Top 41 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies by Eric Longenhagen March 1, 2021 Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Philadelphia Phillies. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. As there was no minor league season in 2020, there are some instances where no new information was gleaned about a player. Players whose write-ups have not been meaningfully altered begin by telling you so. Each blurb ends with an indication of where the player played in 2020, which in turn likely informed the changes to their report if there were any. As always, I’ve leaned more heavily on sources from outside of a given org than those within for reasons of objectivity. Because outside scouts were not allowed at the alternate sites, I’ve primarily focused on data from there, and the context of that data, in my opinion, reduces how meaningful it is. Lastly, in an effort to more clearly indicate relievers’ anticipated roles, you’ll see two reliever designations, both on my lists and on The Board: MIRP, or multi-inning relief pitcher, and SIRP, or single-inning relief pitcher. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of Future Value’s merits and drawbacks, read Future Value. All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here. Top Prospects Team Lists 2021 2020 ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Phillies Top Prospects Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV 1 Spencer Howard 24.6 MLB SP 2021 55 2 Mick Abel 19.5 R SP 2024 50 3 Francisco Morales 21.3 A SIRP 2022 45+ 4 Johan Rojas 20.5 A- CF 2023 45+ 5 Bryson Stott 23.4 A- SS 2023 45 6 Rafael Marchan 22.0 MLB C 2022 45 7 Erik Miller 23.1 A SP 2023 45 8 Mickey Moniak 22.8 MLB CF 2021 45 9 Luis Garcia 20.4 A SS 2023 45 10 Simon Muzziotti 22.2 A+ CF 2022 45 11 Casey Martin 21.9 R SS 2024 40+ 12 Bailey Falter 23.9 AA SP 2021 40+ 13 JoJo Romero 24.5 MLB MIRP 2021 40+ 14 Yhoswar Garcia 19.5 R CF 2025 40+ 15 Jamari Baylor 20.6 R 2B 2024 40+ 16 Nick Maton 24.0 AA SS 2021 40 17 Connor Brogdon 26.1 MLB SIRP 2021 40 18 James McArthur 24.2 A+ SP 2022 40 19 Gunner Mayer 20.6 R SP 2024 40 20 Yemal Flores 17.3 R RF 2025 40 21 Eduar Segovia 20.1 R SP 2023 40 22 Adonis Medina 24.2 MLB SP 2021 40 23 Damon Jones 26.4 AAA SIRP 2021 40 24 Starlyn Castillo 19.0 R SP 2024 40 25 Ethan Lindow 22.4 A+ SP 2022 40 26 Jhailyn Ortiz 22.3 A+ 1B 2021 40 27 Rodolfo Duran 23.0 A+ C 2021 40 28 Cristopher Sánchez 24.2 AAA MIRP 2021 35+ 29 Dominic Pipkin 21.3 A SP 2023 35+ 30 Mauricio Llovera 24.9 MLB SIRP 2021 35+ 31 Julian Garcia 25.8 AA MIRP 2021 35+ 32 Kyle Dohy 24.5 AAA SIRP 2021 35+ 33 Marcus Lee Sang 20.2 R RF 2024 35+ 34 Kendall Simmons 20.9 A- SS 2023 35+ 35 Baron Radcliff 22.1 R 1B 2024 35+ 36 Ramón Rosso 24.7 MLB MIRP 2021 35+ 37 Carlos De La Cruz 21.4 A RF 2023 35+ 38 Victor Santos 20.6 A SP 2023 35+ 39 Hsin-Chieh Lin 22.0 A+ SP 2023 35+ 40 Nicoly Pina 21.4 R SP 2023 35+ 41 Andrew Schultz 23.6 A SIRP 2022 35+ Reading Options Detail Level Data Only Full Position Filter All All C 1B 2B SS 3B OF LF CF RF LHP RHP 55 FV Prospects 1. Spencer Howard, SP Video Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Cal Poly (PHI) Age 24.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 55/55 50/55 55/55 60/60 40/45 93-97 / 98 Howard’s stuff was just not as crisp in 2020 as it was at the end of 2019 as he dealt with rotator cuff inflammation. He and Casey Mize are back to back on the Top 100: guys with front end stuff, but recent injuries. Howard’s fastball was sitting 93-97 deep into his best 2019 Fall League outings but only averaged 94 in 2020, and his command backed up, too. I’m taking a longview here. Remember that we’re talking about a small school pop-up reliever who, due to a past shoulder injury and the pandemic, has just one full pro season as a starter. Howard has impact stuff. His changeup is plus, he can blow his fastball past lefties near their hands, his slider has big time action to his glove side, and his low-70s curveball is a nice look to present hitters the second and third time through the lineup. His breaking ball lacked backfoot angle in 2020 but, based on how Howard has described his shoulder issues impacting how he pitched, that may come if he and the Phillies staff can find a way to put the shoulder problems in the rearview. There are three or four bat-missing pitches in Howard’s bag when he’s healthy and loose. (Alternate site, MLB) 50 FV Prospects 2. Mick Abel, SP Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2020 from Jesuit HS (OR) (PHI) Age 19.5 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 50/60 50/60 45/55 25/55 92-94 / 97 Abel has been the best pitching prospect his age since his sophomore year of high school and he’s the youngest pitching prospect in the 50 FV tier across baseball. He has the prototypical starter’s frame at a broad-shouldered 6-foot-4, already throws hard and should be able to hold that kind of velocity for a whole season as his frame fills out, has a strong natural proclivity for spinning his breaking stuff, and will also flash a really good changeup once in a while. While Abel’s sitting fastball velocity slipped throughout his showcase summer, he was still reaching back for 97 early in outings and the rest of his profile was more complete than other prep arms, so even though his senior season was cancelled because of COVID-19, he was the first high school pitcher selected in the 2020 Draft. Then, aside from some remote live BP work during the summer, he rested until Instructional League where he once again showed big, mid-90s gas. He’s got star-level ceiling if he can execute his secondary stuff consistently. (Fall Instructional League) 45+ FV Prospects 3. Francisco Morales, SIRP Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (PHI) Age 21.