Top of the Order: Previewing the Option Decisions for NL Teams and Players
Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
After taking a look at the qualifying offer decisions that have to be made shortly after the conclusion of the World Series, I figured now would be as good a time as any to run down the team and player option decisions. We’ll start with the National League, with the American League following on Friday. Here’s what’s on the table.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have mutual options with three players: Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk, and Scott McGough. Mutual options are virtually never exercised, and none of these will be. Pederson will be able to do better than $14 million on the open market, and Grichuk should probably do better than $6 million. McGough’s season has been disastrous; $4 million isn’t worth it for an up-and-down reliever.
On the club side, the Diamondbacks hold options on Merrill Kelly ($7 million) and Eugenio Suárez ($15 million). Both of those are going to get picked up, with Suárez breaking out in the second half and Kelly pitching solidly in the 10 starts he’s made when healthy. Even if he’s more like a fifth starter now, that’s a bargain price.
While Jordan Montgomery probably wasn’t expecting to exercise his player option when he signed with the Diamondbacks on a one-year deal, he’s definitely going to now. He’s been awful this year, and a deal better than $22.5 million isn’t going to be out there for him.
Atlanta Braves
Right off the top, the Braves have a couple of slam-dunk club options to pick up. Marcell Ozuna will return for $16 million to DH, and Travis d’Arnaud will return for $8 million to rejoin Sean Murphy in Atlanta’s catching tandem. The team also has the easy choice to decline Luke Jackson’s $8 million option.
The last choice here is the toughest one: Is Aaron Bummer worth $7.25 million? I tend to think so, as his 3.25 ERA may actually be an underperformance; his FIP is 1.90. On the other hand, the Braves are not using him as a high-leverage reliever. His average leverage index is 0.71. Still, I lean toward “yes” here, because his performance has been great, no matter the role, and fellow lefty A.J. Minter is hitting free agency.
Chicago Cubs
Drew Smyly’s mutual option will be declined, as mutual options are, but the real decision — and I’m not exaggerating when I say this could be the inflection point for the Cubs’ entire offseason — is what Cody Bellinger decides to do with his player option.
Bellinger has taken a step back from his retooled 2023, with a 24-point decline in wRC+ and considerably less value in the field. It’s worth mentioning that his defensive dip is more a testament to the otherworldly glove of center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong than it is a knock on Bellinger, who has played more right field and first base since PCA arrived. Either way, his overall production has dropped off this season, from 4.4 WAR last year to 2.2 entering this week. You’d think that would make it an obvious decision for Bellinger to stay in Chicago, where he’s set to make $27.5 million next year if he exercises the first of his two player options. Indeed, Bob Nightengale reported on Sunday that Bellinger is “highly expected” to remain with the Cubs. Then again, Bellinger is represented by the always aggressive Scott Boras, who could convince his client that there’s more money to be made on the open market. Seems unlikely, but it’s certainly possible.
Cincinnati Reds
Nick Martinez has a player option, and no, you’re not having déjà vu. This is the third straight offseason in which the righty’s fate is in his own hands. His prior two decisions to opt out and enter free agency were obvious, and his choice is clear once again. Sure, the $12 million that he would make to stay with the Reds is a nice chunk of change, but he should be able to get more for his career-high 2.8 WAR this season. That said, there are two realities that could curb his value as a free agent: 1) He remains more of a back-and-forth guy than a full-fledged starter, and 2) he’s now 34 years old. Still, at his age, this might be the last shot he has to strike it relatively big on the open market, so I’d expect him to enter free agency again.
The Brewers love mutual options, and that’s what Jakob Junis had transferred over to Cincinnati when Milwaukee traded him on the day of the deadline. He spent some time on the injured list this year but has been great as a swingman when healthy, so we should expect him to eschew his end of an $8 million mutual option to look for a multi-year deal.
The other $8 million decision is Emilio Pagán’s, and it’ll be a tough one for him. Pagán is normally a workhorse, but a lat strain forced him to miss nearly three months of the season, limiting him to just 35 1/3 innings. They’ve been good innings, but not dominant ones; half of the balls put in play against him have been hard hit, a career worst. I think he could do modestly better on a multi-year deal, but if I were him I’d probably take the $8 million and try again next offseason.
The final two choices belong to Cincinnati, and they’re a couple of easy ones. Catcher Luke Maile and left-handed pitcher Brent Suter have matching $3.5 million options, and I expect them both to stick around at that price. Suter’s been invaluable as a multi-inning relief arm who’s allergic to walks and hard contact, and Maile is a clubhouse favorite as Tyler Stephenson’s backup.
Colorado Rockies
Catcher Jacob Stallings is the one Rockie with an option for 2025, but it’s a mutual option. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but a mutual option equals free agency. He’s having by far his best offensive showing of his career this year, and although his defense has declined some, he should do relatively well on the open market as an oft-playing backup.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Despite having a massive payroll, all of the options for the Dodgers are modest. They will likely let catcher Austin Barnes stick around for just $3.5 million to back up Will Smith, considering how well-respected he is over there and how much familiarity he has with the Los Angeles pitchers. It’s a tougher call for the Dodgers to pick up shortstop Miguel Rojas’s $5 million option, but with Mookie Betts back in right field, it probably makes sense to keep him around, even with Gavin Lux and Tommy Edman on the roster.
