White Sox Add Two E’s to Their O
The Chicago White Sox have continued their very active offseason, inking DH Edwin Encarnación to a one-year deal worth $12 million with a $1 million signing bonus. The White Sox also have a club option for Encarnación at the same salary for 2021.
There was no Christmas vacation for the White Sox, and Encarnación is just the latest in the team’s series of relatively low-key signings. Reflecting the organization’s desire to be more aggressive in free agency as the team’s rebuild approaches its denouement, Chicago’s been “in” to some degree or another on most of this winter’s top free agents. The crème de la crème signed elsewhere, but the club was able to bring in Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel, and Gio Gonzalez, all representing significant upgrades at crucial positions for very reasonable prices.
Encarnación’s the latest variation on this theme. It’s a tough market for both 1B/DH types and players in their late 30s, and he sits in the center of this particular Venn diagram. It would be difficult to sign Encarnación if you had to pre-commit to playing him at first base for 140 games, and the DH opportunities were thin as most AL contenders already have the position set.
EE’s deal looks similar to Nelson Cruz’s with the Twins, which is not a shock considering the similarity between the players. Cruz was coming off a 133 wRC+ season (Encarnación was at 129 in 2019), a still potent slugger with a limited market. Cruz received a one-year, $14.3 million contract with an option, and the Twins had nothing to complain about when it came to his production last year.
Most importantly for a non-elite signing, Encarnación represents a significant upgrade over the status quo ante. While the best version of the White Sox probably had Eloy Jiménez as the designated hitter, their young slugger has stated publicly that he really doesn’t like DHing and the team has shown little inclination to push that particular issue. In any case, there’s a good argument to make that throwing in the towel on Jiménez as a defensive player without him getting a full chance to improve would limit the team’s upside value from him.
With José Abreu similarly not being pushed to DH, the White Sox were left with a situation in which the role would largely be filled with spare catchers such as Zack Collins, James McCann, or Grandal getting days off from crouching behind the plate. Teams tend to be quite wary about using their catchers as designated hitters, trying to avoid a situation in which the starter gets injured and the only other player on the roster with catching experience is the starting DH. I think this concern is generally overblown — having a pitcher hit a time or two because you lost the DH is hardly the end of the world. But not needing to carry three catchers does address what I think is the bigger issue, which is making sure that Collins gets full-time plate appearances. He should now get those in Triple-A.
Preliminary projections for the White Sox now put the team in the 80-87 win range, based on some assumptions. That’s enough to put the White Sox into a position in which not a lot of things need to go right for them to be serious contenders in the division as well as the wild card race. In the places where the team has players that aren’t yet established in the majors, they have many players of significant upside on the way, with names like Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal, and Dylan Cease ready to contribute in the near future. Even Nomar Mazara, a player who I’ve grown pessimistic about after the last year or so, still theoretically has a high ceiling.
None of this offseason’s additions are all that costly, leaving the White Sox nearly $60 million below the first luxury tax threshold. This means that the team ought to still have room to take another stab at free agents after 2020. Bringing in a name or two from a list that could include Mookie Betts, George Springer, Marcus Semien, James Paxton, Marcus Stroman, Masahiro Tanaka, or Jake Odorizzi (among others) may be a simpler task if the White Sox are coming off a season in which they’re an actual contender rather than simply hoping to be one in the future.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | .240 | .336 | .491 | 391 | 67 | 94 | 14 | 0 | 28 | 81 | 51 | 102 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 1.8 |
| 2021 | .231 | .317 | .456 | 364 | 57 | 84 | 13 | 0 | 23 | 68 | 42 | 88 | 1 | 107 | 0 | 0.9 |
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
I know there is a lot of enthusiasm about the White Sox making an effort to compete, and I know they got some truly abominable results from some players last year, but Encarnacion, Mazara and Abreu are each projected to put up like 1.5 war in 550 plate appearances. They don’t really move the needle all that much when you were 20-25 games behind your competition.
