What does Brandon Morrow Offer?

A quick look over a list of free agent pitchers produces many different types of arms. Top-end near-aces, mid-rotation stalwarts, backend veterans, and high-ceiling lottery tickets. Brandon Morrow is an intriguing lottery ticket for any team willing to take the plunge. Long on promise but short on results, Morrow is the kind of electric arm that front offices simply cannot resist.

At some point, however, potential and stuff lose some of their magnetism. When a guy’s only thrown 90 odd innings over two years, you start to wonder if maybe he isn’t worth the risk?

The thing about Brandon Morrow, of course, is this has always been the knock on the hard-throwing right hander. Remember, this was a pre-arb pitcher traded to Toronto for reliever Brandon League and a minor league outfielder still yet to surpass double-A.

Like so many other power arms, Morrow flashed brilliance and looked the part of a top-of-the-rotation ace at times. Other times, he lacked command, floundered through laborious starts and struggled to stay healthy.

Even when he was good, you wanted him to be better. All the pieces appeared to be in place, the entire combustible mix simply refused to stay put for extended periods of time. Despite a high walk rate, he always struck out enough batters to post well above-average strikeout differentials and he was never particularly home run prone.

But the whole never became the sum of its parts. Morrow constantly tinkered, alternating between curves and sliders, changeups and cutters. He tried different release points to ease the strain on his body and in an attempt to coax more ground balls out of his plus stuff. A necessary adjustment after his become the first pitcher to throw more than 150 innings while inducing less than two ground ball double plays. One GIDP in 179.1 innings – and it came in his second-last start of the year!

Efficiency was his mantra heading into the 2012 season, which came at the expense of his strikeouts and then a variety of injuries kept him from doing much of anything.

Now, after the Blue Jays declined his $10 million option for 2015, he’s a free agent. The Fangraphs crowd predicts he’ll receive a one-year contract worth around $6 million. But to do what, exactly? Some scenarios…

Brandon Morrow as reclaimed starter project

This is going to be the carrot most teams dangle before Morrow and his agent. A chance to start, to maximize his value in a one-year pillow contract so he might head into the free agent pool again next winter. Fangraphs’ own Dave Cameron predicts the Astros might scratch this lottery ticket while MLB Trade Rumors believes the Dodgers can put together the best combination of big ballpark and postseason promise.

The problem with this plan is no pitching coach can simply handwave Morrow’s issues away. The injuries and the ineffectiveness cast serious doubt that Morrow will ever become the high-end starter his stuff teases.

It always seemed like a struggle for Morrow, balancing his stuff and control and finding the right mix of pitches to remain both effective and on the field. Count Morrow among the “peripheral stats don’t line up with results” crowd, the kind of pitcher who might waltz onto the field and produce one of the best starts ever (ever!) always struggled to prevent runs.

After failing to rack up innings consummate with a front end starter, Morrow entered 2012 determined to be a more efficient pitcher…to mixed results. His bread-and-butter strikeouts dried up and his walk rate marginally improved. He achieved the efficiency he sought. increasing his ground ball rate while posting a career low in-play average and his best strand rate as a starter. The chicken and the egg, together again.

Can he replicate the results of that year (career best ERA & RA9) without the benefit of such…good fortune? Seems likely that some team pays for the privilege of finding out for themselves.

Brandon Morrow as high-leverage bullpen dynamo

For the next two years or so, expect to hear the words “they think he could be their Wade Davis” approximately 60 times. Hard throwing starter who never figured it out? Obviously he has a 3 Win season right up his sleeve. Who doesn’t?

The Blue Jays used him in relief to finish out his stint in Toronto, mopping up after he returned from a long layoff due to a radial nerve entrapment. Morrow began his big league career as a closer and he sports a typical “times through the order” splits, so perhaps the bullpen is the best place for him.

As a reliever, Morrow was able to air out his fastball, averaging more than 97 mph in his seven game cameo. The results were mixed but Morrow, with a trimmed down repertoire, at least showed flashes of the huge arm teams are sure to dream on.

That said…if ever there was an easy Davis replicon laying around, it’s probably Brandon Morrow, right? Strip away some of the dead weight, repertoire-wise, while monitoring his workload and allowing him to go after the 3-5 batters set before him?

It would still require a lot of work to keep him both on the field and in the strike zone at the same time. But the strikeout stuff remains and the high-end velocity is always enticing. Like Davis, Morrow dabbled with a host of offspeed offerings. Perhaps a clear mission and cleaned up mechanics would pave the way to shutdown reliever greatness. If only it was so simple.

Brandon Morrow as a mortal middle reliever

This is the part that nobody really wants to consider, the part that makes a bullpen move a gamble in terms of value for your dollar. If Morrow fetches $5MM on the open market but only turns out to be a Jason Frasor clone, is that worth anyone’s time? Consider the following:

Name	K%	BB%	K-BB%	GB%	HR/FB	FIP-	xFIP-
Jason Frasor	24.1 %	10.1 %	13.9 %	41.5 %	10.1 %	90	94
Brandon Morrow	22.9 %	8.7 %	14.2 %	39.0 %	10.5 %	94	96

Fly ball pitchers with iffy command don’t make for the most successful relievers, you might be surprised to learn. It takes a very high strikeout rate to make up for those base runners and the ever-present threat of a long ball.

“But as a reliever, he’s bound to improve! With a refined approach and no concern for turning over a lineup, he’ll be fine!” That’s a fine dream but wishing doesn’t make it so. Just ask his former teammate and current free agent Dustin McGowan, who transitioned from a not-great starter to a not-bad reliever in 2014. All the stuff in the world won’t bail you out if you constantly miss spots and fall behind in the count.

Could Morrow, under the tutelage of a noted salvation artist like Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage or The Don, Don Cooper in Chicago, flourish and discover the potential oozing from his right arm? Unless those coaches are also experts in physiology, I’m dubious.

Brandon Morrow as Brandon Morrow

It is entirely possible that the new Brandon Morrow ends up just like the old Brandon Morrow – injury-prone with spurts of brilliance between maddeningly poor results. The great reliever model seems likely until we recall how poor Morrow’s been at holding runners on base for his career.

If Francisco Liriano the desired outcome for Morrow? Does he have the ground ball ability up his sleeve? It seems as though there are more questions surrounding Morrow than answers. Until he can prove himself capable of navigating a seven month season in one piece, the onus of proof remains squarely on his talented but temperamental shoulders.