What a Difference Ten Days Can Make as Postseason Odds Shift and Swing

After a frantic trade deadline with an excess of buyers, a few committed sellers fielding offers, and a handful of in-betweeners on the cusp of contention, the month of August is doing its best to separate the real contenders from the rest. Ten days in, five teams — the Angels, Yankees, Guardians, Reds and Diamondbacks — have seen their playoff chances slashed by more than half, and a sixth (the Red Sox) has gone from 24.6% to 13.8%. Meanwhile, the Rangers responded to a late-July skid with an eight-game winning streak, the Cubs doubled their playoff odds with series wins over the Reds and Braves, the Phillies played their way into the top Wild Card spot in the National League, and the Mariners swept the Angels and Padres to leapfrog New York, Boston, and Los Angeles in the AL Wild Card race. It’s been quite the shuffle for a ten-day stretch.

Some of the early-August woes have been particularly dramatic in fashion. The Angels made a valiant decision to go all in on the final season of Shohei Ohtani’s contract, but despite adding Lucas Giolito, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk, a seven-game losing streak dropped their playoff odds from 19.5% to a bleak 1.4% (they’ve since recouped all of one percentage point with a pair of wins against the Giants).

The other contender for the AL’s most frustrated clubhouse so far this month: the Yankees, who went with a soft buy at the trade deadline. Things got even worse days after the deadline, first with Domingo Germán leaving the club for “inpatient treatment for alcohol abuse,” and then Anthony Rizzo going on the injured list with symptoms of a “likely concussion” attributed to a collision that happened over two months earlier. Despite all this, the Yankees managed a series split with the Astros at home, but recent series losses to the Orioles, Rays and White Sox have continued a freefall that started in the absence of Aaron Judge in June and July, dipping their playoff odds under 10%.

Things are not looking much brighter in Boston. The Red Sox played some of the league’s best baseball in July, just in time to convince Chaim Bloom and his staff to hang on to some of the talent that might have enticed buyers at the deadline. But despite a series win over the Royals this week, the Red Sox are now 4–8 in their last 12, including a crucial sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays at home last weekend. Frustrations have boiled over into the clubhouse, as well, with Alex Verdugo earning his second benching of the season from Alex Cora after apparently arriving later than expected to Saturday’s game, prompting Cora to call Saturday “one of his worst days” with the Red Sox. Now they have nothing to show for their outstanding month; at four games back from the third wild card, they’re further out of a playoff spot than they were at the start of July.

Then there’s Cleveland, where the Guardians have won as many brawls as they did games in the first week of August. Despite being just a game behind the Twins for the AL Central lead, they opted to sell at the deadline, moving Aaron Civale, Josh Bell, and Amed Rosario. Unsurprisingly, they’ve gone 3–6 to start August thanks to an anemic offensive effort, failing to score more than five runs in a game in two weeks. The stretch was lowlighted by baseball’s most explosive on-field fight of 2023 during Saturday’s loss to the White Sox, which resulted in suspensions and fines for José Ramírez, Emmanuel Clase, Terry Francona, and third base coach Mike Sarbaugh. Their playoff odds have dwindled from 27.8% to 12.3%.

These American League meltdowns have worked out well in particular for the Mariners, who have helped themselves with series wins over the Red Sox and Angels and a seven-game winning streak powered by excellent pitching. They’ve allowed three or fewer runs in six of those seven wins, posting a 2.96 ERA, 3.47 FIP and 3.62 xFIP to start the month with a .254 wOBA against, the second lowest in the majors. With Los Angeles, New York, Boston, and Cleveland trending down, Seattle now has the upper hand among the teams on the outside looking in. The Twins, too, have benefitted specifically from Cleveland’s stumbling, and thanks in large part to the events of the last 10 days, have a comfortable 85.9% chance of taking the AL Central.

In the National League, the collapses of the Diamondbacks, Reds, and Marlins have been dramatic in scale, if less so off the field. Arizona was one of the best teams in baseball in the first half, separated from the Dodgers for the NL West lead only by percentage points. In the second half, the D-Backs have been the worst team in baseball at 5–19, including an 0–8 start to August after an active deadline that brought in Paul Sewald, Tommy Pham, and Jace Peterson. They’re experiencing somewhat of a reversal in run-differential luck; after going 57–50 with a run differential of zero through July, seven of their eight losses in August have come by one or two runs.

The story is the same in Miami and Cincinnati. The Marlins and Reds had the fourth- and eighth-best records in baseball in the first half, respectively, despite both having negative run differentials. But after staying relatively quiet at the deadline, the Reds have gone 1–8 in August, not only losing their division lead but also falling out of playoff position altogether. Meanwhile, the only thing keeping the Marlins in the third Wild Card spot (and with comparably high 41.1% playoff odds as of now) is that the Diamondbacks and Reds have been worse.

All this floundering has been to the benefit of the Phillies, Giants, and Brewers, who have each enjoyed playoff odds bumps of 10 or more percentage points in the last 10 days without having to play all that well. The Cubs have continued a hot second half with a 6–3 start to August, eclipsing the 50% playoff odds threshold for the first time all season this week after hitting a season low of 6.3% just three weeks ago on July 20.

All told, in the first 10 days of August, 14 teams have seen their playoff odds shift by double digits in one direction or the other. It’s been a remarkably streaky stretch of pennant-race baseball across the league.

If all of this can happen in 10 days, the next 10 could bring just as much reshuffling and chaos. There are still more than seven weeks left in the regular-season schedule, and if the Cubs can make that kind of progress in three weeks, there’s still hope for those who have had catastrophic starts to August. And if Arizona and Miami can fall as far as they have, it’s no sure thing that August’s early winners will continue their momentum.