Mazara as a bounceback candidate makes a lot of sense for little investment, but Abreu and EE both seem like very limited upside plays that will take PA away from figuring out what else they’ve got. Dreams of the WS contending for a WC spot or a league title seem dependent on Madrigal and Robert both showing up as Tatis-quality ROY candidates in 2020, which seems a bit premature.
This is an overly pessimistic take. Abreu and EE were not signed as upside plays, but but instead as reliable producers. And they are not blocking anyone. The only young position players that need to be left unblocked are Robert and Madrigal … and they are absolutely unblocked.
The White Sox are instead hopeful for upside from Cease, Kopech, Mazara, Eloy, Robert, and Madrigal. Could even argue that Moncada and Anderson have additional upside potential. This team is basically just as talented as the Twins, and only slightly behind the Indians. As things currently stand the White Sox probably have ~10-20% of winning the division. That’s great progress and great for their fans.
The Twins were 28 games better than the White Sox last year (and Cleveland 20)..
The White Sox have made some nice additions, but they have some definite regression candidates (look what Steamer expects Tim Anderson to do, for example, after that BABIP-fueled fever dream season), but it’s hard to squint and see +20 wins there
It is very rare for a rebuilding team to go from 70 wins to 90 wins overnight; a stopover in .500 land is almost inevitable, and if that’s the case, the White Sox are better off giving more PAs to fringey types and seeing if anyone else surprises them or works out than giving 1100 PAs to guys who almost certainly shouldn’t or won’t be starting for a competitive 2022 Chicago White Sox team.
I am kind of confused why everyone thinks that the ALC is such a winnable division when the Twins won over 100 games and Cleveland won 93 even though Kluber and Corrasco missed an enormous amount of time. Cleveland traded Kluber for nothing, but they also won 93 games without him contributing much last year.
Folks are acting like the ALC is going to be a division so weak it’s won by the first team to 88 wins or something, but that isn’t particularly likely (and 88 wins is going to be a very above-average outcome for this CWS roster).
There’s a bunch of talent on the way, but it’s worth taking a peek at projections for Robert and Madrigal: they’re probably not both gonna put up 600 PA and 4+ war in 2020. (Steamer projects Madrigal for a wRC+ under 100!)
I think the lines between ‘entertaining’ and ‘wise’ are frequently blurred because everyone’s so happy to see a team make an effort. It’s good that they’re trying, but a bit of tempering of expectations would be wise.
This isn’t that confusing, you’re just doing it wrong by starting with last year’s win totals as the right bench mark.
Take a look at the depth charts — they show the White Sox just behind the Indians and Twins. Now presumably the Twins have a few moves left in them, with Donaldson the one that would significantly move the needle, while the Indians could go backwards depending on what they do with Lindor, and aren’t likely to add much unless they’re subtracting at the same time.
All of which adds up to the reasonable belief that they’re in sniffing distance, which is the point of these low-risk, short-term signings.
People see the ALC as winnable need because they project the Twins off their roster *today* and they think Cleveland will regress from 93, perhaps to the high 80’s.
Doesn’t mean they’re right, but remember, the off-season is when everybody is like the Indians of Major League and 20 game improvements are just an eyeblink away.
It is also the time for selling season tickets: winning December has value at the box office.
I get the premise, but the Indians also no longer have Kluber, Carrasco is anyone’s guess, and talk of trading Lindor or Clevinger. The Twins staff also looks pretty miserable and they don’t seem to be trying to improve it.
Carrasco and Kluber barely contributed in 2019, though.
That doesn’t mean they didn’t need them to for THIS year though. Expecting Zach Plesac, Plutko and Civale to all have fantastic ERAs and outperform their FIPs is not something anyone should bank on. Their rotation is Clevinger, Bieber, and a bunch of question marks.
Clevinger and Lindor sure did.
And, currently, both of them are still on the team.
And the Twins were projected to win in the low 80s last season. Would say the White Sox look pretty similar to what the Twins looked like going into last season, good offense, . If you’re projected as a mid-80s win team it doesn’t take that much overperformance to get to mid-90s. Also wouldn’t be surprising to see the Indians or Twins season go up in flames, the Twins pitching currently looks worse than last year and probably every hitter won’t overperform again
The argument that this is going to be a very different team than the one with a 68-win pythagorean record is a fair point. I’d probably put the chances of the division around 15% too, so I more or less agree with your take-home message here. That said, it’s probably not wise to expect that players will dramatically outperform their projections without considering downside risk as well. A lot of things have to go right for them and a lot of things have to not go wrong for them to leapfrog both the teams in front of them.
