The Tigers and Money
Has any division seen a collection of odder off-seasons than the American League Central? The Twins have stocked up, the Indians have stocked down, and the Royals have stocked. Now, the White Sox and Tigers are engaged in what amounts to a bidding war over Johnny Damon. In order to avoid weak arm jokes about a Juan Pierre and Damon collaboration, I’ll focus on the Tigers’ supposed interest.
If reports like this one are valid, then the Tigers are willing to offer Damon a two-year deal worth around $14M. That’s a pretty chunk of change; both fiscally and literally. Most projections held Damon as this year’s Bobby Abreu; the veteran who would be iced out of a roster spot until he signed for a contract severely below than his market value. This Tigers’ offer isn’t his exact market value, but it’s considerably closer than expected. Almost too close, given the team.
Unless Kenny Williams’ desire is understated, it would seem like Detroit is bidding against themselves not only in money, but years. To make things all the murkier, this is the same Tigers’ ballclub who faced severe payroll limitations earlier this off-season, and as a result traded one of their best players because of it. Curtis Granderson will be paid only $5.5M in 2010. The Tigers also traded Edwin Jackson who will make more than $5M as well. They then turned around and used some of that money on … well, a closer, by signing Jose Valverde to a two-year deal worth $14M with a club option for 2012.
The Tigers appear willing to hand out a duplicate of that contract, minus the option, and my math skills aren’t the best, but 7+7 is more than 5+5. That’s not the entire analysis, since the value of adding Max Scherzer and Austin Jackson (along with others) cannot be understated, but it has to be unsettling for Tigers’ fans to see Granderson wear pinstripes and then possibly be replaced by an older, worse, and more expensive player.
Let’s take a closer look at Detroit’s situation. this whole financial crisis going on in Detroit extends beyond their economy. The Tigers’ payroll will sit around $120-$130M next season in large part because of extensions handed out to starting pitchers.
Following Detroit’s run to the World Series, Jeremy Bonderman received a four-year, $38M extension, and nearly a year later the Tigers acquired and re-signed Dontrelle Willis to a three-year, $29M extension, and then about one year after that, they signed Nate Robertson for three years and $21.25M. Those three combined to make 14 starts last season, which equates to roughly $2M per start. Pitchers are a different beast. Obviously all three falling to health and ineffectiveness seemed highly, highly unlikely, but it happens. That’s not even to say the contracts were bad ideas, but boy are they shaping the way the 2010 Tigers look.
Whether the Damon deal happens or not.
I think alot of assumptions were made about the Tigers having “severe payroll limitations” earlier BECAUSE of the Granderson trade along with other moves (i.e. not offering arbitration to Polanco), but it seems increasingly the case not that the Tigers have done a 180, but that the people doing the assuming were simply wrong. They drew the simple line of: Economy bad —–> Detroit’s economy even worse than the rest of bad economy ————-> Tigers will pare payroll. When certain moves that pared payroll happened, it led to further assumptions and in the minds of many, confirmation.
It appears more likely to be the case now that these assumptions were just that: Assumptions. While I think payroll was a component of the Granderson/Jackson trade in that they received four players who are very likely to at minimum be contributors on the MLB team with a combined 21 years of team control in exchange for two good players who were higher up on the pay scale, I don’t think the trade was entirely payroll driven and I haven’t seen much proof of it. The signing of Valverde and pursuit of Damon seem to reinforce that.
I do wonder though, if they’re willing to pay Damon 2/14, why they didn’t try to step in front of Boston to get Cameron? Maybe they did and his agent told them that he wasn’t interested, but it seems based on the Tigers needs that Cameron would be a better fit, allowing them to ease Austin Jackson in. Oh well.
Hit the nail on the head there. I don’t think it’s too much to suggest that the Tigers think that Jackson-Scherzer-Sizemore will be a more effective group in the next few years than Granderson-Jackson-Polanco. And team control is a big deal for reasons other than just money. The whole “Tigers don’t have money” crap is just lazy analysis that doesn’t hold water when you look at their offseason.
Basically, for that to be true, you would have to assume that after DD traded CG and EJ to save money, he got dementia or amnesia and forgot how bad their money issues were, and then went and signed Jose Valverde and now Johnny Damon. Something tells me that’s not likely.