Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Welcome to Sawchik Chat VI, let’s talk …

baby bull : are you a believer in 4 win Odubel Herrera?

Travis Sawchik: After back-to-back 4-win seasons, I suppose we all should be

Curtis: If Gary Sanchez floats a .270/25/80 line this year at C, what percentage of people will be disappointed?

Travis Sawchik: Probably far too many … But Yankees should be very pleased if that happens along with solid defense

Guest: What do you think about Cody Bellinger?

Travis Sawchik: Love the swing, production is there, too … really like the player

GianMarlo Stanfield: Braves over under at 71.5 I believe, what side you on?

Travis Sawchik: I’m slightly over for 2017 (73-75 wins) with great things ahead in the not-too-distant future. Lot of arms in that system along with the shortstops

CamdenWarehouse: In your experience, how dead is the win in front offices, coaching staffs, and the player ranks?

Travis Sawchik: Very dead in front offices, getting closer to death in coaching offices, and still alive amidst the player ranks

Erik: If you ran a rebuilding club, roughly how many roster spots would you give to unimpressive veterans as opposed to unproven young players? Where do you draw the line between needed some solidity and veteran leadership but also not taking at bats away from players who need them to develop?

Travis Sawchik: Interesting topic since there are so many ‘meh’ veteran FAs available late in the winter these days … I’d want enough veterans to not rush any prospects, and to delay the service clocks of the elite prospects …. And in this market I might rather add an extra vet or two for cheap in hopes of flipping at the deadline

Keegan: Do you like Shelby Miller for this year?

Travis Sawchik: I like Miller in the sense that things can’t go that badly again, can they? He was a really good pitcher from 2013-15. He’s 26. He’s a good buy-low, buy-cheaply picks in fantasy leagues

Tom: What are your thoughts on switching .avg for .OPS in a standard 5×5 league?

Travis Sawchik: How about OBP?

Sonny: Did you find any Spring Training narratives or tropes (best shape of his life as ex #1) had more or less weight on a player/teams performance? Early strong reports on a prospect or the effect of a new position coach, etc

Travis Sawchik: I’m always curious in arms that are adding a new pitch …and how top prospects perform. Kris Bryant might have accelerated his timetable by a couple months in 2015

Jorge de la Rosa: Where do I land?

Travis Sawchik: Not sure…but if you land somewhere as a reliever, as Dave Cameron suggested as a fit last week, that could be an interesting role and add for a team

Jonathan: Are the Dodgers going to be playing it loose with what qualifies as “injuries” to their roster in order to be flexible with the depth of players they’ve amassed? is there anything really that prevents teams from doing that in general?

Travis Sawchik: Teams use the DL as a roster-manipulation tool often … and there is little that prevents a team from doing so

Chris: Who are some current average regulars that could benefit from the Rich Hill theory. I think of Matt Shoemaker going to like 50% splitters last year. Any other pitchers who you think would have great success from a change like Hill

Travis Sawchik: Aaron Nola is hardly average, but he’s a guy I suggested could benefit from the Hill model. Collin McHugh, too. Guys with great curveballs that perhaps could go from good to great with more CB usage

Rich : Dynasty league looking for future impact player 2-3 years. Bellinger- Brinson Giolito? Thanks

Travis Sawchik: I’d go with the bats in Bellinger and Brinson

soaktherich: Is there a Brazilian baseball league? Seems like a sleeping giant of future MLB talent that could surpass the DR/Cuba and Japan/Korea. What about China?

Travis Sawchik: http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/baseball-in-brazil-next-big-thing-mlb-yan-gomes-paulo-orlando-andre-rienzo-092415

Connor: Most surprising playoff team?

Travis Sawchik: What if the Rockies are actually good? They’re my favorite dark horse team, though it’s tough path

Josiah: Thoughts on the Dodgers adding Utley and Gutierrez over the weekend?

Travis Sawchik: They might be the best team in MLB and they just become a little better. I like the adds

Dabo Dabo Sweeney: Hey Travis – have loved your addition to FG so far. Talk to me about Jameson Taillon since you may be rather familiar. Eno has made quite a bit of reference to his lack of 3rd pitch, but its tough to argue when a guy has a K/BB ratio as good as Taillon. Does he make the next step to become a real ace and get close to the 200 IP mark? Does he usurp Cole as the Pirates ace this year?

