Top 13 Prospects: Miami Marlins

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Miami Marlins farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on thes 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)

55 FV Prospects

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
None. Didn’t pitch during season after signing.

Scouting Report
I had some issues with the effort in Garrett’s delivery during his summer showcase appearances and didn’t think he got out over his front side consistently. By his senior spring, those issues had evaporated and Garrett became one of the better prep arms available in the 2016 draft. He’s an excellent barometer for what a top-15 prep lefty looks like: 90-93 with a plus-flashing curveball and an arm action/athleticism that allows for projection on the command and changeup, both of which Garrett has already shown in spurts.

Garrett’s upper-70s curveball can miss bats in the zone and below it, he’s shown an ability to locate it to the back foot of right-handed hitters, and it projects to plus. His changeup flashes whiff-inducing fade and some think it will be his best pitch at maturity.

Despite his measureables, Garrett lacks much physical projection, and it’s unlikely he’ll add much more velocity as he ages, but he’ll be fine with a low-90s fastball. He projects as a good No. 3 starter and he’s relatively advanced, which should allow him to move pretty quickly.

45 FV Prospects

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Slashed .265/.348/.389 across two levels in 2016.

Scouting Report
Anderson was impressive on both sides of the ball in the Fall League. He has a plus arm (as measured by strength, although accuracy is sometimes an issue) and passable defensive footwork; he’s comfortable charging slow rollers on the grass and has good lateral range. He’s not especially polished there, certainly not for his age, but 2016 was the first time in Anderson’s career that he didn’t see reps at second base, and we’ve seen things click late for other prospects at third base. So, while I have Anderson projected to average there, I think there’s a chance for more than that.

Offensively, Anderson is pull-happy, but he has good bat speed, above-average raw power, and can drive pitches in the top of the strike zone. He doesn’t have the sort of barrel control that allows him to lift balls in the bottom of the zone but, even on ground balls and line drives, the contact is hard. I think big-league pitchees will be able to limit his power output by hammering the bottom of the zone, but he’ll punish mistakes.

Anderson has above-average speed (I got some plus times during the AFL, too), which I think will aid a fringey contact profile, and some would like to see him tried in center field because they consider the bat to be a little short for third base. I think it’s fine and that he’s going to be a second-division regular there.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.9 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
None. Didn’t pitch (Tommy John Surgery).

Scouting Report
We’re waiting to see how much of what made Kolek the second-overall pick in 2014 is still extant after he returns from Tommy John this year. He was touching 100 with a hammer curveball at Area Code tryouts in 2013 and, while his velocity held firm, his breaking-ball quality waned as the draft approached. (He had started tinkering.) The body went backward, and scouts were growing concerned about the violence in his delivery.

Then, in pro ball, Kolek started struggling to miss bats and throw strikes (the latter was expected, at least initially) throughout both of his pro seasons. He looked much better, physically, but his fastball was sitting more 93-96 (still good) and his secondary stuff was very inconsistent. He had TJ later in the spring of 2016 and probably won’t be back until May or June of 2017. The upside here (upper-90s, plus curve, and some sort of viable offspeed pitch) is high, but the risk is enormous, even independent of injury.

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
None. Played just 19 GCL games after signing.

Scouting Report
Jones is raw (a pervasive characteristic in this system) and was old for a high-school draftee (turning 19 in December) which, along with a hamstring injury, played a role in his fall to the third round of last June’s draft. He was coaxed away from a Vanderbilt commitment with a $1 million bonus. He’s a plus runner with remarkable physical projection and looks like he has room to add another 30 pounds to his frame as he matures. With that weight should come power, though adjustments will be required of Jones’ swing in order for him to harness it, starting with improved hand separation.

It’s hard to say how much speed Jones will retain as his body fills out and whether or not he’ll be able to remain in center field. He takes long, graceful strides and is arguably a 70 runner underway, so even if he loses a full grade he should be fine. If he does have to move, however, it’s probably to left field because of a fringe-average arm. He’s displayed surprisingly good breaking-ball recognition for a two-sport athlete (he was an excellent free-safety prospect at Laurens as well), and he has above-average bat speed. Reports on Jones’ makeup are strong, and I’m optimistic about him making the necessary adjustments either to hit or produce power, and I think there’s a non-zero chance he does both (though, for hitters with this physical makeup, power before hit is most likely and is what I have projected). He’s a potential star and, while the Marlins haven’t had much success at developing prospects like this lately, I think he’s the most talented among them.