Nah, this is a properly pessimistic take. My understanding is that Robert is stretched for center field? If so, the White Sox look to be defensively wretched in the outfield come June (or earlier).
If Eloy really doesn’t want to DH, then yeah, you give him another crack at the outfield. But then either Mazara or Encarnacion doesn’t belong here. I like either pickup by itself. In tandem, it’s bad roster shaping. And while not really expensive, not cheap, either.$12 mill always has its uses. Like, say, taking on salary come August if you are contending, or paying down Abreu’s contract if you aren’t contending come August, and so getting a better prospect haul.
Well your understanding is 100% wrong as robert is viewed as a + defender in CF.
If someone views Robert as a ++ defender in CF it’s safe to ignore all his opinions
You added a plus, Matt…
Yes, I’m sure you spent hours watching film on Robert so that you can assess his play in CF.
White Sox DH’s combined for -3.5 fWAR in 2019, while White Sox RF’s combined for -1.3 fWAR. Encarnacion represents a significant upgrade at little cost. Mazara is better than Castellanos against RHP and is also better defensively,. It should also be noted that the AL Central is devoid of good LHP starters. It pretty much begins and ends with Matthew Boyd.
The Twins have 2 starting pitchers, Berrios and Odorizzi then 3 question marks. Pineda will be serving the remainder of his suspension until mid May. The Indians lack an OF and have 2 starting pitchers primed for regression, Plesac and Civale. Two fly ball pitchers that do not strike hitters out and had very low BAPIPs .250 and .255 that is probably not sustainable. Neither the Twins or Indians are as talented or as deep as they were last season. There are still 3 months left in the offseason, but as currently constructed the White Sox will absolutely contend for the AL Central in 2020.
As Anthony Princeton pointed out, White Sox RF and DH’s were worth -4.8 WAR. So if Encarnacion and Mazara put up 3 WAR, that’s an 8 win improvement.
The next weakest spots were 2B and CF which put up about 2.5 WAR total. Madrigal and Robert project for 3.7.
Catcher was fine but McCann was a prime regression candidate. Grandal is a big upgrade there, even if McCann hits again.
All these moves on offense improve the depth which was a huge issue last year. Roughly a third of their PA’s went to below replacement level players. Whenever any of Anderson, Moncada, or Jimenez was hurt the offense REALLY struggled. That shouldn’t be nearly as big an issue this year.
And in the starting rotation, the 30 starts made by Santiago, Covey, Despaigne, Detwiler, Santana, and Banuelos (-1.2 WAR as SP) will be replaced and then some by a combination of Keuchel, Kopech, and a full season of Cease. They also have Gio Gonzalez to replace the departed, roughly league average Ivan Nova, but some of those starts will presumably be taken by the other three guys. Even with an injury, they should have 6 guys on the roster who don’t make you roll their eyes when they start. The worst of them (Cease) had a FIP- of 112 last year. Of the guys who are gone, the best FIP- was Santiago at 122.
The bullpen has holes still, but the White Sox have done an excellent job not just of improving, but upgrading their weakest positions from worst in baseball quality to league average. That is a tremendous improvement. They have roughly replaced the bottom of their roster and negative 3 or 4 total WAR with positive 9 or 10 projected WAR between the FA’s, Robert, and Madrigal.
Fangraphs currently has the roster 2 WAR worse than the Twins and 3.5 WAR worse than the Indians. That is pretty much a tossup for a preseason projection.
Also Rodon should be back around the ASB to add depth since Kopech and possibly Cease will have innings limitations.
In short, it makes a huge difference if you turn two positions that are Fs into two C+.
