The Pirates Add Rangers’ Reliever for Stretch Run and Beyond

A few weeks ago, the notion of the Pirates operating as buyers at the deadline would have sounded pretty ridiculous. After a good run of play, though — including some great offensive performances — the club is just 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot despite having traded away Gerrit Cole and franchise icon Andrew McCutchen over the winter. While the Pirates bullpen has been pretty good of late behind the always good Felipe Vazquez, as well Kyle Crick, Richard Rodriguez, and Edgar Santana, another arm for the back of the pen is always a benefit. To that end, the team traded for one of the best relievers available in Rangers’ closer Keone Kela, a deal that was first reported by Jeff Passan.

Pirates receive:

• Keone Kela

Rangers receive:

• Taylor Hearn
• Player to Be Named

Jerry Crasnick is reporting that the player to be named is a lesser prospect. When I wrote about the Pirates’ surprising run a week ago, I mentioned the dilemma the team faces given their unexpected contention:

Now that the Pirates find themselves in playoff contention, carving out a path forward isn’t as easy. A few weeks ago, they might have been taking calls on some of their bullpen arms as well as Mercer or Harrison. Now they have the option of adding an arm for a low-level prospect. Still, that isn’t going to move the team forward much. They have somewhat established starters at basically every position and Austin Meadows back in the minors awaiting playing time in the majors after a decent run earlier in the year. They have five MLB-caliber starters where most of the pitchers available won’t net a significant improvement over the last two months.

The Pirates are in weird spot. Nobody expected the team to do anything. Now that the team is somewhat close to a playoff spot, however, it feels like they should do something. Unfortunately, there’s not much the team can do right now to make themselves better.

By acquiring Keone Kela, the team is trying to thread the needle a bit. Kela is a good bullpen add for this season, recording a 2.97 FIP and 3.44 ERA while pitching his home games in Texas’ hitter-friendly environment. Using an upper-90s fastball and low-80s curve, he’s struck out 29% of batters while walking under 10%. He definitely helps Pittsburgh’s bullpen this year; however, he could also help the team in the future. Kela is making $1.2 million in his first year of arbitration. His salary will rise some over the next few years, but he won’t be a free agent until after the 2020 season. In theory, the Pirates have brought on a player who should help them in multiple seasons.

Kela is not without some warning signs, though. Here are some relevant stats for his career.

Kela’s numbers this year are right in line with his career numbers, but 2016 sticks out as a poor season. The numbers aren’t quite as bad as they look in isolation. His strikeout and walk numbers never got too terrible, as seen by this rolling 30-game graph from his career.

There is a big downward slope in 2016, but that’s only because he was striking out an incredibly high 40% of batters for a time. He never struck out less than 25% of opponents over a halfway decent sample. He appeared to just get a bit unlucky with homers.

Ineffectiveness might ultimately be less of a concern than injury. After a rough start to that 2016 season, Kela underwent surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow and missed half of the season. His numbers improved in 2017, but twice he hit the disabled list with a sore right shoulder. Those issues have prevented Kela from topping 40 innings in each of the two previous seasons.

As the graph below shows, Kela’s velocity hasn’t always been consistent during his career, and in some cases seemed to indicate a potential injury.

Taking a closer look at this season, the velocity was down a bit over his last few outings.

Those aren’t alarm bells ringing, but it is something worth monitoring. Kela is a good reliever and he should help Pittsburgh, but relievers are volatile in nature, with Kela’s 2016 season representing a prime example. The Pirates acquired a player who could help them in the long term, but a lot could get in the way of those goals.

As for the cost, Taylor Hearn is a hard-throwing lefty starter whom the Pirates acquired when they traded Mark Melancon a couple years back. He was rated as the Pirates’ eighth-best prospect heading into the season and was projected “as a high-risk mid-rotation starter.” In Double-A this season, Hearn has thrown 104 innings, striking out a batter per inning with decent walk totals, the result being an ERA and FIP in the low-threes. Eric Longenhagen discussed his potential in June, and added to that assessment last night.

From the latter:

Taylor Hearn is a good get for Texas. 94-98 last year in the summer, 90-94 in the fall, have him up to 97 this year, above-average slider, avg change. Strike throwing is still behind, but has missed reps throughout career due to injury (UCL, humeral fractures, foot, oblique)

If Hearn does develop into an MLB starter, the trade is going to look like a pretty big win for the Rangers, but that point is still a few years away. The Pirates made a move to make their team better for this season and potentially a few more years without giving up any of their best prospects. Whether the Pirates end up in the postseason is going to rely mainly on players who are not Keone Kela, but the trade might shouldn’t hurt. In a tight race, a small difference could be the deciding factor. The Pirates certainly hope so.