Top 46 Prospects: Cleveland Indians
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Cleveland Indians. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.
All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.
| Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nolan Jones | 22.0 | AA | 3B | 2021 | 50 |
| 2 | George Valera | 19.5 | A | CF | 2022 | 50 |
| 3 | Tyler Freeman | 21.0 | A+ | SS | 2022 | 50 |
| 4 | Brayan Rocchio | 19.3 | A- | SS | 2022 | 50 |
| 5 | James Karinchak | 24.7 | MLB | RHP | 2020 | 50 |
| 6 | Daniel Johnson | 24.9 | AAA | RF | 2020 | 45+ |
| 7 | Daniel Espino | 19.4 | A- | RHP | 2022 | 45+ |
| 8 | Bo Naylor | 20.2 | A | C | 2022 | 45+ |
| 9 | Lenny Torres | 19.6 | R | RHP | 2023 | 45 |
| 10 | Triston McKenzie | 22.8 | AA | RHP | 2020 | 45 |
| 11 | Luis Oviedo | 21.0 | A | RHP | 2022 | 45 |
| 12 | Sam Hentges | 23.8 | AA | LHP | 2021 | 45 |
| 13 | Ethan Hankins | 20.0 | A | RHP | 2023 | 45 |
| 14 | Logan Allen | 23.0 | MLB | LHP | 2020 | 45 |
| 15 | Emmanuel Clase | 22.2 | MLB | RHP | 2020 | 40+ |
| 16 | Angel Martinez | 18.3 | R | SS | 2023 | 40+ |
| 17 | Junior Sanquintin | 18.4 | R | SS | 2023 | 40+ |
| 18 | Aaron Bracho | 19.1 | A- | LF | 2024 | 40+ |
| 19 | Gabriel Rodriguez | 18.2 | R | 3B | 2023 | 40+ |
| 20 | Carlos Vargas | 20.6 | A- | RHP | 2023 | 40+ |
| 21 | Jose Tena | 19.2 | R | SS | 2024 | 40+ |
| 22 | Scott Moss | 25.6 | AAA | LHP | 2020 | 40+ |
| 23 | Alexfri Planez | 18.8 | R | RF | 2024 | 40 |
| 24 | Nick Sandlin | 23.4 | AAA | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
| 25 | Richard Palacios | 23.0 | A | 2B | 2022 | 40 |
| 26 | Jose Fermin | 21.1 | A | SS | 2023 | 40 |
| 27 | Bobby Bradley | 24.0 | MLB | DH | 2019 | 40 |
| 28 | Eli Morgan | 24.0 | AAA | RHP | 2021 | 40 |
| 29 | Kyle Nelson | 23.9 | AAA | LHP | 2020 | 40 |
| 30 | Yordys Valdes | 18.8 | R | SS | 2024 | 40 |
| 31 | Cody Morris | 23.5 | A+ | RHP | 2022 | 40 |
| 32 | Will Benson | 21.9 | A+ | RF | 2022 | 40 |
| 33 | Hunter Gaddis | 22.1 | A- | RHP | 2023 | 40 |
| 34 | Jean Carlos Mejia | 23.7 | A+ | RHP | 2020 | 40 |
| 35 | Yu-Cheng Chang | 24.8 | MLB | 3B | 2020 | 40 |
| 36 | Adam Scott | 24.6 | AA | LHP | 2022 | 40 |
| 37 | Ernie Clement | 24.2 | AAA | SS | 2020 | 40 |
| 38 | Andres Melendez | 19.0 | R | C | 2022 | 40 |
| 39 | Cam Hill | 26.0 | AAA | RHP | 2020 | 35+ |
| 40 | Jared Robinson | 25.5 | AAA | RHP | 2020 | 35+ |
| 41 | Bryan Lavastida | 21.5 | A | C | 2022 | 35+ |
| 42 | Nick Mikolajchak | 22.5 | A- | RHP | 2023 | 35+ |
| 43 | Steven Kwan | 22.7 | A+ | CF | 2022 | 35+ |
| 44 | Jhonkensy Noel | 18.8 | R | 1B | 2022 | 35+ |
| 45 | Victor Nova | 20.4 | R | 3B | 2023 | 35+ |
| 46 | Johnathan Rodriguez | 20.5 | A- | RF | 2023 | 35+ |
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
Anthony Gose
Anthony Gose, LHP
Gose lost rookie eligibility back in 2012 as an outfielder, so he’s not eligible for this list, but he deserves to be mentioned because of the likelihood he impacts Cleveland’s bullpen this year. He was a two-way prospect who Philadelphia drafted in the 2008 second round, and Gose quickly reached Hi-A as a power/speed/arm center field prospect. He was traded to Toronto as part of the Roy Halladay deal in 2010. Some strikeout-related statistical yellow flags emerged once he reached the upper levels of the minors and his bat stalled out against big league pitching. Toronto traded him to Detroit for Devon Travis and things spiraled from there, culminating in a dugout confrontation with Toledo manager Lloyd McClendon in the middle of 2016. The following year, Detroit moved him to the mound. Gose was throwing very hard almost immediately (he was up to 97 in high school) but only pitched in 11 games at Hi-A all year. He elected free agency after the season and has since bounced around, first to Texas on a minor league deal, then Rule 5’d and returned by Houston, and then to Cleveland in 2019. He was touching 100 this spring, he has a plus curveball, and he had struck out nine in 5.2 innings before the shutdown. He could have a huge impact on Cleveland’s bullpen.
