Trade-Deadline Chat with Kiley McDaniel and Travis Sawchik

Travis Sawchik: Happy Trade Deadline Day

Travis Sawchik: 59 minutes to go …

Travis Sawchik: Chris Archer appears to be the biggest chip that hasn’t moved that might (probably will?)

Travis Sawchik: Harper is apparently staying, Rizzo says

yerp: Who says no: Archer for Harper + international signing money?

Travis Sawchik: Tampa ends that call quickly

FLTurkey: where would Chris Archer slot in the current Pirate rotation

Travis Sawchik: He would be leading it

Jim Leyland Palmer: I’m pretty shocked and happy that Leonys Martin brought back a 45FV SS. Can you tell us more about Willi Castro’s AA season this year?

Travis Sawchik: A better question for Kiley, who should be joining us shortly

Ameer: How do you think the Blue Jay’s did this deadline? Obviously the time to trade guys like Donaldson and Osuna were last offseason, but given the circumstances what are your thoughts on the returns ?

Travis Sawchik: Any time you can dump Osuna for something you do it

Matt : Any candidates for the “Corey Kluber traded as a marginal prospect but become all star” award?

Travis Sawchik: Get to know the Fringe Five

Travis Sawchik: If Lux had been part of the Machado trade I would have said him

v2micca: Any sense of what may be going on behind the scenes with Mike Rizzo and the availability/non-availability of Harper?

Travis Sawchik: FanGraphs playoff odds are perhaps too bullish on the Nats, but the Nats’ best chance to make a run probably involves Harper playing better down the stretch

GoMs: Who would be the most “fun” team for Harper to go to if he were traded from an impact on the playoffs and an enjoyable to watch standpoint? Mariners, Rockies, and Indians would all be cool imo

Travis Sawchik: I’d say Indians because they are built best amongst those clubs for a postseason run … and they still have OF needs even after acquiring Martin

A different Matt : Is the fringe five a market inefficiency or have enough teams bought in to carson’s Manifest genius that this is already factored in now?

Travis Sawchik: I’ve placed an eight-figure valuation on the FringeFive

IMW: Do you think Donaldson gets dealt in August? Or do the jays just take the draft pick next year?

Travis Sawchik: I think there’s a decent chance he gets dealt so the Blue Jays don’t have to consider giving him a QO

Josh in DC: I’ve been thinking back about the last five years and realized that Mike Rizzo has never done more than adding a bullpen piece (some good, some bad) during the season. I can’t imagine that this is the owner’s fault. It’s not like the Lerners would have stopped a trade of a couple fringe minor leaguers for Nathan Eovaldi. He’s a great off-season GM. During the year, he quits.

Travis Sawchik: To be fair to Rizzo, the Nats have entered the last couple years without many glaring holes … and often they’ve had impact players sidelined

Travis Sawchik: And being aggressive in season can cost you Felipe Vasquez

Pitch_Out: It looks like Cashman has acquired 3.5 mil in international bonus $$ over the last couple days. Is he making a play to Victor Victor in the 2018 period or are they going to spread that out among a bunch of smaller signing bonus guys?

Kiley McDaniel: I am also here!

Travis Sawchik: Not sure what they will do with that cash but given how well the Yankees have done in IFA I love getting the extra cash

Travis Sawchik: Welcome, Kiley

NathanLazarus: Tommy Pham is coming off a 6-win season. Do the Cardinals know this? Do the Indians? Seems like the Indians paid a similar price for a half season of Leonys Martin as the Rays did for 3.5 seasons of Pham.

Travis Sawchik: Pham would have been a nice fit in Cleveland, for sure

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Kiley it’s been a week since the Venters trade and I still haven’t seen a scouting report on International Bonus Pool Money. Is he a top 100 guy?

Kiley McDaniel: We just updated THE BOARD and (scrolls) he JUST missed it

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx

Travis Sawchik: News bulletin: Pirates are leading for Chris Archer, apparently

Kiley McDaniel: Here is that link, by the way

Rob Bro: Other than Amaya, who are some risers in the cubs system that other teams might want to acquire?

