Brewers Acquire Underperforming Frankie Montas From the Reds

Despite trading ace Corbin Burnes, losing two members of their planned starting five to Tommy John surgery and then two others to injuries that have cost them more than half a season, the Brewers are riding high atop the NL Central, holding a seven-game lead over the Cardinals and Pirates entering the morning of the trade deadline. They’ve already used a club-record 16 starters this year, including righty Aaron Civale, whom they acquired from the Rays earlier this month. On Monday they added the man who’ll likely be no. 17, righty Frankie Montas, whom they acquired from the Reds in a rare intradivisional swap in exchange for outfielder Joey Wiemer and righty reliever Jakob Junis.

Beyond the fact that Montas was healthy enough for the Brewers to move forward with the deal — his 15-day stint on the injured list earlier this year was for a forearm contusion caused by a line drive — and can take the ball every five or six days, it’s not clear yet what the Brewers see in the 31-year-old righty. His performance has fallen off considerably since he finished sixth in the AL Cy Young voting in 2021 on the strength of a 3.37 ERA, 207 strikeouts, and 4.0 WAR for the A’s. Dealt to the Yankees as part of a six-player trade on August 1, 2022, he pitched poorly down the stretch before being sidelined by shoulder inflammation, and after undergoing arthroscopic shoulder surgery in February 2023, was limited to a 1.1-inning cameo in last season’s penultimate game.

When Montas hit free agency, the Reds took a flier, signing him for a $16 million guarantee in December, with a $14 million salary this year, a $2 million buyout on a $20 million mutual option for 2025, and some small performance and award bonuses tacked on as well. There are no bad one-year deals, it is often said, but this one for Montas — with his 5.01 ERA and 4.91 FIP in 93.1 innings — rates as a disappointment. Play the arbitrary endpoint game, and you can find a pretty decent stretch: From May 29 through July 4, in seven starts totaling 36.1 innings, he posted a 3.72 ERA and 4.20 FIP. But since then, he’s been lit for 16 runs in 16 innings over three starts. Only twice all season has he put together back-to-back quality starts (six or more innings, three or fewer earned runs).

If you squint at that graph, maybe you can convince yourself that the improved swinging strike rate from Montas in his more recent starts is something to build upon. It’s not unreasonable to view the Brewers’ track record of consistently cobbling together solid rotations with limited resources as earning them at least some benefit of the doubt, but it’s not as though the Reds are in the dark when it comes to pitching, either. Montas’ numbers don’t look very promising, as he isn’t fooling hitters the way he once did. His 10.4% swinging strike rate is 3.3 percentage points lower than it was in 2021. His strikeout rate has fallen from 26.6% to 19.0% in that span, while his walk rate has risen from 7.1% to 10.0% and his home run rate has ballooned from 0.96 per nine to 1.35. Though his average four-seam fastball is only 1.1 mph slower than it was in 2021 (95.3 mph vs. 96.4), both of our pitch-modeling systems see the overall quality of his stuff as conspicuously diminished. Here’s a look at his Stuff+ numbers:

Montas’ PitchingBot metrics, which run on a 20-80 scouting scale where 50 is average, tell a similar story: He has declined from grades of 58 stuff and 59 overall in 2021 to 47 stuff and 49 overall this year; for some reason (different pitch classification, perhaps) the system didn’t break out a grade for what was a highly effective cutter in ’21. It scores a 54 now for its characteristics, but in terms of its actual performance against hitters, the pitch has stopped working. Where batters hit .194 and slugged .290 against the pitch in 2021, when he threw it 7.1% of the time, they’ve punished it for a .388 AVG and .694 SLG this year, when he’s thrown it 17.2% of the time. Montas’ most effective pitch this year has been the splitter, against which batters have managed just a .219 AVG and .329 SLG with a 41% whiff rate. So he’s got that going for him, which is nice, and the models do like his cutter and slider despite batters beating up on them.