Travis Sawchik: Hey Dabo, congrats on the big win ….. Taillon’s change seems like just an OK pitch, he did add the two-seamer last year which generated quite a few ground balls. He has the great curveball, and perhaps he should also adopt the Rich Hill Plan since he might not have a natural feel for the changeup

CubFan: With Carter signed does Bird need a good ST to secure the starting job at 1B or do you think Giradi is willing to give him alot of rope?

Travis Sawchik: I

Travis Sawchik: ‘m guessing but I think Bird still gets a lot of rope

Travis Sawchik: Carter will find at-bats

Dres : Constant twitter updates: good for hot stove, or TMI?

Travis Sawchik: Both? I like using Twitter’s search tool for info

Alex: Would the proposed 26th roster spot be used for more platoon bats or relievers?

Travis Sawchik: Case by case, but I would suspect more relievers

Paul: Austin Hedges only has to be league average offensively to be a good catcher, right? Any chance his PCL explosion last year is partially real?

Travis Sawchik: Jeff wrote some interesting things about this very subject last week http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/austin-hedges-learned-how-to-hit/

Travis Sawchik: If he’s really learned how to hit, that’s a valuable player

Trainman1986: Should the Mets sign Wieters? I know d’Arnaud is there but last year had a down year

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think Wieters wants to back-up anyone but we’re seeing how teams are valuing framing. Wieters’ other big problem is he just hasn’t hit: 88 wRC+ last season

Travis Sawchik: That 2009 PECOTA projection was a heart-breaker

Trainman1986: The headline Noah Syndergaard wants to throw harder this year, while enticing to me as a Mets fan still gives me concern with those bone chips in the elbow. Am i being too much of a worry wart, or should I be pumped for more Thor Lightning this year?

Travis Sawchik: I read that, too, and had a similar thought. I don’t think Thor needs to throw any harder. I’m planning a post on this very subject

baby bull : Pirates key to winning wild card is Cutch bounce back or Pitching bounce back (Taillon, Glasnow, Cole, bullpen)

Travis Sawchik: Pitching

Matt: How vast is your knowledge of Roman numerals? Will you be able to continue numbering you chat at this time next year?

Travis Sawchik: My knowledge extends to X

El Duderino: Are you a fantasy baseball ‘expert’?

Travis Sawchik: I play, I am interested, but I wouldn’t say expert. I do not devote my time exclusively to the hobby

v2micca: So, how badly did the Reds want to get rid of Phillips? They are eating the majority of his contract and trading him for a bag of baseballs. Where they concerned about him being a clubhouse issue with his reduced playing time?

Travis Sawchik: Reds have been trying to rid themselves of Phillips for some time. I think that says something beyond contract/production

Blue Morpho: What was the purpose of signing Eovaldi this year? Do the Rays have a special rehab program for him?

Travis Sawchik: They have a 2018 option, and maybe they can teach him a changeup

Hank: How do you see Bruce/Conforto situation playing out? Even if the Mets can’t get rid of Bruce, what’s the harm in starting Conforto instead if he’s actually the better player?

Travis Sawchik: Conforto needs regular at-bats … lot of upside there, according to Statcast

Justin: Over/under on Jean Segura’s WAR this year being 3.5?

Travis Sawchik: Under. His 2016 was BABIP heavy

El Duderino: So, it seems like a lot of people love the Chris Carter signing, but, will he play? Greg Bird and Austin (I guess Austin could be sent down) at 1B, Holiday at DH and Carter will not touch the OF.

Travis Sawchik: Yankees have to figure that out but Carter will get his at-bats somehow/somewhere

Curtis: Who leads the Dodgers in HR this year?

Travis Sawchik: Turner with Grandal as a sleeper candidate

Travis Sawchik: Swing with an uppercut, kids

baby bull : .283/.338/.440 is steamers projection for Benintendi.. over or under on that .780ops?

Travis Sawchik: I’m over, especially with the home park

MPP: Wow just looked at Marlins system , very weak and not much to show from their average trades…… What type of career do you see Tim Anderson having? Do he stay at SS?

Travis Sawchik: Marlins obviously have some great young position players but with that system, along with the tragic death of Fernandez, it feels like their window is closing

Erik: Do we know enough about catcher defense now to say with some confidence how important each aspect (framing, blocking, throwing, and game calling) matters compared to the others? The recent emphasis on framing, both in the media and in the contracts given to strong framers compared to strong throwers, seems to suggest that the majority of of a catcher’s defense value comes from there alone. Is that true, or is it being overemphasized since it’s the latest fad?