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 55/60 60/70 35/45 30/45 93-96 / 98 There’s no change to Morales’ report, as what I sourced from 2020 instructs (93-96, plus slider, no difference between his ’19 and ’20 changeups) is the same as in ’19, though i will note he’s now on the 40-man roster of a team that last year badly needed someone with late-inning stuff: Morales remains on the starter/reliever fringe, and I think the latter is more likely. He has a traditional power pitcher’s fastball/slider combination, while the upper-80s changeup (it was 87-89 during 2020 instructs) remains firm and unrefined, as does his control. Morales is a good athlete — he’s sinewy and strong — while his delivery is violent and difficult to repeat. One of those will usurp the other and dictate what happens to Morales’ role. I think he’ll be a ninth inning bully. From a size and athleticism standpoint, I think Morales is very similar to prospect-era Dylan Bundy and Daniel Espino, who were better executing a deeper rertoire at the same age. (Fall Instructional League) 4. Johan Rojas, CF Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (PHI) Age 20.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 35/55 50/60 30/45 70/70 45/60 60 He’s rough around the edges, but Rojas is a scintillating talent with the best raw power/speed combination in the system. He swings with twitch, and strength, and ugly (but effective) bat control. He’ll show you plus-plus bat speed on a max-effort swing and he’ll also make mid-flight adjustments to offspeed stuff. It’s not often pretty, but he hits balls hard consistently. The offensive ingredient we don’t know about yet is the plate discipline. Right now we’re talking about a 6% walk rate across 550 career plate appearances. Some may have some more data from stuff collected at extended or instructs during that time. It’s kind of scary, but not as scary as Rojas’ abilities are exciting. His speed gives him a chance to be an impact center field defender, and if that happens, he’ll profile even if he’s a low OBP slugging CF. (Fall Instructional League) 45 FV Prospects 5. Bryson Stott, SS Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from UNLV (PHI) Age 23.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 45/55 50/50 30/40 55/50 40/45 50 College performers aren’t typically divisive, but Stott’s swing and defensive actions are atypical, and not all scouts think they work. I’ve seen a bunch of him since his sophomore year at UNLV and still don’t know. He can move the bat head all over the zone but doesn’t do damage everywhere. I’ve seen him homer on pitches at the top of the zone, and go down and golf them out off his shoe tops, he is great at adjusting to breaking balls mid-flight, and more and more of those are being thrown at the big league level. I’ve also seen him be late on a lot of fastballs, and end up topping them into the ground. Sometimes he’ll flare pitches he’s late on over the head of the opposing shortstop, but there is a way to pitch to him to limit damage if you execute, which was evident at the alt site as well. I’ve dialed down Stott’s game power projection because of this, making it imperative he stays at short. He’s a big guy with an atypical throwing stroke. I had him projected to stay at short last year and there’s basically no new info on this end, but not all the four corners scouts, who saw him play defense most of all, thought he could. The snapshot of the profile — a lefty-hitting shortstop with power — is still a prospectdom rarity, but I’m growing skeptical about the in-game power matching the raw based on the alt site look. (Alternate site) 6. Rafael Marchan, C Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (PHI) Age 22.0 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 55/60 40/40 20/30 45/40 45/50 55 Marchan has rare feel for contact for a catcher and held his head above water during a brief major-league trial at age 21. Even though he didn’t hit his first pro home run until he was in the big leagues, Marchan’s left-handed swing might enable him to hit for a little bit of pull pop, and opposing pitchers should be wary of his ability to turn on velocity under his hands. He has less ability to do damage out and away from him, and his right-handed swing is far inferior to his left. There’s still feel for the barrel from the right side, but a less-connected lower half; Marchan just sort of throws the bat head at the ball as a right-handed hitter and can’t hit for power from that side. He’s also a suitable, but unspectacular defensive catcher. He’ll catch on one knee for certain pitchers but not for others, and his lateral mobility is noticeably hampered when he does. Marchan’s ball-blocking has improved but is still not great, like a hockey goalie who gives up longer rebounds. From a skills standpoint, he’s not all that different from Adrian Del Castillo (a likely first round catcher in this year’s draft) or even Keibert Ruiz, but the mediocre defense and ability to turn him around and neuter his offense prevented Marchan from entering the top 100. He projects as a low-end regular or even timeshare catcher sort, which teams badly need, and he’s big league ready. He’s a high-profile trade candidate now that J.T. Realmuto has signed long-term. (Alternate site, MLB) 7. Erik Miller, SP Video Drafted: 4th Round, 2019 from Stanford (PHI) Age 23.1 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 45/50 50/55 50/55 55/60 30/50 90-95 / 96 Scouts saw different versions of Miller at different times. He was into the mid-90s on the Cape but sat in the low-90s during his pre-draft spring, reaching back for more when he wanted, but appearing to dial things down to throw strikes most of the time. He was living toward the higher end of that range during 2020 instructs, sitting 92-95. Miller’s secondary stuff is also very promising. His changeup was his best weapon in college but his two breaking balls each have big spin. They’re already quite good even thought they’re maybe not totally spin efficient, according to a front office source citing a gap between Miller’s breaking balls’ raw traits and observed movement. He has No. 4 starter stuff if he can hold this type of velo over the course of a season without sacrificing control, as appeared to happen to him while he was throwing his hardest in college. (Fall Instructional League) 8. Mickey Moniak, CF Video Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from La Costa Canyon HS (CA) (PHI) Age 22.