When Will the Cubs Roar Again?
Just as the Joey Gallo trade ended an era of Rangers baseball, the Cubs’ flurry of moves at this year’s trade deadline closed the door on Chicago’s championship core. While Kyle Hendricks, Willson Contreras, and Jason Heyward still remain from the 2016 team, the trades of Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo send things out with an exclamation point rather than the Texas comma. Five games below .500 and with a much weakened roster, we now project Chicago to finish 74-88; the last time the franchise finished with a worse record was 2014.
In a very real way, the 2010s Cubs did accomplish one very important feat: they won a championship. While I don’t subscribe to the notion that a great run for a team must involve a title, I also have not yet been placed in the role of some brutal autarch who determines how the history books are written. The Cubs won the World Series, and the Rangers did not, and both teams will be remembered differently as a result.
Still, the way it ended leaves a curious dissatisfaction about the Cubs. The dizzying heights of 2016 faded quickly, and the subsequent single NLCS appearance and pair of wild card losses were not the stuff of legend. The sudden turning-off of the cash spigot didn’t help, either; after spending $217 million in free agency after the 2017 season, Chicago has spent a total of $21 million in the offseasons since, or roughly half what the Rays have paid out in that span. (The mid-June 2019 signing of Craig Kimbrel to a three-year, $43 million contract is one of the lone splurges.) In the end, the farm system and those low-key signings couldn’t make up for the attrition elsewhere, and the Cubs’ domination of the NL Central was a brief affair.
Before last winter, team president Jed Hoyer talked about the Cubs going into a retooling phase rather than a full teardown, which left me skeptical. But Chicago still has some advantages that suggest a return to playoff relevance might not be that far away.
Despite recent trades, the cupboard hasn’t been emptied to the same degree as the mid-2010s Orioles or late-2000s Astros. This roster should and will win fewer games, but it’s not a 100-loss team in terms of talent. To get a baseline expectation of where the 2022 Cubs lie, I ran the ZiPS projections for their lineup based on who they have in-house.
| Hitter | PA | WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Ian Happ | 600 | 2.0 |
| Jason Heyward | 600 | 1.8 |
| Nico Hoerner | 500 | 2.3 |
| Rafael Ortega | 500 | 1.1 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 500 | 1.1 |
| David Bote | 500 | 0.9 |
| Nick Madrigal | 450 | 2.4 |
| Willson Contreras | 450 | 2.3 |
| Sergio Alcántara | 200 | -0.1 |
| P.J. Higgins | 150 | 0.2 |
| Johneshwy Fargas | 100 | 0.0 |
| Frank Schwindel | 100 | 0.0 |
| Greg Deichmann | 100 | 0.0 |
| Pitcher | IP | WAR |
| Kyle Hendricks | 180 | 2.6 |
| Adbert Alzolay | 150 | 1.0 |
| Alec Mills | 120 | 1.1 |
| Justin Steele | 110 | 1.2 |
| Keegan Thompson | 100 | 0.6 |
| Kohl Stewart | 80 | 0.3 |
| Codi Heuer | 60 | 0.8 |
| Manuel Rodriguez | 60 | 0.0 |
| Dillon Maples | 50 | 0.4 |
| Rowan Wick | 50 | 0.3 |
| Kyle Ryan | 50 | 0.3 |
| Rex Brothers | 50 | 0.3 |
| Cory Abbott | 40 | 0.2 |
| Brailyn Márquez | 40 | 0.1 |
| Tommy Nance | 40 | 0.1 |
| Jake Jewell | 40 | -0.1 |
| Jonathan Holder | 30 | 0.1 |
That’s about a 71-win team on average, and while that’s not good by any stretch of the imagination, it’s not a hopeless situation. Remember, this assumes that nobody unsigned will returned and the Cubs will do nothing. And when I say nothing and nobody, I mean it literally: no one-year bargain deals, no minor league invitations, nothing. The average team will be in the mid-70s in this regard.
Repeating this exercise for the rest of baseball, the Cubs really don’t look quite as awful as it feels right now.
| Team | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 84 | 78 | — | .519 | 56.6% | 1.6% | 58.3% | 3.7% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 79 | 83 | 5 | .488 | 20.7% | 2.0% | 22.7% | 1.2% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 76 | 86 | 8 | .469 | 9.8% | 0.9% | 10.7% | 0.5% |
| Chicago Cubs | 75 | 87 | 9 | .463 | 7.1% | 0.7% | 7.9% | 0.4% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 74 | 88 | 10 | .457 | 5.7% | 0.6% | 6.2% | 0.3% |
The Pirates look good on this measure simply because they’re not losing much in free agency, and the Cardinals have to replace half a pitching rotation or so. Think of this as projecting the 2022 standings if every team had an “average” offseason; when Pittsburgh add less 2022 performance than practically every team in baseball, you’ll see the actual projections sink, likely into the high-60s.
