The Tigers and Their Left Field Sort-Of Problem
So here’s the deal for the Tigers: they were planning to run with a platoon of Andy Dirks and Rajai Davis in left field. Davis is still his ordinary, healthy, surprisingly-33-year-old self. Dirks, however, is hurt, and he’s going to have back surgery, and the timetable has him maybe returning in three months. Neither the injury nor the procedure is expected to jeopardize Dirks’ career, but he’ll miss a lot of time in this year’s first half. The Tigers have a problem because one of their projected regulars won’t be able to be a regular for some time, and the guys behind regulars are worse than the regulars are.
The Tigers are trying to be a playoff team, so on the heels of the Dirks announcement, the natural question is, what’ll they do to patch this? Suddenly, the team has an obvious weakness. Playoff teams ought to address their obvious weaknesses. If you’ve mentally skipped ahead, perhaps you’ve concluded that this won’t actually be that big of a deal. It turns out I agree with you, but wait, I have several hundred words of explanation! Don’t go!
Let’s say left field was going to be Dirks and Davis. Dirks, being the left-handed hitter, was in line to play more, by maybe something like 50%. So let’s say Dirks would’ve played the equivalent of roughly 110 full games. Now he’s injured and he’s going to have his body opened up by professionals. The current timetable would have him miss about a third of the year, or about 37 of his games. Maybe things go a little slower. Maybe Dirks ends up healthy and ready again around the midpoint. Then he’d miss about 55 of his games. What is the value of 37-55 games of a platooned Andy Dirks in left field? That’s what the Tigers project to be without. At the absolute max, maybe that works out to a win. More likely, it’s a fraction of a win. The news does remarkably little to change the overall numbers.
The value to a team of a good player over a full season can be overstated. The value to a team of a good player over a partial season can be overstated. The value to a team of a decent player over a partial season can be overstated. The Tigers are losing a decent player for a partial season, and it’s not like left field was a team strength before this news anyway. They were planning a platoon. The fact that Dirks was going to be platooned in the first place is indicative of his value as a player.
Now, the season hasn’t even started yet, and the Tigers are worse off. Obviously, that’s not good news for them, and even a handful of runs can be enormously significant when you’re a team on the bubble. That’s the old familiar win-curve argument. But the thing is that the Tigers aren’t on the bubble. With Andy Dirks, without Andy Dirks — the Tigers project to win their division, by quite a bit.
According to our Playoff Odds page, there’s an eight-win gap between the Tigers and the Indians, which is the biggest between first and second place in any division. PECOTA, meanwhile, sees a nine-win gap, smaller only than the 11-win gap between the Dodgers and the Giants. Odds are just odds and things can go wrong — Andy Dirks just went wrong — but the Tigers project to have a relatively easy path to the ALDS, and that means when it comes to left field, there’s not really a sense of urgency. Being without Dirks for a few months hurts. A bubble team would need to find a short-term solution. The Tigers would survive just playing Don Kelly.
So it doesn’t look like this is that big of a deal. The Tigers will still need to do something, even if that’s just agreeing to play Rajai Davis every day. That’s not what he was signed for, and that’s not what the Tigers hope for, and it would be better to keep Davis as a part-timer. He doesn’t really hit righties, and by having him available on the bench, the Tigers could best make use of his baserunning, which is the area where he really shines. The Tigers are going to want to plug in a lefty.
There’s not a lot in the cupboard. Again, the team was going to play a lot of Andy Dirks. There’s Kelly, who’s a nothing player. There’s prospect Daniel Fields, but he doesn’t appear ready yet. Steve Lombardozzi could get outfield reps, but he’s just a younger Don Kelly type. Ezequiel Carrera’s in camp as a non-roster invitee. The same goes for Trevor Crowe and Tyler Collins. There are different player types here, but one thing they have in common is they’re all probably more or less replacement-level. In that sense, it’s a tough decision that isn’t.
And the Tigers would survive playing any of these guys, most probably. It would do little to shift their overall team playoff odds. The Tigers say they intend to patch the hole internally, but there are external options if they want to pick up the phone. And those options range from more sexy to less sexy.
In Dave’s chat earlier Wednesday, someone asked about Detroit picking up Andre Ethier. That would count as a splash. Dave countered with the idea of Michael Saunders, and that would be more of a…I don’t know, a littler splash. There might be an extra consideration here — after this season, Torii Hunter is a free agent, and there isn’t big-league-ready help on the farm. This could conceivably prompt the Tigers to look for a short-term bump who could also help down the road.
Bigger options could also include names like Jon Jay and Will Venable. To go almost completely off the map, the Tigers could try to pry away Ichiro Suzuki. Mike Carp could keep faking it in left, and the Rays might be beginning to sour on Matt Joyce, and the White Sox are taking called on Alejandro De Aza now that they have three other, younger outfielders. There are guys the Tigers might be able to get, in exchange for value. These would be more significant moves, and they could leave Dirks on the outside looking in, even upon his return.
