull side. And behind the plate, he’s a good framer who can shut down an opponent’s run game. He’s simply one of the best catchers ever through age 28.

What strikes me about this moment is just how central Raleigh has become in the organization. He is not only the face of the Mariners, but often the brains and the brawn, too. Raleigh, as Meg Rowley has said, is a self-effacing control freak — the only description more fitting might be Big Dumper. He’s shy, humble, and still very comfortable telling everybody what he thinks. He does not flinch. The Mariners and their fans accept this because he’s often right. Yes, the front office does need to get more good players. No, Logan Gilbert should not throw a sinker.

Raleigh is a man of action, not only demanding excellence but establishing it. He is the standard at every level of the organization, doing the thankless work that needs to be done to make the org competitive, as a player, coach, scout, rep, and mascot. He does it well and graciously. Maybe he’s the type who cares so much that he won’t shake your hand, out of some misplaced sense of duty. But such is the burden of leadership: Even Cal Raleigh can’t do right by everybody.

Gen J

Julio.

The power. The speed. The smile. The character. Where Raleigh is the audit, Rodríguez is the heart, the electricity, the fun. He has a section. He has a catchphrase and a gesture. And he has a not-so-distant shot at being the best player of his generation.

Despite the infectious personality, and despite being tied with Barry Bonds for the 46th-most WAR for a player through his age-24 season, the discourse around Rodríguez has often been toxic. The Mariners and their media are notorious for heaping praise onto prospects, raising expectations to levels even generation-defining players cannot reach.

Of course, the handwringing tends to be seasonal. His career wRC+ in the first half is 114; in the second half it’s 154. This was the case again last year, except also it wasn’t. Yes, Rodríguez posted a mere 110 wRC+ in the first half of 2025, but that was split between an 80 wRC+ at home and a 135 wRC+ away. In the second half, he posted a 129 wRC+ at home and a 176 wRC+ away. What does this mean? I don’t know. T-Mobile Park is an extreme environment for many reasons, and games in the early season can be miserably cold. But as Kiri Oler pointed out last year, the stadium is actually most suppressive in the late summer. So yes, he’s been worse early in the season, but there isn’t an obvious culprit, nor evidence that this is a trend. I think it’s simply “nonsense,” as Davy Andrews wrote last month.

That’s how a lot of analysis of Rodríguez is going to read. His approach at the plate is not easy to sum up. Sometimes he’s disciplined. Sometimes he’s aggressive. Sometimes he attacks the inside fastball. Sometimes he sits on the hanging slider. Sometimes he tries to pull the ball in the air. Sometimes he tries to inside-out lasers down the right field line. He’s powerful and athletic and always looking for the exact right mix. His 129 wRC+ is tied with Bobby Witt Jr. for 25th in the majors since 2022. Whatever he’s doing and whenever he’s doing it, Rodríguez is ultimately a productive hitter over the course of a season (yes, even in high leverage).

But even when his bat does slump, Rodríguez is still tremendously valuable. Excellent defense at a premium position made him a worthy All-Star in 2025. His 32 FRV is fifth among center fielders since his debut, with excellent range and a strong arm. His approach to tracking fly balls is firmly in the “slow jump, great route category,” which is generally the lesser trade-off. But he finds his top gear quickly and is more than capable of covering every bit of his position. I love those plays where a batter laces a liner toward the gap, the camera flips and its Julio, a flash of magenta, barreling toward the wall, not quite graceful like Franklin Gutierrez, but ferocious, tenacious, reaching his target with a spectacular pounce and roar. It’s a threat: Do not fly here.

That’s what’s so exciting about Rodríguez. He has all these tremendous tools, and at just 25, he should have them for a few more years. Raleigh, for instance, was just entering his first full season at age 25. Rodríguez already has 21.2 WAR. He has yet to play his best.

Final Pitch

While the standard “hedging against disaster” always applies, it’s hard to imagine a time when the Mariners won’t enter a season with strong playoff odds. What could sink them, now or later?

The biggest question mark for the Mariners, in a cruel twist, is their pitching. Seattle is often referred to as one of the best pitching organizations in the league. And not without reason. The Mariners have a deep rotation of mostly home grown starting pitchers, and they have a fearsome high-leverage bullpen filled with trade fodder they seemed to “fix.” They clearly know something.

But since 2022, the Mariners are 12th in pitcher WAR, while eighth in batter WAR (and sixth in wRC+). Their frontline rotation has dealt with injuries and inconsistencies, unable to find that elusive next level. Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryce Miller each missed significant time on the injured list in 2025, and Bryan Woo couldn’t quite escape with a fully healthy season. Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans combined for 31 starts with -0.1 WAR, underscoring the lack of depth beyond the top five. The flashes of greatness were still there, but their season overall was marked by frustrating levels of inefficiency. Dan Wilson was often forced to go to his bullpen early, and the Mariners punted far too many games in the fifth and sixth innings.

I don’t know that they fully addressed this over the offseason. Ferrer is a great addition to the bullpen, and there’s a few new members of the pile. But a team with a less restrictive model, or less belief in themselves, would surely have picked up one of the many starting pitchers who signed one-year deals. The Mariners, like so many teams, are playing at the edge of a cliff with their pitching.

We’re also nearing a crossroads for this group, which has mostly been together since 2022. The Mariners will have to decide whether to extend Gilbert and Kirby, who have yet to put it all together despite massive talent. They’ll have to replace Castillo, who’s been their rock. They’ll have to figure out what the heck is in Miller’s arm, and what they have in Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson.

Raleigh and Rodríguez shift these questions to the background. They are good enough to carry this team through tough stretches and set a tremendously high ceiling for the now fully competent roster that surrounds them. They are the present and the future, the why and the how. They are the next great duo in a franchise once known for them. They are the reason the Mariners — no, for real this time — are favorites in the American League.