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 50/55 45/45 30/40 55/55 50/50 50 There’s a chance Moniak makes a swing change that unlocks more in-game power, and I do think his feel for contact gives him a chance to max out whatever game power his swing allows for, but until we start seeing that in games, I just have him projected as an oft-used fourth outfielder or low-end center field regular. He has great plate coverage and can poke well-located fastballs on the outside corner to left field, while staying back on breaking balls and hooking those into the right field corner or right-center gap. The high-end feel for contact enabled Moniak to be a little swing-happy as an amateur but it’s made him a lower OBP hitter in pro ball, and his expected stats in 2019 were closer to a .310 OBP and .410 SLG rather than the .440 mark he posted in Reading (ah, Reading). He’s filled out and the raw power looks like it’s going to settle close to average based on sourced exit velos and my 2019 Fall League looks (which weren’t good until the last week or two). The Phillies 2021 roster could perhaps use a lefty-hitting outfielder to compliment Kingery/Segura/McCutchen and provide late-game run prevention help, but Roman Quinn has the defensive edge over Moniak and Adam Haseley. (Alternate site, MLB) 9. Luis Garcia, SS Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (PHI) Age 20.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/55 45/50 30/35 55/55 50/55 60 Garcia went from 2018 stat-stuffer to 2019 full-season flop, albeit as an 18-year-old who the org just pushed too fast (though guys like Andrés Giménez and Washington’s Luis García recently handled their aggressive promotions). Then we had no 2020 Low-A sequel season by which to evaluate Garcia’s progress; instead, all we have is his Instructional League look, which was very glove-centric. Indeed, Garcia is an excellent young defensive shortstop but doesn’t have clear everyday offensive ability. He may still grow into requisite strength but we’re not talking about a traditionally projectable 6-foot-2 frame here, as Garcia’s a shorter, stockier guy. He’s starting to track more like a high-probability utility infielder. If he ends up a regular, it’ll be because his feel for contact drives his offensive profile, and as a young switch-hitter with some barrel variability, I think that’s possible. We’ll just need to see some on-field production to project that sort of outcome. (Fall Instructional League) 10. Simon Muzziotti, CF Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (PHI) Age 22.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 45/60 40/45 30/35 60/60 45/55 55 There’s no change to Muzziotti’s report, though he needs to start punishing the ball soon; otherwise, we’re looking at another contact-only center field type à la Carlos Tocci: This is the most talented set of hitting hands in this system. Some of Muzziotti’s cuts have an immaculate, electric beauty; others gasp to make contact with a pitch he should not have swung at. He can rip his hands through and get the barrel on pitches inside, and he can spoil tough pitches on the edge of the zone. There’s rare bat-to-ball feel here, which enables a swing-happy approach that could use refining. Muzziotti’s exit velo data is not great, he lacks much frame-based projection, and he’s been hurt a bit. But he has a special knack for finding the barrel and it’s what I care most about. (Fall Instructional League) 40+ FV Prospects 11. Casey Martin, SS Drafted: 3rd Round, 2020 from Arkansas (PHI) Age 21.9 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/40 55/60 35/50 80/80 35/45 55 Martin was one of the more physically gifted college players in the 2020 draft but he also had one of the worst approaches. Especially toward the end of his college career, Martin’s approach was less discerning than Mike Richards in an Old City bar at 1:45 AM, and Martin often swung at pitches at his eyes or in the other batter’s box. His physical tools are scintillating, though, and Martin is not only an elite runner and athlete but has plus pull power, too. Even if he ends up with a 35 or 40 bat because his approach remains poor, Martin will still do enough damage to be some kind of role player, like Ian Happ (though Martin’s statistical track record in college was not as strong as Happ’s), or a more athletic Yairo Muñoz. The other most significant part of his development will then be finding as many defensive positions for him to play as possible. Martin makes lots of effort- and athleticism-based plays but is pretty crude from a hands/actions standpoint on defense, which is where the Happ comp is most true. I think he’ll end up playing one of second or third base and all over the outfield in a high-impact, low OBP role. (Fall Instructional League) 12. Bailey Falter, SP Drafted: 5th Round, 2015 from Chino Hills HS (CA) (PHI) Age 23.