The Brewers are prepared to accept that, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they tweak his usage rates or find other areas for him to make adjustments. Their ranks have been thinned by injuries, as they’ve lost both Robert Gasser and Wade Miley to Tommy John surgery, and have been without both DL Hall and Joe Ross for extended stretches. Hall, obtained from the Orioles in the Burnes trade, has been on the injured list since April 21 due to a left knee sprain; he’s nearing a return after having his rehab prolonged twice, first when he tweaked the knee in a May 19 start for High-A Wisconsin, and again when he too was hit in the forearm by a comebacker on July 9 while pitching for Triple-A Nashville. Ross has been out since May 21 due to a lower back strain; he’s expected to be activated to start on Tuesday. With Montas and that pair available to join Civale, Freddy Peralta, Colin Rea, and Tobias Myers, the team suddenly appears to have a surplus of starters, which could be a precursor to further trades. Of that group, Peralta, Ross, Civale, Hall, and Montas all have postseason experience, though Civale’s amounts to one-third of a very rough inning against the Yankees in 2022, while Montas’ 6.2 total innings came via an abbreviated start against the Astros in 2020 and two so-so relief appearances.

To get Montas, the Brewers traded Junis, a 31-year-old righty, and Wiemer, a 25-year-old outfielder. Junis, whom the Brewers signed to a one-year, $7 million deal that includes an $8 million mutual option and $3 million buyout for 2025, made one start for them on April 2, then missed two and a half months due to a shoulder impingement; along the way, he was hit in the head with a ball during batting practice, sidelining him for most of a week. Since returning, he’s worked as a multi-inning reliever, with all nine of his appearances lasting two or more innings. Relying primarily on a sinker/slider combo, he’s posted a 2.42 ERA and 4.38 FIP across 26 innings. The Reds, who also received $1 million from the Brewers to offset the difference in option buyouts, plan to keep Junis in the bullpen for now.

Wiemer, an Ohio native who was a fourth-round pick in 2020 out of the University of Cincinnati, placed 91st on our Top 100 Prospects list in 2023 as a 50-FV prospect, with 70-grade raw power and speed. He spent nearly all of last season with the Brewers but hit just .204/.283/.362 (75 wRC+) with 13 homers, 11 steals, and a 28.3% strikeout rate in 410 plate appearances, sticking around mainly due to his defense; in 928.1 innings in center field, 96.2 in right, and nine in left, he totaled 11 FRV, 6.6 UZR, and 5 DRS. Between a left knee strain that curtailed his stint with the team in April and May, and the emergence of Blake Perkins to provide better offense and similarly strong defense in center, Wiemer was limited to 27 PA with Milwaukee this year, and despite some adjustments to quiet his pre-swing movement, he hit a tepid .242/.387/.358 (105 wRC+) in 235 PA at Nashville. While his stock may be down, he’s under club control through 2028, and figures to get a chance to show what he can do in the Reds’ outfield.

After winning 82 games last year, the Reds hoped to contend for at least a Wild Card spot in a packed NL Central, but at 51-55 they’re now 10 games behind the Brewers and five back in the Wild Card race, with four other outsiders ahead of them and playoff odds of just 5.9%. They did pick up former All-Star first baseman Ty France in exchange for minor league catcher Andruw Salcedo in a deal with the Mariners; France, who landed on my Replacement Level Killers list and has hit just .223/.312/.350 (95 wRC+), had been designated for assignment last week. The trade of Montas — whose veteran presence was particularly valued by manager David Bell and the Reds’ young starters (“His impact has been tremendous in such a short period of time with us,” said Hunter Greene) — is the clearest signal that they’re looking to next year.

Honestly, this deal is a head-scratcher from Milwaukee’s vantage point given the cost of five years of control of the toolsy Wiemer for a pricey rental who may not actually be one of the team’s five most effective starters. Such a cost would have made more sense had the Brewers dealt for Erick Fedde, whom they pursued but who was dealt to the Cardinals on Monday; he’s not only outpitched Montas but is already signed for 2025 for just $7.5 million. I’m not sure what Milwaukee’s vision is for Montas, but we’ll see if it pays off.