Twins Add Lance Lynn to Island of Misfit Free Agents

The Minnesota Twins continued a productive offseason over the weekend, signing Lance Lynn to a bargain-rate one-year, $12 million deal. Lynn turned down a $17.4 million qualifying offer from the Cardinals in November. He also reportedly turned down higher guarantees from other teams, per Jon Morosi. 

Not clear regarding those other offers is whether the average annual values of the contracts would have been equivalent or if Lynn would have had to forfeit the opportunity to explore free agency next offseason in exchange for a few extra million dollars. Whatever the case, it appears as though Lance Lynn will have to try his hand at free agency next winter if his ambition is to find a long-term home.

As for the Twins, they get great value on a player seemingly overlooked by the market. Indeed, the club seems to have specialized in this sort of deal over the winter. Heading into the offseason, for example, the crowd believed Addison Reed was in line for $27 million, the third-highest guarantee among relievers behind only the figures estimated for Wade Davis and Greg Holland. Reed ultimately agreed to join the Twins for just $16.75 million in mid-January — or less than the overall deals received by seven other relievers who’d signed at that point in the offseason.

The addition of Logan Morrison represents another instance in which the Twins have taken advantage of a slow market. The crowd expected Morrison to sign for $20 million. At the end of February, however, Derek Falvey et al. signed him for just one-third that amount.

Finally, there’s Lynn. Projected by the crowd to receive $60 million over four seasons, the right-hander settled for 20% of that figure. When the offseason began, it was reasonable to think that the Twins would need to guarantee $107 million to acquire all three players mentioned here. With just $35.25 million, though, the club signed the trio at a rate discounted by 67% from initial estimates.

The Twins’ bargain-shopping was not limited to free agency: the team also took on Jake Odorizzi and his $6.3 million salary in exchange for a prospect of little significance. Odorizzi went to the Twins not because of their willingness to provide Tampa Bay with considerable talent but because they were willing to pay his salary.

There are some logical explanations for the Twins’ apparent good fortune. For example, all the players acquired by the club come with significant question marks, and none are currently projected to provide more than two wins this season. That said, each possesses some kind of upside and a relatively recent track record of success. The combined five wins the club is projected to receive will cost just $33 million in 2018 salaries. Given the recent cost of wins on the free-agent market, the Twins’ efficiency should be lauded. More important than getting a good deal, though, they have also obtained solid major leaguers at areas of need.

Just over a month ago, I suggested that the Twins really, really needed starting pitchers. Examining the deep hole in the rotation following an injury to Ervin Santana, I concluded that “[q]uantity over quality might be Twins’ route back to the playoffs.” The Twins seem to have agreed. The club signed — and subsequently released — Anibal Sanchez, traded for Jake Odorizzi, and have now penned Lance Lynn to a deal.

Odorizzi was bad last season, but might be an adjustment away from the solid pitcher we saw in years prior. As for Lynn, he’s projected for a roughly average season. Depending on what metrics you prefer, Lynn’s 2017 campaign could be regarded either as a disappointment or another typically solid performance from one the of the more consistent pitchers in the league.

At its most basic level of statistical understanding, Lance Lynn pitched very well last season. The righty’s 3.43 ERA was 20% better than average. He was one of the top-20 pitchers in baseball when it comes to preventing runs. The peripherals tell a different story, however. During his first four years as a starter, from 2012 to 2015, the Cardinals hurler struck out 23% of batters, walked 9%, and surrendered homers on just 8% of fly balls. Last season — his first back from Tommy John surgery and rehab — Lynn’s strikeouts dropped to 20%, his walks increased to 10%, and he gave up homers on 14% of fly balls. Those factors combined to produce a mediocre 4.82 FIP and 1.4 WAR season.

While the strikeout and walk numbers weren’t great, it was really the homers that created the biggest difference for Lynn post-Tommy John. The burly righty’s always shown some pretty severe platoon splits, with a sterling 2.45 FIP against righties entering 2017 compared to a bad but acceptable 4.58 FIP against lefties. Last year, his FIP with the platoon advantage was a good 3.54; when the hitter had the advantage, though, that mark ballooned to 6.33, worst in the National League.

Lynn has long been almost exclusively a fastball pitcher, be it the four-seam, two-seam, or cut variety. That approach works well against righties, and it still worked effectively last season, but it has been more difficult to run the ball past lefties in recent years. Lynn tried a changeup last season with poor results, throwing the pitch just 81 times yet yielding three homers.

Despite his struggles against lefties, there is some reason to think Lynn’s low ERA is not purely the product of luck. If you believe that pitchers, and Lynn in particular, have control over the quality of the contact they allow, then Lynn’s low ERA last season is more representative of his abilities than his high FIP. Lynn was aided last season by a .244 BABIP, well below his career averages. Prior to Statcast, we could easily chalk up the BABIP to luck and assume that Lynn’s FIP represented his talent level. Now, using Statcast, we can determine how much of Lynn’s good results were deserved based on the quality of contact against him. Using xwOBA — which factors in strikeouts, walks, and batted balls via exit velocity and launch angle — we can create an estimate of what might have happened for Lynn last year in a neutral park with a neutral defense.

Lance Lynn’s xwOBA of .304 is better than the league-average of .311 and puts him right in the same range as quality pitchers like Gerrit Cole, Jose Quintana, Justin Verlander, and Michael Wacha. Despite the 27 home runs Lynn conceded last season, he generally induced weak contact.

If you believe that a pitcher is responsible for the contact allows –and I am personally skeptical about those claims — then Lynn’s solid ERA seems repeatable. If Lynn’s contactquality numbers aren’t repeatable and his strikeout and walk numbers remain below average, then Lynn is likely to see his ERA rise.

Another factor potentially complicating Lynn’s performance last year is his recover from surgery. If we reasonably assume Lynn struggled some with command in his first year back from Tommy John — a reasonable assumption — we can also assume these struggles might affect Lynn more than most given his propensity for fastballs. With better command, perhaps some of that weak contact becomes swinging strikes. Maybe a few of those home runs miss by just a little. If the Twins’ new acquisition returns to form, Minnesota will have a great value on their hands. Moreover, Lynn will probably receive more appealing offers next winter.

Given Lynn’s propensity to soak up innings, the floor is quite high. At $12 million in salary, this is a deal the Twins couldn’t possibly pass up. They’ve placed themselves firmly in the Wild Card discussion after patching up their biggest weakness.