I’m pretty skeptical about Abreu beating his projection, and fairly skeptical about Mazara even matching his projection, but Encarnacion is projected for two wins and that’s a pretty big improvement over Collins. I don’t see them as real contenders even with this…they’re still pretty clearly behind both the Twins and Cleveland and if they do win the division they’re way behind anyone coming into the playoffs from the west or east, but if you’re going to spend all that money on guys who aren’t getting better EE seems like a reasonable get.
He was worth 1.9 WAR at age 32 and is projected for 1.8 WAR at 33. Sure, he could fall short, but what is your actual reason that he can’t be worth 1.8 WAR at 33? His defense has been equally bad his entire career – no downward trend though. Nothing particularly fluky about his performance last year.
I assume you’re referring to Abreu? I was just looking at his page–he’s projected for 1.9 or 1.8 by Steamer, depending on plate appearances. I think that’s fair. Someone posted him having 1.5 wins above, but that’s probably based on fewer PAs. I think all of those are reasonable outcomes given the PAs–on a rate basis I don’t think there’s any disagreement.
The issues for Abreu–that he might clock in somewhere south of 1.8–are really only based on two outcomes. One is that he gets hurt, something which is entirely plausible but not what we’re really talking about here. The other is that he underperforms his batted ball profile because he’s not exactly a burner, but he’s already more or less dealing with that already so I think that should be “priced in” to the projection. There’s always the risk he becomes a Pujols-esque plodder but I’m more concerned about that in 2021 and 2022 than in 2020.
So yeah, all of that when you add it up I don’t think there’s much disagreement on Abreu here from the projections, at least not from me.
Sorry, yes I was referring to Abreu as you figured. Obviously injury risk increases with age, but he has only ever had one moderate injury in his career and certainly isn’t going to get hurt diving for balls or sliding headfirst into second. I agree that his utter lack of speed could hurt his performance but as long as he continues to hit the ball hard and his GB rate doesn’t spike up, that is risk I am happy to take.
You note that Encarnacion, Mazara, etc. are only projected to be 1.5 WAR players, yet you seem to completely overlook that they are replacing a revolving door of negative value minor leaguers. Sure, going from AAAA fill-ins to solid vets may not provide the same boost as upgrading from a role player to a 6-win superstar. But getting positive value from everyday contributors is a huge step in filling the roster holes that doomed this team last year. When coupled with the upside of their young core, it’s absolutely possible this team makes a run next year.
Is a playoff appearance certain? No. But people acting like the White Sox need to “make up” 20-25 wins gets it wrong. Every team starts at zero to begin the season. And at the moment, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Chicago all look about the same in terms of talent and ceiling, each with their obvious strengths and glaring flaws. It’s anybody’s game…
“None of this offseason’s additions are all that costly, leaving the White Sox nearly $60 million below the first luxury tax threshold. This means that the team ought to still have room to take another stab at free agents after 2020. Bringing in a name or two from a list that could include Mookie Betts, George Springer, Marcus Semien, James Paxton, Marcus Stroman, Masahiro Tanaka, or Jake Odorizzi (among others) may be a simpler task if the White Sox are coming off a season in which they’re an actual contender rather than simply hoping to be one in the future.”
Thank you.
Logical fallacy #1: Proceeding from “a list that COULD include” etc., etc., when you know darn well it WON’T include all those names, and the weaker their ’20 season, the more likely they’ll then be so available. The 1 or 2 that do have good years and also don’t then reup with their current squad, you’ll be bidding against 1 of the Monsters for.
Logical fallacy #2: Spending $$$ prior to contention gets you there quicker. No, spending $$$ wisely prior to contention gets you there quicker. Spending it unwisely just leaves you less resourced for when you do get there. Given which, the only add I don’t like is Encarnacion. Or Mazara. Leaving the DH open, you can tell Eloy/Nomar/Luis “listen, you’ll be DHing once a week, and whenever you’re kinda banged up”. Now Eloy and Luis are forced into positions they may not be able to handle. To their own developmental hazard and that of their pitchers.