Kiley McDaniel: Fun aspect of the updated to all our prospect rankings is the up/down arrows for players on the move

Kiley McDaniel: almost like we’ve replaced me and Eric with a computer I wonder how this will end

Tom: A Pirates fan sent me a text saying he’s glad they’re getting Archer but shouldn’t they have just kept Cole? He’s not wrong, is he?

Travis Sawchik: It’s not clear, or even likely, that Cole would have performed this well in Pittsburgh this season

Travis Sawchik: Astros have done well in extracting value out of players

Kiley McDaniel: finshing the last question, he doesn’t have the arrow by his name, but Cubs LHP Brailyn Marquez in the AZL is a hot name with a heater into the mid-90’s

J: Kiley, you mentioned that NYY has one of baseball’s top Int’l Departments-If I recall they lost Moncada due to a Steinbrenner In Law running that group-how did they improve so quickly?

Kiley McDaniel: Good memory. He was more an extension of ownership that was longer associated with ownership pretty soon after

Kiley McDaniel: It’s an autonomous group now that Cash appears to believe in and funnel resources to

Jonathan: Kiley, when do you and Eric get to sleep again?

Kiley McDaniel: I just got to Birmingham for tomorrow’s East Coast Pro Showcase

Kiley McDaniel: so after that, probably

tWins fan: Is there going to be scouting write-ups on all of the prospects the Twins have received via trade the last few days? On that note, which prospect that they acquired is your favorite?

Josh in DC: Re: Rizzo. It’s not like the Red Sox gave up all that much to get Nathan Eovaldi. There’s plenty of deals to be made; Rizzo makes none of them.

Kiley McDaniel: There will be a post right after 4 pm with all of the traded prospects

Travis Sawchik: I think some criticism of Nats is warranted, certainly. Catcher, for instance, has been a glaring void for several seasons

54: Give us a WTF major leaguer that will get traded, so in an hour we can be like ‘That Sawchik dude, he’s some sorta rainman trade savant,’ when it occurs. Worst case we just forget you suggested it.

Travis Sawchik: Trevor Williams

Travis Sawchik: If he’s not traded this chat never happened

Rex Ryan: My A/C died, so I’m using Mike Rizzo’s feet to keep things cold

Travis Sawchik: That’s cold

Ogbert the Nerd: Did the Braves overpay for Duvall? I know all three are kind of spare parts but Sims still has starter potential, Wisler seems like a solid candidate for mid-inning relief, and Tucker is a perfectly cromulent bench OF.

Kiley McDaniel: Tucker was acquired on waivers, Sims looks more and more like a 6th starter and Wisler looks like a depth reliever that’s not super dependable. Duvall has been unlucky this year, allows for a Inciarte platoon, takes Markakis’ spot and clear 40-man room

TJ: Can someone explain what the rays are doing? They think they can compete in the next year or 2, as evidenced by the Pham trade, but now they’re dealing Ramos and possibly Archer?

Travis Sawchik: #arbitrage

Kiley McDaniel: players are stocks man, open your mind

O….K: Orioles are reportedly nearing another trade?  Any idea who it will be?  Seems Jones has been ruled out.  Givens?  O’Day?  Bundy?  Gausman?  Schoop?  TRADE THEM ALL!!!

Kiley McDaniel: Appears trade deadline fever is spreading

Travis Sawchik: Ha. Rays are just waiting on Wander Franco

mike_pez: CLE still need another OF? RH RF?

Travis Sawchik: CLE could still use another OF. It’s not like Michael Brantley is the best bet to remain healthy and there is the RF strong-side platoon question

I’mHereForTheOverpays: We’ve already seen the Yankees clear spots on the 40-man roster in anticipation of this upcoming year’s Rule 5 draft, are there any other teams we could expect similar moves out of today and over the next month?

Kiley McDaniel: Appears ATL just did it for Duvall

Maple Oneill: Can we have a moment of silence for all the baseballs in St. Louis that Tyler O’neill is about to murder?

Kiley McDaniel: I am here for his brand of crushing

Woad Raider: Can a trade be made at 3:55 pm EST and nixed later if medical reports have something wrong? Or do teams have to keep their medical staff busy reading reports all day today?

