Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Welcome, y’all

Travis Sawchik: Chatting live from Champion Stadium here in Disney World (The Braves are the last team standing in Orlando …)

Travis Sawchik: Yes, I-4 is still brutal. Anyways, let’s chat …

Erik: How much has the MLB hurt the future of the WBC by having its only English-language broadcast be on the MLB Network?

Travis Sawchik: It certainly didn’t help. The US-Colombia, US-DR, and DR-Colombia games have all been really good TV … but I’m not sure how many are watching (or able to watch)

Travis Sawchik: The WBC probably needs a new home on the calendar. My free advice is to follow the NHL model with Olympics and play it in season in July … But WBC might also need a new home on cable. If cable still exists in 2021, that is

@RDavidK: Could get away from the Bucs, eh?

Travis Sawchik: I can’t quit the Bucs

Phan: which players on the current philies [25 man] roster do you think will be contributing members of the next playoff caliber team?

Travis Sawchik: Herrera, Franco, Nola, Velasquez, Eickhoff, Neris …. those guys, I think

Hector: Travis, I know spring training performances normally don’t matter all that much but what do you make of Harper’s so far? The power is there obviously and he seems to be hitting the ball with authority (even his outs seem loud).

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think Harper was healthy for many games last year. I think we’re seeing a healthy Harper (at least for the moment), and a healthy Harper is more like 2015 Harper. So fantasy players, buy Harper

Finnigis : In a 12 team auction, I’m thinking about both targeting T Turner and Correa. Thoughts?

Travis Sawchik: Not sure about Turner, but I think Correa could provide a significant profit this year

Phil: How much time will Ian Desmond miss?

Travis Sawchik: I believe Desmond will see a hand specialist today. We should know more after that. He’s certainly out for the first couple of weeks of the season at the very least. I think low end of outcomes for a finger fracture is 4-6 weeks

Bork’s Unborn Son: would you rather have one 70 FV prospect or 4 55 FV

Travis Sawchik: One 70

Travis Sawchik: That’s a rare player …. I will take that and try to fill in the rest elsewhere

Keith Hernandez: What fantasy value does J.P. Crawford have in a standard 5×5 roto?

Travis Sawchik: The depth of the position isn’t helping Crawford’s value right now. He projects as a low-end starting fantasy SS right now, I suspect

Erik: What’s more likely in 2021: the WBC is played in July and on a better tv station, or the WBC doesn’t exist?

Travis Sawchik: WBC doesn’t exist. But I’d love to see in July and on a major network

Tribe: Have a weird hypothetical for you– say Noah Syndergaard was a free agent this offseason. Obviously he is just 24 with some of the very best stuff we have seen from a SP in a little while. Though, he is seemingly a pretty major injury risk just because of the sheer velocity of his pitches. How would teams weigh these two factors against each other and what kind of contract do you think he’d get?

Travis Sawchik: He’d received top-end FA SP money, I think. Even if teams price in that he’ll miss a year, I still think teams would be falling over themselves in the bidding. Strasburg has a lot of healthy/durability issues and signed for 7y/$175m. I bet Thor could beat that

Joe: Who’s signing Brett Lawrie, if anybody?

Travis Sawchik: Someone will, eventually. Royals, maybe? Maybe a team like the Rays sees some upside?

Mitch Conners: Trade Porcello in my keeper league while his value his high?

Travis Sawchik: I would. I’m not sure his underlying skills changed all that much in 2016

Babe Lincoln: Harper #2 in a fantasy draft? If not, who?

Travis Sawchik: I actually don’t hate that but maybe Mookie … Nolan Arenado keeps getting better and skill plays in Coors. Kris Bryant?

jerb: Was Aledmys Diaz for real last year? i.e. what can the Cards expect out of him this year?

Travis Sawchik: Pretty real. I’d expect more of the same with a little less in batting average/BABIP

David f: Gotten a chance to watch any Mets spring Training games? Any hot takes?

Travis Sawchik: I have not had a chance. Like most, I’d like to see Conforto break with the club but I’m not sure he has a spot at the moment

Reginald Denton III: How do you view Giancarlo Stanton? Still an elite option? Or given the K’s and low BA, is he morphing into an average-type player?

Travis Sawchik: If he could stay on the field there’s 50 homers and a monster season possible … But health is a skill

joe: how bad is the outlook for the Reds? could they be relevant by 2020?

