Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat – 1/9/17

Travis Sawchik: Welcome to my FanGraphs debut chat, everyone. I am sipping a generic seltzer water from Aldi and I am ready to go …

Matt: Aaron Nola? Thoughts? Does the UCL sprain concern you at all? At peak, is he anything more than a mid-rotation guy?

Travis Sawchik: The UCL sprain is obviously concerning, though Tanaka has been just fine having not had surgery to correct the issue … Nola has done really well controlling what he can control: K/9, BB/9, GB% and he might have more upside than that of a mid-rotations arm, 2017 is going to be interesting for him,

Guest: Why aren’t there more MLB players from Taiwan? All those kids who throw 75 in the LLWS and nobody grows up?

Travis Sawchik: Interesting question. In general, I’m surprised more MLB teams do not commit more scouts to Asia. Some teams have one scouting roaming an area where much of the world’s population resides …. There could be some undervalued markets remaining there.

BranBran: Greinke seems to be ranked around SP20 territory this preseason. That seems high for someone unusable in home starts, no?

Travis Sawchik: Unusable? I think he’s a solid bet to bounce back (not to 2015 form, though) and I believe Arizona has brought in some receiving help at catcher

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Welcome to Fangraphs, Travis. What is going to be the general focus of your chats?

Travis Sawchik: Thanks … I’m pretty open. I’m going to try and answer what I feel the best questions, and try to answer a variety of subjects/topics.

Matt: What are your thoughts on Jake Lamb? I was offered a trade of him for Alex Reyes, and after researching, projection systems don’t seem to be so high on him. Do you think he continues last season’s breakout?

Travis Sawchik: I like the bat/discipline track record in the minors … and a double-digit walk rate and 29 HRs is pretty impressive in the majors. There seem to be differing opinions on his D but you don’t have to worry about that

Monsignor Martinez: Greetings to you, Travis. What high school & year did you graduate? I graduated from Mentor in 2007, and student taught at Riverside.

Travis Sawchik: As I mentioned in my intro post, I am northwest Ohio native. I graduated from Mentor in ’98. I’m very much your senior

Hunter Renfroe: What do you see as his ceiling? Is a Grichuk Comp spot-on?

Travis Sawchik: That bat is similar but Grichuk can play center …

Brett W: Welcome, Travis. In your opinion, what are the duties of Pittsburgh pitching coach at which Searage excels?

Travis Sawchik: Thanks, Brett. Searage says his strength is empathy. In his ML career, coaches were always tinkering with his mechanics and he hated it. So he tries to listen and limit mechanical tweaks with his pitchers. It seems to be a powerful trait

Nietsniew: Welcome good sir!

Travis Sawchik: Thanks!

Scott: Travis, as a fellow Yinzer and fan of Big Data Baseball, I am extremely excited to see you on Fangraphs. What are your thoughts on the continuing McCutchen rumors? Is he a Pirate in 2017?

Travis Sawchik: I believe he open as a Pirate….and perhaps in LF or RF. The Nationals were the top and most logical suitor. But if the Pirates are scuffling perhaps he’s available at the deadline. Of course if the Pirates are scuffling, he’s a good bet to not be playing at a high level and losing value

CamdenWarehouse: Are you taking Dan’s chat spot? Is Dan still going to chat with us?

Travis Sawchik: I am going to be chatting with you on Mondays at noon … Don’t worry, Dan will still be chatting (I believe on Wednesdays)

Fat Kenny G: Hi Travis. Welcome to the chats! How are you? Where you from? How’s your parents doing? Who’s your favorite team/player?

Travis Sawchik: Thanks/I’m well/Concord, Ohio/They’re well, thanks for asking!/Raised a Cleveland fan and loved Griffey Jr. as a kid. That swing. Swoon.

Hank: Does Jurickson Profar have 20 home run upside? What type of offensive player do you see him becoming with an eventual full season of at bats?

Travis Sawchik: I do, especially in a favorable park. He was once a top 5 consensus prospect and he presumably still has much of that talent

Big Z: Who ends up as a better career hitter; Schwarber or Sano?