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+ Falter had interesting underlying traits in 2018 and ’19, as he filled the zone with fringe stuff in the lower levels of the minor leagues, averaging fewer than two walks per nine innings from ’17-’19. He missed the back half of 2019 because of an elbow strain but teams still kicked the tires on him in that year’s Rule 5 Draft; Falter sat 89-92 that season. During 2020 instructs, he was not only healthy but throwing harder, sitting 90-94 throughout camp and 93-95 at his best. That extra velo is made tougher to hit because Falter is pretty funky and deceptive. His glove raise is like a magician’s misdirection and he takes a gargantuan stride home, generating seven feet, three inches of extension. The secondaries are not dominant — you’ll see some plus changeups, but both breaking balls closer to average — but I don’t know how they’ll play now that they’re paired with a harder fastball. There’s a breakout opportunity here, and if not, it’s nice to know Falter is healthy and will be a viable backend option soon because of his ability to throw strikes. (Fall Instructional League) 13. JoJo Romero, MIRP Video Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Yavapai JC (AZ) (PHI) Age 24.5 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 55/55 50/55 50/55 45/45 93-95 / 96 JoJo Romero’s velocity last year was up (89-93 in 2019, 93-95 in ’20), and his repertoire has been reconfigured to feature a slider rather than the cutter/curveball mix from the preceding few years. During his days at Yavapai, I had Romero’s changeup projected as his best secondary offering, and I still think he has the traits — athleticism and arm action — to develop a really good one. It was easier to envision him locating it precisely when he was pitching with more of a touch-and-feel style rather than his current max-effort, fire-breathing, can-crushing persona. I’m not saying I prefer him living in the 88-92 range, but I am less sure about how to continue projecting on the changeup even though, again, I’m letting his athleticism be my guide. I like him as a guy who can give you four-to-six outs out of the bullpen if you need it. (Alternate site, MLB) 14. Yhoswar Garcia, CF Signed: July 2nd Period, 2020 from Venezuela (PHI) Age 19.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding 20/45 50/60 20/55 70/70 40/55 Everything I have on Garcia either comes from the org or from what I’ve seen on video, which is less than I have on any other player on this list (or any other), which I think it is important for readers to know. Garcia first appeared in the electronic pages of FanGraphs in February of 2019 when Kiley and I wrote up exciting players we expected to sign that July. Instead, Garcia had to wait until March of 2020 to sign due to age misrepresentation, as he was a full year older than indicated. He’s now the age of a junior college prospect and has very few in-game reps for a player that age. He is very talented, though, and has one of the better baseball builds in all of the minors, a physique that rivals Luis Robert’s. Garcia has plus bat speed and is really short to the baseball despite lots of pre-swing noise in his hands. He’s also fast enough to have a shot to be an impact center fielder, though I have no idea what his instincts out there are like. It’s tough to line up a player like this on a list; I think I’d take a shot on his upside rather than the major league-ready middle relief/fifth starter/bench role players I have behind him here. But while you could argue Casey Martin is just as toolsy/risky, we have several years of college looks/data to support his tool profile that we don’t for Garcia, who couldn’t come to the US for any baseball activity in 2020 due to travel restrictions. (At-home dev) 15. Jamari Baylor, 2B Drafted: 3rd Round, 2019 from Benedictine HS (VA) (PHI) Age 20.6 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 193 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/40 50/55 30/45 55/55 40/50 55 Baylor’s ability to rotate with ferocity took a leap sometime between PG National and his senior spring. Teams were not in agreement about where he fit defensively, and some bailed on him entirely early in the process because he didn’t look great with the bat during his pre-draft summer, perhaps due to a lingering arm injury. He went bonkers as a senior, not just clubbing bad pitching but looking more explosive to the eye. He has a shot to stay up the middle, most likely at second base,. He has the bat speed and hand talent to profile there, but Baylor is the sort of player for whom short season ball is the right developmental temperature, and he didn’t get that in 2020. He still looked sushi raw as of 2020 instructs. (Fall Instructional League) 40 FV Prospects 16. Nick Maton, SS Video Drafted: 7th Round, 2017 from Lincoln Land JC (IL) (PHI) Age 24.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 178 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 35/40 45/45 40/45 55/55 50/50 60 Maton’s is a very interesting defensive and statistical profile. He’s a lefty bat who can play both middle infield spots (and began playing some third base in 2019), he walks (10% career rate), and he hits the ball in the air a ton (33% career groundball rate), which will help him max out his in-game power. He’s also performed at every stop and checks a lot of visual athletic boxes. But the raw power and barrel control are lacking. Maton needs to hunt the right pitches to do damage. I think he’ll do that and be a power-over-hit bench infielder. (Alternate site) 17. Connor Brogdon, SIRP Drafted: 10th Round, 2017 from Lewis-Clark State (ID) (PHI) Age 26.1 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 192 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops 55/55 60/60 45/45 50/50 93-95 / 97 The tall, gangly Brodgon knifed through the upper-levels of the minors in 2019, and amassed 106 strikeouts in 76 relief innings. He sat 93-95 and touched 97 with plus spin and vertical movement, which helped him generate a 17% swinging strike rate