Third Base Looks Like a Buyer’s Market
Yesterday, I suggested the Blue Jays and Cardinals should consider making a swap centered around Josh Donaldson. Unsurprisingly, many of the comments felt the return for a true superstar was less than it should be. Historically, the public expectation of what elite players will return in trade is less than they actually bring back when traded. But beyond just a difference in expected market value for one year of an elite player, I think that the Jays might want to consider that, if things go south this year, they’ll be tasked with trading a third baseman in a buyer’s market.
Let’s start by just looking at the teams that we can reasonably expect to be buyers this summer. There are 10 teams that currently project for 84+ wins in 2018; here are their third base situations.
Astros: Alex Bregman
Indians: Yandy Diaz?
Dodgers: Justin Turner
Nationals: Anthony Rendon
Cubs: Kris Bryant
Red Sox: Rafael Devers
Yankees: Chase Headley/Gleyber Torres
Cardinals: Jedd Gyorko
Diamondbacks: Jake Lamb
Angels: Luis Valbuena
Of those 10, unless there’s a season-ending injury, you can effectively cross off Houston, LA, Washington, Chicago, Boston, and Arizona.
Cleveland could use an upgrade at third base, but isn’t in the habit of paying premium prices for rentals, and Donaldson’s salary might be an obstacle for them. The Yankees could be a buyer, but if Torres returns at 100%, he could easily displace Headley and take the Yankees out of the market for a third baseman. The Cardinals could be the most obvious buyer, but if they don’t get Donaldson this winter, they probably go after some other big slugger, and might not be in the market for Donaldson if they pay a high price for a guy like Giancarlo Stanton. The Angels also could definitely be buyers, but their line-up is very right-handed already, and they might prefer a left-handed slugger instead.
So there are four maybe buyers of third baseman in that mix, but none of them look like perfect fits for a mid-season Donaldson trade for various reasons. And if you go down to the next tier of teams, ones who could be buyers or sellers, the pickings get even slimmer.
The Pirates could use an upgrade on David Freese, but it’s not easy to see them paying a significant price for rent-a-Donaldson in July. The Mets could push Asdrubal Cabrera back to second base or shortstop if their pitching stays healthy and they want to add an impact bat, but they seem like a long-shot to keep up with the Nationals in the NL East, and they probably wouldn’t pay a premium to improve for just a few at-bats in a Wild Card game. The Giants could definitely use a third baseman, but they’re focused on trading for Stanton at the moment, and their farm system isn’t anything to write home about anyway.
The reality is that, outside of the Angels and Giants, there aren’t too many teams that are definitely going to be trying to win in 2018 and have clear needs at third base. And those are two of the worst farm systems in baseball. Oh, and there happen to be two pretty decent free agent third baseman out there in Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier, both of whom will sign a multi-year deal, likely with one of the aforementioned teams, that will remove them from consideration for a July third base acquisition.
And the buyers market for third baseman is only likely to get worse. Reports suggest that the Rays are going to shop Evan Longoria this winter, putting another above-average third baseman in play for teams looking to upgrade. Given Moustakas and Frazier’s expected contracts, I don’t think the Rays will find a buyer before the season starts, but they’ll probably keep looking to move him in-season if they don’t find a new home for him before Spring Training.
The Orioles unlikely chance to contend will likely crystalize in mid-summer, forcing them to confront the possibility of putting Manny Machado on the market. And if the Rangers fall out of the race again, Adrian Beltre could be made available as a rental.
It’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility that all four of these teams could be shopping their third baseman this summer. And having Donaldson, Machado, Beltre, and Longoria on the market at the same time would be a disaster for each of those clubs, especially given how well positioned most contenders are at third base.
Of course, injuries will change things. Someone who isn’t thinking they’ll be looking for a third base upgrade this summer will find themselves in need of an upgrade at the hot corner. The future is unpredictable. But if I was thinking about trading a third baseman at some point in the next 12 months, I’d probably be interested in doing it sooner than later. Once Moustakas and Frazier sign, two potential landing spots will likely be off the board, and there aren’t that many to begin with.
And then potential 3B-sellers might have to race each other to market in order to avoid an oversupply problem. We saw what happened with J.D. Martinez this summer when no one really needed a right-handed corner outfielder. It’s easy to think that there will always be interest in acquiring a great player like Donaldson, and to some extent that is true, but if the Blue Jays are looking for a significant return if they fall out of the race, they might find themselves disappointed on many fronts once August rolls around.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I feel like the Jays easily win that Donaldson trade proposal. Although Donaldson is a superstar, he doesn’t have a TON of trade value when he’s on a one year deal around $20 mil. Turning him into 6 years of above average production is a clear win in my book. Not sure why the Cardinals make that trade. I think its much more likely they deal from their outfield surplus or just stick to trading prospects.
