The offseason is over and real baseball has started. The main course has finally arrived after the hors d’oeuvres of the Mariners/Athletics opening series in Japan. The teams are set — pace, Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel — and my last bit of ZiPS business is to put on record the final projected standings for the 2019 season. These are computer-generated projections, remember, and as a result, they certainly do not reflect which teams I hate and which teams I like. If they did, I clearly would not be considered very effective at applying my personal biases, having grown up in Baltimore, booing the Yankees.
Also note that there’s a new little chart I’m including this year that I’m dubbing the “division matrix.” Essentially, one of the least understood things about the projected mean standings is that they are mean projections and not necessarily the win totals that will actually win the division. Take for example, the NL East. The Cubs have the best projected record at 87-75, but that doesn’t mean that on-average they’ll win the division by winning 87 games, because not all teams simply perform to their mean projections (nor does ZiPS expect them to). So on the division matrix, the 90th percentile means that 10% of the time, the divisional or Wild Card winner will have at least the number of wins listed.
The standings also do not reflect the two wins for the Mariners and two wins for the A’s. I felt it was kind of cheating to include them in preseason projected standings. But I also didn’t want to make the final projected standings before those games took place, as teams have made about 10,000 small moves since then, keeping me awake and in our depth charts 24/7 for the last week.
And I really shouldn’t have to mention it in the current year, but 0.0% is not literally 0.0%. It’s rounded. So Marlins fan, I’m saying there’s a chance.
ZiPS Mean Projected Standings – AL East
| Team |
W |
L |
GB |
PCT |
DIV% |
WC% |
PLAYOFF% |
WS WIN% |
#1 PICK |
AVG DRAFT POS |
| New York Yankees |
98 |
64 |
— |
.605 |
62.8% |
32.9% |
95.7% |
14.3% |
0.0% |
27.1 |
| Boston Red Sox |
94 |
68 |
4 |
.580 |
34.6% |
53.7% |
88.3% |
9.3% |
0.0% |
25.4 |
| Tampa Bay Rays |
84 |
78 |
14 |
.519 |
2.6% |
27.2% |
29.8% |
1.5% |
0.0% |
17.6 |
| Toronto Blue Jays |
75 |
87 |
23 |
.463 |
0.0% |
2.1% |
2.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
9.9 |
| Baltimore Orioles |
59 |
103 |
39 |
.364 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
32.2% |
2.3 |
ZiPS Mean Projected Standings – AL Central
| Team |
W |
L |
GB |
PCT |
DIV% |
WC% |
PLAYOFF% |
WS WIN% |
#1 PICK |
AVG DRAFT POS |
| Cleveland Indians |
96 |
66 |
— |
.593 |
92.3% |
3.6% |
95.9% |
14.2% |
0.0% |
26.3 |
| Minnesota Twins |
83 |
79 |
13 |
.512 |
7.7% |
19.8% |
27.4% |
1.6% |
0.0% |
17.0 |
| Kansas City Royals |
68 |
94 |
28 |
.420 |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
2.2% |
6.0 |
| Chicago White Sox |
68 |
94 |
28 |
.420 |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
2.4% |
6.0 |
| Detroit Tigers |
68 |
94 |
28 |
.420 |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
2.5% |
5.9 |
You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.