on his fastball. He also has a plus changeup that fades down and to his arm side. It’s a foundational middle relief look, a cut above the up/down option year types. (Alternate site, MLB) 18. James McArthur, SP Drafted: 12th Round, 2018 from Ole Miss (PHI) Age 24.2 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 55/60 50/55 50/55 35/40 30/45 93-95 / 96 McArthur sat 90-94 in 2019 then absolutely blew up during ’20 instructs, where he was parked at 94-95 and working in two nasty breaking balls, including a slider sitting 86-87 and a low-80s curveball averaging 2800 rpm. He’s a big-framed, long-levered righty without touch and feel for location but McArthur’s arm action is pretty short for his size, so I think he could fill the zone enough to start. If his velo bump holds over the course of a whole season, he could end up with three above-average pitches. He’s similar in age to a bunch of big league ready relievers in the system but has more upside. (Fall Instructional League) 19. Gunner Mayer, SP Drafted: 5th Round, 2019 from San Joaquin Delta JC (CA) (PHI) Age 20.6 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 45/55 50/60 30/45 30/50 90-94 / 95 Mayer’s velo (90-94, touching a little higher than that) was similar in 2019 and ’20, but his breaking ball is nastier and looks like a real backfoot weapon against left-handed hitters. A junior college reliever, he is a high-variance arm strength/physical projection developmental prospect. He was still just 18 on Draft Day in 2019, and his gangly 6-foot-6 frame portends more velo. There is big fastball spin here and Mayer’s secondary stuff (his changeup is now in the 84-85 range) has improved considerably in just a short time in the system. (Fall Instructional League) 20. Yemal Flores, RF Signed: July 2nd Period, 2021 from Dominican Republic (PHI) Age 17.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40 The headline signee of Philadelphia’s 2021 international class, Flores is a physical, righty-hitting corner outfielder with present power. His muscular frame and short swing evoke Marcel Ozuna and Justin Turner. The recent track record of Philly’s physically mature, power bat signees like this (Jose Pujols, Jhailyn Ortiz) is not good in part because it’s so tough for right/right corner guys to hit enough to profile, but Flores has shorter levers than Pujols and isn’t an XXL teenager like Ortiz was. (2021 international signee) 21. Eduar Segovia, SP Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (PHI) Age 20.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 45/50 50/55 30/45 30/50 92-95 / 97 Segovia seems to have enjoyed his second consecutive year with a velo bump, as he sat 91-94 in ’19 and then was 92-95 and touching 97 during last Fall’s instructs. His low-80s slurve flashes plus and he has the makings of a power action changeup in the upper-80s. Like Starlyn Castillo, Segoiva’s frame lacks projection but that was true already last year and he still found a way to throw harder. This is a power pitching prospect of extreme variance whose arrow has now been pointing up for the last 18 months or so. (Fall Instructional League) 22. Adonis Medina, SP Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (PHI) Age 24.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 187 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 40/40 45/45 55/60 50/55 90-94 / 96 The right tail outcome for Medina’s profile is someone like Julio Teheran. Like Teheran, Medina is an athletic sinker/changeup righty, but he arguably has a better breaking ball than Teheran does. Before touching the vertical movement monolith and leaping into the new frontier of fastball understanding, I had boundless enthusiasm for Medina. But it eventually became clear his fastball just wasn’t going to play like a mid-90s heater. The secondaries — a sweeping breaking ball in the 77-82 mph range and that changeup — and command projection are still strong, and they need to be for Medina to survive because his fastball has no margin for error in the zone. I have him projected with plus command because I’m betting on the athleticism, but I think it needs to be that good for Medina to be anything at all, in this case a fifth starter. (Alternate site, MLB) 23. Damon Jones, SIRP Drafted: 18th Round, 2017 from Washington State (PHI) Age 26.4 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops 55/55 60/60 30/35 91-94 / 96 Jones found a better slider in 2019 and went from a lefty with average stuff to one with an out pitch. His fastball command is not good and not only relegates him to the bullpen, but might make him volatile in that role. He sat 91-94 and touched 96 as a starter in 2019 and his velocity remained the same at last year’s alt site, though the heater plays above its velocity because of its angle and carry. He only worked with two pitches at the alt site so expect him to be put in a bullpen role in 2021. If he can locate his slider to his glove side consistently (he did in 2019), then he’ll be a bullpen weapon. He’s one of several lefties competing for a 2021 spot, though he’s likely to be up and down this year. (Alternate site) 24. Starlyn Castillo, SP Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (PHI) Age 19.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 55/60 55/60 40/50 30/45 93-95 / 97 Castillo’s fastball was touching 97 when he was 15 years old, and he received one of the highest bonuses of the 2018 July 2 class. He didn’t get into games until July 2019, when he was 93-95 with a plus slider in 20-pitch outings, and I have him sitting 92-93 last Fall. He was creating more movement on his changeup during 2020 instructs (his slider was already quite good), so even though there has been a little dip in velocity here, Castillo remains in the 40 FV tier as he’s starting to track more like a No. 4/5 starter than a power reliever. (Fall Instructional League) 25. Ethan Lindow, SP Drafted: 5th Round, 2017 from Locust Grove HS (GA) (PHI) Age 22.