Top of the Order: Could This Be the (Temporary) End of Rays Magic?
Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
On Tuesday, I wrote about how the Brewers have been able to leverage largely unheralded depth into an excellent start to their season. In a conversation about the column with one of my friends the following day, I referred to the Brewers as “Rays North” for their ability to extract the most out of players and pile up wins. But really, the Brewers are paving their own trail and the Rays are at something of a crossroads.
Entering a huge four-game series against the Orioles on Friday, the Rays are 31-31, and 13 games back in the AL East. They’ve got 100 games left, so there’s no need to panic just yet, but they’re at risk of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2018, and for their first losing season since 2017.
The ever-present depth that has defined the Rays for much of Kevin Cash’s tenure just hasn’t been there, especially on the pitching side. The bullpen, which has been fodder for cheeky memes whenever the Rays pick a reliever up off waivers (I love tweeting “1.80 ERA coming” for every arm they snag off the scrap heap), has plunged to 29th in WAR, with the team simply not possessing the breadth of arms that it has in years past. The middle relievers have been especially troublesome; while Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Garrett Cleavinger have all been excellent once the ball has gotten to them in the late innings, the bridge to them is crumbling.
And their starters aren’t helping matters. Only Ryan Pepiot and Zack Littell have ERAs below 4.00, and Aaron Civale and Taj Bradley have been hit especially hard. Bradley has tantalizing potential and can carve through hitters with the best of them when he’s on — he struck out eight batters in his first three innings against the Red Sox two starts ago — but when he’s off for an inning or two he gets absolutely hammered. He’s allowed seven homers across five starts. That inconsistency has fueled a rotation that ranks 26th in WAR, and unlike in prior years, the Rays don’t have reinforcements on the way. Joe Rock is their only prospect pitching particularly well at Triple-A.
It’s a bit more encouraging — if not by much — that Tampa Bay sits 19th in the majors by position player WAR, and maybe that’s enough to conjure up some Rays magic. However, I’m just not sure this offense should even be this good. Isaac Paredes is almost singlehandedly carrying the bats, with last year’s core of Yandy Díaz (99 wRC+), Randy Arozarena (83 wRC+), and Josh Lowe (109 wRC+ in just 15 games thanks to a couple IL trips) failing to support him. I don’t think Díaz is suddenly an average bat; he won the batting title in 2023, continues to hit the ball hard, and still makes great swing decisions. Arozarena is a different story. His swing-and-miss issues and newfound inability to optimally hit the ball (his sweet-spot percentage is in the first percentile) don’t exactly give me hope that a turnaround is imminent.
So, where do the Rays go from here? Many other teams would be relieved if they still had a .500 record as plenty of their most important players underperformed; those clubs might bank on some positive regression and decide to upgrade their roster before the trade deadline. But that’s not how the Rays operate, especially in an extremely tough AL East.
Complicating matters is their payroll, which is currently at $97 million, by far the highest of the six years for which we have payroll data at RosterResource. While teams will never open the books and say exactly what a particular payroll means for financial losses and gains, owner Stuart Sternberg claimed before the season that the high payroll would lead to “real losses.” Sternberg added that he views those losses as worth it because he’d “like to keep [the successes] rolling,” and I have no real reason to doubt that he means that; the Rays have been good for years, and he’d surely like to have a talented team when the franchise’s new stadium ostensibly opens in 2028. What I’m not sure, though, is if augmenting this deeply flawed team to win this season is the best move. For the first time in a while, I could see the Rays going in the complete opposite direction.
The Rays are never ones to make huge additions at the deadline — it’s more complementary players like Nelson Cruz and Civale, and longer-term plays for untapped potential like Arozarena and Fairbanks — but that doesn’t mean they might not make huge subtractions. Tampa Bay is famous for never having untouchables, and despite his anemic performance, teams are apparently quite interested in Arozarena. He has the third-highest salary on the team, and I have no reason to believe the Rays also wouldn’t entertain offers for their two highest earners, Zach Eflin and Díaz, if the return is commensurate and the front office thinks that such a move would be the best path toward improving in 2025 and beyond. On a smaller scale, if the Rays are roughly .500 by the time the deadline rolls around, I’d be surprised to see Amed Rosario, Shawn Armstrong, Phil Maton, Chris Devenski, and Harold Ramírez still on the team.