The thing about the Cubs is there’s no indication that they’re suddenly going to start spending like the Pirates. Contreras and Happ are the two key contributors who are arbitration-eligible, and even assuming they combine to make $20 million in 2022, most of the rest of the roster without guaranteed deals is on pre-salary arbitration contracts. The trio of arbitration-eligible relievers (Ryan, Holder, Brothers) isn’t going to be expensive, either. Depending on your assumptions, with player benefits, that 71-win team above has a luxury tax number of somewhere around $90 million.
The Cubs have given little indication that they’re going to scrape against the luxury tax ceiling anytime soon, but they ought to spend more than that figure. I would expect them to add an outfielder, a first baseman, and at least two starting pitchers in free agency, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them add $50 million or so and end up with a luxury tax number around $140–$150 million. It’s unlikely that they’re going to pay $7.5 million for each of those wins either; there are definite signs that outside of bullpens, nobody pays that amount for the first expected win on a contract.
So, what’s my projection of a projection? I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the Cubs enter 2022 as an 81-win team. The division helps them in this regard; the Brewers are a good team but not likely as good as their 2021 record, and there’s little indication that anybody else has an interest in going on a spending spree. The Cardinals are probably the closest, but like the Phillies last season, they have to make up their free-agent losses before improving on this year’s squad. Entering the season as a .500 team in the NL Central leaves you in the divisional race.
Will the 2022 Cubs be good? Probably not. But they may be better than you think and actually playing meaningful games a year from now.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
This is a really interesting look. Does this include EVERYONE in house for each team? Or literally just the 40 Man roster? For instance do the Cubs get credit for likely Brennen Davis contributions in this scenario?
Everyone.
I didn’t list everyone with under 100 PA here. I was perhaps too conservative with pushing him; I was trying to err on the side of not being greedy.
They sure act like it’s bare.
Are you sure they’re not simply trying to act like they’re all grown up? Like it’s…well…BEAR?
I don’t know what ZiPs is seeing here but that roster doesn’t look good at all. Hoerner, Madrigal, Happ, Hendricks, and Contreras are the only players who could start for a decent team, and Hoerner will need to find a new position and Madrigal won’t have played in a while. ZiPs still can’t believe Heyward is this bad but I do, and he’ll be blocking any significant addition in right field. They are missing two entire spots in a rotation (with Alzolay and Mills profiling as fifth starters), the rotation depth will be nonexistent even if they find two starters, and their bullpen isn’t anything to write home about either. And if they can’t or decide they don’t want to sign Contreras to an extension he’s probably going to some catcher-needy team. The upside is limited for Hendricks too, because if he starts pitching well next year he’s gone.
I like Deichmann as an immediate platoon option in left a bit more than this but otherwise this is real dark. It’s better than the Pirates but probably not by much. With that, I think it’s real optimistic to think that the Cubs are suddenly going to turn on the money spigots now that their window has passed. They’re probably giving Alfonso Rivas the first base job, signing another platoon option for the outfield so they’re not exposing Deichmann and Heyward, hoping that either Wisdom works out or Morel can take the job if he doesn’t, and taking a shot on some guys who need a bounce back year like Dylan Bundy.
When is 2024 again? Is it soon?
To me the question is what the long term strategy is. As you say, they don’t have any impact players due before ~2024, so there’s no organic improvement between now and then. So if they spend $150M a year to contend in a weak division but never be more than the 4th best team in the NL, what does that get them? Maybe that’s enough to keep Wrigley full, add MiL talent at the deadline as appropriate, and be in a position to go from 86 to 94 wins when the cavalry arrives.
But it definitely doesn’t set them up to be an elite team unless they get a little lucky with their prospects. I’m not advocating for tanking—certainly not for a team with revenues like the Cubs—but I’m just not sure how you get from here to having a team with the kind of talent they had in ’16.
Maybe not “no” impact players but you probably don’t see Brennen Davis or Miguel Amaya until later in 2022 or at some point in 2023. Those are two of their top 10 prospects. Of the remaining 8 of their top 10 prospects, seven have ETAs listed on Eric’s board of being 2024 or 2025 and the last one is a probable reliever who hasn’t pitched at all this year due to injury. Morel might be ready by the middle of next year but Roederer and Vizcaino are the next two prospects up and they’re more on the Davis or Amaya cycle.
Between that and Cubs’ ownership telegraphing that they are really, really mad that they didn’t make money in 2021, I wouldn’t expect them to show much interest in anyone until after the 2022 season, when Gallo, Buxton, Berrios, Eflin, and Edwin Diaz could be free agents. And maybe not until 2023 when the free agent class might include Rafael Devers, Urias, Giolito, Flaherty, and (if you can convince him to leave the west coast) Ohtani.
Brennen Davis will be an impact player in 2023. Not so sure on Amaya. Cubs will probably be players on Castellanos and a couple pitchers and I expect them to extend Contreras. I see no need to re-sign Baez, Bryant will cost too much and maybe 50/50 on Rizzo. They may actually be willing to over pay for Rizzo. I expect Hoerner/Madrigal to man the Middle IF–so no signings of Story or Correa in my opinion. They’ll need a decent lefty bat from somewhere though (Deichmann?). Unless Happ straightens out immediately, i don’t see him being part of the re-tool.