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Posted just 5% walk rate in 2016.

Scouting Report
Cabrera got just $100K on the 2015 international market but was sitting 90-94 last summer and flashing a plus slider. He has at least enough physical projection that he should maintain that velocity under a heavier workload (he only made seven starts last year) moving forward, and he throws enough strikes to start. Cabrera’s fastball movement was inconsistent last year (which is largely why he didn’t miss bats and why I have the fastball graded below its raw velo for now), and scouts would like to see him strengthen his lower half and generally get a little bigger to show he can handle a season’s worth of innings in affiliated ball. That’s before they start worrying about things like changeup development, sequencing, and other finer points of pitching. He’s a long way off but, just on velo, size and feel for spin, he’s a potential mid-rotation starter and, after Garrett, Cabrera arguably has the most intriguing realistic upside in the system.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.8 WAR

40 FV Prospects

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded just 3.7% walk rate in 20 High-A starts.

Scouting Report
Peters was commanding 91-94 late in 2016 and missing bats with it, an encouraging sign after he struggled in short-season ball in 2015 following his return from Tommy John. He’s short but sturdily built, and his body and delivery have improved since college.

Peters’ secondary stuff is fringey. He has a fringe two-plane curveball he uses heavily to both left- and right-handed hitters. Peters keeps the pitch down in the zone consistently, it flashes average, and should at least mature there. His changeup is below average but, again, Peters locates it quite well and I think the pitch has a good bit of projection left based on Peters’ arm action and the lack of reps the pitch has gotten due to injury. I have it projected, aggressively, to average.

Peters allowed two earned runs over his final 30 innings at High-A, then pitched well enough for a month at Double-A to earn a non-roster invite to big-league camp. Some think he has a chance to reach the majors this year. I consider that unlikely (the changeup needs to progress and Peters only has seven pro plate appearances) but, long term, I think he’s a solid back-end rotation piece. Some are concerned about the durability because of his size; his injury history obviously adds to that concern.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.0 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Steamer projects 4.48 FIP in majors for 2017.

Scouting Report
Garcia has the requisite strike-throwing ability to start but his violent delivery has many projecting him in the bullpen, including moi. He missed three months with a triceps injury in 2016. He was 92-95 out of the bullpen for me in the Fall League with a plus, mid-80s changeup and fringe to average, vertically breaking slider in the 83-85 range. He’s a solid middle-relief prospect, and he has advocates who think his repertoire depth could allow for high-leverage work.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.6 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 26% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate in 2016.

Scouting Report
Stocky and strong, Soto has plus bat speed and raw power and can hit balls out to all fields. He expands the zone too often and his swing is effortful and somewhat violent, so scouts have questions about his hit utility. His breaking-ball recognition, especially against lefties, is poor, and there’s concern that he won’t hit enough to profile in right field (he has at least a 60 arm) or that he’s just a platoon bat. Despite the effort in the swing, Soto moves the barrel around the hitting zone pretty well, and I think he’ll hit enough to reach the majors. It’s a stereotypical right-field toolset on an atypical body, and I have Soto projected as a fringey regular with a half grade backed out of his FV due to risk as, in addition to the Ks, Soto has dealt with several injuries (including a meniscus tear in 2015 and Achilles tendinitis in 2016) during the last two seasons, as well.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 1.1 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Produced just .090 ISO in nearly 500 plate appearances.

Scouting Report
Riddle saw time at all four infield spots and (barely) both outfield corners last year and his future is likely as a multi-positional utility man because, while he does have solid contact skills, the bat is too light for everyday duty, even at shortstop. Riddle has fringey bat speed, but he tracks pitches well, IDs breaking balls and has solid bat control. He does most of his damage to his pull side and projects as an average hitter. He lacks power (mostly due to the bat speed), which might hamper his ability to reach base in the majors, but he’s an above-average runner. As long as he puts the ball in play as often as he does right now, he’ll be worth rostering.