As usual, what the Rays end up doing at the deadline might lead to some head-scratching; plenty of their moves during their stretch of success seemingly came out of nowhere, and some of those surprises hardly made sense at the time. But this is an organization that is always thinking about what’s next rather than pushing all its chips in for a single season. And there’s no reason to think that this won’t be a quick reset rather than a long rebuild. Next year, ace Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen are expected to return to the rotation after recovering from elbow injuries that will cost them most or all of this season. Also, the Rays should have über-prospect Junior Caminero, who is currently battling quad issues in Triple-A, healthy and ready to contribute in 2025. And don’t forget about Xavier Isaac, who’s tearing through the minors himself and could be an option for the big league club as soon as next year. Playing for next season is probably the smart move for the Rays at this point, and if that means trading away some talent from this year’s club, then so be it.
Jon Becker manages RosterResource's team payroll pages, assists with all other aspects of RosterResource, and also dabbles in creating new features as a Junior Developer. Follow him at your own peril: @jonbecker_ on Twitter and @becker.fangraphs.com on Bluesky.
Not to mention the Rays have a Pythagorean record of 26-36 and also played one of the league’s easiest schedules the first couple of months so they’re truly worse than their record.
They’ve certainly been bad, but the projections still think they’re an above average team – .507 W% with a .514 SOS. It’s not in their character to totally give up in that situation. It’s more like they’d trade for relievers who could become starters or something like that. Something like Phil Maton for Will Klein. I’ve no idea whether either side would do that.
Yeah, but is ZiPs factoring in that they got swept by the White Sox?
Even the White Sox accidentally win multiple games in a row sometimes.
The unfortunate elephant (not) in the room here is Wander Franco – adding a bona fide franchise cornerstone shortstop to this team would make a big difference… I guess his absence at least gives them a few extra pennies to move around in the future?
He’s only making $2 million this year, so the fact that his contact is almost die to be canceled going forward doesn’t really do their payroll, just keeps it from going up. By the way, it’s still nuts that the last time he was mentioned in a Fangraphs article was when he ranked number 2 overall in last year’s trade value.
I’m surprised the author didn’t mention Carson Williams either, who is a top 30 prospect in how own right and currently doing well in AA.
And Baz.
Obviously Franco’s stench permeates the room, but his loss doesn’t explain why they have only one above avg bat on their roster right now, and their pitching health luck has finally worn out (though they absolutely fleeced LAD to get Pepiot for Manny Margot; is that the 2nd worst trade of Friedman’s life?).
To me, the biggest sign the Rays are punting on the season was keeping Junior Caminero down despite the offense being a disaster. Is he gonna do worse than the guys playing now? Yes, I can hear “Why win 77 games instead of 74 when we can aim for 84 and a WC berth next year?” from the front office, but only because their stadium is so empty.
I do like the parallels between TBR and MIL, though…I think a lot of people would have chosen TBR to have the better record (or, at least, to be a more competitive team).
Would it shock anyone if TBR has a better record than MIL moving forward? Baseball is just so much variance. We have the Dodgers who even when they look bad are still 39-25 and basically everyone else
Think you forgot that the Dodgers got Glasnow for Pepiot.
Was going to post the same – Deluca was a nice get in addition to Pepiot, but Pepiot was the headliner in that deal.
I was wondering if that post was a joke or not. How can someone “forget” THAT?
I’ll never forget when the U.S. defeated Romania in WWII.
I am assuming that comment was referencing the previous comment regarding “ Pepiot for Manny Margot”, and not a direct response to my comment that one shouldn’t have forgotten the headliner in the deal was Glasnow, right? If so, that’s pretty funny.
