Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Happy Draft Day, folks

Travis Sawchik: I am not our resident draft expert(s) but we will continue to have plenty of draft-related content

Travis Sawchik: So let’s talk about this game of baseball, shall we?

Bo: Have you read Rian Watt’s excellent article on Folty? Reason to believe he’s a front-line SP now that he’s got better separation between his FB/SL?

Travis Sawchik: Great piece and Ryan also noted how he has seemingly tightened up command and consistency of all his offerings. He’s made Bryce Harper look pedestrian which is tough to do.

Travis Sawchik: You could also make a case that Sean Newcomb was the best pitcher in the NL in May

Travis Sawchik: So Braves have some good things going on in the rotation

Keith Hernandez: Should the Mets trade everyone but Nimmo/Conforto/Thor and try again in a year or two?

Travis Sawchik: I’d test the waters on a deGrom return

Travis Sawchik: We project the Mets to finish 81-81. I’d be thinking about taking a step back to take two steps forward, kind of a partial rebuild

Travis Sawchik: Toronto ought to be thinking about a similar approach in the AL East

HashtagBeatLA.com: Today’s the day.  What are the chances Rocker or Hankins fall to the second round?  Would love to see the Giants draft either.

Travis Sawchik: here’s FG mock draft 3.0 https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-3-0/

Travis Sawchik: Looks like Eric and Kiley have each being selected in the sandwich rounds … so perhaps unlikely but possible either slips to second round

HappyFunBall: Offered Albies for deGrom (10x keeper), counter was MadBum. That good enough?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think so

Oyster Burns: if bird stays healthy, is he a top 15 1B? top 10?

Travis Sawchik: Big IF. But with healthy he’s a top 15 1B

yojiveself: Is Eloy coming up after the super 2 or do you think CWS waits the rest of the summer?

Travis Sawchik: It’s gonna get awkward to keep him down for much longer .. from the club perspective, there’s really little utility in bringing him up at all in 2018

Travis Sawchik: Maybe they should do the ole’ position change experiment to buy time

Ian: Odds that Greg Allen is a starting outfielder for the Indians when the ALDS starts?

Travis Sawchik: Give Zimmer’s struggles and questionable health of other options, I’d say there’s a reasonable change. I’ll say 40%

yojiveself: Whose breakout is more real – Muncy or Nimmo?

Travis Sawchik: I’m a Nimmo believer, I tired to free him from Triple-A earlier this season …. Muncy I have really studied but the underlying support skills are encouraging

TK07: How much better do you think Taillon’s slider makes him overall? Great pitch, or just a new toy hitters will adjust to?

Travis Sawchik: Never hurts to add another offering, particularly one that is in between the fastball and curve on the velo/movement spectrum. Kinda similar to what Bauer has added in Cleveland

Tim: Have your thoughts on Austin Meadows changed at all after this small sample size of MLB play?

Travis Sawchik: It’s helped. You wonder if there is something to some guys getting bored at Triple-A. He’s always been a good athlete with bat-to-ball to skills … stock is up

GY: How do you see the Indians crowded OF ultimately playing out?  Do you think they would take on salary at the deadline for someone like Adam Jones?

Travis Sawchik: It’s a good question. I think the bullpen has to get sorted out first and I’d be calling the Orioles and Padres and AL Central non-contenders … but there’s a case to be made for finding a rental CF

Gil: Thoughts on Bellinger’s struggles. I feel like he will have a monster second half. Too good a talent to not rake.

Travis Sawchik: We’ve been spoiled with some fantastic young hitters in recent years. Most players go through adjustment periods. I still love the swing and hitter. He’ll be fine, I think

Jim: What is up with Josh Bell? Seems to have regressed some this year.

Travis Sawchik: Josh Bell has 0.3 fWAR in 1,015 plate appearances. NWYW. I still think the ingredients are there for a solid ML bat but he just fit anywhere defensively and he really has to hit at first

Slurve: What will be the biggest shock of the draft?