Young Hit Tool Sleepers
Jose Pastrano, SS
Jonathan Lopez, 3B
Christian Cairo, 2B
Joe Naranjo, 1B
Luis Durango Jr., OF
The most common Cleveland prospect trope is the contact-oriented infielder; here are several more. Pastrano signed for $1.5 million last year. He’s 17.7 on date of publication, and like a lot of the players in this system, he’s a switch-hitting infielder with advanced feel for contact and a medium frame. I’m a little lower on Pastrano than others because I think he’s a 4 athlete. Lopez was sent to Mahoning Valley at 19 and dealt with some injuries last year. He has a sweet lefty swing and I think he has had some of his playing time crowded out by other talented youngsters in this system. Cairo is Miguel Cairo’s son. I think he has a utility ceiling based on the tools. Naranjo was a SoCal pop-up bat who needs to get there by way of an elite hit tool. He doesn’t have much power projection so the contact has to carry the whole profile, à la Jake Bauers‘ prospectdom. Durango has a tweener fourth outfielder vibe but could be a regular if he ends up with a plus bat. He signed for $500,000 last year.
40-man Depth Arms
Jerson Ramirez, RHP
Jordan Stephens, RHP
Kirk McCarty, LHP
Raymond Burgos, LHP
Ramirez is 21 and was the last cut from the main section of the list. He’s only up to 95 coming out of the bullpen and the body is pretty maxed out, but I love how his arm works and how athletic he is, and think he might yet throw harder. I’m staying on Stephens to some degree. He was a 40 FV swingman type, then had a bad 2019. McCarty is another lefty whose fastball has huge carry and misses bats even though it’s 88-92. His breaking ball has vertical action. Burgos, the youngest of this group at age 21, throws strikes, has an average breaking ball, and a chance for an above-average changeup. The velo is a little light for the main section of the list.
Toolsy, but Contact/Profile Concerns
Quentin Holmes, CF
Oscar Gonzalez, RF
Yainer Diaz, C
Will Bartlett, 1B
Holmes can fly but still has very limited feel for baseball at just shy of age 21. Gonzalez is a big-framed corner outfield prospect with huge power and one of the least-selective approaches in pro baseball. Diaz is a college-aged catcher who was far too physical for the AZL, where he did most of his 2019 statistical damage. He does have above-average power but is also quite swing-happy and has a hole on the outer half. Bartlett, 19, has 55 raw but is a low probability, right/right first base fit.
System Overview
For a while there, it was clear Cleveland was willing to pay a talent premium for young big leaguers and near-ready prospects. Trading Tahnaj Thomas for Jordan Luplow and Jhon Torres for Oscar Mercado, among others, was at least partially motivated by the org’s competitive window with its 2017 core. Last year, the opposite started to occur. The Victor Nova and Andres Melendez acquisitions were motivated by 40-man space, but it was also the first time in a while that we got to see Cleveland’s pro department target low-level players.
The amateur arm of the org shows clear patterns of player acquisition, which I’ve gone on about ad nauseum for a while. They seem to end up with a lot of very young players (Jordan Brown, Raynel Delgado, Korey Holland), contact-oriented hitters (both domestic and international), pitchers with odd deliveries (there are several sidearmers in this system, and remember this org used a Rule 5 pick on Hoby Milner), and prospects who performed as underclassmen and regressed in their draft year.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
David, thanks for your excellent work. Your professionalism is one of best reasons to visit FanGraphs.
I mean Eric wrote this but I am a fan of David’s professionalism as well.
E9
Thanks to Spike and apologies to Eric. Keep ’em coming Eric.
I feel like that Nolan Jones write-up could have been about Jim Thome 30 years ago.