But then there are simpler potential external options. It could be that the Rockies would give up Corey Dickerson, as he’s not guaranteed a job. Even less sexy than that are names like Ryan Sweeney and Brian Bogusevic. Sweeney, right now, is a backup lefty outfielder on a bad team. Bogusevic looks like a backup lefty outfielder on a worse team. They could be available for relatively cheap, and then they could give the Tigers Dirks-level production while Dirks is away. And when Dirks is back, the situation’s re-evaluated, and no one is necessarily guaranteed anything.
The most interesting decision would be the Tigers going after a legitimate everyday player. A guy who’d make them better in 2014, and then perhaps in 2015 after Hunter’s gone. A more likely decision would be the Tigers going after a Bogusevic type. The most likely decision would be the Tigers staying internal, even though, internally, they’re light on outfield talent. Dirks won’t be gone all that long. Being without Dirks isn’t all that damaging. And the Tigers are on top of the Central, looking down on inferior rivals. Nobody ever wants to be dealt a blow. But the Tigers are in good position to take one, and this blow could’ve hit a more critical spot.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Good rundown, as always, but I have one minor correction: Ryan Sweeney is not a backup lefty outfielder on a bad team. Right now he is the starting center fielder on a team that is apparently worse than you thought it was.
Ruggiano? Oh dear.
Ruggi-oh no!
Willingham would be a great bounceback candidate for the Tigers, if only the Twins weren’t in the division. Not that it should matter, the Twins aren’t going to win and they have to recognize it. One would hope.
LF has been a problem for Detroit ever since Carlos Guillen got injured in 2009.
They could probably get a really pretty decent left fielder if they’d make Doug Fister available
Daggers, appropriate daggers.
This caused me physical pain.
The Fister trade was a good trade… if you really look at the numbers.
1. Dombrowski likely thinks that the Porcello will outpitch Fister the next 5 years (reasonable given his age). Porcello will also be a little cheaper.
2. All three guys the Tigers got are BOTH good enough to make their roster AND cheap enough to be be near league minimum.
3. Tiger will reasonable get 15 years of collective service and save themselves $40MM – $70MM with this deal (compared to equivalent free agents).
Look at this way… if it were simply the rights to Fister for $40MM, would you do it?
1. Even if he thinks Porcello will out-perform Fister over the next five years, why would he not keep Fister for the next two cost-controlled years in which he is likely to still be a high-quality pitcher?
2. Lombardozzi is basically a replacement level player. He is not a valuable piece. Ray is a potential middle of the rotation guy who is not ready yet (given he only has 11 starts above A-ball). Krol looks like a solid, but unspectacular reliever. How does this possibly add up to two cost-controlled years of a top-20 starter?
3. No idea where you are getting these numbers from. The only way I see to get near these numbers is if you pretend Lombo is an above-replacement player, that Krol is a legitimate shutdown late-inning lefty, and Ray is guaranteed to develop into a mid-rotation starter. None of these things are true.
Trading Fister may have been the right idea, but trading him for the return they got was not. Tomes have been written about how the Tigers could’ve done much better by opening up the possibility of trading Fister to anyone other than the Nats.
I’m not sure where you’re getting that Porcello’s cheaper. Both signed to avoid arbitration, with Fister signing for $7.2M and Porcello for $8.5M. 2015 will be the final arbitration year for both, but since Porcello has about more 100 days of service time and a higher 2014 salary, Fister would have to outpitch Porcello by quite a bit to earn a higher 2015 salary.
I think too many people are ignoring the Royals. Almost every player is entering or already in their prime. That usually means there will be a couple career years that are difficult to project. This division will come down to the last week IMO.
Yes, everyone is forgetting that Alcides Escobar and Mike Moustakas might have career years.
But it also seems unlikely that they will give up the fewest runs in the AL again.
Man I wish PECOTA and the Fangraphs playoff odds generator had a way of projecting players getting into their peak years.
Oh wait.
I agree that losing Dirks for half a season isn’t a problem by itself. But they’re going to be up a creek without a Louisville slugger if Hunter can’t give them a 140+ starts in RF.
Don Kelly is the definition of a replacement-level player who is a nice spare part when he plays ~200 innings total in the corner outfield but whose main contribute is to provide positional versatility. But right now he’s the primary 4th outfielder (assuming Davis is the everyday LF), which leaves the Tigers one pulled hammy by their 38 year-old rightfielder away from having to play him everyday (or an alligator’s jaw being able to tear apart some duct tape…).
Given the (self-imposed) payroll constraints, someone who costs much more than $1-2M is unlikely. So a guy like John Jay ($3.25M for 2014) is probably not in the Cards (pun intended), even if the Tigers could offer a deal that would appeal to St Louis. Same with De Aza ($4.25M) and Joyce ($3.7M).
