What the Season Will Look Like: Final Crowdsource Results

Last week, for the seventh and final time, I asked readers how they thought the season would go. While we don’t know for sure how many games will actually be played this year or when the season will end, should the two sides settle on health and safety protocols, the current plan is to play 60 games and have a standard postseason that concludes at the end of October. In addition to looking at the last round of results, we’ll take a look at how the reported season compares to the results over time.

First, this is how readers answered regarding whether there would be a season (voting closed Monday morning):

Here’s how the responses have gone since late-March:

For the first five surveys, two out of every three readers believed there would be a 2020 season, but the negotiations over the last month turned it into a 50/50 proposition. While it certainly seems that we will get a season, there’s still a month to go before a potential Opening Day.

As for length of the season:

While 76-100 was the top answer for most of the polls, as the possible schedule shrank and each side’s proposals were revealed, 51-75 seemed like the most likely result:

As time passed, and mid-June rolled around without a second spring training having started, an Opening Day anytime before July became impossible:

The optimism of a start in June or maybe July back when these polls started quickly shifted to July or never when the calendar hit May. The nearly 10% August received in the last round was the most for any month not June or July:

Perceptions on games at spring training sites have also shifted significantly over time. In the last round, an overwhelming majority assumed no regular season games in spring homes and that the next spring training won’t even be played there:

Here’s how opinions have moved since the end of March:

I wish I had phrased the question on games without fans differently to better separate the people who believed there would be no season from those who believed there would be a season but that it would be played without fans in attendance, though we can make some assumptions in looking at differences between the regular season games number and the answers below:

It does look like there is a small group who believes there will be some games with fans this season. Even from the very start in late March, a majority of responses indicated that voters believed there would be games without fans in the 2020 season:

With MLB’s increased emphasis on having the postseason follow a normal schedule, most people believe the playoffs will end in October or early November:

This is a departure, as late-November was the leader in most of the earlier polls:

Also changing significantly over time was the potential structure for the playoffs. Here’s the last batch of responses:

And this is what the answers have looked like over time:

Unless a deal is reached in the next month that specifically alters the playoffs, it looks like the early results are more likely to end up being correct than those over the last month.

I’m not sure any broad conclusions can be reached regarding these results, but they do show how much opinions can shift in just a short amount of time based on new information. We might one day look over these last three months as one period, with consistent optimism and opinions throughout, but the results show how much things can change on a bi-weekly basis. Thanks to everyone who participated. Hopefully we never have to do this again.