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / L FV 40 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 50/50 45/45 50/50 40/45 45/55 87-90 / 92 There’s no change to Lindow’s report, as he was neither at the alt site nor instructs: Lindow throws a ton of strikes with a bevy of average pitches, though his curveball typically has good shape, the kind that’s especially tough on lefties. He’s now in his early 20s and has already had statistical success up through Hi-A. Lindow’s pitching approach is relatively fly ball-heavy, so Reading and the Triple-A baseball may expose some issues, but for now he projects as a backend starter. (At-home dev) 26. Jhailyn Ortiz, 1B Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (PHI) Age 22.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/40 70/70 35/60 40/30 35/40 60 There’s no change to Ortiz’s report: 1B/DH profiles like this need to perform on paper. Ortiz was passed over in the 2020 Rule 5 and needs to hit from the minor league starting gun this year to stay alive. He finished second in the Florida State League in homers but still managed to end the year with an overall batting line below the league’s average. He’s more svelte than he was as an amateur, and while he’s still big-bodied, he’s stronger than he is soft. He even got a little bit of run in center field last year, but at age 22, Ortiz is built like José Abreu is right now and is probably destined for first base. I once thought a DH/1B future was a lock, but Ortiz has stayed in the outfield to this point, so I have no idea what kind of infield hands he has. The power gives him a real shot to be a regular, and while the peripherals make him very scary, Ortiz gets some grace for being 20 in the Florida State League in 2019 even though he had a sub-.300 OBP. (Fall Instructional League) 27. Rodolfo Duran, C Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (PHI) Age 23.0 Height 5′ 8″ Weight 181 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40 Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 35/45 50/50 35/40 40/40 50/55 55 There’s no change here, as Duran was not at the alt site, though he was at instructs and played for Estrellas Orientales in LIDOM: Duran is an athletic, workmanlike catcher with plus raw arm strength. He receives well, is mobile, and will show you pop times in the low 1.9s. His power output is limited by an epicurean approach, but a very compact swing enables enough contact to support a backup catching profile. (Fall Instructional League, LIDOM) 35+ FV Prospects 28. Cristopher Sánchez, MIRP Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (TBR) Age 24.2 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 50/55 45/45 45/45 50/55 40/45 89-94 / 95 The Rays didn’t have 40-man room for Sánchez, so they traded him to the Phillies (who needed bullpen depth) for toolsy Australian infielder Curtis Mead. In the year leading up to the deal, Sánchez’s velo climbed from 88-93 to the 92-95 range, topping out at 98, in multi-inning relief stints and starts lasting as long as five innings. Then, even as the Phillies bullpen was getting shelled, Sánchez languished away at the alternate site with diminished velocity (he was only up to 95 as a starter there, sitting 91-94). He continued to pitch in LIDOM, working most often with his fastball, then his mid-80s changeup, then equal parts curveball and slider. I think he’s likely to remain stretched out and be a spot starter during his option years and then move into the bullpen once he’s out of them. That’ll give Sánchez time to try to find a true bat-missing secondary, which he’ll need in relief. If he can do that (I’m assuming an eventual velo bump in the ‘pen), he could end up in a leveraged role, but I’m not projecting that right now. (Alternate site, LIDOM) 29. Dominic Pipkin, SP Video Drafted: 9th Round, 2018 from Pinole Valley HS (CA) (PHI) Age 21.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 50/60 40/45 40/45 45/55 35/50 90-95 / 98 Pipkin’s fastball velocity was very volatile during his amateur and early pro career, but it has been pretty consistent for a while now. After he topped out at 94 in 2018, Pipkin was up to 98 in ’19 and sat 94-95 during instructs last Fall. His secondaries are still not very good (I think the changeup has the best chance to be an impact pitch), but he’s quite good at killing spin on his changeup (1600 rpm on average) and, as I’ve written before, I think that’s the pitch that has the best chance of developing into a real weapon, while whatever breaking ball he ends up with will need to be hard. He remains a slow-burn frame-based projection arm. (Fall Instructional League) 30. Mauricio Llovera, SIRP Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (PHI) Age 24.9 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Curveball Splitter Command Sits/Tops 50/50 45/45 55/60 40/40 93-95 / 96 The 2018 version of Llovera flashed a plus split, a plus breaking ball, and sat in the mid-90s. He seemed like a potential candidate for the Seranthony Domínguez 2019 treatment — a quick move to the bullpen with high-leverage innings a distinct possibility based on the quality of the stuff, especially if the heater got a bump because he could cut it loose in short bursts. Then Llovera pitched with diminished stuff and was shut down with an elbow issue in mid-July of 2019; he sat 92-93 at the alt site and peaked at 95 last year. I’ve reclassified his breaking ball as a curveball since it’s also lost some zip. Llovera looks more like an up/down reliever now than a multi-inning weapon. (Alternate site, MLB) 31. Julian Garcia, MIRP Drafted: 10th Round, 2016 from Metropolitan State JC (CO) (PHI) Age 25.