Travis Sawchik: The outlook is pretty bleak. I don’t know that I see relevance by 2020 but a Brandon Finnegan breakout this year wouldn’t hurt

Hot Dogs are Sandwiches: Do you think that any team is close to quantifying clubhouse intangibles? Is that even possible? (Assuming that they actually exist!)

Keith Hernandez: Do we ever see the level of passion and excitement in the MLB that we saw in that DR-Colombia game? It seems to me that most of the celebrating would have been taken as showboating and the baseball purists would go nuts. Frankly, I loved it.

Travis Sawchik: We don’t. We get closer in September. But it’s tough to replicate that passion in the midst of a grind of a 162-game season. But that game is one reason why the WBC shouldn’t go away

Paul: Braves are competing for a playoff berth in what year?

Travis Sawchik: 2019. I don’t think they are too far away.

Ray Finkle: Do you believe Moncada will put up elite fantasy production in the next three years?

Travis Sawchik: Not this year. Not next year. Maybe in 2019. Some adjustments to be made

Joe: When’s the next star for star trade (a la McGriff/Fernandez for Alomar/Carter) and who’s it going to be?

Travis Sawchik: We don’t see many of these deals do we? Especially with so many clubs clearly in rebuild mode. But I hope we see one soon. They are fun.

steve: How many K’s and wins for Paxton this year?

Travis Sawchik: 11 and 154

Sonny: Do you expect a return of the ‘Evil Empire’ Yankees with a big splash in upcoming FA signings? They’d be more fun to root against with Harper in RF

Travis Sawchik: I do. I think the Yankees are going to go crazy in FA spending in the ’18-19 winter. Yankees or Field for Harper?

Paul: Wow, 2019 for Atlanta? What above average regulars will they have? Swanson, Freeman, Inciarte and maybe Albies?

Travis Sawchik: I think they’re going to have some arms and they will find a way to fill in position-player voids. Also, bottom half of NL could be pretty weak

ManBearPuig: If Manny Machado played shortstop, he would be the ____ best shortstop in the league.

Travis Sawchik: It’s an elite SS group, of course, but due to WBC recency bias I’ll say No. 1.

Joe: Are there any pitchers who received Cy Young votes last year you expect to really recede?

Travis Sawchik: Porcello and Happ

tired: Hey travis. Not sure if you hate doing fantasy questions but i’ll give it a shot. Standard 5X5 12 man league ($300 at auction). I am worried about odor. I have him at $10. Do i trade him for $12 darvish? or do i trade him for $10 polanco? Or do i trade him and $20 arrieta for $22 machado? or do i hold odor and relax?

Travis Sawchik: Go get Manny

Marky Mark: With the minor league signing of Pedro Alvarez by the O’s, do you expect the slugger market to pick itself up next offseason or is this a prolonged drought of expensive slugger signings?

Travis Sawchik: Good question. I think the drought is going to continue as teams seek more versatility, and especially if HRs continue to be hit near a 2016 pace … making them much less scarce

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Travis Sawchik: Good Will Hunting worked out for you, eh?

pirates hurdles: Next Star trade: Schwarber for Archer next winter after Kyle flops in LF.

Travis Sawchik: yes, the Cubs are a team that has star position-player surplus to trade from to fill a pitching void.

Travis Sawchik: But I’m not sure Schwarber is the guy they will move

Sox 2019: In a head to head with OPS instead of AVG. Is Carlos Santa a better choice then Hanley if I cam get him a round later?

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, I think so. He’s going to get his 100 walks

AJ: Does Bautista’s 88 MPH throw the other night change your mind about his ability to tick back up his D stats?

Travis Sawchik: A little bit. I think I read where he only hit that mph twice last year on throws. I spoke to Bautista last week, actually. He said he wasn’t healthy for much of 2016. I already thought the bat would be better but maybe the whole package will be better. He’s going to create some surplus value in 2017

Trainman: Hey Travis, hope your well. I know spring training stats don’t matter, but for players In the WBC, do you place more of a weight on the stats the players put up since they are playing competitive baseball rather than exhibition games in Arizona or Florida? By the way I’m loving the WBC this year, what are your thoughts?