Kiley McDaniel: Guys are already cleared now for teams in talks up to the deadline

Slurp: If you were Mike Rizzo, what is the minimum offer would you take in exchange for Harper? (Ie 1 50 FV, 2 45s, etc)

Kiley McDaniel: one 50 FV to start

Travis Sawchik: If I’m the Indians I give that for Harper

LegalEagle: Archer to Pirates

Rod: Braves got Gausman

Kiley McDaniel: I think five deals just happened right now

Travis Sawchik: Woah

Travis Sawchik: Dozier?

Kiley McDaniel: AARON LOUP

Travis Sawchik: A lot just happened

Joe: Meadows and Glasnow for Archer?

Travis Sawchik: If so, that’s a big bet on Glasnow

Kiley McDaniel: Upside is still there, same for Meadows, although the shine has worn off a bit

Kiley McDaniel: TB turned down some pretty lofty names in the past for Archer, as well

Ameer: EVERYTHING IS HAPPENING

Mister Puppy : My brain is overheating

Jake: Are the Mets missing out by not selling now or is there enough of a core here that sticking with Syndergaard, Wheeler and deGrom is the right move?

Travis Sawchik: There’s still 30 minutes to go

Brew Crew: OMG what do we do now!? No one is left

Safety Stegosaurus: Does MLB Network have to be turned off in clubhouses today?

Travis Sawchik: Ha. This is one day where you can be sure to find players actually in the clubhouse during media availability

Mystery Team: Why have I been so quiet today?

Kiley McDaniel: Mystery team needs to shore up that bullpen, bro

Perennial Ballboy Tryout: GMs do realize that we have a couple years yet before nuclear winter ravages the earth, right?

JD: Any word on when Victor Victor will be cleared to sign?

Kiley McDaniel: No word, but expectation is months

Moltar: Jeez, MLBTR must make a killing this time of year. I’ve only loaded their page like 50 times in the last two hours.

yerp:

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Travis Sawchik: This is true

Drew: Brewers just gonna hit their way to the playoffs I guess.

carrotjuice: Feels like Brewers really should’ve done more to upgrade SP. (Granted: still half an hour left, but nothing really left).

Travis Sawchik: There’s still time, Milwaukee

54: Do you think Forsythe feels like the girlfriend that the Dodgers had, that always suspected the Dodgers wanted to date Dozier, and now is dumped for their TRUE LOVE?

Travis Sawchik: Feels a lot like that

Kiley McDaniel: I thought the same thing

Joe Schlmo: What’s the point of keeping Harper but selling off other pieces? Either sell or go for it.

Kiley McDaniel: Ownership/Boras may have different ideas

Travis Sawchik: Harper’s so-so season probably increases his odds of staying in WSH, I’d guess

Guest: Why would Boras have a say in Harper being traded?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s basically the shadow owner at this point

Ben: DO SOMETHING RIZZO!!!!!

Kiley McDaniel: Nats fans seem chill

Travis Sawchik: Passan confirms Archer to Pirates

Travis Sawchik: Probably most significant deadline add in Pirates history, at least recent history

Travis Sawchik: Pirates entered day with 13.1% playoff odds, 1.3% division odds

Travis Sawchik: But, of course, Archer has the valuable control years

Travis Sawchik: too

Kiley McDaniel: the sort of move they’ve avoided making under this current regime

Kiley McDaniel: they’ve also been very hesitant to even discuss top prospects

Travis Sawchik: Fascinating deal

Travis Sawchik: Archer, Meadows and a 3rd piece according to multiple reports

Travis Sawchik: Glasnow, meadows – edit

O….K: Pirates ‘gon Searage-ize Archer?

Kiley McDaniel: well, Travis…are they?

Kiley McDaniel: You could argue Archer is along the lines of Gerrit Cole, that throwing 50% SL could be his shortest path to continued success, which isn’t really what Searage prescribes

Travis Sawchik: That’s a great question!

Kiley McDaniel: DIEKMAN SZN

Travis Sawchik: The Pirates’ Way of 2013-15 … two-seamers, groundballs, etc … is a zag from today’s zig

Travis Sawchik: Archer doesn’t have a two-seamer

Travis Sawchik: His four-seamer is getting hit

Travis Sawchik: I’d guess you’d want to Rich Hill-ize Archer

Travis Sawchik: Or give him some pine tar

Travis Sawchik: Pirates perhaps can learn from what Astros did with Gerrit Cole in pitch mix, location, etc

Kiley McDaniel: LET’S RICH HILL-IZE CHRIS ARCHER
BY JEFF SULLIVAN

Travis Sawchik: Yes!