I’ve generally made that same connection between Thome and Jones. Similar type of skills and size. And both started off at 3rd – Thome obviously moved to 1st and Jones may need to move as well.
Interestingly, Thome was a 13th round pick who rocketed through the minor league system, debuting at age 20. Jones has put up relatively similar stats in the minors but the Indians have been a lot more cautious about moving him up.
Unfortunately I don’t think Jones will have that Thome did
Or Russell Branyan 20-25 years ago.
These guys are usually a whole lot more like Russell Branyan than Jim Thome.
Fair point though Branyan was hardly a bad player. 12.1 career WAR in 3398 PAs (2.1 WAR per 600). That’s better than most prospects do.
Starting to get sad that we’re running out of teams for this series…..
I’m sad that most of these minor leaguers aren’t going to get to play this year. Really wonder how they’re going to do next year’s write-up with so little to go on.
Eric said last chat that he wouldn’t be shocked to see “a” fall league (as in, something besides the AFL) come about. That’d be most welcomed! I’m curious if the international winter leagues are going to be on the table or not.
Wow. Thanks. Now I’m depressed for the youngsters. 😔
At least most minor league players now have more take home pay via unemployment than they do via endless bus rides and McD’s. Oops, apologies to a vocal minority of commenters – I do realize that looking at hard financial data now constitutes politicizing baseball, or being decidedly “anti-business”.
How much does a guy like Clase get dinged, beyond the delayed ETA, for the positive drug test? Do we assume some of his success was tied to it and will go away if he (presumably) stays off it? Or do you just ignore it, since we probably can’t know anyway?
Thanks for these.
– Whatever happened to Brady Aiken’s comeback?
– Espino looks particularly intriguing on this list if his success continues.
– With Freeman and Rocchio in the wings, and Chang to stop-gap, at least they have a contingency for the departure of Lindor, as much as it saddens me.
– I totally missed the boat on Anthony Gose’s resurgence as a pitcher. Good for him, and thanks for explaining that in detail, because I would have assumed he was a different Gose.
– It seems like the Tribe has a good crop of high-upside relievers coming through the system that will supplement after Hand’s departure after this year.
He’s an article from December saying that Aiken is taking time away and that the Indians were unsure if he would return. Hard to believe that he’s still only 23 years old.
https://www.cleveland.com/tribe/2019/12/cleveland-indians-no1-pick-brady-aiken-may-have-reached-the-end-of-the-road.html
https://cleveland.cbslocal.com/2017/09/22/indians-rebuilding-former-top-overall-pick-from-scratch/
This was the last report I could find on him actually pitching. It sounds like he just never recovered from his injuries, which led to him needing to completely rebuild his pitching motion. The velocity he showed in high school never came back post injuries. It’s amazing he’s still 23, long shot, but it would be awesome if he can find his way back.
He pitched after that rebuilding but the results were disastrous. Granted, it was just two appearances last year in A-Ball. But in 2/3 of an inning, he walked 6 batters and threw 2 wild pitches. Ouch!
hey, Danny Hultzen got there last year. we can always hope.
Danny “High Floor, Fast Mover” Hultzen (2011)
I know Espino is young and throws hard but that pitching motion is worrying to me. I know long deliveries aren’t as big a concern now as when Ricky Henderson and Tim Raines and their friends had the green light to run all day but guys can take second against him all day, and if the command is an issue long-term (which it could be with the delivery) lots of guys will get opportunities to do that.
Thank you! So excited to read this today.
Great list, thank you Eric! System’s in a good spot with viable prospects at all levels now.
I’m just wondering if (or why) a list of notables was left off, since we were promised the inclusion of RHR Robert Broom and OF Trenton Brooks in your chat on Friday. The prospect nerd in me was hoping for a deep system name dropping bonanza of Broom, Lingos, K. Kelly, A. Pinto, Waldron etc.
Only other omissions of note for me are OF Ka’ai Tom, who outperformed D. Johnson in AA/AAA and RHP Juan Mota, who’s touching 100mph, maybe INF Marcos Gonzalez, but that’s very deep nitpicking. It’s an excellent list when Kwan is on it.
Up the list, I’m particularly excited about Angel Martinez and Bracho, between theirs and Tena’s report, I’m getting a Jose Ramirez vibe. Fingers crossed.
Otoh, t’s very disappointing to see G. Rodriguez’ hit tool downgraded all the way to 40 so quickly after signing for an Indians IFA record 2+ million, but the early contact struggles explains it. A Schoop ceiling doesn’t excite me, even if he gets there.