It’s all guesswork though. The CBA problems may come at a perfect time for the Cubs.
“Brennen Davis will be an impact player in 2023.”
Is that a fact?
Yup. Come see me in a year and a half amigo.
Amaya has been hurt much of this year, and I think of him more as a defensive catcher and back up than a full time regular, potential all-star like Contreras. If Contreras is not extended, then I expect him to be traded before the season (when a catcher likely has more value). Hendricks has two seasons left on current contract after this year, and again, if not extended, should be traded this off-season when he will have maximum value, while really what is the point of being the best starter on a bad team. And where are those WAR values for Happ & Heyward coming from?
Can Hoerner, whose only healthy season was the shortened 2020 (when he was terrible) can be expected to get 500 plate appearances?
The farm system is probably in better shape & deeper than 2011 (although Jed & Theo neglect to mention that Baez, Contreras, Cashner who was traded for Rizzo, and D.J. LaMahieu were all in the 2011 farm system). But the starting line-up looks little like the 1962-63 Mets. I don’t see much motivation to spend on free agents with the new CBA & possible strike or lockout for much of 2022 is in the wind. Maybe after 2023 when owners feel some urgency about getting people in the ball park, visiting & eating in their other properties around the ball park, and watching the team on their RW Marquee Network.
Yeah, not literally none, but it’s not as if anyone is guaranteed to be an impact player in their first season or two—look at Ke’Bryan Hayes or even Vladito. So even if all goes well with Davis, you can’t pencil him in as a 4-win guy for ’23. If everyone were on his timeline, then you can guess/hope that someone will have an impact right away, which is why I think ’24 is a reasonable target, with the best prospect established and a half dozen other guys arriving or also established.
Mind, that’s only a 2 year gap, and of course one of those seasons may be lost to a lockout. But the worry is that there’s not enough baseline talent for the youngsters to add to, and that payroll will be too high to add as they did at the start of the last cycle. Using year-end 40-man numbers, payroll went from $93M in ’14 to $133M in ’15 to $182M in ’16—basically doubled in 2 years! If they need to spend $150M to have an 85-win team in ’23, augmented by (say) 8 wins from prospects, they still need to add a bunch of payroll to really play with the big boys, and I’m not sure they will.
Sad, I really appreciate your commentary and depth of knowledge. Just interested in your profile. Can you summarize how you know as much as you do, maybe a little about how you came to have baseball as a passion. Your comments always seem to add some depth to the various articles. Thanks for that.
Thanks for the kind words but I am learning too. I think I’ll leave it at that. Most of my insider-y types of information is very out of date now, anyway.
EDIT: Part of this lack of detail is because I comment under a pseudonym so I don’t have to constantly police what I write, and part of it is because it is really hard to describe what I do and my background. So even if I wanted to describe it, I don’t think I could.
look, its not in my nature to be mysterious. but i cant talk about it. and i cant talk about why.
Hilarious!
Are you Banksey or DB Cooper?
lol no, not unless DB Cooper or Banksy spend/spent their lives poring over probability distributions and hoping models converge.
Spent? Only DB Cooper or Banksy would use the past tense.
Doesn’t everyone comment under a pseudonym?
I mean, you listed half their position players and one starter as decent and Dan said they’d need to add two starting pitchers to get to that .500 mark. That’s not asking a whole helluva lot.
And how dare you compare it to the darkness of my Pirates?! Heh, jest aside, I think Chicago seems to have the…supplementary pieces of a contending team in place. Now is the hard part: find the big horses.
The Pirates do have one player who is better than anyone on the Cubs’ roster (Bryan Reynolds is not this good but he can regress a long way and still be better than these guys!), two decent position players (Hayes, Stallings), and a lot of interesting pitching depth. Its talent is distributed differently but I’m not sure the team with 4 decent position players, one decent starter, and holes all over the rotation is head and shoulders ahead of the team with one very good position players, two decent position players, and a whole bunch of #4 and #5 starters.
They just traded 4 away over the last nine months: Darvish, Rizzo, Baez, and
Bryant.
Do you really think Patrick Wisdom doesn’t deserve to be a starter next year? At this point, he certainly deserves first shot at the starting 3B job if nothing else, although we’ll see how he plays over the next 2 months.
He’s outperforming his xwOBA by 50 points so while he deserves a shot he’s probably a four-corners bench bat on a good team. You’ve got to have awesome other skills (like Mike Zunino’s defense, or Joey Gallo’s ridiculous walk rate) to strike out more than a third of the time and still play every day over a longer period of time.
Not for another 103 years. Nice one championship dynasty tho, Scrubby fans
My understanding is that the cubs don’t really roar, anyway. I think they make snuffling and whining anxiety noises until they become adults, and then instead of roaring they make grumbling and huffing anxiety noises. Bears mostly just want to eat a lot without working hard, sleep, and be left alone. No need to communicate if nobody else is around.
