Toppling the Juggernaut: Dodgers vs. Braves NLDS Preview
Two of the most successful ballclubs of the modern era are set to battle each other in the National League Division Series, with a spot in the Championship Series on the line. Fresh off dispatching the Philadelphia Phillies in a dramatic three-game Wild Card Series — their first postseason series win since winning the World Series back in 2021 — the Atlanta Braves now have to face a juggernaut in the Los Angeles Dodgers. They had to go through Los Angeles in the NLCS to earn that championship five years ago, the second of their back-to-back meetings in the semi-finals. As for the Dodgers, this series is the beginning of their quest to win a third consecutive World Series, something that’s been done just four times in MLB history and never by a National League team.
The Braves won the season series between these two teams, claiming victories in five of their six meetings while holding Los Angeles to just 15 total runs across those games. Still, beating the regular season-Dodgers is one thing; the postseason-Dodgers are an entirely different beast. The injury issues that plagued them throughout the season are largely in the rear-view mirror and their roster is the strongest it’s been since Opening Day. It will be a tall task to try and topple one of the best teams in baseball in five games.
| Overview | Braves | Dodgers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batting (wRC+) | 97 (9th in NL) | 111 (2nd in NL) | Dodgers |
| Fielding (FRV) | 20 (5th) | 9 (6th) | Braves |
| Starting Pitching (FIP-) | 102 (8th) | 86 (2nd) | Dodgers |
| Bullpen (FIP-) | 95 (7th) | 85 (1st) | Dodgers |
After being eliminated from the playoffs by the Phillies twice in the last four years — and missing the postseason entirely last season — the Braves finally managed to get revenge against their division rival. That said, it took three games to do it, which puts them at a bit of a disadvantage heading into the NLDS. Not only do they have just one day to recuperate and prepare for the next challenge, the Braves used Chris Sale to get the final four outs of yesterday’s Game 3. His start against the Phillies Tuesday would line him up to start Game 2 of the NLDS on normal rest, and Thursday was his normal bullpen day, but his relief appearance is not without potential consequences. Manager Walt Weiss told reporters today that Sale could start Game 2, but that the team would “err on the side of giving him (time to rest) if it’s even close.” Pushing him to Game 3 would be a significant blow to the Braves chances since it would only allow him to start once in the series.
Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.
I would say the Braves’ biggest hope in this series is that baseball has fairly low single-game reliability at distinguishing team quality, and that five games is not a huge improvement in reliability. The key matchup will be between sample size and the underlying values.
Dodgers could come out cold offensively and lose game 1. Then Sale dominates and ATL wins game 2.
It’s not that crazy of a thing. I truly think people have recency bias because the Dodgers have won the last 2 years. LAD are definitely the favorites but I think people are over indexing on it. Baseball is random when it’s best on best in a short series.
Number 1 seed in each league has only even made the world series 55% of the time in the last 10 years and the best overall record wins 40% of the time.
There are teams in this field that are close to the Dodgers in quality, but I don’t think the Braves are one of them. But they could definitely still win!
Sure, short series are random. However LA starting pitching is insanely good and there are just too many good hitters in that lineup for them not to score several runs in most games. LA has been built to pretty much eliminate any randomness with enormous quantities of quality. Any team that beats them in a short series is going to need some luck. An error, WP, PB, overthrow, misplayed fly ball into a triple type of thing.