Travis Sawchik: I like both but Schwarber’s bat seems special. What he did in the WS after missing almost the entire season was unreal

Bill: Gary Sanchez a consistent 4+ win player moving forward?

Travis Sawchik: That’s a high bar but the improving defensive skill set and overall reported maturation make it plausible

Erik: What sorts of baseball things do you care about far more than the average baseball writer (or better yet, far more than the average FanGraphs writer)? What things do you care about far less?

Travis Sawchik: Good question! I’m not sure what meets the criteria of an average FG writer, it’s a diverse crowd, but as a MLB/Pirates beat writer I really enjoyed enterprising, idea, trend pieces. I tried to blend human stories of process with analytics as evidence. And I will do some of that here, some journalism-type reporting pieces backed with data.

TwoSeaming: Jason Heyward.. any improvement in fantasy stats coming? Or is this who he is?

Travis Sawchik: That swing just looked broken last season. Can the Cubs rebuild it? Fascinating story to follow. I don’t want to bet against him or the Cubs.

Otis Redding: what did you do before fangraphs?

Travis Sawchik: I covered the Pirates for Trib Total Media in Pittsburgh and I covered Clemson in South Carolina before that. I took a winding road to FanGraphs

Trainman: Travis welcome to first baseball chat. Out of all the Mets starters who are coming back from injury, who would you be most confident in out of Harvey, degrom, Matz and wheeler?

Travis Sawchik: deGrom since he has the longest track record of success

Nicole: Any thoughts on who will be the starting catcher for the Indians next season? Any chance they end up splitting time at some point next season?

Travis Sawchik: My guess is Gomes opens as the starter but loses a share of playing time

biffyclyro: What are your favorite Aldi finds? We just started shopping there. The produce seems to be hit or miss, but overall we really enjoy it.

Travis Sawchik: Aldi can be hit and miss but the produce prices are incredible

Colby: Where do you see the direction of framing stats going in the future?

Travis Sawchik: If we eventually have robot umps that value vanishes instantly. It seems baseball tried to take away the low strike a bit last season, where much of the framing value resides. (It’s easier to get a low out-of-zone ball called as a strike). So even without robot umps, the value might be in decline, and all teams are valuing it to some degree to it’s harder to find a competitive advantage there.

caesar_solid: What will the Cubs do with Zobrist/Schwarber/Baez and LF & 2B?

Travis Sawchik: It’s a great problem to have. The general trend seems to be teams want to give players more and more rest to increase on-field efficiency so it’s not as if the Cubs have to break up that surplus.

Vic: Adam Eaton or deGrom over the next 3 years? I can only keep one.

Travis Sawchik: deGrom. Can’t have too many potential front-end starters, right?

Dan: Does Aaron Judge get the strikeouts down.

Travis Sawchik: Yes. But does he get them down to 35 percent or 25 percent?

Alien Raines: Thanks for the chat, Travis. From your time covering the Pirates in 2013 for the book, which player seemed most open and interested in incorporating data and analysis in their quest to become a better MLBer?

Travis Sawchik: Russell Martin was the first Pirates player to start wearing the Zephyr BioHarness, wearable tech that measured stress and fatigue. A lot of the clubhouse then followed him, which was interesting. Players can really influence others in the clubhouse. Martin is one of the more interesting players I’ve met in MLB. Mark Melancon is also very big into nutrition and exercise science, regularly having his blood analyzed among other practices

Mentor: Where will Mentor grad Mitch Trubisky be drafted?

Travis Sawchik: His family live son the next street over from my parents … I wonder where his parents would like him to land (maybe not No. 1 overall?)

John: Better chance of happening before 2021: Padres win an NL West crown or the Dodgers win a WS?

Travis Sawchik: Dodgers WS

Chaps: Do you think the recent uptick in rumors concerning Quintana suggest that a they’re working on a deal, or is it just writers trying to find something to write about during the past few slow weeks?