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 206 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 55/55 55/55 50/50 50/50 87-90 / 91 Garcia’s fastball has elite vertical movement. His fastball spins at 2700 rpm on average, which is incredible on its own but especially amazing at his velocity. He has a deceptive overhand delivery, his changeup and curveball diverge nicely, and he throws strikes. I think he could be an Oliver Drake-style reliever. (At-home dev) 32. Kyle Dohy, SIRP Drafted: 16th Round, 2017 from Citrus JC (CA) (PHI) Age 24.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 188 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 50/50 40/40 60/60 30/30 90-93 / 96 A plus changeup and mid-90s velo spearhead an option years trial relief profile for Dohy, whose excellent stuff is undercut by his poor control. This sort of stuff is still somewhat new for the lefty, who experienced a velo bump upon his move to the bullpen and has had his breaking ball overhauled (it’s still not great). He’s on the 40-man and part of a crowded group of southpaws fighting for a spot in a magmatic bullpen. (At-home dev) 33. Marcus Lee Sang, RF Drafted: 11th Round, 2019 from Northern HS (MD) (PHI) Age 20.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 20/45 45/50 25/50 55/50 40/50 60 I don’t have enough new info on MLS to change his write-up: Lee Sang is an athletic, two-way prospect who didn’t have much amateur experience against elite pitching. As a result, he’s likely to need some early-career barbecuing on the complex. But he has a sweet lefty stroke, he runs well enough to give center field a try, and he has a plus arm. (Fall Instructional League) 34. Kendall Simmons, SS Drafted: 6th Round, 2018 from Tattnall Square Academy HS (GA) (PHI) Age 20.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 20/35 55/65 35/55 55/50 40/50 55 Simmons was so raw that he swung and missed a ton even during high school varsity play, so his 2019 statistical success in the Penn League was surprising and impressive. But an extended look at Simmons during his Australian Baseball League run (which included him struggling to hold on to the bat), has me backpedaling on his placement. It’s rare to find infielders with this sort of bat speed but I think it’s pretty unlikely that he hits, both due to his breaking ball recognition and a lack of bat control. (Fall Instructional League, Australian Baseball League) 35. Baron Radcliff, 1B Drafted: 5th Round, 2020 from Georgia Tech (PHI) Age 22.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/40 70/70 35/55 30/30 40/45 40 Philly drafts a big college first baseman like this most years, a guy with huge power who has performed at a bigger school. Radcliff’s limited bat-to-ball skills make the first base profile very dicey, but he certainly has the power for it. He reached base at a .400 clip and slugged over .500 during his sophomore and pandemic-shortened junior years while playing right field at Georgia Tech. (Fall Instructional League) 36. Ramón Rosso, MIRP Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (LAD) Age 24.7 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Slider Cutter Command Sits/Tops 50/50 55/55 40/40 94-96 / 97 Rosso has had velocity fluctuations over the last couple of years and was throwing much harder in 2020. After sitting 90-93 in 2019, he was 94-97 and up to 98 in a brief 2020 big league look. He needs all the heat he can get because his fastball has natural cut that runs into barrels when it’s not located properly. He also has a mid-80s slider with curt, armside movement. I have him as an up/down reliever without a true out pitch, but he’s worth monitoring because his velo is up in a big way and he absolutely carved in Dominicana (31 K, 6 BB in 26 LIDOM innings) during the winter. (Alternate site, MLB, LIDOM) 37. Carlos De La Cruz, RF Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (PHI) Age 21.4 Height 6′ 8″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/35 55/70 35/55 55/50 40/50 50 There’s no change to De La Cruz’s report as he was not at instructs: De La Cruz has a power forward’s build at 6-foot-8 and is an extreme power projection long shot. He runs well enough underway that there’s a faction of scouts who think he might stay in center field, which would take some pressure off the swing-and-miss profile. The selectivity is the thing that really needs to improve here. (At-home dev) 38. Victor Santos, SP Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (PHI) Age 20.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 191 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Splitter Command Sits/Tops 35/35 45/50 55/60 35/60 87-91 / 92 There’s no change here. Santos was listed on the Phillies instructs roster but I can’t find anyone who saw him, and a pitch data source with whom I spoke didn’t have anything from the Fall either. He also worked out with Escogido before the LIDOM season but didn’t pitch for them: A pitchability teenager with a good changeup, Santos slings in average stuff, some of which plays up because of his funky, long arm action. His realistic ceiling is that of a fifth or sixth starter. (Fall Instructional League) 39. Hsin-Chieh Lin, SP Video Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Taiwan (PHI) Age 22.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 40/45 40/50 40/50 35/50 89-92 / 94 There’s no change to Lin’s report, as he did not come stateside in 2020: Lin is a giant almost-22-year-old with huge, broad shoulders and a softer build. He has “reverse projection,” meaning he’s young enough to reshape an otherwise unprojectable build and add velocity through improved conditioning. Philly has targeted heavier-bodied pitchers in international free agency before (Castillo, Morales, Santos) and Lin is another. His delivery is fairly loose and fluid, especially for his size. The secondary stuff is raw, but Lin had a strong statistical 2019 in a three-ish inning piggyback role with Williamsport. (At-home dev) 40. Nicoly Pina, SP Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (PHI) Age 21.