Him doing that really horrible thing certainly doesn’t help the Rays. However, while he’s an impact player at a valuable position on the diamond, he’s just one guy in a very team driven sport. The other 25 players got along fine before he made his debut, and they were able to make the playoffs last year while he’s been dealing with the consequences of that really horrible thing. It sucks for the team undoubtedly, he’s the one player in the last decade they had committed to long term, and one that they hoped to build around. That said, life comes at you fast and it’s on the Rays to figure it out.
The Franco loss is huge. This is all a different story but for that.
It is a surprise that TB is .500 after all they have dealt with and how poorly they have performed. They have two months to see if the returners can build any sort of momentum and if it doesn’t gel we should expect to see some of the players mentioned being moved. A down season would provide ample opportunity to trial the handful of prospects who they have tried to integrate, but who have not really distinguished themselves to this point. The most interesting thing about this year’s club is that the team got away from what made them successful. Moving players with dwindling control coming off peak years they were unlikely to repeat in order to “keep the band together.” Predictably, that has resulted in worse performance without the hope of backfill turning into future solid foundation.
Most fans who only follow the team casually say the team does this to control costs, but it really is about cashing in on players at ideal times in order to keep things going. Instead, they are older, worse and more expensive with less flexibility now. So yeah, guys like Yandy, Randy, BLowe should be mentioned as underperformers, but it is difficult to see the team selling low on any of the group when future control remains. JLowe hasn’t really gotten in a groove yet, though he is good enough to carry a club if he can get there.
The real wild card is Isaac Paredes. Yes, he has been their best hitter. Yes, he has three years of arb remaining as a super-two guy. He might be the best player on the team right now. For all these reasons he is likely the most valuable trade chip in the sense that he could bring the most back. Third base is a real need for many clubs including some with the highest aspirations. TB has strong depth at the position and the expected return of Junior Caminero lines up fairly well with the trade deadline window.
For a team utterly bereft of power it would hurt to lose a good player who does a ton of work in that field, but he is likely their best opportunity to get back the kind of players who can help both long and short term. The Rays have roughly six weeks to see where this thing goes. There is a good chance the pieces start fitting together better allowing the club to bolster their wild card chances, but if that falls flat we should expect some of the moves that have been mostly tabled for the past couple of years. The last two months, then, would be something of a return for longtime Rays fans who took solace in seeing the kids play long after the season stopped mattering, and it would be the kind of step that would allow for this to be more of a down year than the sort of half decade of irrelevance most other teams turn to once they run low on powder.
Diamondbacks, Cubs, Dodgers, Mariners, Yankees, Blue Jays could all plausibly be interested in Paredes. Astros if they trade Bregman. On the other hand he might be more valuable in the offseason
Paredes to Cubs would be amusing, especially after the org’s brief reunion with trademate Jeimer Candelario last year. You can go home again.
I think the Rays would have to be blown away by an offer to trade Paredes. Doesn’t mean they won’t trade him, but a team has to be really in love with him to do it. More than one FV50 prospect as the headliner, most likely, and also at least four prospects in total. The Rays still hope to be good in the next 3 years, and he’s under team control for a while.
Would a team actually give up that much for Paredes? I don’t know. The Cubs might be willing to trade Matt Shaw since Shaw isn’t a clean fit at third base, and they have some other very good prospects who don’t have an obvious fit on the team long-term like Alcantara. The Dodgers might be willing to trade some set of Rushing, Liranzo, and Cartaya (and injured pitching, I guess).
In the offseason there might be more suitors. The Brewers might be willing to trade Misiorowski and Quero for him in the offseason when Adames leaves (assuming he leaves, he probably will). The Mets have a boatload of interesting position player prospects who are highly regarded but not hitting at the moment. They probably need Baty and Vientos to struggle for a whole year before trading for a replacement.
