Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Greetings!

Travis Sawchik: This chat is going to have a delayed start as I’m in the Dodgers clubhouse until 12:30 pm est …

Travis Sawchik: So if you have a question you’d like to ask a Dodger, throw it in the queue!

Travis Sawchik: New estimated start time: 12:35 pm est

Travis Sawchik: Hey, I’m back

Travis Sawchik: Matt Kemp kicked us media hacks out

Joe: Thoughts on Neil Walker to the Bronx?

Travis Sawchik: For $5m? I love it for Yanks

Travis Sawchik: But it’s not been a good offseason, or few days, for freeagents

Augustus: Neil Walker signing an indicator Yankees don’t think Torres will be ready for the bigs soon? Or Walker just too big a bargain to pass up on?

Hannah Hochevar: With Neil Walker signing, when do you expect Andujar/Torres to come up?

Travis Sawchik: That’s a good question …. It allows the Yankees to not force an issue, and I really think Walker from left side is a great fit

Travis Sawchik: Yanks don’t have many weaknesses but most of their power/run production is RHH …and the switch-hitting Walker has been better from left side for his career

Paul: There seems to be a lot of optimism about Atlanta’s future. Can you tell me why? I get Acuna is awesome, but they poured a ton of resources into rebuilding around pitching, which is risky (and dumb) to begin with, and all of their arms seem incredibly risky. The rebuild would be a disaster without the Frank Wren regime signing Acuna and Albies.

Travis Sawchik: It’s a high-risk, high-reward system, but it also is a top-three system

Travis Sawchik: And the Braves should have a ton of payroll space next offseason

Travis Sawchik: And Acuna

William: The Yankees will be good.

Travis Sawchik: Yes

Travis Sawchik: I feel little confidence about much but I feel confident about that

goms: Is Boras’ losing some his pristine reputation to potential clients?

Travis Sawchik: Not a great offseason for Boras, for sure, but some of these forces are beyond what any agent can control for

Matthew: Eno and Jeff love Albies. Do you share the same love?

Travis Sawchik: Petriello loves him to and has pulled some interesting numbers on him. We should all love Albies.

Rock: Bird or Schwarber in OBP league?

Travis Sawchik: Bird

Q-Ball: So that leaves just Alex Cobb and Greg Holland!  Give us destinations for each.

Travis Sawchik: Phillies can afford to sign both … and they should just keep spending

E: Do you think the prevalence and accepted use of the win curve is negatively affecting players now? Pretty much every contender could use some combination of Cobb, Holland, Walker, and Moustakas before he signed. But none of those players move the needle drastically so it seems like teams don’t want to bother spending the money. It seems like teams may be building for 90-92 wins instead of 100 knowing that getting to the playoffs is all that matters.

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, it is probably another factor. And the second wild card doesn’t seem like a super strong incentive to spend, though the Twins have been aggressive

Jake: Travis, how can you evaluate performabce against the platoon with limited plate appearances? For example, Schwarber improved against lefties by wrc+. But small sample (even before)

Ryan: Friend thinks Yelich hits 35 homers. Crazy or good crazy

Travis Sawchik: It’s tougher with platoon splits because it’s a smaller sample by nature and really we need to dig deeper into zone discipline and batted ball quality to get a greater sense

Travis Sawchik: As for Yelich, he’s reduced his GB% by five points in back to back years … and if he continues that in a much more favorable park he can hit 30

Travis Sawchik: He has a road HR/FB% of 20 over the last three years

Travis Sawchik: He has plenty of power

Zonk: Should Brewers fans be mad if Neil Walker signs for a low $ deal with the Yankees?  Or do the Brewers believe in a Villar rebound?

Travis Sawchik: Walker could have helped a number of teams for $5 m

Aaron : Hey Travis, Keeper help. H2H 5×5 categories, keep 3, as first 3 picks of draft, can keep forever. Betts, Bellinger, G. Sanchez, Syndergaard or Bregman? who you got? Thanks

Travis Sawchik: Betts, Bellinger, Sanchez

TheGhostofKipWells: I know the general consensus of Pirates fans is very anti-front office right now, but there’s a lot to like about Colin Moran right?