Travis Sawchik: I still wouldn’t place too much weight in them. Small sample and all. And Team Canada had Ryan Dempster pitching. Ryan Dempster! Quality of talent varies wildly from team to team

Rob: Jose Quintana seems to make a ton of sense for the Yankees. Affordable for the next four seasons and a #1 or 2 starter. If they go big in FA in ’19, they should be able to part with some prospects (other than Torres) from their loaded system. What do you think?

Travis Sawchik: Yankees have the assets to move … though I think they might prefer to hold off another year on making that commitment or a similar one. If I’m Rick Hahn, I’m pretty pleased with what I saw on Friday night in Colombia vs. DR

Ivan Drago: Does Julio Urias have ace potential?

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, I think so

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Stroman looked on point in the WBC. Does he join Ace-hood this year?

Travis Sawchik: Stroman looked great. But there’s not much track record around 5-8 righties in a rotation. I’d love him as a multi-inning relief ace

Pomeranz: Breakout season for Polanco this year for the bucs?

Travis Sawchik: I think he broke out in the first half last year … and then injured his shoulder. He’ll be good again with health

Heading for the Hills: Would you rather have a $15/Moore or a $1 Gsellman in a 5×5 NL roto league?

Travis Sawchik: $1 Gsellman

Ben: What hitter hanging on as a very good player, like Beltre, Beltran, Holliday, Yadier, Braun, Bautista, etc., suffers a large drop in production this year? Or, moving beyond steroid era and into better healthcare/lifestyle knowledge, do we see only slow declines outside of big injury?

Travis Sawchik: Good question. We don’t know a ton about how the 21st-century athlete is going to age. Our aging models might become somewhat meaningless

Marky Mark: Will Steve Pearce + Kendrys Morales supply the power and hits that the Jays lost in EE this year?

Travis Sawchik: I think Morales is going to have a nice year in Toronto. They’ll come close

Matt: Harper or Machado?

Travis Sawchik: Both

JKD: Not only am I taking “field” over NYY for Harper, but I’ll take whatever odds you’re offering on LAD – think it’s much likelier.

Travis Sawchik: I’d take the Field, too. But I still see Harper in NYY

Pomeranz: best pitcher in bucs staff this year will be_______?

Travis Sawchik: Gerrit Cole

Travis Sawchik: Cole was really, really good in 2015. He had an offseason injury and three DL trips last season. As with so many players, it’s all about health

dave in slc: al only keeper league do you pony up the $ for jose Abreu or wait for the next guys avail Pujols, Carter, Bird, Vargas. Pretty thin pool this year. Abreu may not go as high as past though, it does seem he is not getting as much hype

Travis Sawchik: I like Bird.. But we know Abreu is going to get his at-bats and he does seem to be a bit undervalued

Big Joey: Is Andrew Benintedi worth a 7th round pick in a keeper league? (7×7 extra categories are OBP, SLG, L and HLD)

Travis Sawchik: yeah, he’s going to hit for forever

Reginald Denton III: Who has the better season: Gausman, Bundy, or Paxton?

Travis Sawchik: Paxton

Travis Sawchik: But I want to believe in Bundy. He looked really good when I saw him last week. Cutter was in play

Coach K: Is Strasburg throwing out of a stretch 100%, and reducing his % of sliders something that will ultimately be of benefit or will the hitters catch on quickly?

Travis Sawchik: Stretch has helped some pitchers like Carlos Carrasco. It’s worth exploring

Big Joey: Moral Question: Should I feel bad about taking advantage of a new owner in my long standing keeper league (been around for 12 years). I made an offer that already benefitted me but he responded and actually offered me more (picks for the upcoming draft). The reason he offered more is because he clearly didn’t understand what my original offer was.

Travis Sawchik: You should feel a little bad

CamdenWarehouse: There is a lot of love for Paxton at FG, which I get to a point, but doesn’t he need to show that he can pitch close to a full season before we go too crazy?

Travis Sawchik: Wouldn’t hurt. But so does a Bundy …. All pitchers are health risks

Robin: What players do you think have been over-hyped this offseason? Really beginning to feel Haniger will be a disappointment to tons of M’s fans even if he does reach his projections

Travis Sawchik: Gary Sanchez?

jerb: who makes more money in two winters? Harper or Machado?

Travis Sawchik: Harper … but I don’t have a ton of confidence in that response. Still, we’ve seen Harper’s upside and that’s the best player in the NL

Heading for the Hills: Would the WBC played during the All-Star break be a good time for it?