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 203 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops 55/60 45/55 30/40 93-96 / 97 There’s no change here except to add that Pina’s slider/cutter sits about 82 and he recently had surgery, so we may not see him for a while: Nicoly Pina’s breaking ball is still clearly a work-in-progress — I’d call his low-80s breaker a cutter right now, but it seems subject to change — but physically, he has a huge arm and creates nearly pure backspin on his heater. I won’t go too crazy projecting on the fastball because he is already quite strong-bodied and pitching in relief (and with an unusual amount of rest between outings), but it could be a dominant pitch because of its vertical movement/velo combo. (Fall Instructional League) 41. Andrew Schultz, SIRP Drafted: 6th Round, 2019 from Tennessee (PHI) Age 23.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops 70/70 45/50 35/40 30/35 96-99 / 100 Schultz had surgery late last summer (I think he had TJ but haven’t been able to confirm) and slides to the bottom of the 35+ tier as a result. The rest of the report stays the same: This is the hardest throwing pitcher in this entire system, sitting 96-99 in his post-draft outings after he touched 101 at Tennessee. He walked a batter per inning in college and has a very long, tough-to-repeat arm action that affects his control and slider quality. He has late-inning arm strength but needs to find mechanical consistency to be anything at all. (Injury rehab) Other Prospects of Note Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category. Older Pitching Depth Enyel De Los Santos, RHP David Parkinson, LHP Mike Adams, RHP Keylan Killgore, LHP Joel Cesar, RHP De Los Santos was available to other teams last year and went unclaimed, then he was up to 97 in his spring debut yesterday. He was once a 45 FV changeup/velo command prospect. Parkinson is a pitchability lefty with a good changeup, a slow, sweeping breaking ball, and a below-average fastball. He has starts where he locates at will and carves. Adams, 26, is a former indy baller who was signed after throwing 96-98 at an indoor facility during the offseason. Killgore has a low-90s fastball with plus vertical movement. Cesar was the PTBNL in the Austin Davis trade. He’s up to 95, has an above-average changeup, and 30 control. Catchers Logan O’Hoppe, C Rickardo Perez, C Andrick Nava, C Abrahan Gutierrez, C Juan Aparicio, C Victor Diaz, C O’Hoppe, 21, was a surprise inclusion at the 2020 alt site, perhaps as much due to geographic proximity to the Lehigh Valley as anything. He has a great frame and is fairly athletic but he’s a slow bat guy who needs a simple swing to stay on time, which curtails his in-game power. Perez signed in January. He’s a sweet-swinging lefty hitter with the most physical projection of this group by a long shot. Nava, 19, is a switch-hitter who also has good feel for contact. He only caught 14 games in 2019 and shared reps with lots of other catchers at 2020 instructs. Gutierrez, now 21, was a prominent amateur who has yet to perform in pro ball amid fluctuations in conditioning. A scout who watched Phils instructs told me this is the guy from the group who they’re most interested in. Diaz has average present power. Aparacio is a husky skills-over-tools type. Developmental Types Ben Brown, LHP Christopher Soriano, RHP Marco Soto, SS Rodolfo Sanchez, RHP Chase Antle, RHP Rixon Wingrove, 1B Dylan Castaneda, RHP Jhordany Mezquita, LHP Brown, 21, was 92-93 during the Fall and has a plus changeup. He missed most of 2019 with injury. Soriano is a somewhat projectable 6-foot-1; he’s up to 93 and has curveball feel. Soto is an athletic infielder with good hands and actions who signed in January. Sanchez was acquired from the Rays as the PTBNL for Edgar Garcia. He’s an athletic, undersized 21-year-old who was up to 95 in 2019. Chase Antle was an undrafted free agent out of Coastal Carolina and one of the harder-throwing college pitchers in 2020, sitting 95. Wingrove has plus power but is very swing-happy for a first base prospect. He has a high-effort relief delivery. Castaneda, 19, is a sinker/changeup guy in the low-90s. Mezquita, 23, has plus-plus curveball spin rates. System Overview This system still has the Amaro/Arbuckle-era tools-over-skills types all over it, though part of that is because the advanced bat sorts either climbed and graduated (Alec Bohm sure, but Adam Haseley more quintessentially) or fell away (Cornelius Randolph), while the toolsy types remain of interest to me. Note also this club has been good at finding interesting Day Three high schoolers, and there are some big-framed pitchers (DJ Jefferson types) not listed here who might develop huge velo on a pro program. This has largely been the case across baseball, but the stock up guys in this system are almost all pitchers. The top of the Phillies’ international class has often centered around a stronger, more mature sort of athlete, which has worked okay on the pitching side but hasn’t been as successful for the hitters. Only about a quarter of the ranked players here are bats. Some of the lack of depth is because of the shortened 2020 draft, combined with the Zack Wheeler signing costing the Phillies a pick in that draft and the club trading away fourth rounder Carson Ragsdale for hard-throwing powder keg Sam Coonrod. The recent turnover at the top of the domestic amateur department means all previously-observed transaction trends are moot.