The fascinating decision lies with Clayton Kershaw. He’s looked mortal in his limited action this year — just seven starts — but those seven starts were enough to increase the base value of his player option from $5 million to $10 million. Perhaps he could opt out and renegotiate with the Dodgers, but health is always going to be a concern with him, especially after this season. It might not be worth the risk for him to try and squeeze a few extra millions out of the Dodgers if he wants to return. He’s comfortable in Los Angeles, so my guess is he stays there, but it’s also possible that he decides to retire or (gulp) move closer to home and pitch for the Rangers.
Miami Marlins
No option decisions.
Milwaukee Brewers
Remember in the Reds section when I said the Brewers love giving mutual options? Well, they’ve got three of them. Frankie Montas, Gary Sánchez, and Wade Miley will all be free agents once again after signing what were effectively one-year deals.
The Brewers also have three club options, and all three should get picked up. Freddy Peralta’s option will be exercised in a heartbeat, and Colin Rea is certainly worth $5.5 million as a perfectly solid back-end starter (if not to the Brewers, then to somebody else via a trade). Devin Williams’ $10.5 million option may not be exercised, but he’s arbitration eligible if it is declined. Having missed half the season with a back injury, the Brewers may think they can keep Williams around for cheaper than $10.5 million through the arbitration process.
The one that really could go either way is Rhys Hoskins’ player option. He’s been below replacement level and below average by wRC+ this season, so he probably should opt in for $18 million. But as is the case with Bellinger, Hoskins is a Boras client, so we can’t eliminate the possibility that he takes another crack at free agency, especially if he finishes the season and postseason strong.
New York Mets
Taking on Phil Maton in something of a salary dump looks like a shrewd move for David Stearns’ Mets; Maton has a 2.38 ERA in 26 appearances with New York. With the 2025 bullpen so unsettled (Adam Ottavino and Ryne Stanek are free agents, and José Buttó may end up back in the rotation), it looks like an easy call to keep Maton for $7.75 million, even if that’s a little above market rate for a good middle reliever.
Philadelphia Phillies
No option decisions.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Marco Gonzales ($15 million club option) is the only Pirate in this camp, though his option surely will be declined. Gonzales has made seven mediocre starts and has been on, off, and back on the IL with recurring arm injuries. Flexor tendon surgery is expected to sideline him for a big chunk of next season, too.
San Diego Padres
Even if the worst-case scenario happens and Ha-Seong Kim’s shoulder inflammation doesn’t clear up in time for a return this season, he’s a lock to decline his end of an $8 million mutual option. But will the Padres counter with a qualifying offer?
San Francisco Giants
Two player options are all the Giants have on the docket, and they couldn’t be more dichotomous in their level of importance to the club. Assuming he finishes the season healthy, Blake Snell will decline his option and re-enter the free-agent market as one of the top starters. He may not quite match the option’s $30 million in average annual value, but he should be able to lock in three or more years for at least $25 million per season.
On the other end is Wilmer Flores, whose season has been ravaged by knee injuries. His 69 wRC+ in 71 games is a far cry from the 134 he posted in 2023, and he comes with extremely limited value anywhere but at the plate. As such, I think he’ll take the modest $3.5 million option to prove that he can still hang in a platoon role against lefties next year; he’d potentially be looking at a minor league contract if he declined it.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Sign A Bunch of Old Pitchers plan didn’t quite work out for the Cardinals, with Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn pitching perfectly fine but — as expected — offering nothing special. It’s clear to me that the Cardinals need to take a different path if they want a starting rotation that’s actually imposing, which is why I think they’ll decline at least one of the two $12 million options. Gibson’s been healthy all year (as he has been for basically his whole career) so he’s likelier to stick around.
The Cardinals also have a $6 million option for Keynan Middleton, which they’ll decline after the righty reliever missed the entire season after undergoing flexor tendon surgery.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals weren’t planning on having Joey Gallo around this late in the season unless they were surprisingly in contention, but an ill-timed hamstring injury coupled with poor performance made it so they couldn’t trade him before the deadline. Instead, Washington will get rid of him when the season ends by turning down its side of his $8 million mutual option.
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Bellinger and Hoskins opting out would probably be welcomed by their teams. Even if they do better in the free agent market those teams are probably happy to reallocate the money elsewhere. But if they come back it’s not the end of the world.
Seattle would be a fun place to see Bellinger play (put him in RF or 1B); I wonder if the Giants would use some of their Judge-fund for him? Will TOR spend to rebuild? Will the non-spenders with stars open up (CLE, PIT, etc.); I would think he’ll get a good offer from someone (maybe DET?)
I’m hoping the Bucs spring a trade for O’Hearn or Lamont Wade.
I think O’Hearn is a free agent.
Why do players and teams agree to mutual options at all, given that they’re never picked up? Why not just agree to an X-year contract, rather than X years followed by a mutual option?