Some Jays fans did say they would like that deal, but there wasn’t a ton of support for it. I think the most common sentiment was “I don’t hate the deal, I’d be okay with it.”
The Jays would take a hit on competing next year compared to signing a 2B, and the Cards would take a hit long-term by giving up the years of control. This is the problem when you have two teams that both want to pry open the window of contention longer while keeping this year’s chances alive…both teams are looking for the same things.
I just don’t know why either team would take that deal when they are both appear interested in similar assets.
Well yes, I agree this isn’t the best possible move for them. It’d make more sense to trade for Cesar Hernandez or sign Neil Walker or something like that. But it’s much better than losing Donaldson for nothing if they don’t think they can compete for the AL East in 2018. And if I’m picking a winner in that hypothetical it’s definitely the Jays. Cardinals improve slightly in 2018 (and have to rely on unproven Paul DeJong and inconsistent Kolten Wong) while losing key contributors for 2019-2020.
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Red Sox might be on the buyer list despite Devers. They could use a 3B/1B/DH right now. Depending on defensive evaluations of Devers, they might want to get on a 3B now while they’re cheap & plentiful – and move Devers early (or DH him)? SSS and all, but he didn’t look so great, just better than Pablo.
Also, their contending window seems to be right now – so as much as I’d hate to see Dombrowski trade more prospects for current value, I wouldn’t be slightly surprised if it happened.
Donaldson makes a lot of sense for what they need, ignoring prospect cost & marginal regular season wins.
While it won’t totally preclude the possibility, all teams are reluctant to trade within their own division. Seems like Donaldson going to the Yanks or Sawx has that to condider in addition to an actual package of players being agreed upon.
The inter-divisional trade thing is kind of overblown in the AL East, the only teams that don’t generally trade between each other is the Red Sox and Yankees. That being said, I think you’re right that they probably add a premium, to that end I don’t think a trade between the Red Sox and Jays for Donaldson could happen without including Devers, even if it was just the structure and more pieces get added.
As I said yesterday, Donaldson is one of the best players in the game. Just because you have a strong 3B, doesn’t mean you turn down adding an elite player.
Need a bat? Donaldson didn’t qualify, but he would have ranked 8th in wRC+. Between 2015-2017 JD ranks fourth with a 153 wRC+ (3 points behind #3 hitter over that time, Bryce Harper).
Have a player with positional flexibility? You can move them and install JD at 3B. You crossed the Cubs off the list because of Bryant, but in the past you’ve said the Cubs could use another OF. Bryant has experience in LF, so I don’t see why the Cubs wouldn’t move him there for a month or two if they picked him up.
You’re also assuming that Torres hits the ground running, and if he doesn’t then yeah, the Yanks are going to need a 3B. If Arizona is winning, they’re not saying, sorry, we like Jake Lamb’s 2.5 WAR, we’ll pass on potentially adding 3-4 WAR over the next 2 months (Donaldson had 3.4 WAR in the second half last year, most of which came during his insane August-September). I don’t see the Cardinals saying no to upgrading over Gyroko either. If they add a bat and are in the hunt, it’d be a massive upgrade to get JD and have Gyorko as depth. They’d have a much better chance with 2 elite bats in the lineup (one added in offseason, and JD as a rental). I think you’re overestimating the amount of depth some of these teams have.
I think the market for Donaldson is bigger than you’re giving credit for. I think the bigger issue is a team like LAA not having the talent to trade for a guy like JD because the farm is so brutal they can’t get a rental, not that teams have too many good players. Half the guys you listed are 2-3 WAR guys. Donaldson can get you that and more over 2 months.
Maybe for other 3B you might have a point, but the market for Donaldson at midseason even ignoring injuries is more than 4 teams. Even your JD Martinez example is flawed. Martinez’s best season (5 WAR) was tied with Donaldson’s worst in the last few years, when he played around 113 games, and still had 5 WAR. Donaldson’s just on another level.
The general problem with your take is that many of your examples are more along the lines of “nice to have” trades than “need to have” upgrades.
For Arizona: what are examples of recent mid-season trades where teams have decided to make acquisitions in order to bench above average, 2.5 to 3 WAR, position players? And that’s what would need to happen there, as Goldschmidt is at 1B so there’s no path to moving Donaldson or Lamb to 1B.