So, am I being downvoted because downvoters figure all those players WILL be free agents come next November, or am I being downvoted because downvoters figure spending $$$ unwisely is helpful? Possible actual answer #1: There’s a small cadre of readers who downvote me whenever I show up. This is the positive answer. Possible (and more likely) actual answer #2: On the no-longer-new Politically Correct Appelman Fangraphs, don’t you dare argue against Justice. OWNERS SHOULD SPEND MORE MONEY! OWNERS SHOULD SPEND MORE MONEY! Now let’s all join in on a rousing rendition of ‘The Internationale’.
Are you having a stroke?
Nah, it’s just that there have been several contentious discussions here over the last week re: the ChiSox offseason, and the faithful really REALLY want to believe.
Well, there are also a bunch of people who think that teams should just be spending more money, period. It’s probably half ChiSox faithful who want to believe and half people who just want teams to spend more.
But yeah, the downside of having the White Sox make a million moves is that we get to rehash the exact same arguments again. Although in contrast to the last few times, this time I think it’s actually different and good.
Or it’s a team making moves in one of the few winnable divisions in baseball and improving their chances. Some people seem to think that the only teams who should spend money are the ones who are good already and the rest should just accept their mediocre fate.
This guy gets it. I can’t wait to watch the 2020 White Sox basically every day. Angels and Friars too.
The sole purpose of listing potential 2020 FA is just to note that none of the current contracts this year preclude the team from trying to sign a good player next year. If there are no good players available next year then contracts given out this year still didn’t hurt the team because there is nobody to sign next year anyway. Robert projects as a fine defender in CF. Sure, he could struggle. Somebody could get hurt also, increasing the value of having someone else who can hit. Also,
The key word is OUGHT. I’m a little skeptical that Jerry Reinsdorf is turning over a new leaf. But if so, that’s great. Good for them.
If I could improve my team with four better than average players or one great signing, I’d take the four.
Encarnacion’s signing is more Sox management trying to convince fans of their seriousness of contending via a name acquisition than clever roster construction. Abreu and Encarnacion were great mashers of LHed pitching this year but that’s barely 1/3 of all AB’s. Encar’s 830 avg. OPS v. RHers and Abreu’s 770 avg v. RHers these last two years isn’t overly impressive by DH/1b standards. Meanwhile Collins’ 959 v. RHers in AAA last year and his 751 v. them in his brief rookie trial suggest the Sox may be short-circuiting his development by having him repeat AAA.
Season ticket sales matter.
And some teams prefer it when prospects force their way on to the team. Plus: service time management?
Okay, let me just deconstruct this a bit, because I don’t agree. Remember back when they traded for Nomar Mazara because they needed a left-handed bat? That made no sense. Nomar Mazara put up a 110 or so wRC+ against righties. He’s not a masher of anybody, left, right, or ambidextrous. What’s the point?
But Encarnacion? He also puts up about a 110 or so wRC+ against righties too. And he MASHES right handed pitching. So you got a guy who can mash against lefties. He can play every day because he can hit anyone. He’s just as good against righties as Mazara, which is Mazara’s supposed strength (Mazara can also play below-average defense in RF, which is why you can’t just replace Mazara with EE, but that’s another story).
The point is that EE is actually pretty good at this whole hitting thing, good enough that the platoon splits aren’t that big of a deal, while Mazara is not so good at this hitting thing, poor enough that the platoon splits make him a guy to be hiding rather than a guy you play because of his strengths. I think it’s fine.
The Encarnacion signing represents a major upgrade over White Sox DH’s that combined for -3.5 fWAR in 2019. It is a low cost, low risk addition. While McCann and Collins might have made a fine DH platoon, Encarnacion adds depth and consistency.
Of course you would rather add one 6 win player than 4 x 1.5 win players. They are really dumb for not signing a 6 win player. Or maybe 6 win players aren’t so easy to find and sign.
When you are replacing guys who were below replacement value, upgrading to 1.5 WAR players is huge.
You can add me to the pessimistic view. White Sox are still the third best team in the division imo, and looking like around a 500 team. There is a lot more downside here than people seem to want to talk about: Edwin is about to turn 37 and Abreu has already shown considerable regression. These are not safe players that production you can count on in 2020. Furthermore Tim Anderson while likely good is going to see severe regression without a plate discipline spike with his 399 BABIP. Keuchel and Gio I think will be fine but both are definitely risky additions.
