The Super-Duper Official Final Preseason-2019 ZiPS Projected Standings

The offseason is over and real baseball has started. The main course has finally arrived after the hors d’oeuvres of the Mariners/Athletics opening series in Japan. The teams are set — pace, Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel — and my last bit of ZiPS business is to put on record the final projected standings for the 2019 season. These are computer-generated projections, remember, and as a result, they certainly do not reflect which teams I hate and which teams I like. If they did, I clearly would not be considered very effective at applying my personal biases, having grown up in Baltimore, booing the Yankees.

Also note that there’s a new little chart I’m including this year that I’m dubbing the “division matrix.” Essentially, one of the least understood things about the projected mean standings is that they are mean projections and not necessarily the win totals that will actually win the division. Take for example, the NL East. The Cubs have the best projected record at 87-75, but that doesn’t mean that on-average they’ll win the division by winning 87 games, because not all teams simply perform to their mean projections (nor does ZiPS expect them to). So on the division matrix, the 90th percentile means that 10% of the time, the divisional or Wild Card winner will have at least the number of wins listed.

The standings also do not reflect the two wins for the Mariners and two wins for the A’s. I felt it was kind of cheating to include them in preseason projected standings. But I also didn’t want to make the final projected standings before those games took place, as teams have made about 10,000 small moves since then, keeping me awake and in our depth charts 24/7 for the last week.

And I really shouldn’t have to mention it in the current year, but 0.0% is not literally 0.0%. It’s rounded. So Marlins fan, I’m saying there’s a chance.

ZiPS Mean Projected Standings – AL East
Team W L GB PCT DIV% WC% PLAYOFF% WS WIN% #1 PICK AVG DRAFT POS
New York Yankees 98 64 .605 62.8% 32.9% 95.7% 14.3% 0.0% 27.1
Boston Red Sox 94 68 4 .580 34.6% 53.7% 88.3% 9.3% 0.0% 25.4
Tampa Bay Rays 84 78 14 .519 2.6% 27.2% 29.8% 1.5% 0.0% 17.6
Toronto Blue Jays 75 87 23 .463 0.0% 2.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 9.9
Baltimore Orioles 59 103 39 .364 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 32.2% 2.3

ZiPS Mean Projected Standings – AL Central
Team W L GB PCT DIV% WC% PLAYOFF% WS WIN% #1 PICK AVG DRAFT POS
Cleveland Indians 96 66 .593 92.3% 3.6% 95.9% 14.2% 0.0% 26.3
Minnesota Twins 83 79 13 .512 7.7% 19.8% 27.4% 1.6% 0.0% 17.0
Kansas City Royals 68 94 28 .420 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.2% 6.0
Chicago White Sox 68 94 28 .420 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.4% 6.0
Detroit Tigers 68 94 28 .420 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.5% 5.9

ZiPS Mean Projected Standings – AL West
Team W L GB PCT DIV% WC% PLAYOFF% WS WIN% #1 PICK AVG DRAFT POS
Houston Astros 97 65 .599 85.5% 9.2% 94.6% 14.7% 0.0% 26.7
Oakland A’s 86 76 11 .531 11.2% 34.1% 45.4% 2.9% 0.0% 19.5
Los Angeles Angels 81 81 16 .500 2.8% 13.6% 16.4% 0.8% 0.0% 15.2
Seattle Mariners 76 86 21 .469 0.5% 3.4% 3.9% 0.2% 0.1% 11.1
Texas Rangers 68 94 29 .420 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.5% 6.0

ZiPS Mean Projected Standings – NL East
Team W L GB PCT DIV% WC% PLAYOFF% WS WIN% #1 PICK AVG DRAFT POS
Washington Nationals 93 69 .574 53.1% 27.9% 81.0% 8.4% 0.0% 24.5
Philadelphia Phillies 87 75 6 .537 16.4% 31.5% 47.9% 3.1% 0.0% 20.2
Atlanta Braves 87 75 6 .537 16.2% 31.6% 47.9% 3.1% 0.0% 20.2
New York Mets 87 75 6 .537 14.2% 29.9% 44.2% 2.8% 0.0% 19.7
Miami Marlins 56 106 37 .346 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 56.8% 1.7

ZiPS Mean Projected Standings – NL Central
Team W L GB PCT DIV% WC% PLAYOFF% WS WIN% #1 PICK AVG DRAFT POS
Chicago Cubs 87 75 .537 35.7% 15.6% 51.3% 4.0% 0.0% 20.2
St. Louis Cardinals 86 76 1 .531 30.3% 15.6% 45.9% 3.4% 0.0% 19.5
Milwaukee Brewers 85 77 2 .525 24.7% 14.8% 39.6% 2.8% 0.0% 18.7
Cincinnati Reds 80 82 7 .494 5.7% 5.8% 11.5% 0.6% 0.0% 13.8
Pittsburgh Pirates 78 84 9 .481 3.6% 4.1% 7.6% 0.4% 0.0% 12.5

ZiPS Mean Projected Standings – NL West
Team W L GB PCT DIV% WC% PLAYOFF% WS WIN% #1 PICK AVG DRAFT POS
Los Angeles Dodgers 93 69 .574 86.9% 3.7% 90.6% 10.3% 0.0% 24.8
San Diego Padres 81 81 12 .500 7.0% 10.0% 17.0% 0.9% 0.0% 15.0
Colorado Rockies 79 83 14 .488 3.6% 5.4% 9.0% 0.4% 0.0% 13.0
Arizona Diamondbacks 77 85 16 .475 2.3% 3.9% 6.2% 0.3% 0.0% 12.0
San Francisco Giants 70 92 23 .432 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 1.1% 7.2

ZiPS Division Matrix
To Win 10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th
AL East 93.3 95.4 96.9 98.3 99.5 100.8 102.2 104.0 106.2
AL Central 88.7 91.2 93.0 94.6 96.1 97.6 99.3 101.1 103.9
AL West 90.3 92.6 94.3 95.8 97.2 98.6 100.1 102.0 104.6
AL Wild Card 1 88.8 90.5 91.6 92.7 93.6 94.7 95.8 97.2 99.0
AL Wild Card 2 84.6 86.1 87.1 88.0 88.9 89.8 90.7 91.8 93.3
NL East 89.9 91.7 93.1 94.3 95.5 96.7 98.0 99.6 101.8
NL Central 86.4 88.1 89.5 90.6 91.8 92.9 94.1 95.6 97.6
NL West 86.8 89.1 90.7 92.3 93.7 95.1 96.7 98.7 101.4
NL Wild Card 1 87.6 88.9 89.8 90.6 91.4 92.3 93.2 94.3 95.8
NL Wild Card 2 85.2 86.4 87.2 88.0 88.7 89.3 90.1 91.0 92.3

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Jeff McNeil Truther
Member
Jeff McNeil Truther

NL East with 3 teams at 87 Wins. Gonna be a great season.

Leinhorn
Member
Member
Leinhorn

The trade deadline is going to be fascinating if it’s tight mid-summer!