Travis Sawchik: It could be a little bit of both, I’m not sure. But if you’re going to commit to something (like rebuilding) I think you want to make a full commitment. So I think he’s moved at some point

biffyclyro: What was the biggest change or adjustment as you went from covering college football to being an MLB beat writer? Was getting into baseball writing always a goal of yours?

Travis Sawchik: I have BP annuals that go back to 2003 lining a bookshelf in my home, so I’ve always been interested in baseball analytics and different ways of thinking about the sport. It’s really tough to get baseball writing gigs, and there is no one path. I think in any area of writing you want to ask good questions and find interesting answers so there is a lot of cross-over in terms of process

Denver Tribe Fan: So are you filling the Fagerstrom Ohio native slot on the FG team?! (from a CLE native)

Travis Sawchik: Big shoes to fill! I am filling his vacancy, and I will create GIFs, but I will also have a my own voice etc.

Matt: Travis – you’re new here, so I wanted to give you a heads up. I’m Matt. But there’s often an imposter Matt in here. I’m the real one.

Travis Sawchik: Noted!

Jonathan: Is the Indians’ outfield sufficient or should they seek a big(ger) bat and pursue someone like Jose Batista?

Travis Sawchik: Cleveland has help on the way … and Edwin was a big dollar signing … so I can’t see there being a fit there

Trainman: Manny Ramirez to Japan.. that is incredible. Gotta love Manny.

Travis Sawchik: What would Barry Bonds do in Japan or the KBO right now?

Jose: Just started reading ‘Big Data Baseball’ and love it so far! Question: is it mandatory that these kind of books begin with the ‘he was supposed to be a star but wasn’t!’ narratives (Hurdle, Beane)? Keep up the great work, and glad to have you at FG!

Travis Sawchik: It’s not mandatory, but it sure helps create a more interesting story! But the thing about both books (one sold a lot more copies) is it wasn’t a forced narrative, two men who really evolved and changed

Moltar: Under Dan Warthen, the Mets have seen a number of pitchers take a big leap in terms of results at the major league level. Thanks to Eno we know all about the Warthen Slider, but there’s also been a velocity jump for a lot of guys as well. Going forward, should this factor in to our expectations for future pitchers as they reach the majors?

Travis Sawchik: Sure organizations have special individuals or systems of development that undoubtedly help players … It’s tough to know about all of that on the outside and include that into forecasts. But in this case, it should be a consideration

Matt: Travis, I don’t know if this question is out-of-bounds here, but would you care to offer two cents about the state of local news media now that you have moved from a regional newspaper that recently cut back its print production (and laid off a lot of employees) in favor of a national online forum? (Congratulations on your new gig, by the way. I will miss your Pirate-centric Trib coverage.)

Travis Sawchik: I’m rooting for all newspapers (digital forms and print)l Journalism – yes, even sports journalism – is important. We need a healthy, independent, objective press. But it continues to be a challenging time for traditional media …. The move to FG, for me, was in large part about an opportunity to cover and write about all of MLB and have some more creativity

Colt Holt: What is the next profession, besides scouting and statistician, which is on the rise in baseball?

Travis Sawchik: I will place a bet on anything related to performance science, from the physical side to the mental

Marc: Can keep one: Tanaka Taillon and D. Duffy (other SP keepers are Scherzer Kluber Price)

Travis Sawchik: What Duffy did in the second half was special …. He carries the most risk and upside, I think. I always like chasing upside

Rich: Having covered the Pirates, do you think there’s tension between ‘large market’ teams and ‘small market’ teams over revenue sharing and the luxury tax? Seems Sox/Yanks etc have gone on ‘strike’ in free agency citing tax ceiling.

Travis Sawchik: With the players’ share of revenue declining for more than a decade, a lot of folks are wondering where money is being spent. I’m surprised there hasn’t been a push by players (and large-market owners) to have a payroll floor to meet to go along with the luxury threshold

bananas: What’s the next big market inefficiency? With the draft and international markets both neutered in spending options, and all teams moneyballing, are we past the days of small-markets being able to compete with the big boys?