Similar story for Chicago. While they’d like to have Donaldson at some price, they also have clear needs for starting pitching and late-inning relievers that are higher priority for spending their money and trade assets.
What you’re missing is that the upgrade from a 2-3 WAR player only provides so much value to a team, particularly if it’s only for half a season. It’s not so much that a team wouldn’t like that upgrade in a vacuum – it would – but that it’s going to see other upgrades, from playing time for players well below 2 WAR, as good alternate uses of resources even without acquiring a superstar player such as Donaldson.
In other words, the dynamic that Dave Cameron lay outs is that “nobody is going to pay a premium for Donaldson versus his surplus value, and maybe the midseason market dynamic actually pushes toward 75 cents on the dollar.” And that’s consistent with an upgrade seeming like a “nice to have” rather than a “need to have” for teams.
I would say that upgrading over a sub 2 WAR player is more than a nice to have option for a contending team. That seems like a pretty clear need from where I’m standing.
For instance, the Cubs didn’t even have a 2 WAR OF last year. They had a bunch of guys around 1.5-1.8 WAR, but that’s not good at all. And one of the best everyday options from that group is also a FA. The Cubs do need a SP, but it’s more of a back end SP than a front end guy, given they have Lester/Quintana/Hendricks. Upgrading the OF is a huge priority, something that Cameron mentioned in his previous post about them when he said they should retool.
So the Arizona example, sure, you have a point, but not the Cubs, and there are plenty of other teams who it makes sense for.
The “bunch of 1.5 to 1.8 WAR” outfielders that you mention on the Cubs also compiled those totals in sub-500 PA’s. Yes, there are probably some platoon questions about how they are mixed and matched to get to full seasons, but these are 2-3 WAR combinations over full seasons.
Let me also ask you: what OF do you see the Cubs benching to move Bryant there? The Cubs aren’t going to bench Schwarber. They probably should think about benching Heyward, but I don’t see it happening. And, beyond the clubhouse and salary factors that push toward Heyward playing, he is still an under-30 player who put up 5+ WAR seasons as recently as 2014 and 2015. The Cubs are paying him $20+ million per year through 2023 in any case, so why not bank on upside from him?
I am less optimistic than you on this point on the future of Jason Heyward, but come to the same conclusion about whether the Cubs will bench Heyward. The Heyward signing is a classic case of loss aversion…and unless the Cubs are willing to admit a huge error and eat a massive contract, he’s going to start in the hopes he plays well (maybe well enough to opt out).
Again, you’re welcome to argue that, but Cameron made it in clear in a previous post the Cubs need to upgrade the OF (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cubs-already-need-to-retool/).
“The outfield, in particular, is kind of a mess, with a bunch of flawed candidates offering just enough upside to justify regular playing time, but no one from the group looking like an everyday guy.”
Dave Cameron is the one who said the Cubs OF is a mess. He also said they don’t need a 3B because they have Bryant. What I’m saying is if you combine these 2 ideas, the Cubs can expand their talent search beyond just upgrading an OF, to adding a 3B and shifting Bryant to the OF. Either solution, trading for an OF, or trading for a 3B and moving Bryant to the OF, helps them fill a weakness.
If Cameron is going to argue the Cubs need OF help, then this is one way to help them improve their OF.
What you quoted from Dave Cameron, though, suggests upgrades more along the lines of finding some appropriate complementary players such as, for example, to utilize platoons – “no one from the group looking like an everyday guy” – than paying up in a big trade that moves Bryant to the outfield and then crowds those other players into fewer spots.
If they all “offer just enough upside to justify regular playing time”, it doesn’t make much sense to set up a situation where as a group they spend a lot more time on the bench. “Kind of a mess” is saying that it’s a complicated situation, not that they’re forced to use truly awful players.
Granted, one answer could be trade one or more of those players for staring pitching. I see two problems with that idea, however.
First, Donaldson is a rental, so trading away long-term control of someone like Happ or Schwarber because Donaldson creates a crowded situation in 2018 is an odd approach to medium-term roster construction. It’s making a long-term decision in order to accommodate a short-term decision.
Second, I would say that the idea of “make move X that then requires move Y” is something that we see bandied about in Internet comments far more than it ever actually occurs with real front offices. I assume that’s because an actual MLB front office needs to consider the possibility that “move Y” might not actually happen and that boxing yourself into other teams feeling that you need to make “move Y” can often be a way to lose negotiating leverage and get a poor return on the second trade.