Riddle has good range and is athletic enough to force his average arm to play on the left side of the infield. He’s been playing at various spots on the infield since college, and he’s viable right now at second, third and short, and I think it’s fine to speculate that, with a little bit of work, he’ll be fine in either outfield corner, too.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.9 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 51% ground-ball rate, per MLBfarm.com.

Scouting Report
Poteet’s 88-92 mph fastball (he was up to 94 for me in college and 96 in high school) is aided by his deceptive overhand delivery and above-average spin rates. His best two secondaries are an upper-70s curveball and mid-80s slider; both are above average, though the curveball will flash plus. The quaternary standing of Poteet’s changeup leaves him a bit vulnerable against left-handed hitters right now, but his breaking balls are good enough that, if he can learn to locate them more regularly, he won’t have excessive platoon issues. He has below-average command in games right now. His delivery is efficient and Poteet gets the most out of his modest frame, but there’s some effort here. Not the kind that worries scouts about potential injury, necessarily, but the kind that hinders ability to locate consistently. I think there’s viable starter strike-throwing ability here, but doubt pinpoint command is imminent. He projects as a back-end starter for me, which is an excellent outcome for a fourth-round pick.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.6 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Hit .151 after returning from surgery.

Scouting Report
Garrett is limited to left field due to below-average arm strength, but he has the power to profile there if he can find a way to tap into it consistently. He showed glimpses of it in 2015 and early in 2016 before he was stabbed in the thumb by then-teammate Josh Naylor in what the club described as a “prank gone wrong.” He needed surgery, missed about two months, and only had two-extra base hits after returning.

Garrett’s once high and deep load has shortened up enough that it has allowed some of his natural strength to play, but he’s still quite stiff and likely to have career-long swing-and-miss issues. This will be acceptable if Garrett can lift the ball consistently, but his bat path isn’t conducive to that and it may take further adjustments to get him there. I think the ceiling here is a power-first platoon bat, assuming the power comes back this year.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.6 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Stole 50 bases at 75% success rate in 2016.

Scouting Report
A 70 runner entirely devoid of power, Perez is passable in center field because of his speed and can play both middle-infield spots in a pinch if needed (though I prefer him in center). He seems to know that taking what pitchers offer him and putting the ball in play, either down the lines or in the gaps, represents his best chance of doing anything impactful offensively, and he doesn’t overswing to try to produce power. Neither of his swings is especially pretty (he’s very stationary and cautious), but he has better bat control from the right side. He’s a fourth-outfielder and pinch-running prospect.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.3 WAR

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 36% strikeout rate across three levels in 2016.

Scouting Report
Steckenrider’s 93-96 mph fastball moves, is deceptively easy and has reached 100 mph. He has an average, low-80s curveball that features 12-6 movement. Scouts who saw him in the Fall League (I kept missing him) think the lack of a knockout secondary pitch means he’s ticketed for middle relief rather than a high-leverage role,but that fastball alone makes him likely to provide some big-league value. He had Tommy John in 2013 (it was an odd one), so there’s some added injury risk here.

*****

*****

Other Prospects of Note (In Order of Preference)

Humberto Mejia, RHP, 1.4 KATOH+ WAR – A projectable Panamanian righty with good curveball feel and a fastball that plays up due to extension, Mejia sits 90-92, will touch 94 and his high three-quarters slot allows him to generate plane on the fastball and useful spin on the curve.

James Nelson, 3B – The Red Sox drafted Nelson out of high school in the 18th round of the 2014 draft, but he opted to attend Cisco College in Texas instead. The Marlins drafted him in the 15th round the next year and signed him for $75,000. He’s a plus runner with a plus arm but lacks the actions and athleticism for short, so he spent the 2016 GCL season at third base. He has plus bat speed and a projectable frame but the swing is very long and needs significant polish, not just to unlock the power Nelson will need to play a corner spot (though one evaluator would like him tried in center) but just to keep hitting, in general.