Travis Sawchik: Arm could be becoming relatively undervalued, particularly the deterrence affect in the run the game. And if the gap between the good- and poor-framing teams continues (or we get robot umps) the premium on arms will go up

Blue Morpho: Bauer is only listed for 136 IP on the Indians’ depth chart. Why so low?

Travis Sawchik: Even with the drone risk, that seems low … since he’s surpassed it each of the last three seasons. But you always have to build in injury and performance risk

JC: I’ve always thought of McCutchen as a sort of understated superstar, who perhaps had less flash than a lot of similarly-talented players. Last year I wondered if maybe he has an effort problem. What say you, having been around him?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think it was an effort problem

Randall Simon: Remember when Steve Lyons pulled down his pants at first base? That was funny, huh?

Travis Sawchik: That was something.

Eric: How strictly do you think the Dodgers will manage Urias’ innings and what tyoe

Travis Sawchik: I would imagine there will be a conservative approach

NatsFan: Are you at all nervous about the lack of an established Nats closer? Haven’t sabermetric thought watered down the idea that a collection of good bulllpen arms will suddenly be terrible because one person hasn’t collected enough of an arbitrary statistic?

Travis Sawchik: I’m not. But the Nats seem to be (like most teams, they could use more relief help)

baby bull : who do you think becomes the better player, Meadows or Bellinger?

Travis Sawchik: Meadows because of the glove and position on defensive spectrum

Jonathan: Your favorite ballpark? Your favorite ballpark food item?

Travis Sawchik: I haven not been to all 30 but my top five: Wrigley, PNC Park, (no bias, great park) AT&T, Dodger Stadium, Petco …. I don’t get around the concession stands much. SF’s garlic fries get a lot of hype. They’re OK

Kiermaier’s Engaged Green Eyes: The Rays had an opening at 1B, a need for a good righty bat, and faced a market of available power bats like Carter and Park. And they came out with LoMo? Is there any hope left of being able to do better than LoMo/Franklin/Beckham filling in on the infield every day?

Travis Sawchik: I think the Rays have their Opening Day infield set. I understand why some preferred Carter or Napoli over LoMo… . But, overall, I really like the Rays’ offseason. I love the De Leon pick up for them

Sean: How do you order the AL East, as a Jay’s fan whose our biggest threat to a wildcard; Yankees, Orioles, or the Rays (I expect a lot from Tampa Bay for some reason)

Travis Sawchik: I think it’s the most difficult division to figure out after Boston… FanGraphs has the Orioles finishing in last place and they were in the postseason last year

Hillary: Will Didi Gregorious be able to hit 20 HR again? More?

Travis Sawchik: I want someone to do an independent measurement of the dimensions at New Yankee…fences seem awfully close

ohioastrosfan: First time playing fantasy baseball this year, it’s a roto style. I’m pretty knowledgeable on advanced stats and most players. Any tips?

Travis Sawchik: When in doubt, take the younger player

Sam: Zips has Miguel Sano projected for .235/.324/.471 with 26 HR’s. I must be greatly overrating Sano, because I think this seems very low for him. Do you forsee a Sano breakout, or are the Zips about right in your eyes?

Travis Sawchik: I foresee 35 HRs, with health, and .820ish OPS

Phantastic: if you’re building a winner from the bottom up with the upcoming FA classes, what do you emphasize in your Minor leagues? Pitching or Bats?

Travis Sawchik: Tough to argue with what the Cubs have done, position players should be more stable and less injury-prone, but they also have the financial resources to fill in rotation voids

DTH: If they’re out of it at the deadline, would Arizona look to trade Greinke already? And if so, what does the trade look like? Mostly salary relief with a few minor prospects, or would Arizona eat a lot of money to try to get a decent piece and restock the farm?

Travis Sawchik: Possible, sure. If ownership is willing, big if, I’d try to eat as much salary as possible to maximize return

BirdBall: The Yankees and W. Sox both have “drastically” improved their farm systems, but how much of a difference is there between an elite system like the Yankees/Braves, an Average System like the Rockies and a “barren” system like the Angels? How much in Millions would the Angels pay to have the Braves system as an example?

Travis Sawchik: Significant gaps … not sure about dollar value … but nine figures

Big Cheese: Do the Jays sign Pagan or one of the Bullpen arms remaining like Wood/Blanton/Etc? Or do you think they are content to start the season as is?