ZiPS Mean Projected Standings – AL West
| Team |
W |
L |
GB |
PCT |
DIV% |
WC% |
PLAYOFF% |
WS WIN% |
#1 PICK |
AVG DRAFT POS |
| Houston Astros |
97 |
65 |
— |
.599 |
85.5% |
9.2% |
94.6% |
14.7% |
0.0% |
26.7 |
| Oakland A’s |
86 |
76 |
11 |
.531 |
11.2% |
34.1% |
45.4% |
2.9% |
0.0% |
19.5 |
| Los Angeles Angels |
81 |
81 |
16 |
.500 |
2.8% |
13.6% |
16.4% |
0.8% |
0.0% |
15.2 |
| Seattle Mariners |
76 |
86 |
21 |
.469 |
0.5% |
3.4% |
3.9% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
11.1 |
| Texas Rangers |
68 |
94 |
29 |
.420 |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
2.5% |
6.0 |
ZiPS Mean Projected Standings – NL East
| Team |
W |
L |
GB |
PCT |
DIV% |
WC% |
PLAYOFF% |
WS WIN% |
#1 PICK |
AVG DRAFT POS |
| Washington Nationals |
93 |
69 |
— |
.574 |
53.1% |
27.9% |
81.0% |
8.4% |
0.0% |
24.5 |
| Philadelphia Phillies |
87 |
75 |
6 |
.537 |
16.4% |
31.5% |
47.9% |
3.1% |
0.0% |
20.2 |
| Atlanta Braves |
87 |
75 |
6 |
.537 |
16.2% |
31.6% |
47.9% |
3.1% |
0.0% |
20.2 |
| New York Mets |
87 |
75 |
6 |
.537 |
14.2% |
29.9% |
44.2% |
2.8% |
0.0% |
19.7 |
| Miami Marlins |
56 |
106 |
37 |
.346 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
56.8% |
1.7 |
ZiPS Mean Projected Standings – NL Central
| Team |
W |
L |
GB |
PCT |
DIV% |
WC% |
PLAYOFF% |
WS WIN% |
#1 PICK |
AVG DRAFT POS |
| Chicago Cubs |
87 |
75 |
— |
.537 |
35.7% |
15.6% |
51.3% |
4.0% |
0.0% |
20.2 |
| St. Louis Cardinals |
86 |
76 |
1 |
.531 |
30.3% |
15.6% |
45.9% |
3.4% |
0.0% |
19.5 |
| Milwaukee Brewers |
85 |
77 |
2 |
.525 |
24.7% |
14.8% |
39.6% |
2.8% |
0.0% |
18.7 |
| Cincinnati Reds |
80 |
82 |
7 |
.494 |
5.7% |
5.8% |
11.5% |
0.6% |
0.0% |
13.8 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates |
78 |
84 |
9 |
.481 |
3.6% |
4.1% |
7.6% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
12.5 |
ZiPS Mean Projected Standings – NL West
| Team |
W |
L |
GB |
PCT |
DIV% |
WC% |
PLAYOFF% |
WS WIN% |
#1 PICK |
AVG DRAFT POS |
| Los Angeles Dodgers |
93 |
69 |
— |
.574 |
86.9% |
3.7% |
90.6% |
10.3% |
0.0% |
24.8 |
| San Diego Padres |
81 |
81 |
12 |
.500 |
7.0% |
10.0% |
17.0% |
0.9% |
0.0% |
15.0 |
| Colorado Rockies |
79 |
83 |
14 |
.488 |
3.6% |
5.4% |
9.0% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
13.0 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks |
77 |
85 |
16 |
.475 |
2.3% |
3.9% |
6.2% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
12.0 |
| San Francisco Giants |
70 |
92 |
23 |
.432 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
1.1% |
7.2 |
ZiPS Division Matrix
| To Win |
10th |
20th |
30th |
40th |
50th |
60th |
70th |
80th |
90th |
| AL East |
93.3 |
95.4 |
96.9 |
98.3 |
99.5 |
100.8 |
102.2 |
104.0 |
106.2 |
| AL Central |
88.7 |
91.2 |
93.0 |
94.6 |
96.1 |
97.6 |
99.3 |
101.1 |
103.9 |
| AL West |
90.3 |
92.6 |
94.3 |
95.8 |
97.2 |
98.6 |
100.1 |
102.0 |
104.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| AL Wild Card 1 |
88.8 |
90.5 |
91.6 |
92.7 |
93.6 |
94.7 |
95.8 |
97.2 |
99.0 |
| AL Wild Card 2 |
84.6 |
86.1 |
87.1 |
88.0 |
88.9 |
89.8 |
90.7 |
91.8 |
93.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| NL East |
89.9 |
91.7 |
93.1 |
94.3 |
95.5 |
96.7 |
98.0 |
99.6 |
101.8 |
| NL Central |
86.4 |
88.1 |
89.5 |
90.6 |
91.8 |
92.9 |
94.1 |
95.6 |
97.6 |
| NL West |
86.8 |
89.1 |
90.7 |
92.3 |
93.7 |
95.1 |
96.7 |
98.7 |
101.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| NL Wild Card 1 |
87.6 |
88.9 |
89.8 |
90.6 |
91.4 |
92.3 |
93.2 |
94.3 |
95.8 |
| NL Wild Card 2 |
85.2 |
86.4 |
87.2 |
88.0 |
88.7 |
89.3 |
90.1 |
91.0 |
92.3 |
NL East with 3 teams at 87 Wins. Gonna be a great season.
The trade deadline is going to be fascinating if it’s tight mid-summer!