Travis Sawchik: Who would you have asked for for Archer from Pit, Kiley?

Travis Sawchik: Glasnow is a human error bar in regard to range of ultimate outcomes

Kiley McDaniel: Meadows vs. Ke’Bryan Hayes is pretty close right now

Post Malone: How much does a number 4 starter like Archer really move the needle?

Kiley McDaniel: (Hayes is 34th in the minors, is arrows up with plus D and hit tool at 3B, Meadows was 47th entering the year and is probably a LF with pressure on the bat and some injuries.)

Travis Sawchik: That’s hyperbole but he’s certainly having a down year … Moving to the NL Central from the AL East will help his number and fantasy owners

Easily: Does the fact that Orioles ownership gets a percentage of the Nats television revenue impact, one way or the other, their willingness to trade? The Orioles often seem to be trading past the Nats to the Nats opponents. Or am I just voldemorting Angelos?

Kiley McDaniel: I have been told this not being totally resolved impacts a potential sale

RyanW: If this Archer deal happened in 2015 I’d be far more excited, but I’ll roll with it

Bo: Glasnow, Meadows plus for Archer. What would a Braves offer have looked like? Toussaint, Pache, and one more piece?

Travis Sawchik: If this trade was made in 2015 between TB-PIT, it still probably would have been for Glasnow and Meadows.

Kiley McDaniel: Both ATL pieces are better than the PIT pieces

Travis Sawchik: Everyone involved has seen their value diminish

Perennial Ballboy Tryout: Chris Archer’s deal is like the Sonny Gray deal last year: Starter who struggles with contact, has the potential to be a #1, but hasn’t reached it yet. New team gave up post-hype prospects w/ big ceiling, a lot to prove.

Travis Sawchik: A new deadline model

Joe: is this the most popular chat, ever?

Justin: Long story short.  Delmon Young traded for Matt Garza traded for Chris Archer and now traded for Glasnow/Meadows.  Pretty good #1 overall pick if you ask me

Travis Sawchik: Love trade lineages

Travis Sawchik: This has been a popular chat

Travis Sawchik: Probably more to do with the calendar than the actual authors involved

Zock Jr.: Remember when people were saying after the Machado deal that this would be a quiet deadline?

Travis Sawchik: I am guilty and happy to have been wrong

John: I remember seeing a Fangraphs article during preseason about how similar the Rays and Pirates strategies were. The argument was that they basically both decided, being small market teams, that they would aim for slightly above average consistently year after year and see if they could find their way into the playoffs occasionally. I like the Archer deal on both sides.

Travis Sawchik: I think we can understand the logic from both sides

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-pirates-are-forced-to-value-pl…

Kiley McDaniel: Hey I wrote that1

Kiley McDaniel: !

Salty Dog: Seems to me the story of this deadline is eschewing huge deals in favor of incremental improvements.

Nelson: Imagine your employer calling you and saying you are moving to another side of the country

Bork: Will any trade ever beat John McDonald for future John McDonald?

Travis Sawchik: That would suck depending on circumstance. But If I can have a seven- to eight-figure salary, I’m happy to have no control over where I live

HankLloydWright: Or if you’re John Axford, that you’re moving to  the other side of a different country

Guest: Kiley, what are the quants doing right now in front offices? Like are they just hanging around waiting for projects as calls/trades come up, or do they have specific roles they fill that are mapped out ahead of time?

Kiley McDaniel: Lots of week-ahead work on who to target, how to value them, etc. Kinda twiddling thumbs now as the decision makers do decisions with your work

Kiley McDaniel: weeks-ahead

John: Well, the article clearly made a lasting impression Kiley. Your work matters!

Kiley McDaniel: Hold on lemme tell my Dad this stay here

Frankur: Is international bonus $$$ the new bitcoin

Kiley McDaniel: I’m an International bonus pool money bro

Justin:

Justin: How Met-y is this?