The defense especially in the OF is a big worry. They did improve a lot but I’m still not seeing playoffs for them. Indians/Twins rosters are being overlooked as people to seem to be looking for the new shiny toy.
I don’t think anyone is overlooking the Indians and Twins. I think people are putting far too much faith into repeating 2019 when both the Indians and Twins have lost significant talent and depth. I would like for you or anyone else to prove otherwise.
The Indians have currently lost merely 35 mediocre innings from Kluber and the Bauer trade in midseason. That being said this is a team with Francisco Lindor, Shane Beiber, Jose Ramirez, Mike Clevinger, Carlos Carrasco (who seems like a good bet to pitch significantly more innings this year). They also have secondary pieces like Kike Hernandez, Franmil Reyes, Brad Hand, Aaron Civale, Carlos Santana, Roberto Perez returning. I don’t see how the White Sox roster is close to that. Twins are likely regressing a bit next year but too have a considerably better roster than the white soz
The discussion of course changes if a lindor trade were to happen but as of now this is how I see it
Lindor for now is worth more to Cleveland than anybody who might afford to meet their demands. Next year? TBD.
Carlos Santana is secondary?
Also, Kike Hernandez is still with LA.
You’re thinking Cesar Hernandez, right?
(And Reyes had better be more than secondary or Cleveland is going to be in big trouble.)
Cleveland has question marks but so do the rest of tbe teams.
That’s why they play the games, to see how they’re answered. Some answers will be good some bad.
Main thing is tbe ChiSox project closer to the Twins and Indians than to KC and Tigers. How close is TBD.
Iirc Abreu is similar to Cruz last year. Coming off a “down” year when all batted ball metrics said he hit the ball better than ever before. Cruz had a “down” (133) followed it up w 161 last year and the best season of his career. Now obviously Cruz is a much better hitter than Abreu. But Abreu actually hit the ball better than he had since his rookie year last year. Lots of variance in baseball. Sometimes guys “regress” but it is actually an illusion.
I think a lot of people see the White Sox as a potential division winner but also recognize them to most likely be the third place team in the division. It’s just that, unlike last year, they could be in third place but a hot streak away from winning versus in third place and a cold streak away from a top 5 draft pick.
The White Sox are a team that, I think, look a lot better to a scout’s eye than a computer’s. That’s a bit of a backhanded compliment to them, but more a point about projection systems: they can’t and don’t try to predict or believe breakouts; they’ll only predict improvements via regression to established means. ‘Established means’ are not particularly meaningful for young players, of which the Sox are full.
As expected, the projections for the White Sox’ young guys are rather less than enthusiastic across the board, including for the more established ones. Moncada, Giolito, and Anderson are projected by Steamer for 3.5 (ZiPS), 3.2, and 2.0 fWAR in 2020, after putting up seasons of 5.7, 5.1, and 3.5 fWAR in 2019.
The projections are even harsher on the less established players. As Steamer sees it: Cease: 1.4 fWAR in 108IP, Kopech: 0.9 in 91IP, Eloy: 2.6 in 572 PA, Robert: 2.4 in 473 PA, Madrigal: 1.6 in 460 PA. Combining them with the first group, that’s 7 current or recently graduated Global Top 25 prospects (all but Anderson), with 4 current/former Global Top 5 guys (Moncada, Giolito, Eloy, & Robert). Chances are pretty good that some of these projections get obliterated, and with those individual ones the “80-87” win projection.
That is the thing. Lots of upside. I’m sure a couple guys will regress. But imagine if a few guys take another step forward? Before you say “you can say that about any team”… Well no, you can’t. Most teams have guys who are in their prime, or have been good players for multiple seasons. That is not true with the White Sox. A lot of players are coming off a breakout season and are still young enough that it could be the new norm or, even take a step forward. That is why I think there should be a lot of optimism with this group, they are still young! Eloy is 23. Moncada is 24. Mazara is somehow still 24. Tim Anderson is 26. People peak younger these days, and every single one of those players has been considered a disappointment at some point with the exception of maybe Eloy. Why? Even by the new peak standards they are still young. Can you imagine if they all took a step forward simultaneously? You can’t say that about many teams.