As someone who works so that I can sleep, eat, and be left alone, sounds like a pretty solid life.
Some bears are a bit more anxious than others, I think black bears more so than grizzlies? But I think pretty much all bears make rumbling noises to say “you are way too close to me, back up” and that’s their standard response to everyone and everything that is too much work to eat.
Bears are every gluttonous introvert’s spirit animal.
Obligatory plug for the Katmai bear cam.
https://explore.org/livecams/brown-bears/brown-bear-salmon-cam-brooks-falls
That’s pretty cool. Katmai is also the home of Fat Bear Week, which is awesome.
So my spirit animal is a bear!
“I think they make snuffling and whining anxiety noises until they become adults, and then instead of roaring they make grumbling and huffing anxiety noises.”
So bears, they are just like us…
“Bears mostly just want to eat a lot without working hard, sleep, and be left alone.”
A lot like us….
I think this is about right, as an optimistic Cubs fan.
I can see them potentially punting on 2022, signing some filler/flippable free agents this offseason (all assuming no work stoppage, etc), and hoping to come out around the 75-81 win mark in 2022. This puts them in a pretty good spot for 2023.
I also could see potentially signing one of the young good shortstops (Correa or Seager) this offseason in the hopes that it will be a quick retool. I’d personally be interested in seeing if Nico could kick out to center, with the aforementioned free agent shortstop and Madrigal rounding out the middle. That pushes Happ to left, which is where I think he should be (this all assumes that Happ finally figures it out).
The issue is really going to be the starting pitching. They’ve seemingly gotten much better very quickly at developing arms for the ‘pen, with several relievers coming up through the system, but the current rotation is… not good. They’re really banking on some recent additions to the farm to contribute in a meaningful way very quickly (Kilian and Wicks come to mind), but that’s super aggressive.
I think there’s basically a 0% chance the Cubs sign a top shortstop. If they’re going to be uncompetitive for at least the next couple years, why give out a massive long term deal? It would be odd to let all that talent go just to sign a SS this offseason. Just in the past calendar year, they lost Darvish, Rizzo, Bryant, Pederson, Baez, etc. That’s a ton of talent. Like 13 WAR. They’re going to be terrible next year.
Key words: “long term deal.” They’d sign the guy this offseason knowing he’d still be there and at least still on the tail end of his prime once they’re good again. In the meantime, it gives the fans a superstar to cheer for even if the team itself is mediocre or worse. It’s a strategy that has worked elsewhere
The Ricketts were not willing to give Bryant, Baez, or Rizzo a market rate contract, so why do you think they will give Correa or Seeger a contract between $200 to 250 million dollars over the next 7 years? Ricketts wants a payroll under $100 million dollars going forward or less. Think it of Tom’s own little mental salary cap. He looks at Milwaukee competing at under $100 million dollars, as well as Tampa & Oakland and thinks, “That could be us, but with twice the revenue! Profit.”
We don’t know how good the Cubs’ extension offers were save for one they offered Baez 2 years ago.
Even if they don’t sign a superstar, the Cubs are certainly *not* dropping their payroll below $100M. I can guarantee you that much.
I don’t really know how you can say that. They’ve only got about $70M committed next year. They’ll need a couple of starters but otherwise they have someone to play every position except a right-handed CF like Marisnick who can cover CF when Happ slides to a corner, a backup catcher, and maybe first base if they don’t want to turn over the job to Rivas. Do all those things and it probably takes you to $90M-$110M, less if you’re cheap and more if you want to spend more.
This is crazy to me. The Cubs franchise worth about 3 billion, and their ownership at least 3 times that amount. Under 0 circumstances should the Chicago Cubs go into a season 100 million under the tax line looking to “punt.” Their fan base should find that unacceptable.
They have about 20 similar grade middling prospects in the farm system. They can’t all take the same field in 3 years. Trade some of them to pick up a few veterans, make some free agent signings and go into 2022.
If the dodgers and Yankees can do it year after year, a “punt” year should never be acceptable to Cubs fans.
I don’t know what that means, “The fan base will find that unacceptable”? The history of the Cubs’ fan base, at least a majority of them, since the 1970s has been to find mediocrity or worse to be highly acceptable (although we stop showing up & watching in September). Ricketts sold his family on buying the team on the constancy of the Cub fan during losing seasons. Now, he may have changed that by jacking the ticket prices up like he has and putting the Cubs on pay TV & no more free TV, but we will have to wait and see. I certainly think they are going to try the experiment in 2022 when revenues may be awful anyway due to a combination of a 3rd year of pandemic & a strike.