Travis Sawchik: Mets are in kind of a tough spot, I think

Travis Sawchik: If you roll into 2019 with a healthy Thor-deGrom-Wheeler trio and some modest upgrades you can be pretty interesting . Lot of ifs, though

Jerry Dipoto: How many minutes after the deadline will we hear the announcement of the last trade?

Uncle Mork: Over / Under 3.5 trades leaked out AFTER the 4pm deadline?

Travis Sawchik: This is always a great fascination for me

Travis Sawchik: Like extra time in soccer

ballsandgutters: Travis – you think the Archer deal speaks at all to Chad Kuhl’s forearm injury?  It’s sounding like he’s done for 2018 in the rotation and we know what forearm tightness could ultimately mean.

Travis Sawchik: More than anything I  think Pirates probably think they can help Archer a bit and see a chance to land a top-of-rotation arm at a reasonable cost

Morbo: And its done

Post Malone: Ok everybody, pencils down!

Nick: Is there a potential market inefficiency in how teams value intl bonus money? It seems like there isn’t yet an established standard.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Heyman reporting that the third player in the Archer trade is a PTBNL of “real value.”

Kiley McDaniel: It’s more situation-specific. Probably surged when multiple teams wanted Ohtani money, falls when there aren’t Cubans out there and money has been spent on J2 guys

romorr: Man, big jump in prospects rankings with Machado, Gausman, Britton, and possibly Schoop as well.

Kiley McDaniel: Imagine if they had an international department!

Dann: What’s the difference in AL vs NL calculus this year, when 4 AL teams are locks for October and the AL East division is the big prize, whereas in the NL each division and WC is close enough to be at stake?

Travis Sawchik: It’s a year to be aggressive buying in NL

Travis Sawchik: Archer, Machado, Hamels, Dozier are among those going from AL to NL clubs

Kvn: “Athletics not close to deal for Mike Fiers” in the running for best headline today

Travis Sawchik: But not all the super teams in the AL are created equally

Travis Sawchik: Indians needed bullpen and OF help to have a chance to reasonably excel in October

Tony Womack: Crazy for AL only fantasy leagues!!

Joe: What happens if they can’t agree on the PTBNL?

Travis Sawchik: Seems like a significant detail perhaps Kiley can shed some light

capconstrained: Matt Harvey — no one cares

TJ_177: Reds holding onto a reclamation rental too long is very Reds

Travis Sawchik: Only one position can be correct

54: I still want to know which 80 grade name combination you guys prefer for you fusion, Travis Kiley or Sawchik McDaniel? For me it’s the latter, no contest. Sawchik McDaniel would be a plodding slugger pinned to the corner spots, except he could play second for the brewers or dodgers maybe.

Travis Sawchik: Hey, strikeouts are up which helps Sawchik McDaniel slide up the spectrum

Brian CashGod: Smaller take on the Chris Archer deal – he just moved from the worst ballpark in MLB to (arguably) the best

Kiley McDaniel: Travley McChik

Tim: Orioles got Cumberland in the Gausman deal.

Kiley McDaniel: Appears to be the one piece we know, 2 we don’t

Travis Sawchik: I love it, Kiley

Dann: *sees Schoop/Brewers getting close at 2:54 CDT*…so is Travis Shaw a shortstop now?

Travis Sawchik: Shaw could play shortstop when Hader is pitching

Bo: Word is Evan Phillips and Bruce Zimmerman are the other two for Gausman. Seems like a quantity over quality move.

Kiley McDaniel: If that’s it, that’s a pretty solid deal for ATL

Kiley McDaniel: Gausman has seemed like a change of scenery guy for awhile

Drew: Indians fans should be disappointed. Seems like they paid a lot for Hand and still have holes to fill in the OF.

Kiley McDaniel: ah JC Encarnacion also in the Gausman deal

Kiley McDaniel: that’s a 45+, 40+ and two 40s

Travis Sawchik: I think the Indians had to address these areas, and I think they did reasonably well

DJ: Schoop deal done per Rosenthal.

Matt: Kyvis McChick

Kevin: Cumberland from what I understand was a guy that belonged in the AL anyways with suspect ability to stay behind the plate defensively.