Travis Sawchik: I’m a fan of all members of the fly-ball revolution

J. Peterman: Another year, another missed opportunity for a “Walker, Texas Ranger” headline.

Travis Sawchik: Maybe next year

Charles Finley: How much has Gleyber’s miserable spring and Wade’s injury scare contributed to the Neil Walker signing?

Travis Sawchik: It didn’t hurt

TheGhostofKipWells: If Tyler Glasnow is actually good, how much does that move the Pirates’ needle next year?

Travis Sawchik: Glasnow has a lot of proving to do

EbenezerBatflip: Is the salary cap/tax penalties going to be lifted or reduced? It seems like its way heavier-handed than either the players or the front offices expected it to be.

Travis Sawchik: The Dodgers have spent $4m on free agents …. that’s crazy

Travis Sawchik: Yes, next year’s class is a reason to reset tax status, but the MLBPA agreed to a form of a cap without a corresponding floor

pepper: why be optimistic on Braves, Paul?  For starters, just because you don’t like building around arms is no reason to discount what they do have.  Freeman is a stud. Albies/Acuna have great potential to be well above average and could easily also become studs.   Inciarte is above average.   A bit early to write off Swanson and no reason to think he cannot be a decent SS.   Leaves a few holes, sure, but that’s a solid start.  Pitching depth is excellent and cheap.  Popping a couple of guys into the Nola range is not an absurd assumption.  Salary cap situation is about to be excellent and adding selected free agents will further move the rebuild along.   Trading some of that SP depth for hitters is also a doable route.  Better question is why are you so down on the Braves?

Travis Sawchik: I’m with pepper on most of this

Mitchell: Deep league dart throw: Nimmo or Joc Pederson?

Travis Sawchik: Nimmo

Travis Sawchik: I really like the skillset

bbfan63: Using the FanGraphs Clutch stat I looked at the most clutch from 1974-2017. Gwynn is 1st. Rose is 2nd. Scott Fletcher is 3rd. Seems like we still have a lot to learn about what clutch is and isn’t.

Travis Sawchik: Really? The sabermetric community also once dismissed most of the value of catcher defense … so it’s possible we have morer to leaern on the subject

CamdenWarehouse: PSA – Don’t throw darts at either Nimmo or Pederson, Mitchell

Travis Sawchik: Let’s be clear on this, folks

pinstripe: The lack of spending by big money franchises also likely has to do with the “super team” era happening. The Dodgers only needed to spend that muchbecause they are good enough to not need to.

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, Cleveland, too and the Nats and the Astros

Brett: How mad will Boras be when the A’s win the 2nd Wild Card this season with a payroll under $70 million?

Travis Sawchik: Ha!

Another Spring.: With Walker and Moustakas signing for cheap. Do you think teams will be more careful about signing their young players to extensions that pay them (in the backend) upwards of 10-12M a year? There’s bound to be a few 30+ players who are cheaper and no long-term commitment.

Travis Sawchik: I think it’s all very case to case … Teams are usually pretty savvy about whom they target

Travis Sawchik: But not every extension is a win for the team

Grand Barn Door: Level of concern over Greinke’s velo drop?

Travis Sawchik: Not too much … yet …since he’s dealt with it in past springs and has overcome it

mike: I disagree about your Boras quote. It’s the job of the agent to read the markets for his players

Travis Sawchik: Well, to be clear, I also think Boras has cost some of his agents

Longesthagen: Jonathon Lucroy. Does he play well enough to get dealt by August?

Travis Sawchik: What happened to that glove?

Travis Sawchik: But, yeah, it’s possible

awy: Seems like yankees will go platoon heavy in terms of roster spot usage, with 3 position flexible infielder options.

Travis Sawchik: Walker makes them pretty flexible. I love it for Yanks

Brandon Nimmo: Believe in me or no?

Travis Sawchik: Yes

Travis Sawchik: 13% walk rate is a good place to start

Post Malone: How much does CAA pay you?