From my perspective, this is a “wait and see” approach to my Cub fandom. The claim made by both Jed Hoyer and Tom Ricketts was the same-“this won’t be a long rebuild” and “not like 2012-2014”. That gives them a very small window to suck at baseball. For some, this could be 2 months. For others, it may be another season. The proof in either case will be what they sign this offseason. Honestly, if they’re not spending at least a $140-150M in 2022 there will be some gnashing of teeth from the fan base…me included. You don’t get to cry poor, charge high prices for tickets and beer and then say “Wait until 2025!”
Additionally, the Cubs need to keep eyes on their new Marquee TV network and they need to sell jerseys in their Cub store. A foolish business model would be to trade everyone’s favorite players only to sign just enough players to be “competitive”. The Cubs made a brave and correct decision by trading away solid and popular players to reset their farm system and clear money for 2022. However, I would be cautious that some in this fan base listened closely when they were told “sustained success” and “expecting to win” won’t be a little disappointed when they’re being sold “it won’t be that bad in 2022”.
While the old line of “Cub fans show up regardless” is still true, I do think a touch of cynicism will come to the fan base as many could be less inclined to buy the merchandise of a 81+ losing team.
Dan don’t you think they are going to sell Contreras and Hendricks this offseason? Or 350 days from now when the Cubs are in the middle of your projected 81 win season? I asked Jay the same on Twitter and he said something about Ricketts fam stripping the roster for like salvage metal, like thieves at a construction site.
I don’t see any way we trade Hendricks. A Contreras trade is more likely, but I have a feeling we keep him as well.
I mean, as a cubs fan I hope so but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Rotation is too thin to trade Hendricks IMO. I don’t think a complete rebuild is called for, and he provides a solid anchor. They probably don’t contend* in ’22 or ’23 with him, but they absolutely won’t without him. If things don’t come together but he’s still effective, he’d net something interesting at the ’23 deadline.
*or “contend”, which I think they’ll want to do to keep the stands full and the fans grumbly rather than furious.
Hendriks’current contract only goes through 2023. If they don’t extend him another 3 years, then they should trade him for his maximum value, which will be this off-season. Same for Contreraas, e.g., he should be extended or traded. Heywards albatross contract ends after 2023. You know how much contract obligations the Cubs have for the 2024 season right now? David Bote’s $5.5 million dollars. But remember, what Tom Ricketts said after the 2018 season “There is no more money!” Also, Tom thinks Tampa Bay is the model franchise & wants to operate the same way. I think the payroll is going to be under $100 million in 2022, and may be under $80 million & will stay that way through 2025.
Hence, I am not too optimistic about the extensions of Contreras & Hendricks. I expect the Ricketts, with their ticket prices and revenue streams from MLB, can make a lot of money even with attendance at 2/3rds or even 1/2 of recent peaks with their ticket & concession prices at that payroll level. The bigger problem maybe for the Ricketts is that the Marquee Network might become invisible on cable & satellite TV with no one watching or paying extra for it.
Exactly. The lesson learned from the just traded core should be extend or trade early. Don’t trade them for scraps at the last minute and all at the same time.
If anything Bryant, Rizzo and Baez seeing one of their buddies get traded would’ve made them pay a little more attention at the negotiating table.
The bullpen could be in the top tier in terms of both quality and depth, allowing their “5th starter” types like Alzolay, Mills and Steele to play up. But relying on that approach certainly caps the Cubs’ potential ceiling. Without tanking, per se, the wiser strategy is probably to take as many low-cost flyers as the 40-man allows in 2022 and start splurging again the following year.
Ergo, I’d bet heavily on a sub-81 win projection.
I suppose an exception could be made this offseason for a long-term high-WAR deal, like 8 years for Corey Seager. Risky, but it might be riskier to wait.
Even though the front office wasn’t happy about the stars leaving I think Nick, Hoerner, Hendricks, Ed Howard, Brennan, is a great young Core to start a Half/Rebuild upon. Yes they need to desperately work on pitching development and maybe use on opener strategy for year or two while build and sign players. I watch Eugene Emeralds a bit and personally they need to get better development from them, coaching, and analytics. I’ve seen worse starts for rebuilds
Eugene Emeralds no longer have anything to do with the cubs or affiliated baseball.FYI.
If they spend money on a few decent free agents they are going to be stuck in the middle of the NL central for the next 5-6 years. They don’t have enough impact players on the farm and even two star free agents won’t be enough to compete but will be enough to ensure they don’t get the high draft picks they need.
In other words: purgatory.
When was the last time the dodgers drafted in the top half of the league? Or the Yankees? If they can’t compete over the next 5 years without a couple top 10 picks then Hoyer isn’t a very good GM
You’re really comparing the Dodgers organization (and Friedman) to the Cubs?
This sounds like the 2021 Phillies if they sign a couple high end FA or the 2021 Mariners if they don’t. I guess that’s almost interesting if things go really well.
They could be okayish in a year or two, but have they really gotten enough prospect value from trading their stars to be an actual playoff team in the nearish future?
Yes. Considering they were all gonna be gone in 2 months . They got far more return than 3 comp picks would have netted.