Travis Sawchik: There’s always something out there that is not valued properly. Now, the margins might shrink in some areas … but I believe there is more that we don’t know than we know

Regis Philban: Do the Pirates get Quintana? Whats the package?

Travis Sawchik: I know Ken Rosenthal and others have pegged the Pirates as a favorite. The Pirates have the assets to get a deal done. And they chased after David Price a few deadlines ago, so they’ve hunted big names/arms before. I could see it happening. I’m nmot sure if the Nova signing changes anything

John: Now that you work with fangraphs, do you still reside in Pittsburgh?

Travis Sawchik: I do! Please stop by for a French-fry smothered sandwich

Ellis: Are the Nats smarter to try and trade Harper before he walks, or are they better off holding on to him?

Travis Sawchik: It’s all about the context of the team and/or belief in resigning him. I think Harper becomes a Yankee eventually, but Nats are too good right now to trade off one of the game’s top stars

5 Run Homer: What is Marcus Stroman at this point? Closer to first half or second half of 2016?

Travis Sawchik: Good question. Not many comps with that body type. I just wonder about his durability.

rustydude: Chipper Jones and Jim Thome will be new players on the HOF ballot next year. Jones will probably get a lot of attention from voters in his 1st year. Do you see the same occurring for Thome?

Travis Sawchik: I think so. It’s a crowded ballot these days, as we know, but Jones is a first-ballot talent. Thome’s numbers suggest he is, too

jon: What is your view on the “X team won’t trade with Y team” phenomenon? As much as it seemingly makes sense for fans, I don’t see how it actively helps the rosters of the teams. Current example is Quintana makes infinite sense for the Cubs, yet that trade would almost certainly not happen.

Travis Sawchik: It might depend on how much ownership cares about the back pages of the local tabloids. I get the fear of trading in division, but no logical reason Chicago and New York teams can’t make major deals when pieces fit. Fans will get over it if deal produces Ws

Matt: Regarding Quintana: At this point it seems inevitable that he won’t be moved until the deadline, no? They want a package similar to Sale that other teams don’t seem willing to pay. The immediacy and guaranteed relevancy at the deadline should make it easier for teams to swallow, right?

Travis Sawchik: White Sox are in a nice position where they don’t have an immediate ticking clock thanks to his contract, so they can be patient and wait for the right deal to come along

EbenezerBatflip: Favorite Ohio beer brewery? Great Lakes? Rhinegeist?

Travis Sawchik: I know the Great Lakes lineup pretty well. I have a 12-pack of Dortmunder in house as we speak (I’m drinking Seltzer water at the moment, I promise)

Sonny: How excited should we be for Austin Meadows? Who does he most resemble on the Polanco/Marte/Cutch scale?

Travis Sawchik: Pretty excited … if he can stay healthy. LHH athlete with plenty of projection left.

mike sixel: What would a payroll floor do? Make Oakland or TB pay bad players more money? Make bad teams sign 1 year FA contracts for HUGE money? How would that work, on a bad, or really young, team?

Travis Sawchik: Ask the Sixers? … It would help baseball’s middle-case of players. Players’ share of revenue has fallen below, 50-50, I believe

Ryan S: Buxton had a brilliant September. The pedigree is still there. What’s more likely: Another demotion or 20/20

Travis Sawchik: Buxton is one of the more interesting players to follow early in 2017. I want to believe. I’ll say 20/20

powder: With the success of the KBO players’ transitioning to MLB so far, and the more mixed (but larger sample) results of the Cuban league players, would you rank the leagues as equal in level or is one possibly a higher level of play?

Travis Sawchik: The KBO sample is still pretty small. … But the KBO’s stock is up

Jonathan: is there such thing as a drawback of analytics? for example, would analytics encourage teams to become more risk adverse?

Travis Sawchik: There are probably drawbacks in anything if you don’t understand shortcomings of the tools, etc. But the good aspects outweigh the not-so-good

Jim: Are you a scout? What is your area of expertise? Thanks

Travis Sawchik: I am not a scout. Former newspaper man and lifelong baseball nerd

Ben: Hello Travis! Just saw that Hader is projected by ZIPS as the second most valuable pitcher for the Brewers and this just with 120 IP. What you expect from him both in 2017 and in the future?