Travis Sawchik: I think so

Trainman: Tim Tebow.. just because.

Travis Sawchik: Can he beat this level of production … http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Michael-Jordan

Sam: I’m not too knowledgebale on Minor league wage structures other than they get paid very little. Is this an area where if a team paid them more, it could be some sort of market inefficicncy that the rich teams should take advantage of? How much of a lack of money committed is due to owners not wanting to anger other owners?

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think the dollars being debated over are significant enough to create a competitive advantage for larger market clubs

Guest: You just posted in the middle of the chat. How many of you are there?

Travis Sawchik: Two…if including Carson

dwest: Will either Harper or Machado clear the 325 million$ mark?

Travis Sawchik: Each will and by a wide margin

Guest: Joey Bats: O/U 130 games?

Travis Sawchik: Over

dwest: So, following up to Harper/Machado: 400 million? 500 million? Just how gloriously high are these contracts gonna be?

Travis Sawchik: $400ish

Travis Sawchik: Or the owner could give Machado and Harper his franchise, and Harper and Machado then pay the owner a sum

bob: 6 keepers in a 12-team pts league. Which 1 should I drop: Votto, Freeman, Posey, Cespedes, Carpenter, Strasburg, or Hendricks

Travis Sawchik: Hendricks

CamdenWarehouse: You don’t think that a July WBC would lead to more guys skipping it because they want a break? What about a January WBC?

Travis Sawchik: Possibly. But baseball could create some incentive to participate it if nationalism proves to not be enough of a drawing card

Marky Mark: Which team should make facial hair mandatory for all players in order to antagonize the Yankees the most?

Travis Sawchik: Weren’t the Red Sox already doing this?

Steve: how is health a skill?

Travis Sawchik: Some players stay on the field consistently, others do not

Erik: Won’t the Dodgers be too near their payroll max to be in play for Harper? Or do they have serios money coming off the books?

Travis Sawchik: Dodgers have some contracts coming off the books https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ptt-JUWZO-gjWlqbOvJjhFnht3auZrceokTfTAiCdww/pubhtml

Matt: Joc Pederson breakout coming?

Travis Sawchik: Post-hype alert

Wes: I know it was the WBC, but Duffy looked fantastic. What do you realistically expect from him this season? Any major regression from last year?

Travis Sawchik: I really like Duffy. Three plus pitches and improved command

Marky Mark: If the entire MLB organization was on the Titanic and your lifeboat only had three seats left, which three people would you take for their personalities?

Travis Sawchik: Brian Kenny, Francisco Lindor and Joe Maddon

Joe P: What do you think of Maeda this year? Did the league catch up with him toward the end of last season or did he tire? Or both? Does he take a step back in ’17? Thanks

Travis Sawchik: He should be stronger in theory this year after adding bulk. I don’t see why he can’t come close to his 2016 production and add some innings

jknight82: Great Gerrit Cole read on Friday. Do you think he will put it all together and top his 2015?

Travis Sawchik: He’ll be better … But I’d like to see him trust his changeup

Tom: Why do I love Matt Holliday this season? I see a .270/27/90 season coming. Am I high on drugs, or is he extremely underrated in fantasy this season?

Travis Sawchik: He’s 37. Even in Yankee Stadium II, I can’t buy in too much

Houzer : I hate the intentional walk rule for this year .. it saves no consequential time during the game, and takes a fun fan thing out of the game … booing the opposing pitcher for being a coward

Travis Sawchik: You can still boo for cowardice … it will just be for a briefer period. Batter still has to advance to first base

Dave P: I usually don’t pay too much attention to early spring training stats, but Heyward’s spring batting numbers are some of the few numbers that could indicate a red flag. Could Heyward’s hitting really be as bad as it has looked this spring and in 2016?

Travis Sawchik: I’m not sure that swing can be fixed in one offseason, if at all

Z: I know it’s the WBC, but what Marcus Stroman did against that stacked DR lineup was rather impressive. Do you expect a true breakout year for Stroman this season?

Travis Sawchik: That was awesome. My only concern is about his size and durability

CamdenWarehouse: Multiple Travises? That’s how he writes so much!

Travis Sawchik: There’s really only one, which is why I regret to inform you that I’d rather stay but I must go and write. Same place/time next week, friends