I expect the Cubs to makes some moves in the second-tier of free agency (the Castellanos-Belt-Pham range) just to put a competitive product on the field. They do still own a cable channel that launched last year (great timing!) and one assumes they care about television ratings (which probably dropped off a cliff right around August 1st).
This is the second comment I’ve seen positioning Castellanos as a “reasonable” alternative to the Seager / Correa type of stars. You know that Castellanos is still going to ask for a deal of $100M or more, right? He’s definitely aiming for JD Martinez as a comp. I can’t think of anyone who would actually give it to him but he’s four years younger than Pham and Belt and has had a far better season than both, so we’re talking about a four or five year deal.
Castellanos is somebody who’s production I could see completely tanking after he signs a long term deal. I’d be hesitant to give him anything without a quick opt out.
(It’s something about his hair. It just screams “I’m going to mail it in once I get paid.”
What would the projection be if they had extended Bryant, Baez and Rizzo? (And kept Yu Darvish and Victor Caratini? Schwarber, for that matter … ) (For that matter, resigning Castellanos and letting Heyward go … ) In other words, there is really no way to justify this.
And kept that preacher away from Ben Zobrist’s wife.
As a Brewers fan I am curious as to why the writer is so dismissive of their chances. They are on pace to win well over 90 games this season and will be returning most of the roster. They are not an old team and assuming they don’t win a championship this year should be motivated to return to the playoffs in 2022. They also have some talent in the minors. I can’t comment on the Cubs chances, but pulling the Brewers down to the level of any rebuilding team doesn’t make sense.
Well, I do wonder if their top 3 starters who all broke out at once this season will continue to remain this good or if it was just a career year for one or more of them.
I think Burnes was briefly hurt but overall they’ve had remarkable health from Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta. That seems unlikely to hold. I also think that the projections probably are underrating Adames, whose projection is being held down by his vision problems with the Rays.
Burnes went on the IL briefly for an undisclosed reason which everyone assumes meant a positive covid test. Hader and Houser and Gustave and Lauer and Cousins and Strickland have also all gone on the IL for covid tests. That adds up, but it’s true that the only major injury to the pitching corps has been Axford.
Agree with everything but the talent in the minors part. This just isn’t true.
Is there anyone on the roster or in the minors who could even dream of being a 4 WAR player? Brennen Davis, OK … and that’s it. I don’t know, I just do not see how a team without a single star player, forget about a superstar, is going to be competing to be .500 any time soon without spending a ton in free agency. 71 wins next year? I’ll take the under.
Exactly. No stars, I mean there are losing teams right now with stars (Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies). The interesting thing will be young starters & bullpen pitchers this year & in 2022. I am afraid there will be good days and bad, but they are going to struggle along with one of the worst offenses in baseball for the remainder of this season and next season.
Well, the Cardinals won the division in 2019 when their only All-Star was a courtesy pick. Granted, Flaherty and Goldschmist were star players in the second half, but that was still only about half the season for each of them. So it’s possible, very unlikely, but still possible.
While I understand the narrative, I really do not think that this iteration of the Cubs should be considered disappointing. If I am nor mistaken, they made the playoffs 5 out of 6 years, won about as many playoff series as they lost, and got a WS title out of it. Really, aside from a few outliers like the Giants a few years back and the Yanks at the turn of the century, who did dramatically better getting to and succeeding in the post-season? I can name a number of teams that did worse…
The disappointment is really that they had such a solid core of players and play in a very large market and couldn’t keep the team together.
I know money doesn’t mean everything in baseball, but it means a lot. And this team should be positioned well to be a perpetual contender like the Red Sox, Yankees, or Dodgers basically are at this point. Those teams can and do have singular bad years dispersed randomly but it’s a pretty good bet to pencil them into the playoffs on any given year without looking at their roster at all.
It’s weird that a Baseball team that has access to the third largest market, is so old and has fans everywhere due to WGN showing games forever couldn’t keep its core players from a WS run. It’s normal that the Royals lost all of it’s players, it’s understandable for a team like Minnesota to rebuild. But the Cubs should be the Dodgers or Yankees (perhaps lite but far more similar than not) IMO.
Ricketts are awful owners, in that their greed gets in the way, they will do what the Tribune did, make money and not care what kind of product they put on the field, because the fans will still show up to the bleachers. Once the fans stopped showing up, the Tribune sold. Mark Cuban would have been the best owner for the team for sustained long term success.
Yes, and yes. Also, they live very much in the bubble of the super rich (lots leeches telling them that they are brilliant and heroes out of an Ayn Rand novel).
The Cubs did keep the core team together.
From 2016 to 2020~2021.
That was always the realistic window.
If you look at the 2016 team,
Heyward and Contreras are still there.
Rizzo, Bryant and Baez were very recently Cubs.
Zobrist retired and Russell… well.
Fowler is gone, but Happ has been better.
Schwarber’s insane stretch makes it look bad but he was also a Cub last year as well.
On the pitching side,
they kept Lester and Hendriks.
Hammel and Arrieta signed elsewhere and was not good with Hammel retired now along with Lackey.