Brett Lilek, LHP – Lilek was inconsistent as a junior at Arizona State. When he was good, though, he looked like a solid big leaguer, sitting 89-92 and touching 94 with an average slider and curveball. He struggled to start 2016 and was shut down with shoulder tendinitis. He’s been working out in the Dominican Republic during the offseason. He projected as a No. 4/5 starter ahead of the injury.

Austin Nola, C, 0.8 KATOH+ – A former utility-infield prospect, Nola is converting to catcher and his journey began in the 2016 Fall League. He didn’t play enough for scouts to have an opinion on his glove there, but Nola is a high-end makeup guy and solid athlete with a compact build, exactly the type of player scouts or player dev personnel identify for conversion if there isn’t an alternative path to the big leagues. We can only wait and see if Nola takes to catching. If he does, and can continue to make contact at a decent rate, he’ll be a backup.

Tayron Guerrero, RHP, 0.5 KATOH+ – As always, Guerrero has interesting stuff, sitting in the mid-90s with a fastball that lacks movement and an inconsistent mid-80s slider that will flash plus. He struggles to keep the parts of his delivery working together with any kind of regularity and has well below-average command as a result. He’s a 26-year-old middle-relief prospect.

John Norwood, OF, 0.2 KATOH+ – Norwood went undrafted as a junior at Vanderbilt and then went to the Cape and hit well enough that the Marlins offered him $275,000 as an undrafted free agent and he signed. He has above-average raw pull power and takes big, pull-heavy cuts in games that lead to lots of strikeouts. Scouts view him as a potential power-first bench option but want to see him deal with upper-level breaking balls before committing to any sort of big-league projection.

Justin Twine, 2B, 0.0 KATOH+ – Twine had an offer to play football at Baylor (the high-school highlights here are fun), but he escaped potential brain trauma by signing with Miami for a cool $1.3 million as a second-round pick in 2014. He’s a thick-necked 5-foot-11, 205, and is a plus runner with plus raw power. His skills are wholly unrefined, most evident in the batter’s box where Twine struggles to make contact. He showed considerable improvement repeating Low-A and is worth monitoring because his physical skills are so prodigious, but he’s a low-probability prospect.

Andy Beltre, RHP – Beltre has had multiple Tommy Johns and only threw 17 total innings from 2013 to 2015. He was back in 2016 and was 94-plus with his fastball, touching 99 with an above-average slider and a new, higher arm slot. He went unpicked in the Rule 5 draft. If this guy stays healthy, he’s too low on this list.

Samuel Castro, SS, 0.2 KATOH+ – A twitchy, strong and fast teenage Dominican shortstop who played all year as an 18-year old in the New York-Penn League, Castro is sushi raw at the plate but will show you glimpses of viability and even some power potential from the left side. He’s a project and, as a switch-hitter, there are two swings to iron out here, so it may take a while if it comes together at all.

Sean Reynolds, OF – I had Reynolds, Miami’s fourth rounder from 2016, filed away as a pitching prospect ahead of the draft. He’s huge, a lanky 6-foot-7, and struck out excessively in his pro debut, but his swing isn’t all that long for someone this size. Instead, Reynolds’ struggles with hand-eye and bat control. He’s a power-first flier. If things don’t work out with the bat, the Marlins could always stick him back on the mound and see what happens. He was touching 92 as a senior in high school.

Jake Esch, RHP, 0.4 KATOH+ – Esch got a cup of coffee in the big leagues last year and was mostly 87-92 with an inconsistent mid-80s slider. It flashes above average but is inconsistent. Esch has a below-average changeup and curveball and features average command. He’s a Triple-A depth arm.

James Buckelew, LHP, 0.2 KATOH+ – Buckelew was 90-94 throughout the Fall League with an above-average, low-80s curveball. It’s a very vertical arm slot, so this isn’t a typical lefty relief prospect, but I think he has a chance to carve out a big-league role in a bullpen.

Jeff Brigham, RHP, 0.4 KATOH+ – Brigham has been tough to nail down as a pro. In some outings he looks like a viable big leaguer; in others, he looks like a total non-prospect. He was up to 95 for me in the Fall League with an above-average slider in the 83-86 range and a fringey changeup. It’s a below-average build and stiff delivery which, combined with his injury history (he had TJ in college), point toward the bullpen.