Dave, you say that the Angels have one of the worst farm systems in baseball… isn’t that outdated information?
They’re still probably in the bottom third. Let’s wait until updates are posted before proclaiming them out of the woods yet.
I bet you’re wrong, Pete.
Um, only 10 buyers this offseason? What about the Mariners, Rangers, Twins, Giants, Rockies, Mets? I don’t know why you’re using an arbitrary 84 wins as your cutoff (based on admittedly inaccurate projections) but you’re leaving key pieces of the conversation off the table, especially when 3-4 of them might be buyers at 3B. Makes it not so much a buyer’s market, right?
I think maybe by “buyers” he really meant “buyers for Donaldson” — i.e. teams who’d be in on a potentially very expensive trade for a rental piece. Somehow we aren’t supposed to be weighing this particular blue-sky trade idea against the free agent market, or other trade ideas. I don’t really know why.
Why would the Mariners be interested in acquiring a third baseman? They currently have one who has averaged 4.3 fwar over the last 6 years, and his last two seasons were 5.5 and 3.5, respectively. On top of that, he is signed to a relatively team-friendly contract. I’m not sure the Mariners would see this as a worthwhile upgrade, given the cost.
I assume the idea is that for the Mariners he’d be acquired for use at another position. It’s not like they couldn’t use that bat on the right side of their infield.
I guess I hadn’t really considered that, though it seems wasteful to move either Seager or Donaldson to 1st. Not to mention that it would be for naught if they didn’t spend any available capital on pitching.
Twins aren’t going to spend their limited resources on a 3B when they have Miguel Sano there and Mauer at 1B.
Mariners – Seager
Rangers – Beltre
Twins – Sano
Giants – addressed in article
Rockies – Arenado
Mets – addressed in article
Could you please restate your question?
It seems odd to focus on 10 teams. If there are only 10 teams who project for 84+ wins, doesn’t that just mean that teams who project to have 80 or 82 wins are contenders? Doesn’t that mean that the bar for playoffs next season seems to be lower than usual based on current projections and more teams should be looking for opportunities to upgrade?
There are five more teams projected currently by Fangraphs for 82 wins and then there are the Rockies who made the playoffs in 2017. I would think any of those six teams and possibly a couple more would consider themselves contenders and some of them will be buyers. The Twins, for example, have made it as clear as possible that they are looking to buy.
I provided a similar reply to a similar question above:
Mariners – Seager
Rangers – Beltre
Twins – Sano
Giants – addressed in article
Rockies – Arenado
Mets – addressed in article
Pirates – addressed in article
Rays – addressed in article
Marlins – cutting payroll
That’s all teams projected above .500 plus a few more.
Looks like 10-12 teams could be in on a 3Bman. For openers, I doubt that Luis Valbuena is going to prevent the Halos from pursuing Mous.
I would count any of the following as potentially in the 3B market:
Yanks
Twins
Royals
Halos
Braves
Mets
Phils
Cards
Pads
Giants
ChiSox
The Royals, White Sox, Braves, Phillies, and Padres are all questionable based on their spot on the win curve and current state of rebuilding. A rental or Frazier (32 for the 2018 season) almost certainly isn’t of interest, and even Moustakas (currently 29) is a bit of stretch.
The Yankees have said that they’re committed to getting under the luxury tax in order to reset their penalties for overages. Given their current commitments and estimated arb awards (per Cot’s luxury tax tracker), that leaves them about $27 million of room under the tax threshold. Factor in their need to add some starting pitching in free agency, and that doesn’t leave the Yankees with room for Donaldson’s arb salary or one of the free agents.
I think with the Braves it really depends on what their goal is for this year. If it’s to try and cobble together a team that can -maybe- get lucky and go on a run then they have to make a move at 3rd.
If the Braves are happy taking another year to rebuild, than current MLB internal options and waiting to see what Austin Riley is, makes sense.
I think Frazier is definitely in play for teams like the Phils and Braves.
“Historically, the public expectation of what elite players will return in trade is less than they actually bring back when traded. ”
I am pretty sure you meant “more”… the expectation is MORE than what actually happens. I even read through the 2014 article linked to make sure I wasn’t going crazy.
I’m not one to quibble over typos and grammar stuff but this one actually might mislead readers since it is hard to pick up on… so I figured I’d mention it.
That definitely has the feel of a sentence that made sense originally, but was edited by Dave or someone else to clean it up and the meaning got flipped. It’s hard for the writer or editor to pick the error up because they know the sentence’s intent and don’t really “read” it anymore.