Travis Sawchik: Better question for Eric and Kiley, but there seems to be a lot of consensus with the top 5-6 picks so any departure from that would be interesting

Ryan E: Harper for Albies and Adames, keep forever points league. Which side ya got?

Travis Sawchik: Harper. He still has a chance to be the best player of his generation not named Mike Trout

brad: Travis, Does the injury account for Hays poor performance this year, or are you worried it is something else?

Travis Sawchik: Rough start. I’m not sure what’s behind it. You worry about the free-swinging a bit. You almost hope the DL trip explains it

Dylan: We need a Brandon Nimmo article!

Travis Sawchik: [Thinking emoji face]

Chet: Why doesn’t Junis get any love? his ERA would be half a run lower if that awful bullpen didn’t keep allowing inherited runners to score.

Travis Sawchik: His team doesn’t help

Larry Williams: Would you roll out Duffy and/or Godley tonight?

Travis Sawchik: Bit of a dice roll, but Duffy might have figure an issue with tipping his pitches. Depending on the depth of your league, they’re viable

Bill G: Hi Travis.  Thanks for doing these chats.  Given the state of offense, would you be in favor of a rule that forced infielders to start each play on the dirt?  It seems as if the “rover” in short OF hurts offense more than stacking a side of the infield.  Thanks for your opinion.

Travis Sawchik: Thanks for the question, Bill. While do I have some concern about the march to the TTO singularity, I am still in favor with letting teams be as creative with positioning as they choose to be.

DBRuns: As a Cleveland fan, how concerned should I be about the Indians’ bullpen? It’s June at the unit has a 6.02 ERA.

Travis Sawchik: It’s the game’s worst bullpen to date. Getting Miller right will help, obviously, but they miss Bryan Shaw’s innings and they’re probably going to have to go outside the org for help. Padres and Orioles could be great trade partners. Problem is everyone knows the Indians need help and every team wants bullpen help

Mr. Nor’easter: After the Eddie Rosario Show yesterday, he now has 40 RBI. Do you think the growth real and will he keep this up?

Travis Sawchik: The air balls are way up so he might be reaching a new level

Clif Bar: What’s Blake Snell’s ceiling?

Travis Sawchik: He can be a legit ace and he might be getting  close

Ryan E: Keep two of the the following three beyond 2018: deGrom, Cole, C Mart

Travis Sawchik: Cole, deGrom

Justin: Astros amazing best of all time SP had a not best of all time week.

Travis Sawchik: FanGraphs Jinx!

HankLloydWright: I’m writing the bar exam tomorrow. What should I look for in a game tonight that will be a good omen that I will pass?

Travis Sawchik: Domingo German’s swinging strikes

Billy Beane: Have you seen this GIF of Blake Treinen’s 1 and 4 seam fastballs both more or less at 100 going like 2 feet in different directions? It’s filthy:

Travis Sawchik: Treinen’s stuff has always been filthy. Pretty absurd. A’s got themselves a great reliever

Uncle Mork: Do you anticipate the eventual return of Cespedes to eat a chunk out of Nimmo’s playing time?

Travis Sawchik: Sadly, yes

Jonny: Following up on the deGrom trade consideration…how significant a package should the Mets insist on? At least two top 50 prospects, plus another couple of pieces?

Travis Sawchik: Tough part is you’re only getting 2+ years of control. Pirates got far less for 2 years of Gerrit Cole (though Cole was far from this level)

kevinthecomic: With the Blue Jays basically out of it, there’s no way we see Vlad Jr. this year is there?

Travis Sawchik: Is the bat ready? Obviously. Does it make sense for the club? Not really. I’d try to sign him to a long-term deal now

Andrew: It’s June now, so if you had to amend your picks for each division winner, what would be the changes?

Travis Sawchik: AL looks fine. As for the NL ….