Travis Sawchik: I do think he has a chance to be one of the Brewers’ better arms. I love the ability he showed to miss bats in milb

Andrew: Do you think McCutchen can still play above-average defense in CF?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think so. He was last in baseball in DRS last season and it’s a four-year decline

Burt: If you were in position to go back in time 90 days and handle the Rangers off-season, do you trade Darvish, Lucroy, Beltre, Jeffress & Dyson and deal with a bad 2017 & 2018 or keep them, trade Gallo for starting pitching for one last run and deal with a bad 2018-2021?

Travis Sawchik: I’m keeping that core for another run. Plus, it’s not always easy to sell with teams placing a premium on pre-arb talent and prospects

Outta my way, Gyorkass: What do you realistically think it will take to allow some of the pitchers of Mussina/Schilling’s caliber to make the HOF? Simply a “What the hell have we been thinking all this time?” revelation at year 15 on the ballot? Or, will it take structural voting rules changes?

Travis Sawchik: A larger ballot would help, but there probably should be new benchmarks in place for pitchers. Innings and total counting numbers are only going to continue to decline, I suspect. In Schilling’s case, I’m not sure enough is made of his postseason success

Ronnie: How crazy was Keon Broxton’s second half last year?

Travis Sawchik: Another player to watch in 2017. Fascinating skill set even with the swing and miss,

jon: The Cubs increased their front office budget by >$40 million in the 3 years after Epstein’s hire. It wouldn’t surprise if “R&D” is taking up a much higher share of MLB revenues than before.

Travis Sawchik: Could be. Smart place to invest.

Gavin: How comfortable should the Indians’ front office with Tyler Naquin as their primary center fielder entering 2017?

Travis Sawchik: He’s an offensive regression candidate and the D is shaky, so not very

EbenezerBatflip: Cleveland question, will fans show up in 2017 to support a very good team after a big free agent signing? I don’t mean this to be mean, but I live in Columbus and don’t understand why the Cavs have big turnouts but Indians don’t when the two venues are directly across from each other. If Cleveland fans don’t show up this year, is there something like fundamentally or systemically wrong with the team/GM/marketing/fanbase? I’m not trying to be mean, but it seems like maybe a rebranding might be for the best for reasons other than political correctness

Travis Sawchik: If the Indians’ attendance isn’t up this year, that’s really a problem. (I believe season ticket sales are up significantly). I do think there has been a perception issue tied to past payroll spending. But EE signing helps there and the whole WS appearance so …. Show up, Cleveland

E: What non-baseball things do you like/educated in so we can get you off track?

Travis Sawchik: Neftlix, AMC, HBO original programming …. Alt rock …Current events …. Beer (not to Eno level)…Raising a 2-year-old

Brad: What are your thoughts on Josh Bell? Thanks.

Travis Sawchik: I love the strike zone command, barrel ability, and switch-hitting. I’m a believer

CT: Welcome to FG! Any thoughts on the Sale trade?

Travis Sawchik: I liked it for both clubs. How is that for a hot take?

LudeBurger: Eno has beer. Jeff has volcanoes. Eric is a nerd. Dan has video games too. What is your hobby outside of baseball?

Travis Sawchik: What’s kind of troubling is I play sim league baseball (Hardball Dynasty) that takes up way too much time … it’s addictive. Ask Carson!

Jerry Seinfeld: What’s the deal with Desmond Jennings? Do you think he can ever have another productive year?

Travis Sawchik: I thought Jennings was going to be Carl Crawford with a better batting eye. I didn’t happen. And it’s probably too late now.

Nick: Do you have a dark horse team to make the playoffs this year?

Travis Sawchik: Tune in next week!

Travis Sawchik: Sorry, but that’s the end-of-program music you hear playing. Thanks for the questions and readership during this debut chat. I hope you enjoyed it. So glad to be here at FG! Until next time …