Matt Juengel, DH, 1.4 KATOH+ – Juengel has plus raw power and gets to it in games with a big uppercut swing and equally dramatic and well timed leg kick. He lacks a position and is 27 years old, but I think he could make for an interesting short-term bench bat.

John Silviano, C – Silviano was drafted out of high school by Toronto in 2012, was released in 2014 and then went to college at Lynn University (not sure how that was allowed to be a thing but it was) where he hit 31 homers and had a nearly 1.500 OPS. He then signed with Miami and hit for some power (he has above-average raw) at Low-A. He also has a plus arm.

Garvis Lara, SS – Lara runs well enough to play short, has a plus arm and good defensive actions, but he’s so raw offensively that he may never hit enough to reach the big leagues. He has a utility-man ceiling.

Javier Garcia, RHP – A mature-bodied, 18-year-old, low-slot righty with an above-average fastball and flashing slider, Garcia needs the changeup, currently below average, to improve significantly if he’s going to start long term. The stiffness in the delivery and length to the arm action are not indicative of such development.

Austin Dean, LF, 0.5 KATOH+ – Dean’s tumble down the defensive spectrum makes it difficult to project him even as a fourth outfielder despite solid contact skills. He’s a 40 runner and doesn’t play center field for me.

Jose Quijada, LHP – Quijada’s a portly 6-foot, low-slot lefty with an average fastball that plays up due to deception and a big, looping two-plane slider. Scouts are concerned his stuff may not play against righties as he moves up the ladder. It follows that he projects as a LOOGY.

Jarett Rindfleisch, C – An intense competitor, Rindfleisch has above-average raw power and a plus arm but a high-maintenance body that may limit his mobility behind the plate as he ages. He also has some bat-to-ball issues that may not allow the power to play.

Mike Garzillo, 2B – A plus runner with average raw power, Garzillo went ballistic against Navy during the 2015 Patriot League tournament but there are concerns about how a small school (Lehigh) prospect like this will deal with pro pitching.

Gunner Pollman, C – A good-bodied, athletic catch-and-throw prospect, Pollman’s bat is light and scouts speculate that, if he struggles to hit in pro ball, his future may be on the mound.

Cistulli’s Guy
Selected by Carson Cistulli from any player who received less than a 40 FV.
Peter Mooney, SS/2B, 0.7 KATOH+
Mooney appeared among the Fringe Five this past May. At that point in the season, he’d recorded a higher walk rate than strikeout rate and produced an isolated-power figure roughly 30 points higher than the Southern League average. While he nearly preserved the former of those notable distinctions, he didn’t even really approximate the latter. Southern League batters ultimately recorded a collective .114 ISO. Mooney’s final mark? A .075 figure. Which is to say, more than 30 points fewer than league average.

If Mooney possesses something less than average power, it’s not wholly surprising. He’s listed alternately at 5-foot-6 and 5-foot-8 — and, in neither case, at more than 170 pounds. He’s played an average shortstop throughout his minor-league tenure, though, and (as mentioned) makes contact at a distinctly above-average rate. His 2016 season was impressive for a player who passed the 2015 campaign in the independent Can-Am League.

*****

System Overview

Part of the reason this system is so poor right now is because, over the last seven months, Miami has traded away about a half-dozen prospects who would have made the main portion of this list. That was clearly done in effort to compete for a playoff spot and, based on projections for the upcoming season, it looks like that effort isn’t altogether foolhardy, if also somewhat optimistic. Had Jose Fernandez not met his tragic and untimely end, they’d probably be in the thick of preseason Wild Card discussion. Alas.

They’ve also failed to do much with their early-round draft picks. Andrew Heaney, Josh Naylor and Colin Moran were all traded away; Matt Krook didn’t sign; and none of the raw, high-upside athletes Miami has drafted up top have developed. The club should add two 50-plus FV prospects in this year’s draft (they pick 13, 36 and again at 51) and have picks in places that could allow them to get creative with their draft pool.