If I were the Tigers, I wouldn’t be in a hurry to make a trade for a corner outfielder as there is a decent chance that they’ll be able to find a gem amongst the NRI discards that won’t cost them any talent to acquire. For example, someone like Tyler Colvin would be a solid fit for the Tigers (very similar package to Dirks) and Colvin seems unlikely to make the Giants barring an injury. Assuming Colvin’s a free agent on April 1st, the Tigers could probably sign him with a major league contract of somewhere between $500k-$1M and the promise of playing regularly against righties for the first half of the season, which for Colvin is as good as it’s going to get.
I like this post. A Tyler Colvin type would be alright. Although, where are you getting the payroll constraint idea? I can’t imagine a couple million dollars being a huge deal if Jay or Joyce is available. Of course, finding the right pieces to trade might be a problem.
Around the time of the Fister trade, there were reports in the Detroit media that Ilitch had instructed Dombrowski to keep the 2014 payroll under $160M (it had been $150M in 2013). They’re already at $161M, so presumably they’re not in a position to take on additional salaries. However, there’s always a chance that Ilitch will change his mind, so who knows.
The Tigers are really limited in what they can offer given that their top three prospects can’t really be dealt: Castellanos (2014 3B), Crawford (drafted in 2013), and Robbie Ray (just acquired in the Fister trade). I suppose that they could move Ray, but Dombrowski’s defense to criticism over not getting enough for Fister has been that Ray is an incredible prospect. If that’s his sincere belief, then he values Ray far more highly than the rest of the industry.
Outside of those three, there’s no one that could headline a trade for a someone like John Jay. McCann’s future in the majors is as a backup or platoon catcher. Thompson’s ceiling is as a back-of-the-rotation starter. Knebel is interesting, but like Crawford is a 2013 draftee that can’t be drafted yet.
They’ve got a couple of high upside, high risk guys in Briceno and Moya. But those are guys that figure to be more like add-ins than the main components.
I don’t see how they can put together a package for someone like John Jay. Maybe they could get Joyce if the Rays decide they want a young catcher closer to the majors than Ciuffo. Actually, a Ciuffo/McCann tandem would be a very nice young catching platoon post-Molina. Aside from McCann, the Rays are already pretty deep in back-of-the-rotation prospects, so I’m not sure that they’d view Thompson as a significant marginal addition and I’m pretty sure that (like Ray) the Tigers see Thompson as having more upside than most in baseball. But I’m not sure that trading McCann for Joyce makes much sense for the Tigers, who may need McCann themselves in 2014 if anything happens to Avila.
I just think that the most prudent course of action is to add depth by being aggressive on NRI discards, someone like Tyler Colvin. But they do need to add someone, because their MLB-ready outfield depth is pretty mediocre for a contending team.
Funny that this happened on the day Rick Ankiel announced his retirement because he’s not getting any calls. He’d seem like the obvious choice.
And with Leyland retired, there’s zero chance he’d try him at closer.
I have an out of left field solution for their left field problem: sign Kendrys Morales. Miggy back to 3B, Castellanos as starting LF.
Then in the offseason, Martinez retires, Morales to DH, Miggy to 1B, Castellanos to 3B, and they sign a pair of corner outfielders.
The last thing the Tigers need is another DH unless they’re trying to corner the market on them.
I thought the same thing, it would be the same type of move they made after VMart injured himself and prompted them to sign Fielder. Castellanos at this time does not look like a better defensive option than Miggy though he would improve as the season went on, and even with Miggy at 3B and Morales at 1B they would be equal or slightly better on defense than last year’s squad due to the up the middle changes already made.
Overall though I think they’d give away as much as they would gain by signing Morales unless he came VERY cheap, like 2y/$10mill, thus allowing the club to keep Scherzer and sign an OF next offseason.
I also thought to myself that Nelson Cruz must be pretty pissed, he would be the obvious sign for the Tigers and would probably get 2 years out of them at least.
Given the weak state of their farm system, the Tigers really can’t afford to give up their first round draft pick. They’d also have to exceed their 2014 budget by well over $10M to get Morales, which they did a few years ago for Fielder, but Morales is nowhere close to being the impact bat that Fielder was. Finally, given the defensive downgrades at multiple positions, I’m not sure that adding Morales is much of a net positive.
The biggest problem with this is Miggy’s health, not defense. (Positional adjustments, if you think they’re fine, have said Miggy is more valuable at 3B than 1B)
Is V-Mart planning to retire after 2014? He was pretty solid last season, especially in the 2nd half. Unless he is continuing to have serious health issues, I would think he’d have a job out there.
Great article, ammednum to your external options: Ichiro’s hauled pretty consistent reverse platoon splits, he’s not really a viable option as an everyday outfielder or as a platoon with Davis (or anyone, for that matter). That’s part of what’s made him so hard for Cashman and company to get trade him.