That’s quite simply not true
Why? Curious. They have a lot of young guys who were top prospects prior.
Having hated on the Keuchel and Mazara (and Abreu) deals, I’ll say that given where the White Sox are right now this deal makes fine sense. They’ve already gone all in this offseason with a bunch of guys who probably aren’t getting any better, so a guy who can give you a a couple wins at DH seems like a whole lot better than hoping Zack Collins figures out how to hit before the all-star break. But there’s really not much downside because if EE totally bombs he’s out and if he succeeds you can keep him around for another year.
This gets them (probably) another win closer to the Twins and Cleveland (maybe two, if Collins really doesn’t figure it out), close enough that I’m now pretty confident they can make things interesting. Yeah, they’re probably still 2-3 games behind the Twins and Cleveland, but in they might not even be done yet (even though I’m not sure where they’re going to upgrade at this point).
IMO, this is why the Encarnacion signing is just bad (now that I’ve given it more thought). When should a maybe-contending team spend on a projected 2 WAR DH? Never. You don’t spend on a DH until you ARE a contender, not when you hope to be one.
Any DH hole is temporary. Come July there are AL-ways, always overpriced hitters available from squads that have disappointed. If like the Brewers of 2 seasons back you surprise your way into contention, fine, then take on salary via a veteran hitter who will be every bit Encarnacion’s equal, probably a little bit more useful, actually. Prior to that? Yes, see if Zack Collins can hit. If not, DH each of Grandal/Eloy/Nomar/Luis once a week, which will pay off on wear and tear over the course of a full season, and use the other 2 games to audition some player somewhere who can hit decent enough but just can’t field a position. Those are available.
Well, but if they wait they won’t have him the whole season. Their decision to spend a lot of money on free agents didn’t make much sense back when they were projected for something like 7 games below .500 or whatever they were, but before the Encarnacion signing they were projected for something like 3 games above .500. I disagree with the logic of their offseason because of where they were on the win curve before the season started, but once they’ve gotten this far this is the point where it actually starts making sense to sign guys.
“When should a maybe-contending team spend on a projected 2 WAR DH? Never. ” Why? The Twins did that on Nelson Cruz last year, worked out great for them. Why would you want to trade to fill a hole midseason if you can fill the hole now just be spending cash that would’ve otherwise just gone to the owner’s pockets? The only downside risk is that EE sucks and they keep running him out there, but you’d pretty much run that same risk with your hypothetical mid-season pickup, and the mid-season pickup is at least going to cost some kind of prospect, and you also have no idea what, if anything, will be available, while EE was available right now.
Not to mention that if the Sox do not ultimately contend, there’s a reasonable chance they can flip EE for something of modest value at the deadline.
The one thing I don’t like about this deal is that I would have liked to see Collins get some real major league at bats. Guys like Collins who strike out this much but can hit AAA pitching anyway–I’m not sure how much they are going to get out of going back to the minors where he did pretty well last year already. Maybe someone who knows more about his specific issue (whether there’s a particular type of pitch he doesn’t recognize, maybe?) might be able to speak more about whether he actually has more to learn in the minors or if he just has to take his lumps in the majors, but the White Sox are probably going to need Collins or someone like him in a couple of years or so. His upside isn’t enough to delay making a likely 2-win upgrade given where they are right now, so it’s more of a minor concern, but I suspect this isn’t optimal for Collins.
I don’t think Collins would have gotten everyday at bats even without EE. As the article points out this allows him to play everyday in the minors which seems better than sitting 2-3 times a week in the bigs.