Travis Sawchik: Jays would do well to add. That AL wild card race looks like a potential logjam

Matt: This morning, RotoGraphs released fantasy OF rankings. Benintendi was somewhere around the mid-40s. Is this a standard example of level-setting expectations, or is more of his value tied up in defense than I had initially expected?

Travis Sawchik: Probably a measure to curb enthusiasm, a lot of rookies struggle to meet expectations and justify dollars bid in auction drafts. But Benintendi looks like an exception, to me

Sandy Kazmir: Here’s a good look at top-100 prospect rankings by team using the Point of Pittsburgh surplus values: http://theprocessreport.net/the-top-100s-are-coming-the-top-100s-are-coming/

Travis Sawchik: Should Angels pay $280 million for Braves’ farm system?

Burny: How many Chris Sale type packages of prospects is Mike Trout worth? I think 3.

Travis Sawchik: 2.5. But who has that system? (The Braves)

YKnotDisco?!: Is there anyone with more pressure heading into the MLB 2017 season than Joe Davis?

Travis Sawchik: Ha. I met Joe when he was doing ESPN 360 games, incredible rise

Hank: It seems like Joe Blanton would be a great fit for the Cubs. But, it also seems like Joe Blanton would be a great fit for every team in majors. Where do you think Blanton will sign?

Travis Sawchik: Why is Joe Blanton still unsigned? I’d like him for Cubs, I’d like him for about all 30 MLB teams

John: Is Greinke even tradeable? His contract is outrageous, and a small to mid market team usually can’t afford to eat salaries.

Travis Sawchik: Arizona would have to eat a lot of money, one would think ….. but they signed on to pay for it, so hypothetically they should be able to cover the majority of it

Erik: Would it be a significant positive for the growth of baseball if the MLB convinced all its stars to go to the WBC and then market it heavily? Seems to me that more kids would be drawn to baseball by rooting for a home team filled with Trout, Harper, etc. than any of the pace of play proposals I’ve seen recently. Also, it’s hard to crown a world champion of baseball in a tournament where Mike Trout isn’t participating.

Travis Sawchik: WBC has some growth opportunity for sure, but it comes at an awkward point in the season. Might it make more sense to have it played in the middle of the season and have the game shut down for, say, two weeks and no All-Star game?

Erik: So should the Angels offer Mike Trout for the Braves entire farm system? Who hangs up first?

Travis Sawchik: Braves, and Braves call back and counter by asking for two Trouts.

Hank: Jose Bautista bounce back this year? He seemed to struggle solely due to injury last year. When healthy, he raked.

Travis Sawchik: I like Bautista’s bat to be better in 2017, he was also unlucky last season. He still made a lot of quality contact

Scott of Linconshire: Let’s talk about health. How far are teams pushing the HIPPA rules to try to get into genetic testing in order to try to gain some sort of advantage over other teams in predicting/preventing future injuries? I’ll hang up and listen for your answer!

Travis Sawchik: Genetic testing/data is going to be a big story line at some point later this century for MLB/MLB players.. how much later, I’m not sure

Guilliume: Would you rather have a #1 pick or a #10 & #20 pick?

Travis Sawchik: 1. Better odds for a franchise player

Erik: Interesting comment on Yankee stadium’s fences. Are teams obligated to report accurate dimensions to the league?

Travis Sawchik: Good question. I believe MLB demands that certain depths are met in new ballpark construction

andrew: Would Zach Britton gotten 90MM this offseason?

Travis Sawchik: I believe so, at least close to it

Raindog: The depth charts have the Orioles giving 350 PA at DH to Christian Walker / Trey Mancini, and another 192 PA at C to Caleb Joseph. As a win now team, it actually wouldn’t be so crazy for them to sign Wieters at this point, would it?

Travis Sawchik: A return to BAL probably makes some sense for both parties, especially since BAL has a better handle on whatever intangibles Wieters provides

Zac: You stated that you loved the De Leon pickup for the Rays. Is that because you expect big things from him, or was Forsythe just that expendable for the Rays?