I recognize the error because I do it about 3 times a week…
Indians not planning on having kipnis at 2b and jram at 3b?
Totally up in the air what they’re going to do. Talk in the local media has been that Francona likes Ramirez at 2b enough to try to keep him there, even though that throws everything else out of whack. Kip to LF (and then Brantley, if healthy, to 1b) is an idea that’s been floated in that scenario.
I hope not. Ramirez has shown himself to be average (at best) at second, but well above average at third, at least going by UZR (DRS differs). I really don’t think he has the range for 2nd, for what that’s worth.
Until this year, Kipnis DID have the range, so I hope they go back to him at 2nd. Plus, Kipnis’s bat doesn’t have to bounce back all the way to be valuable at 2nd the way it does at 3rd.
I wonder if Kipnis could be in a package for Donaldson. Shapiro and Atkins are familiar with him, and if Kipnis bounces back it could help Toronto with it’s goal of adding future value while still competing in 2018. Plus, Toronto’s situation at 2B and in corner OF is far from set.
Perhaps, but I’m not sure why Cleveland wouldn’t just bet on a bounceback from Kipnis. He’s signed for 2018 and 2019 with a team option for 2020.
Donaldson should be a 2018 upgrade for Cleveland, but Fangraphs projections as of today have Cleveland projected to win the AL Central by 12 games in 2018. Just don’t see that such a heavy favorite really feels the need to trade for a relatively high-cost rental player.
I’m really curious to see what the Yankees do here. Because I think Castro ends up being traded or a super utility if Torres forces his way up. Torres doesn’t seem to currently have the pop one would expect from a third baseman. Currently I believe he slots better defensively at 2b. That plus the fact that the Yankees are in need of a dh, I could see them re-signing Frazier with the possibility of him playing dh as he ages or if they sign Machado or Donaldson in the next FA period. I find it hard to imagine an inter AL-east trade involving the Yankees. They do have the pieces to make it happen but that division is just so competitive.
I doubt that the Yankees re-sign Frazier because his expected free agent deal ($14 million AAV) uses up half of the Yankees’ room under the luxury tax line without addressing starting pitching. Even more so for Donaldson, whose estimated arb salary is $20 million.
If the Yankees are truly committed to staying under the luxury tax in 2018 to reset their tax rate going forward – as they’ve publicly stated – I don’t see them doing anything much in free agency beyond starting pitching.
Unless they can get a top flight starting pitcher as a free agent on a minimum contract, which frees up a decent chunk of change.
Depends on what you see the Yanks doing for pitching. They do have Chance Adams who tore it up at AAA last year. Then it comes down to how much faith you have in Jordan Montgomery. They could resign CC which would make some sense, especially if he takes a discount to stay in New York. If they do go after Cobb or Lynn it won’t be terribly expensive and possibly less than what CC would command. It’s to bad they can’t trade Elsbury with some talent to open up some money. He’s a lead weight. Do you trust Headley at 3rd and who’s DHing?
According to Cots, they are on the hook for just shy of $156M for next season, which gives then around $29M to spend in free agency.
Your discussion of pitching is probably a fair one, but with a rotation that already includes Tanaka, Gray, and Severino already included in those salaries, you don’t have an abundance of slots available. They have already stated that Green is going into ST as a starter. So you’ve got Green, Montgomery, and Adams available. If they sign Otani, who would be paid the league minimum, they still have $28+M to spend on a potential 3B or DH solution to stay under the tax threshold.
They do need a long term plan at 3b as Headley’s deal is up after this year. If that plan includes Andujar great then they shouldn’t have to do much. I guess if you wanted to you could DH Elsbury too. Or rotate him with the outfield. with all the money slated to come off after this season they should be setup nicely to target a few top end FAs next fall.
They could get Carlos Santana or Jay Bruce to Dh and play first if Bird gets hurt again. But from a positional flexibility and player happiness level Frazier is still my guy. He can slot at 3rd, 1st, and DH. Bruce has already stated he wants to play OF and Santana is mostly a pure DH that should only play 1b in interleague play to keep his bat in the lineup. I don’t see the Yankees committing any money to the outfield this FA period so Bruce is out. A trade for them would make sense except for the fact all three of the top 3rd basemen on the market are within the division. I see that as a major holdup.