Can’t wait until Szymborski says that the “Rays should be bidders on Betts, Springer, Bauer, et al because they’re $130M under the competitive balance threshold.” The White Sox are currently at $135M in payroll ($153M if you add in benefits) and that’s on a revenue base of $270M or so last year. They have banked a lot of profits over the last few years since their revenues following the MLBAM sale have stabilized at $270M and their payrolls have hung around $90M during the rebuild. Still to get to a $200M payroll, I’d expect they need to get revenues around $400M since 50% is the league average. They sold 1.7M tickets last year and have one of the most win-elastic fan bases in the league. If the team wins 85 games, maybe they can sell 2.5M tickets, but at $50/ticket (including cheaper tickets with concession sales), that’s only $40M in revenues. The last time the White Sox won 85ish games was 2012 and they did $210M in revenue. 2012 MLB revenue was $6.8B and it’s now $9.9B. That would imply $305M in revenue for the White Sox, though maybe we can add in $40M-$50M increment for MLBAM and get to around $350M. Can they get another $50M in apparel sales, sponsorships, and higher future TV contracts?
Hope there are some articles coming on the Betances and Calhoun signings too.
EE was an absolute disaster in the ALCS, and I had assumed he was a disappointment during the season after the trade to NYY. Surprised to see he’s still viewed as a big time bat.
At least it’s only a 1yr deal, which could add trade value if an unlikely run at contention fails to materialize on the south side.
Ever heard of short sample size? Ted Berg has a song about that. EE had a solid season with a 130ish wRC+ in 2019.
The Sox seem like a high variance team, which is fine. Some of the older guys could put up repeat numbers from last year pretty easily, but they could also grow old overnight. They have a lot of younger pitchers and prospects who might be good, but might not be good next year. One thing I don’t understand is people criticizing the contracts they gave out this year on the basis that it somehow hurts them from spending in the future or retaining talent. EE and Gio signed one year deals. Mazara has no long-term cost. Abreu and Keuchel are signed for 3 years. The Sox core players are either signed to reasonable extensions (Anderson) or under direct cost control for several years. Sure, they may extend Moncada or Giolito some time in the next 3 years, but the salaries themselves won’t be high for 3 or 4 more years.
These signings may not turn out well. The prospects may not develop. But these signings won’t hurt the team financially 3 years from now and won’t prevent them from trying to sign talent in the next few years either.
And you know this from your discussions with Hahn and Reinsdorf on the 2021 budget? When a team makes a multi-year commitment to players, that’s less money to give to other players in future years unless the team is planning on expanding the payroll. (Not sure why you non-SABR folks have so much trouble understanding budgets.) We have no idea what the White Sox plans in this area are, they’re currently at their record payroll, they’ve never given out a bigger contract than Grandal’s $73M, so there’s a lot of reason for skepticism that they’ll give out a 10/$400M offer to Betts next year. Especially after they’ve cluttered the payroll with $35M to Abreu & Keuchel, who produce the same as guys who were DFA’d.
I don’t really want to re-litigate the Abreu and Keuchel deals because they’re signed and it’s done and we’ve already had that conversation but a lot of these conversations about how the White Sox have plenty of money to spend in the future remind me of the fans proposing trades that only benefit their favorite team. For example, I haven’t seen this deal (but I have seen some like it), what would you say if a Yankees fan proposed Estevan Florial and Albert Abreu for Francisco Lindor? You would say, “that’s not how Cleveland would see it at all. You’re only seeing it from the Yankees perspective.”
(again, I’ve not seen anyone propose that deal and I think the Yankees fans here are smart enough to know that’s a silly deal).
Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s a bit ridiculous that the Dodgers and Red Sox and Cubs are so money-conscious right now, but just because I think it’s ridiculous doesn’t mean they’re going to suddenly start spending. Similarly, I think it’s totally reasonable for the team to spend closer to the luxury tax limit but that doesn’t mean they’ll do it. What conditions are necessary for that to be true? How likely are they to be satisfied? It’s complicated for a number of reasons because it involves discussions between the owners (who have varying desires to win, both across owners and across seasons), the GMs, and the business side of the operation (who are taking into account both costs and ticket sales). It’s possible to come up with several scenarios where they are going to spend big next offseason too, but a lot more where they don’t.
I don’t think Dan wrote it but the summary for this article said the White Sox “struck out” on elite free agents; but they got Grandal the 5th highest on the top 50 (not counting the non existent FA JD Martinez), and didn’t try to go after anyone above him.
What an exciting 78-win team.