Travis Sawchik: I picked Nats, Cubs, Dodgers (real reaches, right?) and I might actually still stick with it given how the Dbacks’ bats have gone historically silent

Jordan: Travis what do with think the Jays should do? They clearly are not built for winning this year and every movable piece is either injured/suspended/hurt so returns wouldn’t likely move the needle. That being said, this is the same front office that come how came away with Teoscar Hernandez for Liarino at last years deadline so who knows… Oh and they have a boat load of money coming off the books this year and next

Travis Sawchik: The Jays’ future outlook is pretty bright given Vlad Jr. and that Double-A infield … but I’d be punting on this season and shedding every part that is not going to be part of surrounding the 2020-beyond core

Oyster Burns: Obviously Meadows isn’t going to hit 400, but do you think he’s good enough to force the pirates to keep him up ros? What are they going to do with this outfield logjam, wait it out?

Travis Sawchik: He is forcing a decision. I think you have to keep the kid up at this point and figure out the rest … even if you’re rotating four OFs

John: So the Seattle Mariners – are you a believer? They must be the pretty heavy favorite for the AL WC#2 at this point.

Travis Sawchik: 57% playoff odds! And if you put Paxton in a WC game vs. Red Sox/Yankees they have a decent shot to get to the ALDS

Guest: Kole Calhoun must be secretly hurt, right?

Travis Sawchik: a wRC+ of 3….3! Gotta be something going on

Travis Sawchik: Angels have the lowest platoon advantage in baseball and are so RHH heavy

Travis Sawchik: As I wrote about last week, there’s a case to be made for more Ohtani plate appearances

Rollie’s Mustache: A Donaldson trade return give his injuries and struggles is probably going to be super underwhelming, right? Any chance the Jays actually hang onto him and hope for a miracle run in Aug/Sept? They can always QO him and get a draft pick.

Travis Sawchik: The chances of Donaldson remaining in Toronto might have actually increased

DOMINIK: do we need to question the fly ball revolution to some degree now? there have definitely been success stories but the recent mlb investigation of the ball suggests that 100% of the power gains were due to the ball and some date suggest they actually explain more than 100% meaning the power might have actually declined. GB rates are slightly down but not higher than they were in the early 00s and only down like 2-3%. that is not nothing but it seems the biggest effect is actually the ball although there are undoubtly swing change success stories.

Travis Sawchik: 100% is a high degree of certainty

Travis Sawchik: We know Daniel Murphy, Lindor, Turner and others are legit swing changers and that average launch angle has increased every year during Statcast tracking so I believe swing changers have played a role … Has it been less than advertised/expected, possibly

Travis Sawchik: I think what also might be being overlooked is not so much average launch angle but hitters

Travis Sawchik: ‘ ability to attack and lift in the bottom third of the zone

CamdenWarehouse: how much of an org’s pitching philosophy is set by the major league pitching coach vs. the player development team?

Travis Sawchik: Good question. It varies from team to team. I believe Ray Searage has a lot of sway in Pittsburgh, for instance, but it’s probably more FO-driven in Houston

Nick : The Padres are 4 games better 61 games into this year than last. Plus their negative run differential is cut in half frlm

Travis Sawchik: Send your thank you notes to Bend, Oregon and Dave Cameron

PTBNL: Which of these guys will still be an Oriole on August 1?

Machado
Adam Jones
Zach Britton
Brad Brach
Darren O’Day
Dylan Bundy

Travis Sawchik: For the sake of the Orioles’ future, all but Bundy, hopefully … and if they’re blown away for Bundy, I’d deal him, too

Travis Sawchik: But I’m not sure BAL ownership has gotten on board with the CHC-HOU tanking model

Slurve: How many years from now will ERA, WHIP, RBI, AVG be secondary stats with the average fan?

Travis Sawchik: Interesting question. I still think it’s a decade away.