Possible long-term plans at 3B for Yankees:
– Torres
– Other internal option
– Sign Machado or Donaldson as free agents after 2018
All of those ideas are also fully consistent with their stated goal of getting under the luxury tax in 2018 to reset their tax rate. The fact that Headley’s deal is up after 2018 is an overall positive if the Yankees are inclined to sign Machado or Donaldson.
Santana has actually been a good to very good defensive first baseman since at least 2015. That will eventually go away, but not likely quite yet.
I see less flexibility than you on the luxury tax.
First, we need to look at the tax tracker tab at Cot’s ( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ai3Wo4UVZbUFtEEOnVEUwBgh2H45wwNe4nd6bXPAvRQ/pubhtml#) that factors in how luxury tax is calculated (AAV and benefits). That shows $26.7 million of room, so not dramatically different from the $29 million that you say, but a little less.
Ultimately, though, the luxury tax is calculated as of the end of the season based on what a team spends including mid-season acquisitions. A team that truly wants to get under the luxury tax isn’t going to start the season right up against the line, because that precludes adding any salary during the season. I’d back off at least $5 million for the pro-rated salary of mid-season additions, which leaves more like $20 million to spend this off-season (barring any trades that reduce salary).
Does the posting fee count toward the luxury tax?
As I lay out in a comment that I made below, the Yankees realistically have something like $20-23 million of spending room this offseason if they’re committed to staying under the luxury tax. Dave Cameron and the crowd see Lynn or Cobb at about $15 million AAV – a bit higher than Sabathia, actually – so in one sense you might say that’s “not terribly expensive” but it would use up most of the free agent dollars that the Yankees are going to commit this off-season.
So their infield situation to start the season(most likely) is going to be 3b Headley/Anudjar, SS Didi, 2b Castro, 1b Bird/Headley, DH Elsbury/Headley/Andujar?
Unless Torres comes back and goes nuts in spring training he isn’t up till July. Plus he doesn’t even have 250abs at AA or higher. I just don’t like the lack of depth that setup provides. Bird hasn’t shown the ability to be healthy, Elsbury gets dinged up almost every year, and Headley is a wildcard on defense. He can be amazing or trash with the glove. He is also turning 34. I guess they have Tyler Austin if all else fails at 1b. But is that a reserve that a team really wants to bet on in an emergency? Or do they target a guy like Darwin Barney for a year?
The Yankees should really make a concerted effort to give Chad Green another chance at starting (which Cashman has said he will do in spring).
Even when he struggled a bit as a starter in 2016, it was entirely from a really high and unsustainable HR rate. The Ks, BBs, GBs, and BABIP were all good to excellent.
I think Green could easily be a 2 or 3 starter for them.
If Green can be a legitimate 3/4 he’d be a nice addition to that rotation. Question there is how many innings are you going to get out of a guy that threw less than 100 innings last year? They already have a nice 1-3 with Severino, Gray, and Tanaka. So they really only need a couple arms to fill out the rotation and the internal options don’t look that bad with that in mind.
Why do we keep omitting the Rockies from lists of teams that aren’t interested in a third baseman? Nolan Arenado didn’t die, did he?
They aren’t projected to be good enough to want a rental anyway, even if they didn’t have him.
Donaldson’s a great enough player and defensively talented and versatile enough that he makes all 30 teams better. From my following the A’s I think he could probably play SS and most likely corner OF if not all three OF positions. 2B would require learning to turn DPs but he could probably learn that if he had the offseason and spring training. I wouldn’t give up on 2018 yet from the Jays’ perspective but I’d definitely want Donaldson for prospects from any other contender’s perspective.
I think that is incredibly optimistic.
First, he’s going to be 32 in a couple weeks. The only player age 32 or over to even qualify at SS last year was Jose Reyes, and he was average at best defensively. The only one to qualify at SS in 2016 was Alexei Ramirez, who was also terrible on defense.
Erick Aybar and Adam Rosales each got 300+ PA at SS last year at 32 or older, but Donaldson isn’t either of those guys, who were both very good to excellent defenders at SS at some point in their careers.
So SS isn’t going to happen, especially when Donaldson’s defense at third has been gradually decreasing, from otherworldly in 2014 to excellent in 2015 to good in 2016 to average in 2017. Expecting that to change at age 32 is way too optimistic. Maybe he bounces back a little, but not enough to be anything better than below average at shortstop.
Teaching him to turn the double play at 2b at age 32 is also not a good idea. How many third basemen moved to 2b at 32 or older? Any? Corner OF is probably fine, but you would potentially be wasting his defense (assuming he could have bounced back to above average at third).