To be more specific, I think that the problem was not that they did not extend this core of players (Rizzo is on the decline and Bryant and Baez are pretty much at their peak and are merely very good players rather than foundational stars) but that they failed to develop anybody new. Guys like Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber never emerged as stars, the Hayward signing was bad, and Gleyber Torres is on the Yankees.
That said, though, I think that we should be more impressed by how the few teams that have been able to be perennial contenders have been able to keep it up (which is VERTY difficult) rather than ding the Cubs for not being in that group…
Why would you want to keep the core together? Have you missed the last 3 years?
The Cubs lost their player development edge during their Championship window. And, this was largely due to turn over in the organization and also, to some extent, they were late to the pitch and hitting labs that should have been essential for their continued growth.
In addition, I think they used the top of their farm system like trading market. So, eventually, they had nothing left in their farm system and the feeling that no one was organizing the player development side of the club. It’s almost like the developmental wheels fell off the cart around 2017.
These two trades defined the lanes that the Cubs chose to take.
In 2016, they dealt Torres to the Yankees for Chapman. It felt like the right move because 1. they lacked that shut down closer and 2. Everyone felt that Torres was expendable because Baez and Addison Russell would be the middle infield combination for the entire window. Then…well, Addison Russell-major prick.
In 2017, they dealt Jimenez and Cease to get Quintana. The thought was Schwarber was at least Eloy until 2020 and Cease wouldn’t help the Cubs during the next two seasons at Wrigley. Schwarber had become something of a cult hero in Wrigley and he felt permanent. I accepted the logic at the time because while Eloy was mashing baseballs in Iowa, there was a sense that the Cubs couldn’t afford having an outfield of Schwarber+Heyward+Jimenez. (side note: but the Cubs became fine with a Schwarber, Heyward, Castellanos OF which could have been the same thing). And Dylan Cease was still 3 seasons away from the majors. This ended up being super short sighted because the Cubs didn’t resign Schwarber last off-season and Quintana is in Anaheim doing things.
This was the trade deadline climate then…which feels so foreign to today’s climate. In 2016, the Cubs saw their window and took a firm hold of it. You cannot fault them for their thinking because it felt so tantalizingly close that it coudn’t have been trusted to Hector Rondon. The 2017 trade felt like a reach…and it was. Still, Quintana had a strong second half of 2017 and was pivotal in making the NLCS. But I firmly believe these two moves was a conscious choice by Theo to lay a claim to this generation of Cubs. I think knowing he wasn’t going to be around past 2020 (or 2021) directly affected his decision making.
Now here’s Jed Hoyer-tasked as part magician and part janitor in Wrigleyville.
The big criticism of them is that they turned off the money spigots after Darvish. They eventually signed Kimbrel but he was so screwed up from signing mid-season that he wasn’t an upgrade.
Epstein defended this inaction, saying they had spent plenty of money and there were no excuses but you only get a finite amount of time with a core in their prime, and by 2019 it became clear they were just going to ride that team, trying to get by without any meaningful additions until time ran out. They just kind of punted on making themselves serious contenders in 2019 and 2020.
Well, they had pretty much maxed out their payroll from previous deals so that they couldn’t splurge in free agency those two years (and of course, you can’t blame them, or most teams, for needing to cut payroll last offseason).
Everyone has those years where their payroll has been stretched thin, and the Cubs still had pretty good teams. It’s just that they were unable to supplement those core stars with very many good cheap rookies and other pre-arb players like most teams need to do at times they can’t dip very deeply into free agency.
I wouldn’t use the term disappointing to describe the group. In both 2018 and 2019, they held divisional leads into September and, had the second best record in the NL in 2018 and lost a 5 game lead in the division and in 2019 they had a 7 game losing streak in the middle of September to end their playoff chances.
I would argue that 2018 was one of my favorite summers at Wrigley. That team was fun and I felt a good bet to make the World Series at the beginning of September. They went 2-6 vs. the Brewers in early September and then faded hard from that point. Ended up being one of the worst seasons I can remember as a fan because I thought they were a good group for so much of the season.
I can squint my eyes just a little bit tighter and imagine 5 straight Division titles from 2016-2020. And then some chances in October to have done more.
Alas, that only plays out in my OOTP universe.
I summarize this 2022 line-up as 5 solid role-players, but zero impact bats and zero impact pitchers. With all due respect to Hendricks, does anyone want him matching up with the aces across the league? He’d be a fantastic No. 2 on any team though. Hard to see them competing any time soon without at least 4+ significant additions (external or developed).
With all the money they’ll have available, they very well could sign 4+ significant free agents this offseason.
Yep I remember that time Kershaw wiped the Cubs ,who were forced to trot out chronic overachiever Kyle Hendricks (3.14 career era).
So if the Cubs bump the payroll to $200M where it should be (based on their incredible revenue streams and large market), they could be a high 80s win team with a chance to have some things go right an win a weak Central division.