Kiley McDaniel: Fits AL better

Conner from AZ: How many times are we going to make the “If the Mets roll into [Insert Season] with a healthy [Insert Pitchers], they will be interesting” comment before we get out of our own way?

Kiley McDaniel: (Phillips, Zimmerman and JCE all rising this year)

Travis Sawchik: Until those question marks march into free agency

Different Jake: But what about CLE’s hole in RF? Chisenall will be on the DL for a while

Travis Sawchik: CLE could still address position before Aug. 31 deadline

…..: Think there’s still some hope for Glasnow as a starter? Move to the Rays good for him?

Travis Sawchik: Man, he could become just about anything

Travis Sawchik: I’d love to hear Kiley’s take … Ultimate risk/reward piece

Roll Tribe: Indians fans should be rioting.  NYY/BOS/HOU all have lefties in their playoff rotations.  Martin will not even be playing.  The Indians gave up a 45FV prospect FOR A PLAYER WHO WILL NOT EVEN START IN THE POSTSEASON.

Travis Sawchik: Rioting seems a touch extreme but I suppose a movement and meeting place could be arranged on Face Book

Kiley McDaniel: Actually fits the TB model of pitcher. Talked to a guy yesterday, picking out young pitchers that would be good 2nd thru 5th innings, one time thru the order vs. 1-4 hitters, twice for 5-9

Kiley McDaniel: Glasnow seems like that type

Kiley McDaniel: both for depth of arsenal and fatigue from being so big

Trainman: Are the Rays going to have openers and bullpen days until snell gets back?

Travis Sawchik: Maybe forever, honestly

Guest: How aggressive should the Pirates be with Newman, Hayes, and Keller now that that seem to have a clearly defined window?

Drew: The Indians could have easily acquired Pham. I don’t understand what they are doing at all.

Travis Sawchik: Pham would have been a nice upgrade, for sure

Kiley McDaniel: Would seem to be the time to push the pieces up for PIT, even just to get their feet wet

KB: Bryse Wilson looks like he’s moving up to AAA, pretty quick rise for him this year

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Even if Glasnow can’t be a conventional starter, he can always join their legion of Yarbrough types who go a few times through the order, avoiding the dangerous parts a third time. This is an organization that rejects your labels. Except Blake Snell, he’s a real starter.

Kiley McDaniel: He is a guy that came up in my prospect P that fits for TB 2nd thru 5th inning type (Bryse Wilson)

Travis Sawchik: True. I’m worried less about Glasnow’s label and more about his ability to throw strikes, though

john cale: is taylor hearn better than anyone the orioles got in that gausman package? yikes

Travis Sawchik: The Orioles 5-10 year outlook is …

john cale: cleveland can get a heavily subsidized choo (and his 140 wRC+) anytime over the next month

Travis Sawchik: $40m needing to be subsidized, though

Travis Sawchik: I do believe in the new Choo

carrotjuice:

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Derek in Little Rock: Good luck to Tyler Glasnow trying to reinvent himself in the AL East.

Perennial Ballboy Tryout: Glasnow= Chatwood +10% K, -10% GB

Travis Sawchik: Easy to second guess everything, but Tampa probably waited a year too long on moving Archer

HappyFunBall: Nats’ deadline moves (or lack therof) make no sense to me. They dumped salary, but nowhere near enough to get under the cap. They watched the one cheap marginal improvement they could have made (Wilson Ramos) go to PHI for a price that easily could have been beaten … WTH?

Travis Sawchik: Ramos to WSH makes a lot of sense

Travis Sawchik: Or any catcher

GoBucsGo: Is the Archer deal functionally a medium risk bet by the Pirates that Swaggerty can move quickly through the system and replace what Meadows would have brought?

Travis Sawchik: Pirates have some OF depth … and they can bring back Dickerson-Marte-Polanco next year

Travis Sawchik: Alright folks, I have to go write up the Dozier trade. What a 90-minute period that was. We’ll all remember where we were: in this very chatroom

Travis Sawchik: Thanks for stopping by for the madness

Travis Sawchik: Kiley is always leaving, I’m told

Travis Sawchik: Please top back next July 31st for the next FanGraphs Trade Deadline Chat