I think these are the only teams that have both the means and the motive.
Please name the last position player on an expiring deal who was dealt for 2+ 50 EV prospects. The Os didn’t get anything close to that for *prime Manny Machado.* The Dodgers sent approx. what you’re describing for a half season of Max Scherzer *and* 1.5 seasons of Trea Turner. I do not believe a franchise will value a few mos of Isaac Paredes more than those guys.
It does seem unlikely that a team will give up that much for him, but that’s what it would probably take to land him. Paredes has something like 3.5 years of team control left! That makes him harder to value, but a guy on pace for something like a 6 win season with 3.5 years of team control left is going to be way more valuable than half a season of Machado, and probably similar to 1.5 seasons of Trea Turner and half a season of Scherzer.
And Paredes is only 25, so at minimal risk to decline over those 3.5 years. Seems like a very valuable asset to me.
Zips/Steamer have Paredes on pace for 4.5-5 wins. After 4.3 wins last year, he probably commands between what Sale and Quintana returned, maybe closer to Quintana since he’s a bat. Thus, TBR should expect an FV60 and FV50 in return, with maybe 1 or 2 FV40’s as well.
This could probably work in return for Luis Robert too.
Might want to stick to reading silently. Paredes has three years of control after this one and should be a highly desired player even in an era where his performance above expectations will be recognized. After regressing his ball in play performance to others he is still an above average hitter of both hands with strong walk and strikeout rates to go with the pull pop that even casuals are aware of. He is an average defender and young enough to think he will not fall apart there before reaching free agency. The remaining upside is that he more frequently embraces going the other way to steal a few more hits.
I think he would be a high demand player for several teams like the Cubs, Jays, Yankees, and Mariners, who are current contenders, while others would make more sense in the offseason, yeah. The Astros could be really interesting as 1B has been a mess and the thought of Paredes throwing parades in the Crawford Boxes has to be pretty enticing.
Of course the team isn’t itching to trade the guy for whatever they can get, but I think his skillset, control and position would lead to getting a fair price. An out of the box thought would be the Angels moving Rendon to DH to get whatever they can out of him, filling the glaring need at 3B with Isaac Paredes and giving back the 3+ years of Reid Detmers for TB to try to figure out alongside Ben Joyce to see if he can stretch out as a starter. I have no idea if that’s fair to someone else, but it seems reasonable, and I’d love to see those two arms go to an org that understands how pitchers work in any way whatsoever.
The Angels trade for Paredes doesn’t make sense. The team needs a rebuild.
Then again, the trade not making sense probably means it makes sense to the Angels.
I don’t see any chance the Yankees trade for a dead-pull righty with 40 Raw.
Paredes is really good and a lot of fun, but those 350 foot Tropicana bombs are routine flyouts in YS3.
It’s a good point, and makes Houston an even better landing spot for the same reason. I don’t think the preference would be to bundle the players, but Astros would likely have interest in Zach Eflin, as well. The problem is it’s tough to see a competitive package for either.
For several years Tampa’s upper levels were so loaded that trading vets for near-ready prospects was constrained by a severe 40-man roster crunch. I ask those more familiar with the Rays, has that pressure eased of late? Is there more room now to trade Yandy/Randy/etc. for 2025 contributors or are they more likely to seek bulk returns from (sub) A-ball?
Trading for a >AA prospect makes sense financially but doesn’t do them much good if it means they have to leave unprotected a similar player they already have and like.
The names they have to protect over the next two years who don’t have a big role on the big league roster right now are Caminero (probably will be in the majors next year, already on 40 man), Carson Williams (might be in the majors before Dec 2025), Curtis Mead (already on 40 man, probably will be in majors next year), and Dominic Keegan (might be in the majors before Dec 2025). I’d add Baz and Mason Montgomery to the list except that I don’t think they’ll be in the minors next year and you need to stash pitchers at AAA anyway.
That makes me think that the Rays probably could trade for guys who will need to be added to the 40-man immediately or in short order.