Personally, I’m a sucker for the Jose Fermin, Ernie Clement and Eli Morgan/Kyle Nelson profiles and always end up higher on those. Vice versa, I’m bearish on the Benson, Planez or Hentges types. I actually prefer Johnathan Rodriguez/J. Noel as a playable future power bats, because they flash a little bit of everything. We’ll see.
Yu Chang, oh my has he fallen, but his performance just never caught up to his hype when he entered full season ball.
I disagree a bit on Carlos Vargas and believe he’ll remain a SP. He improved his control. He’s the Daniel Johnson of pitchers, if that makes sense.
JC Mejia looked fantastic in ST (Ka’ai Tom too btw, just saying), good arsenal and control of it. I’m buying.
Gose’s stuff was eye popping this spring. If he can consistently have 40 control, he’s an elite lefty setup arm.
Fun read of this borderline top 10 system. Thanks again
Good call on Ka’ai Tom. After looking at his stats I figured he must be very limited defensively in order for him to not make the list. However, I’m seeing in a chat last year that Eric said he’s a “good defensive OF with contact skills”. Taking that into account and considering he but up wRC+ of 162 and 132 at AA/AAA last year, I find it hard to believe he’s not at least at 35 or HM. Granted he’s a little on the older side but I have to think he’s not too far away from making an major league appearance and it wouldn’t surprise me if he hit well enough to stay around.
Indians left Tom exposed in the Rule 5 draft and no one bit. Seems like someone would have taken a flyer on him, after his big season at AAA. Makes me think that there must be some sort of flaw in his game that doesn’t show up in the stats.
If they play at all this year, with that big taxi squad he’ll get some MLB action.
Fwiw, but of the fringe OF group in ST, Tom had the best ABs outside of Franmil Reyes. Yeah, all teams bypassing him diminish his prospects, I guess. Otoh, Oviedo, Cam Hill and J. Robinson were also Rule 5 eligible, weren’t selected, but still made the list. It happens. Tom plays all 3 OF spots capably and offers some power/speed in his tiny body.
You can even retrace his breakout in his batted ball development, it didn’t come out of nowhere. He also missed almost a complete season to an early season injury in his first full season, which helps explain his late blooming.
Eric even took notice of him when he played in the AFL. It’s a bit mysterious for Indians fans why he can’t make any lists or even HM.
Actually Prospects1500 has Tom rated as the Indians’ 26th best prospect. So there’s at least one ranking service that likes him.
https://www.prospects1500.com/al-central/indians/cleveland-indians-2020-top-50-prospects/
Great writeup. I think there is a small error in the Tena part about him not being in the 40+ tier.
Big fan of this system, already believer in the org’s ability to coach up guys with SP tools but now they seem to have found multiple power relievers that would have come in handy during their most exciting 2010s seasons. They really seem to keep it simple, piling up rare big league profiles young in the hopes of hitting on some: Jones looks like a possible lineup anchoring kind of prospect as a giant Iso heavy LHH who started off the traditional LHH spots of COF and 1B, lots of young switch hitters doing well early, Bo Naylor’s making good on being a serious LHH catcher prospect, most of their best pitchers can spin, the trio of elite HS RHs (Espino, Hankins, and McKenzie) all have high quality SP tools still, there’s a bunch of relatively toolsy ML ready guys like Morgan, Johnson, Clase, and Karinchak, plus Logan Allen seems like he might be underrated with an interesting combo of durability, a good mix of good LH velocity and multiple offspeeds, excellent ARLs, and strong seeming minor league performances….
Appreciate how you keep these reads long and quality, think some writing adjustments were made for this one that improved the quality even more? Either way looking forward to the last 5!!
Also hurry up and send Lindor and McKenzie to the Cubs for Hoerner, Marquez, and Davis! Think of the savings!
Also also would not be the least but surprised if Anthony Gose finally clicks as a pitcher with this org
Fun Will Benson trivia! The last person to do this was Garrett Jones in 2002, who became a solid platoon DH guy faking it in the field for a few years as a part of Pittsburgh’s pre-FA McCutchen window.
“Cleveland Indians prospect Will Benson became the first Midwest League player in nearly two decades to hit four home runs in a single game, bashing four long balls — including a grand slam — and driving in eight runs for the Class A Lake County Captains on Thursday, April 18, 2019, at Classic Park in Eastlake, Ohio.”
Benson had a 5th at bat, but – you guessed it – he went down on strikes.
https://sabr.org/latest/will-benson-slams-his-way-4-hr-night-lake-county-captains
McKenzie has two inches on Carl Edwards Jr. and is 5lb lighter, so if he ever makes it to the majors Edwards Jr. is gonna have to give up his “String Bean Slinger” Players Weekend Jersey. There can only be one.
Is head chopping involved?