Travis Sawchik: $0

Travis Sawchik: It’s amusing to me that FanGraphs has gone from being criticized as a tool of front offices, to one of player agents

Ted: So what exactly do you think the Yankees’ 2B/3B breakdown will be? Walker is probably too good to not be heavily factored into it but a lot depends on what Andujar and Torres do in AAA/the rest of ST. There’s also Drury. A lot going on!

Travis Sawchik: This is complicated …. but it’s a good problem

Travis Sawchik: Walker starts at 2B vs. RHP and then I don’t know

Bork: Can you kick Matt Kemp out of the clubhouse for being a baseball hack?

Travis Sawchik: BBWAA card holders have rights!

Travis Sawchik: No. He could kick us out today at 9:28 am Arizona time because the clubhouse closed at 9:30 am Arizona time

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Sweet. Late to the chat but I show up just on time. I’m sure you’ll get lots of Arrieta questions, mine is about his decline.  Was there any injury or mechanical issues he had that caused his dip the last two years or is it just normal age decline?

Travis Sawchik: Not many Arrieta questions today …

Travis Sawchik: It’s probably mostly aging and that he was never going to repeat his 2015

Travis Sawchik: Still, he’s been an above-average MLB starter

Billy Beane: The Lucroy to Oakland fit seems pretty much perfect. You think he helps the young rotation?

Travis Sawchik: If Lucroy can get his framing acumen back I like it

EbenezerBatflip: When you’re childhood hero/favorite player retires, does baseball ever regain that lost sense of magic after any amount of years? Or is it gone forever?

Travis Sawchik: I think that child-like enthusiasm/magic is doomed to go away … but there are a number of ways to enjoy the game

Connor Z: Can Yadier Molina make it to the HOF based on the reputation of his arm and glove, or is he going to have to show a bit more?

Travis Sawchik: I think his case has largely been made and Jay is probably the better person to ask … but that Glove is HoF worthy

Nick: What’s going to happen when Alex Reyes and Jack Flaherty are showing they deserve rotation spots and Waino/possibly Mikolas are just barely hanging on? Do you keep Reyes in relief solely based on TJ recovery this year and move Waino to a Devinski type role?

Travis Sawchik: I want my best arms pitching the most innings they can

homan: Tribe was looking for a right handed outfield bat…carlos gomez to rays for $4mil seems like a steal…couldn’t tribe have been in on him?

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, I listed Gomez as a possible fit in a piece for The Athletic back in December … the Indians did sign Upton Jr. who can hit lefties, play CF, and could be their new Austin Jackson

Yankees: Will there be a single below average hitter in our regular lineup?

Travis Sawchik: No

Travis Sawchik: It’s an insane lineup

Hambone: There’s no way Tapia and Parra take away AB’s from a healthy Dahl, right? I assume McMahon will man 1B and Desmond LF.

Travis Sawchik: I think a healthy Dahl would get lion’s share of PT

Big Daddy Hacks: Are we taking Joey Votto and his offensive prowess for granted? Will he be remembered as a GOAT even though he was never given the opportunity to shine in October? Or will he just be another name in the Juiced ball/arms era?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think we are at FanGraphs dot com … but to the general sporting public he’s probably under appreciated

EbenezerBatflip: oh god i used the wrong version of your, i’m sorry i ever submitted that

Travis Sawchik: Every writer needs a good copy editor

elfuego25: Does being the last one or two free agents arms standing (rotating?) mean you get more money because teams are now desperate? Is there a team that is freaking out more than the others based of Spring Training results/injuries to their rotation?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think teams generally freak out in March

Morbo: Waino becomes an elite closer again?

Travis Sawchik: The stuff could play up in the bullpen a bit

Travis Sawchik: He was a 4-win, 22-year-old SS in 2016 …

Dogg4Life: What happened to Addison Russell and the hype train?

Travis Sawchik: Russell that is …

Travis Sawchik: He was a 4-win, 22-year-old SS in 2016 … not Waino

Travis Sawchik: He had a down 2017 and the SS group is in a golden age

Travis Sawchik: Easy to get lost in the crowd there

Carson Cistulli Sabathia: Eloy Jimenez is very large and hits balls very hard. That is all

Travis Sawchik: That’s a good place to start

dave in slc: talk of hedges new swing leading to good things, are you a believer?