Thanks!
I’m unpleasantly surprised that DeLuca hasn’t turned out to be a pleasant surprise.
Their playoff odds are 25%, so a complete teardown isn’t warranted. But trading expiring contracts for middle relievers, and making room for Caminero somewhere seems reasonable except I don’t know where that is. Caminero for Garrett Crochet would be bold but Crochet isn’t controlled for as long as they would like.
The Rays need Caminero’s bat more than Crochet’s arm.
The risks of the Rays’ pitching construction has always been apparent. They’ve typically targeted high-risk arms with medium-to-high upside, leaning very heavily on their bullpen, and relievers themselves are unpredictable. This year, despite not having a strong bullpen, they are 4th in innings given to the bullpen. There is no major plan B if the bullpen isn’t doing well.
I’ve been wondering when their rotation would finally blow up entirely and/or their bullpen would be so taxed from entering in the 3rd inning that the whole house of cards had fallen apart. But I had predicted it for something like 3 years straight and finally just gave up. I think that this might not be a common occurrence but it is a risk that always has to be considered.
I think losing Springs, McClanahan, Rasmussen, to name a few, last year was that implosion.
I don’t think the TB bullpen IP is an indicator of overuse. The opener/follower use is unique to TB and it creates an obvious need to plan ahead and affects the annual IP ranking of both ‘bullpen’ and ‘rotation’. But it is not like a regular ‘overuse’ of a bullpen where a rotation just can’t pitch as planned and where the bullpen is just full of 1 inning arms that aren’t getting rested and are up/down in bullpen even if they don’t get into the game.
It appears to me that IF TB is playing in the high-risk SP pool, it is doing so by reducing the IP load of all its SP. Not just the ‘follower’ types. Only four SP’s have pitched more than 125 IP in any single year since 2020. Which seems like a reasonable way to truly reduce that risk and not just a playing with explosives strategy.
What has become very clear over the last few years is what is happening league-wide. SP’s are pitching fewer innings. But injuries are up. IMO because SP focus is now unduly on velocity. They get pulled whenever the velo drops or might drop. And all of the past measures of a workhorse starting pitcher – complete games, wins, quality starts, are simply disappearing. In exchange for – more time spent rehabbing surgery?
I think this a failure of all MLB teams not just some unique inevitability of TB.
I think the Rays have to consider trading Zack Littell, who only has 1.5 years of team control left and has never pitched like this except for the Rays. Teams are dying for starters, even ones pitching over their heads, and he’s been solid by any and all metrics. Probably they listen on any and all relievers too.
On the position player side I think there’s a pretty good chance they trade Brandon Lowe. He’s hitting pretty well for a second baseman and while they have 2.5 years of team control left, he gets a bit more expensive by Rays standards in 2025 and has had some injury problems which make his availability a question mark. Beyond him, I think Amed Rosario is the only position player they are likely trade and they probably won’t get that much for him.
Littell is the guy I’m hoping the Brewers can snag.
Since becoming a SP last year he has gotten similar results (89 ERA- | 88 FIP-) to someone like Jesus Luzardo (93 ERA- | 87 FIP-) but shouldn’t cost as much to acquire since he does it by limiting walks (33 BB%+ for Littell) versus racking up strikeouts (120 K%+ for Luzardo) and has one year less team control remaining.
Littell is a good target though the Rays are likely to force a prospect back you’d rather not lose. I’d like to see what the Crew’s pitching developers could do with a chronic underachiever like Griffin Canning. Perhaps not an ideal midseason addition but the SP need certainly will persist into 2025. And the Angels’ front office isn’t exactly the second coming of Branch Rickey.
Ten days ago it seemed a foregone conclusion that Brandon Lowe’s options would be declined following this season. He has shown some of the customary pop since then, but the next time he hits the IL will probably signal the end of his tenure with the club. I might be wrong, but I don’t think teams are jumping for a guy with such a lengthy history of lower body injuries. It’s a shame, because few guys get as hot as Brandon, and fewer still seem like as nice of a person.
