Time to See if the Royals Will Trade From a Strength

There was precedent for Wade Davis‘ amazing Royals transformation. You could, for example, point to Wade Davis, in 2012. Or you could point to any number of other guys who’ve found comfortable homes in the bullpen after struggling as starters. But a year before Davis turned into an unhittable Royals reliever — that is, the same year that Davis was a very much hittable Royals starter — there was, in the same uniform, Luke Hochevar. Hochevar, for years, was a very mediocre starter. In 2013, he took off in relief, and he projected to be of great help again in 2014, until he blew out his elbow at the start of spring training.

So, Hochevar had Tommy John surgery. And the Royals, famously, didn’t miss him. They rode defense and their bullpen almost all the way to a championship, and then they arrived at more or less the present day. And after paying Hochevar millions of dollars to not pitch in 2014, the Royals are going to pay Hochevar millions of dollars to hopefully pitch in 2015 and beyond. Word’s out that Hochevar has re-signed as a free agent, for two years and $10 million, and now one’s left to wonder what the Royals might do about their roster construction.

Hochevar, today, isn’t even a year removed from his operation. The idea is that, following an ordinary timetable, he could be ready for the start of the next spring training, but we’ve seen enough guys struggle to come back from elbow surgery lately that nothing here is guaranteed. It’s very possible that Hochevar will experience setbacks; it’s very possible he might not even be ready to contribute until the break, or even until the year after. There’s uncertainty here, but the Royals clearly feel good about Hochevar’s rehab process, and as a reminder, here’s what Hochevar was able to do as a reliever in 2013. I’ll show you some stat categories, and then Hochevar’s percentile rank among big-league relievers who threw at least 40 innings.

Stat	Percentile
K%	91%
BB%	76%
K-BB%	93%
ERA-	92%
FIP-	79%
xFIP-	90%
1st-Strike%	96%
Contact%	82%

At the meaningful stuff, Hochevar was very good. He missed bats, he threw early strikes, and he threw later strikes. He only got better as the season went on, and in case you feel like you miss action baseball .gifs, here are some clips of Hochevar from a dominant five-strikeout outing:

Hochevar worked with a fastball around 96, a cutter around 91, and a breaking ball around 80. That sounds a lot like Wade Davis, although Davis’ curveball is sharper, and I think you see where this is going. The Royals right now have last year’s bullpen, plus Luke Hochevar. So, how willing might they be to trade a piece away?

Some facts. For one thing, the Royals would like to contend again in 2015. That’s what you expect of a team that just finished a win shy of taking the World Series. And, of course, the Royals project to have baseball’s best bullpen. Steamer projects them at +5 WAR, and the runner-up’s at 2.9. It seems like the market is very excited about the prospect of available shutdown relief, since both Andrew Miller and David Robertson might end up with four-year contracts. Zach Duke got three guaranteed years after just one year of being productive. And there’s also the matter of the Royals’ needs. They’re short one starting pitcher, and they’re short one DH/RF candidate. A rumor I just saw linked them to Melky Cabrera.

If this were, say, the Red Sox, maybe it wouldn’t be a thing. The Royals aren’t the Red Sox. Last year’s opening-day payroll was just north of $92 million. Right now, the Royals have a 25-man roster that projects to earn just north of $88 million. There’s obviously some room to work with. The Royals made a very deep, very surprising playoff run, and that has significant revenue benefits. Historically, teams that’ve done something like what the Royals did have raised payroll. Next year’s Royals ought to get into nine-figure territory.

But they’re still the Royals, and they’re still presumably going to spend less money than most. If they put about $10 million toward the rotation hole, and another $10 million toward the DH/RF hole, you’d have a payroll close to $110 million. Maybe they’re willing to go that high, but if they wanted more flexibility, Davis and Holland will combine to make something like $16 – 17 million. How important are those pitchers to the Royals, given that Herrera and Hochevar will also be around?

The Royals know how they got where they got. They understand better than anyone how much they leaned on Davis and Holland in the later innings. So there’s going to be loyalty there, and a memory of how critical those pitchers were in the Royals’ best season in decades. On the other hand, other teams also saw how the Royals got so far. The Orioles, too. There’s currently a healthy market for relief pitching, and there hasn’t yet been talk of an available Aroldis Chapman or, say, Craig Kimbrel. How badly do the Royals need to pay Holland $9.3 million? Alternatively, how badly do they need to pay Davis $7 million?

It stands to reason that the Royals would be able to pull good talent back. Miller seems to be holding fast to his four-year contract demand. Robertson has been said to be seeking Jonathan Papelbon money. Holland’s got two years of control, and Davis has three years of club options. Given how dominant they were, the Royals could sell one of them for an immediately helpful piece or two, and because of how bullpen-chaining works, it might not even feel like so big of a loss. Granted, you can’t count on the other relievers to remain healthy and effective, but, the same goes for whichever reliever the Royals would elect to trade away.

Every team understands that relievers can be unreliable. Given the Miller and Robertson markets, teams are either willing to look past that, or they’re willing to make exceptions for the elite. Holland and Davis are elite. They’re of great value to the Royals, but the Royals don’t seem like a team that should have tens of millions of dollars occupying the bullpen. That’s a heavy investment in a volatile area, and such depth is a luxury, not a necessity. I’m not saying a great trade would be out there, but it seems like one could be, and Dayton Moore would be doing his team a disservice if he didn’t at least have some conversations.

Perhaps the Royals keep things as they are. Hochevar’s an unknown. As is, even if one of the big four were to get hurt, the Royals would have three good relievers remaining. Maybe the Royals want to wait to see how Hochevar pitches before they deal an arm elsewhere. But then, it would be tougher to stomach losing Holland or Davis once the season’s underway. There could be an opportunity right now. The Royals have by far the best bullpen in the league. How much of the best bullpen do they need?