Travis Sawchik: I love getting that control over a young, talented arm for what was a short-term asset in Forsythe, and the Rays had a number of competent 2B replacement candidates internally. Plus the Rays love changeups, and that’s De Leon’s pitch

CatDog: If King Felix comes back and has a 5 win year can the mariners win the west or are they too far behind the stros?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t have a lot of confidence in King Felix being King Felix again

Donovan!: Do you foresee an end to blackout restrictions on game broadcasts? I’m an Orioles fan living in the Ray’s “territory,” and those few games per year that I have to watch the Orioles on cable are entirely insufferable. Sorry, Rays fans, but your announcers are dull and outright annoying.

Travis Sawchik: I think so. Let’s get the product, and varieties of it, to more people that want it

Totes McGoats: What’s your expectation for Josh Bell in ’17?

Travis Sawchik: I love the plate discipline, bat-to-ball skills, burgeoning power and switch hitting. I’m a big fan, though we have to see how the glove plays

Donovan!: Do you see a time stamp on questions in your queue? If so, how long before a chat ends is it basically futile to submit a question because you just won’t ever even see it?

Travis Sawchik: They are placed in queue in order of submission, but I scroll down to the latest to make sure I’m not missing any 80-grade questions

andrew: Odor o/u 35 HRs in 2017?

Travis Sawchik: under

CamdenWarehouse: What are the top 5 baseball related tabs you keep open all day?

Travis Sawchik: FanGraphs, FanGraphs, FanGraphs …. MLBTR, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus

Sam: Is there a young player out there that you personally feel is going to take the next step towards being considered a star in the league?

Travis Sawchik: He’s already star-y …. but Addison Russell is going to hit more than he has

Totes McGoats: Renfroe or Margot for 2017?

Travis Sawchik: Real-life value? Margot

IsIt2015Yet?: How many MLB players lose their 2017 season to WBC injuries this year?

Travis Sawchik: Over/under 1.5

soaktherich: What are the Mets thinking? They can’t be seriously considering Conforto in AAA. Has he not proven enough there already? That Bruce trade is the hot mess that won’t cool down.

Travis Sawchik: I, personally, would like to see Conforto play everyday

Donovan!: What would you, personally, name an expansion team in Portland? Mexico City? Montreal? Las Vegas? Charlotte?

Travis Sawchik: Montreal is coming back as the Expos, right? The cap is still selling well

Zac: Why does George Springer suck at stealing bases? He’s literally terrible at it.

Travis Sawchik: Statcast should help us understand “instinct” to a much better degree

Travis Sawchik: First-step quickness, etc

Neil: Do you know Terry Sawchuck was a Quality goalie in NHL

Travis Sawchik: I do. Different bloodline, though. Watch Bloodline on Netflix

Google: yankees are 1 or 2 out of wild card at deadline, how deep into their system do they dig to make a run?

Travis Sawchik: Not too deep. It’s all about 2018 and beyond for the Yankees

A. Reitz: It’s funny to hear people talk about trading Greinke a year after signing his deal because…he wasn’t elite? ARZ knew what they were getting in to w/ that contract. They aren’t going to dump him after a year…especially since they think they can win.

Travis Sawchik: Pitching to Grandal in LA didn’t hurt, either. DBacks should have better receivers this year. Greinke will be better

jamesryu: Do you have plan to write more books in the future? If so, about what?

Travis Sawchik: I hope so! Not sure.

Jose Q: So…..looks like I’m gonna be King of the CrapSox on Opening Day, huh?

Travis Sawchik: More and more, but I think you will be gone by midseason

KelliOnnKawnweigh: DR or US for WBC?

Travis Sawchik: US! (Home-country bias)

JT: What should rebuilding teams do with their unspectacular league average players? The Solartes of the world. You won’t get anything good in a trade yet they won’t be around by the time the team gets good again

Travis Sawchik: Move them for something, even if it projects to be unspectacular

Donovan!: You said you’re curious in arms that are adding a new pitch. What about arms that are re-adding an old pitch? I was always angry and perplexed that the Orioles literally forced Dylan Bundy to stop throwing his best pitch (Cutter) in the minors. Now reports are that he’s adding it back. Thoughts?

Travis Sawchik: I want to see Bundy and the cutter reunited. A great love story possible there

Full Durham: Do you have favorite minor league ballparks?

Travis Sawchik: Durham’s isn’t bad, I haven’t been to enough, but I like little Fenway in Greenville, SC

Barry: Nomar Mazara 2017 projections Travis? and what kind of player is he long term? thanks

Travis Sawchik: There’s so many great young players and he’s one of them …

Travis Sawchik: Thanks for the questions folks! I have to go write for you now. Same place, same time, next week