Travis Sawchik: Didn’t he do this last winter, too?

Grapevine: What happens if Joey Gallo shows the same improvement in MLB that he typically showed when repeating a level in MiLB?

Travis Sawchik: A 5-7% K cut would be big

Travis Sawchik: I think there’s more there

Travis Sawchik: He’s not going to be Judge 2017, but there’s more

Nick: Where do you see Clint Frazier ending up? No way he stays a Yankee headed into 2019 right?

Travis Sawchik: He still seems pretty trade chip-y to me

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: What free agents, next season, get the Moose/Walker treatment?

Travis Sawchik: Well, they will both likely be FAs again

Travis Sawchik: There are going to be record contracts signed next year, but I do think the middle class of FAs will continue to be pinched

Kyle Schwarber: Since there is no official FanGraph’s office, are you allowed to flirt with your female coworkers? Not really creating a hostile workplace if there isn’t one.

Travis Sawchik: Probably a better question for the single FanGraphs employees

Travis Sawchik: We don’t have an HR department

Travis Sawchik: Or maybe Carson does that, too?

Travis: Does the arrieta signing have any influence whatsoever on the potential for the phillies to sign machado/harper/kershaw next year?

Travis Sawchik: Very little, I suspect …

Travis Sawchik: But they did guaranteed Arrieta real dollars in 2019 so it could have some influence

Mitchell: Yandy Diaz vs. Tyler O’Neill in an arm wrestling contest. Who ya got?

Travis Sawchik: Yandy

Harristotle: Decreased value of developing your own position player prospects when 3 WAR guys Mous/Walker are available at less than 6.5 mil?

Travis Sawchik: It’s a new world with non-closers are being paid more than regular positon players

William: “Or maybe Carson does that, too” is a bit too ambiguous in response to that question…

Travis Sawchik: Carson wears many hats, including that as our chief human resources officer

Endy Chavez: Let’s say Nimmo has a good April… in line with what he did last year. What do the Mets do when Conforto comes back?

Travis Sawchik: Good problem to have … Who can best wear a 1B glove?

HappyFunBall: Not everyone is going to be able to sign Harper and Machado. Some of that “let’s get under the cap” money and room is going to go unused. Do you think we see a significant boost in 2nd tier-FA spending next offseason?

Travis Sawchik: no

Bork: Donaldson gets the Moose/Walker treatment unless he has an MVP caliber season

Travis Sawchik: He’s going to be an interesting case if he’s good but no great in 2018

William: What do *you* personally want to improve in your baseball writing and coverage for 2018?

Travis Sawchik: I’d like to do some more reporting for FanGraphs, I got away from that a bit in the second half last season

Travis Sawchik: #RookieWall

Guest: If Conforto proves he’s healthy, could Bruce get traded as soon as this year?

Travis Sawchik: His contract might be hard to move if similar players are settling for 1-year deals at the moment

Jack Murphy: For a team like the Padres, who have a logjam of mediocre-to-potentially good players at multiple positions, does it make sense to send down everyone who has an option and keep all who don’t have options left? I’m picturing Renfroe, Cordero, Perdomo and possibly even Lamet all starting in the Minors, while Tyson Ross, Chris Young, Spangenburg, Mitchell, and Pirela open on the 25-man roster. The team won’t compete this year and I feel like it’s important to see what they have before cutting players for nothing. Thoughts?

Travis Sawchik: And it would also suppress service time …

William: Donaldson isn’t going to get the Moose/Walker treatment because he’s still going to be better than moose/walker…

Travis Sawchik: He’ll do better than 1y/$5m for sure

Can’t read good: NFL free agency is about to start- could there be a cold off season like MLB has had? Or does NFL already have cold-stove due to long standing salary cap, restricted free agency, etc.? Idk what the American Football version of Fangraphs dot com is, so I am asking here

Travis Sawchik: NFL owners cannot really have a MLB 2017-18 winter because they have a salary floor to meet

Travis Sawchik: Alright folks, I’m going to get back to visiting clubhouses around Phoenix and asking players if they have a minute to speak with a FanGraphs dot com representative

Travis Sawchik: Until next week, be good and do good