Travis Sawchik: I think a lot of the fault/blame is really tied to broadcasts. That is the media genre that reaches the most and widest demographic of fans

Travis Sawchik: We need more Jason Benettis https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-conversation-with-white-sox-play-by-…

PD: Odds that Felipe Vazquez needs TJ and that the Pirates are just sticking their heads in the sand?

Travis Sawchik: Something has seemed off with Vazquez for sure

MLB SCOUT : Are the Tampa Bay Rays the team with best youth potential in the American League?

Travis Sawchik: Yankees still have a deep system and lot of young ML talent and Blue Jays are in conversation, too

Travis Sawchik: Where would you rank Vlad Jr. on a list of Under 25 assets? He’d be in my top 20

Oyster Burns: I traded rosario away for a not awesome return, a mistake regardless of what my roster says. that said, I’m now super dependent on aaron hicks in a 6×6 obp league. how bad is it to be dependent on aaron hicks right now?

Travis Sawchik: What I like about Hicks is that the discipline gains have largely stuck from last year and he’ll hopefully have some better fortune on batted balls

Justin: Who will be in CF for Yankees next year? Hicks again, Gardner option picked up, or will they have a “monster offense but no true CF” in Harper/Stanton/Judge?

Travis Sawchik: I’d be OK with Harper in center

Alan: Francisco Mejia – still the CLE catcher of the future?  I feel yes, when?

Travis Sawchik: Yes, I think, but it’s complicated and that future is not arriving this year, at catcher at least

Emily: I’ve been to 17 MLB parks and PNC is my favorite. Do you agree Travis?

Travis Sawchik: PNC is the best of the retro-era parks (Sorry, SF). Beyond the outfield backdrop, it’s the first park since Milwaukee County to be constructed with just two decks, meaning fans are closer to the action any of the new-age parks

Travis Sawchik: I’d put Wrigley at the top of the non-retro park list and probably No. 1 overall due to the proximity to action, neighborhood setting and ambiance

Travis Sawchik: SF, SD, Fenway, Dodger Stadium (underrated) are all great

Aaron: Travis, what are your best tips for transitioning to a job where you work from home?

Travis Sawchik: #focus …. I like to change it up and work outside my home at a coffee house or elsewhere regularly. Working in isolation has many benefits but it can also become stale. Something to be said for human interaction

Mike: Cozart or Davidson ROS? OBP league

Travis Sawchik: If you don’t need a SS-eligible, Davidson

Travis Sawchik: I think the adjustment is real, to a degree, though I understand he has feasted on the Royals

Moltar: The Mets’ best hope for getting maximum value for deGrom is a feeding frenzy at this year’s deadline, correct? No other pitcher in his stratosphere will be available. Please tell me the Mets won’t repeat the mistakes of their last rebuild (appr 6 years from ’09-15) and wait too long to trade players while signing midrange veterans on the downswing instead of playing young developing players.

Travis Sawchik: I think that could be true. It’s not too late this coming offseason either, if a team doesn’t want to pay premium FA prices for pitching

Juan Soto: JUAN. SOTO.

Travis Sawchik: Even if Harper walks, Nats are still going to be competitive  in 2019 and beyond

Taco Tuesday: Random NBA question: do you think next year the NBA Finals has 2 different teams in it?

Travis Sawchik: No. Warriors are an All-Star team, which I don’t love as a casual fan

Babe Lincoln: What are the odds Harper ends up being better than Trout for any 3-year stretch?

Travis Sawchik: Not great but probably better than many think because every player is one significant injury away from performance decline/inconsistency

Travis Sawchik: Hard to really see that as a possibility in the next 5-6 years, though

Raymond: Gennett’s last calendar year: 614 PA, 36 HR, .318/.362/.563 slash line. Even without the 4 homer game he would still be a phenomenal hitter, especially for a second baseman.

Travis Sawchik: That’s wild

drew: who is better shohei or judge

Travis Sawchik: I take the once-in-a-century skillset. Sorry, Aaron

Travis Sawchik: Alright folks, thanks for the great questions … until next week: be good, and do good