I don’t think they would be getting an elite prospect back or anything even close to it. The injuries are tough to work around. For that reason, he’s too expensive for the Rays because of the injury risk, but I can imagine a team like the Dodgers trading for him if they’ve given up on Gavin Lux. Although the Dodgers haven’t really given up on him as the strong-side platoon option yet, so who knows.
I also think the Red Sox and Mariners could be interested, especially since it wouldn’t cost an elite prospect.
I agree. Looks like a Dipoto target.
I think if the Rays like what they see from Springs’ rehab, they absolutely could move a productive starter. If they got back a package of no-name relievers that they are able to work their typical magic on, things could turn around nicely.
Harold Ramirez DFA…
Fun trade chain with the Rays:
6/3/03 – Rays draft Delmon Young at #1 overall. Young never quite panned out but did make it to the majors with the Rays.
11/28/07 – Rays trade Young, Brendan Harris, Jason Pridie to the Twins for Eddie Morlan, Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, Bartlett had1 good year with the Rays but was traded for pretty much nothing. The get was Garza who pitched 3 good years for the Rays accumulating 8.6 bWAR (using b-ref as it’s easier to follow transactions there)
1/8/11 – Rays trade Garza, Fernando Perez, and Zac Rosscup to the Cubs for Hak-Ju Lee, Chris Archer, Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer. Chirinos, Fuld and Guyer didn’t really return anything for the Rays but Archer pitched 6.5 years for the Rays accumulating 12.4 bWAR plus a ROY, 2 AS selections and a handful of CY votes in 2015.
7/31/18 – Rays trade Archer to the Pirates for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and a PTBNL who turns out to be Shane Baz. The outcome on Baz has yet to be written, but Meadows played 3.5 years for the Rays with 6.6 bWAR, an AS appearance and a couple down-ballot MVP votes in 2019 and 2021. Glasnow pitched 5.5 years totaling 8.6 bWAR (he pitched well but never enough IP to earn any accolades).
Here, the trade tree branches in 2 (well, 3 if you include Baz but he hasn’t even made the majors yet so we”ll have to wait to see how that pans out).
4/5/22 – Rays trade Meadows to the Tigers for Isaac Paredes who has accumulated 8.5 bWAR in a little under 2.5 years if you include this year.
12/16/23 – Rays trade Glasnow and Manuel Margot and $4M to the Dodgers for Ryan Pepiot and Johnny Deluca. Pepiot has 0.7 bWAR this year and Deluca 0.1 bWAR.
(Margot’s trade tree is far less exciting and only goes back to the Rays drafting Brock Burke in 2014 and trading him for Emilio Pagan in 2018 and then Pagan for Margot in 2020 with some other spare parts included along the way).
This is vastly oversimplifying so don’t bog down in the details (like the money involved) but that is 16.5 years and at least 45.5 bWAR (I left out a few minor pieces like Bartlett) and counting (figure at least another 4-5 years for Pepiot, DeLuca and Baz to add on to that) for a disappointing #1 overall pick who would total 1.4 bWAR in the 8 years after the Rays traded him.
Six years old and still a great read https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24301269/delmon-young-trade-tree-how-flip-bust-15-years-talent
I literally had no idea that article existed. I undersold some of the lesser players in that deal, especially Bartlett. It’s probably closer to 60 WAR.
Let’s see if they can have an extended run of health with both Lowes, Walls, and a few arms returning like Poche and Eflin. They also have Baz on the way. And Bradley will be fine.
However, the loss of a franchise caliber player in Wander hurts big time
One other note on Bradley. He’s faced division opponents in 5 of his 7 starts. In this era of a more balanced schedule that’s incredibly flukey and lack of familiarity helps pitchers more than hitters.
His HR rate is unsustainable.
Plus Mr. FV 80 putting himself in jail doesn’t help the situation either.