Do cubs roar? I know bears do.
When you consider the Dodgers have about 3 guys on their 2021 roster that were on the team that faced the Cubs in the 16 NLCS, it really brings into focus the epic failure Theo Epstein was as their GM since the World Series title. I’ll give ownership an assist also
If you have a projection system that pegs Jason Heyward as a 2 WAR player in 2022, I’d be thinking about what went wrong. Heyward hasn’t posted above a 2 WAR season in 6 years, has really only matched the 2 WAR per 600 twice in 6 years. Last year he vastly exceeded it, albeit only over 180 PA. And whatever he showed last year, should be nullified and then some by batting 40% below league average in almost 300 PA this year.
Heyward would almost have to double his production to be a 2 WAR/600PA player once again. Doable? Sure. Projectactable? Not any projection I’d trust.
I think the Pirates will spend some this off-season. Call me crazy.
The 2016 Cubs in order of most likely to least likely to be elected to the HOF:
Ben Zobrist, Aroldis Chapman, John Lester, John Lackey, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Joe Nathan, David Ross (Manager), Jose Contreras, Kyle Hendricks, Javier Baez, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Schwarber.
-Zobrist best peak, highest WAR, WS MVP. Very liked, very appreciated by multiple markets. Considered “most underrated in baseball” by many writers for like a decade. Cano blew his chance…twice… which leaves Pedroia, Kinsler and Zobrist as best 2nd basemen of their generation, with none lapping the field. Not likely, but Cano’s drug tests made the path easier.
-Chapman: Hardest thrower ever, will compile a lot of saves, which writers love.
-Lester and Lackey both very unlikely, but almost 50 fWAR is enough to not be embarassments.
-Bryant, Rizzo: barring a career turnound in their 30s, their flame burned brightly, but not very long.
-Nathan will get votes and stay on the ballot for a while. Which means he stands a shot.
-Contreras, Hendricks, Baez, Arrieta, Schwarber have essentially no shot, which is why David Ross’ managerial career ranks ahead of them.
There is no doubt in my mind that the Cubs management has a lot of pressure to quickly rebuild due to a couple of practical factors. The WS could soon be the best team in BB for the immediate future. They would lose a lot of marginal fans and also new younger ones. No one in Chicago would accept mediocrity with the WS dominating over the next 5 years. Furthermore, Ricketts has invested billions in “outside assets” – Wrigley field, real estate around the park and the Marquee network, He desperately needs these new revenue streams to come on board to pay outstanding debt and generate income. The Cubs are not their hobby.
COVID killed the Cubs. The debt overhang is real and cash flow is essential.
what the hell does this have to do with what i posted?
Nothing. First time poster and I don’t know what I am doing. So chill.
Chapman actually has a decent chance at the Hall depending on how the rest of his career goes, whereas Zobrist is very unlikely to ever make it. WAR doesn’t matter when considering relief pitchers.
Bryant is still a star player still in his prime. Why are you implying he’s not?
Bryant was traded for a bag of baseballs at the deadline, while every contender needs a RH bat that can play 5 positions. If the Rays don’t want you, while they bleed off 45+ prospects to anyone who’ll give them a middle reliever in his 30’s, I don’t like your chances future success. Kris Brant was not coveted. He was pretty much a waiver claim. He’ll be 30 years old this offseason, and is currently a nice 3-4 win player. He’s 3rd most likely to be enshrined because there are a lot of good 3rd basemen to play in the last 40 years, and Bryant is about 40th best on that list. If he finishes his career strong and adds another 20 WAR, he’ll go to about 30th best. Kris Bryant has a very slim chance of being a hall of famer.
Of all 2nd baseman who played a single game after 1950, Ben Zobrist ranks 17th in fWAR. (I don’t like comparing modern players to people who were born before the airplane was invented. 1950 is a nice round number.) Zobrist is going to get a lot of votes, and the fact that he reintroduced the super utility player will only help him. People will be wondering if a prospect is “The next Zobrist) for the next decade. I don’t think he makes it, but he’ll spend several years on the ballot.
WAR may not matter for relievers, but public perception does. Chapman has a domestic violence suspension. That will likely exclude him from the MLB Hall of Fame in 2033 or whenever he goes on the list. There’s not a millennialI know who would award a domestic abuser anything, and in 15 years, there’ll be a lot of millennial voters voting for the hall of fame. He’d be a marginal vote, and if you are marginal, your character better be flawless. If he gets to 600 saves, he might get there. But Chapman isn’t half way to 600, and he’s 33 years old.
Ben Zobrist is the likeliest Hall of Famer. Solid peak. WS MVP. Revolutionized a new position (it wasn’t a listed All-Star game position until he went to Chicago), 17th best 2nd baseman of the last 70 years. If Pedroia goes in (which he will), a lot of people will point to Zobrist’s similar, perhards better, overall numbers.
My biggest shock and confusion is ZiPS thinking Heyward still has a 1.8 WAR season left in the tank :O
Fire Dayton Moore!