The options typically have a buyout amount which stretches the length of the contract for tax AAV calculations into that X+1 year. I imagine the teams offer the players slightly extra money for this tax hit smoothing
I’d always assumed that the buyout was paid if the team declined the option, while if the player declined he didn’t get it.
Which would mean it’s also a sort of insurance policy for the player against falling off a cliff or serious injury. He gets the buyout money if he’s not getting anything else.
Padres basically have to hit Kim with a QO. He’s the only good defensive SS on the roster, despite having a hundred shortstops. Eguy Rosario doesn’t have the range to handle short, Bogaerts and Machado have taken steps back on defense, and unless they want to move Merrill back into the infield, they’re kind of stuck there. Shortstops are going to be in high demand with low supply this offseason. It’s going to be Kim, Adames, Paul DeJong, and maybe Miguel Rojas as everyday shortstops. That’s it.
I imagine the Giants are going be very much in on Kim and Adames, and the Padres and Brewers will be interested in bringing their guys back at the right price. But I don’t think there’s a lot of other teams that will be involved. The Braves might be involved but they have a lot of money committed already, the Dodgers have already shown a willingness to roll with stopgaps at shortstop, and the Tigers and Red Sox just did this with Javier Baez and Trevor Story and it turned out terribly.
Story I’ll give you, but Baez was always going to break. There were enough red flags in his profile to carpet a mansion.
Why you would carpet a mansion in flags, I don’t know, but there were enough of them.
I think Detroit is coming for Adams hard af
With Turang and Ortiz as options, I don’t see the Brewers offering anywhere near the amount that Adames would see as the “right price”.
Actually I’m not sure the Brewers even make a serious offer at Adames. I think the QO is much more likely so at least they get a pick out of it.
The Brewers used to spend a surprising amount for their market size, but the last 5 years or so they’ve largely stayed in the same place while the rest of the league spends more. So I would probably agree with you here. I think there’s a real chance he tops Yelich’s AAV, which was something like $23M a year, and there’s a real chance he gets to 7 years–so something like $160M? He would have to take less money to stay with the Brewers and that doesn’t happen very often.
I am also super skeptical of Turang’s bat playing at second base. I understand why he was there this year, and that’s because the other options available were terrible. He is probably a better fit elsewhere but teams don’t trade players to relieve surpluses anymore.
Padres can’t afford to give one player 21M next year with everything else they have to do. Kim will reject the QO anyway. He’s going to get 5/100m from the Giants. I predict Bogaerts moves back to SS until Leo De Vries is ready for the show in 2-3 years. Merrill is too valuable in CF (and Tatis too injury prone) to move back to SS. There’s also an outside chance they go after Hyeseong Kim from the KBO, although he’s more of a 2B than SS type.
Game theory: If the padres can’t afford the 21M, they definitely can’t afford 5/100M, which makes it MORE likely they would make the QO.
As long as he’s still competent defensively, good offensively, and you can make up for the defense elsewhere on the infield, I don’t see why a contender can’t use a below average defensive shortstop. It’s just something you’d prefer to avoid more than at any other position save for at catcher.
Okay, but that doesn’t apply to the Padres (Machado has taken severe steps back, and Bogaerts is injured too often to depend on, and they’re the guys you’d have around anyone else), so that point is moot.
While I don’t think he’d have agreed to a player option if he really wanted to leave, there’s a 0% chance the Dodgers pinch pennies with him. No one in LA would regret it if they paid $25m for 12 IP and they missed the playoffs because he’s *Clayton Kershaw* (see also: Kobe Bryant’s final contract). If he changes his mind and wants to go to TX or retires, that’d be one thing…but Guggenheim/Friedman is not gonna throw stupid money after Joe Kelly and then cheap out on Clayton Kershaw.
I wouldn’t say the Cardinals’ plan to rebuild their starting rotation didn’t work out. Their rotation was good enough along with their strong bullpen to keep them in contention until mid-August. It’s just that various offensive pieces regressed or were too inconsistent compared to what was expected (while only Winn and Burleson showed significant offensive improvement), and Sonny Gray having a slump in July and early August also didn’t help.
That being said, I agree that the Cardinals will only pick up one of those two options (if either of them) and that Gibson is the better choice. That would give them Gray, Fedde, and Gibson with guaranteed rotation spots next year, while the other two spots would be a competition between Pallante, Mikolas, Matz, McGreevey, Thompson, and maybe other prospects. (There’s also the possibility of a trade adding and/or removing names from this list.)
If Pallante can continue to pitch as a starter like he did this year, and McGreevey continues to develop as expected, then a 2025 rotation of Gray, Fedde, McGreevey, Gibson, and Pallante would be pretty good.
If Kim’s market value is 5/100, I can’t imagine the Pirates not being in on him, with the alternatives IKF, Alika Williams, and a batch of guys with little or no MLB experience there. And with Gonzales’ $15 million, Chapman’s $10.5 million, and Taylor/Tellez/Grandal’s combined $9.7 million coming off the books, they will certainly have the budget space to do that and no arb awards to speak of coming (de la Cruz, Bart, and Bednar seem to be the only significant cases) they will have extra cash available after that.