William the Conqueror
LOS ANGELES — The Brewers had the NLCS pretty much in the bag since they struck right back at Blake Snell in the top of the seventh on Wednesday night — it was just a matter of when the coup de grace came. You could argue when it became obvious that they’d log the Dodgers off with a sweep: Was it when they chased Tyler Glasnow, making it clear that this would become yet another battle of bullpens? When Jake Bauers worked his last climactic walk off Alex Vesia to tie the game?
I’ll tell you the exact pitch when I knew that Thursday was going to be the Brewers’ night. William Contreras came to the plate with two on and two out in the top of the fifth, and the Dodgers still up 4-3. Evan Phillips started Contreras off with a first-pitch sweeper, right down the middle for a called strike.
Contreras stepped back from the plate and nodded theatrically. That’s when I knew the Dodgers were drawing dead.
Michael is a writer at FanGraphs. Previously, he was a staff writer at The Ringer and D1Baseball, and his work has appeared at Grantland, Baseball Prospectus, The Atlantic, ESPN.com, and various ill-remembered Phillies blogs. Follow him on Twitter, if you must, @MichaelBaumann.
For years, I’ve asked a simple question without ever getting a satisfactory answer. What is the role of a captain in baseball? They can’t make a mound visit. They are no more entitled to bring out a lineup card than any coach or other player. They have no more right to address an umpire than a manager or any other player. They have a C on their uniform, but today they also have an ad on their uniform.
This goes back to when the Red Sox announcers referred to “Captain Carl” whose grandson now is a major league veteran and not a captain (so the job is apparently not inherited).
Christian Yelich is the captain of the Brewers.
Except if there’s any simple leadership role of a captain, the real captain, without question, is William Contreras. Who may well be the first player touching the Commissioner’s trophy in a few weeks.
The answer to the question of what makes a person a leader is not written anywhere. I have seen it happen in my own life experience and it has been something to behold. At the golf club where I was employed I was lucky to have a large number of very talented young golfers come to the course at around the same time. These boys and girls ranged in age from 9 and up and grew up playing all the time. While there was no attempt by any of the staff to organize the group it didn’t take long before a boy who was only 13 took over and became the leader despite there being several older boys, all very good players, who were present. This 13 year old had a presence that was palpable. His confidence showed in every thing he did and the other teenagers quickly accepted him as the “captain” which I think defines what he was perfectly. The local high school became a dominant force winning numerous state high school championships in both boys and girls divisions and individual honors. I am still very close to this young man and he has risen to the top of his profession while still in his 30’s, which comes as no surprise to all at the club who watched him grow. The Contreras brothers have that same innate ability to lead. Willson, almost immediately, became the face of the Red Sox this year. It can’t be forced but if that leader can be found it is a great help in keeping an even keel through the ups and downs of the very tough slog that is a baseball season.
Just cause Carl was a captain doesn’t mean Mike inherits that title. To quote Hank Hill, “We fought a whole war against England about that.”
You can always tell who leaders are because they have people following them.
Wasn’t actually having the C basically non-existent until Varitek lamely insited on it?
I really don’t care if Contreras is a 30+ yo catcher. They should still sign him long term – 5 or 6 years. He can’t be over the top expensive and they aren’t the same without him and Chourio and Turang. Everyone else can be subject to cold analysis.
Small market doesn’t mean no long contracts. I doubt they regret signing Yelich. Rays signed Franco and Longoria.
FA signings of middling “veterans” to “stabilise” something is what they should stay away from.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see William follow in his brothers’ footsteps and pick up first base as he hits his mid 30s. He’s shown a drive to improve that is truly astonishing — a lot of the talk around the time of the trade was that there was no way he sticks behind the plate. And I wonder if shifting him to a 1B/DH role would give him a bit of boost at the plate, like it’s clearly done for Willson.
Looking the payroll situation — which may be pointless given that the CBA may shift things around — they won’t be paying Woodruff the QO. I highly doubt they QO Bauers. There’s a decent chance they flip Megill — the Hader/Williams deals are a cornerstone of how this team was built.
The top of the catching market (which, honestly, there’s just not a lot of first-stringers who aren’t in the club control phase of their careers) probably sits $20 mil-ish. You can backload it a little — Yelich comes off the books after 28. His first FA year is his age 30 season. Put together a deal not unlike Raleigh’s, with the first year cheaper to accommodate Yelich’s contract and an AAV bump (target low $20s overall). Do 4-5 years and add some vesting and/or team options. I think that gets it done.
But I think they’d reasonably have to consider whether they want to extend Contreras or Turang, and I’m not sure they can reasonably do both without some serious downside risk.
Everything you are arguing is the antithesis of what got the Brewers to the World Series. They only have Contreras because they had the courage to trade Hader, instead of resigning him. Their NLSC MVP would not even be on the team had they not been willing to fill some holes with middling veterans. While I’m not arguing the Brewers should never try to lock up post arby players long-term, I don’t thing they should in this situation. It is almost Quero’s time.
4 years yes. 6 hell no.
There was a time bucks fans though Thon Maker trade was gonna get Giannis upset lol.
Guys these are all professionals.
I’d read a biography of the Contreras brothers, just for a deeper look into their psyches and approach to baseball. There’s a level of caring, of purpose, that seems like it is off-putting to a lot of people they’ve encountered in MLB and that I (who doesn’t have to share a locker room or a field with them) find admirable and even endearing. Just the other day I read some article on mlb about Murphy calling Walt Weiss for a review on Contreras and Weiss basically beginning with defensive remarks about how Contreras isn’t what he first appears to be.
Good for him. And, of course, nice article.
William is definitely the emotional foundation of the team.
FWIW leadership in the clubhouse is the troika of Contreras, Yelich and Bauers
Murphy’s style would have failed miserably if these guys didn’t buy into it completely.
Maybe a salary floor will help them prioritize an extension
According to the Cespedes BBQ podcast, William Contreras also chooses cologne very well.
The Brewers at the very least will treat Wild Bill like Adames rather than trade him a year before he hits free agency like Burnes, Peralta and Hader. At the very least it will give Quero another year to (I hope) heal and make the catching situation a bit clearer going forward; if Quero is done as a catcher they can think about extending Contreras or trading for a quality starting catcher. I also believe Bauer gets a QO. That’s basically giving Woody’s money to him and gives Fisher and Burke (and Bitonti) more runway; if those guys develop the Crew can always flip Bauers at the deadline (or he rejects the QO and they get the draft pick and the money that goes along with it).
Judging Jake Bauers value is going to be the #1 challenge for major league front offices this off-season. Who is he? It isn’t like he is a young player on the rise. He is a 30 year old who couldn’t reach replacement level after first appearing in 2018 and, heaven knows, he had enough chances. OTOH, it was impossible not to notice him as he played a huge role in the Brewers success throughout the regular season, and now the playoffs have been a tour de force. I am completely at a loss for this breakout and am waiting to find out what the industry is going to do. It is hard to imagine the Brewers not offering him a QO if for no reason other than to thank him for this year. He has given the franchise that value, ten times over, in advance. It will be very interesting.
I was pondering this yesterday. I dug through his Savant page, looking for anything that seemed like an actual approach change. The only thing I came up with is he’s just swinging less overall. He isn’t necessarily whiffing less or chasing less, he’s just swinging less. And it wasn’t like he was a guy who swung at everything before that.
His Savant page looks eerily like Schwarber’s. I think very little chase, combined with clobbering the ball when you do connect, is the path to still being productive with a ~30% K rate. It’s a fine line though. If you don’t clobber the ball enough and/or the K-rate creeps higher, suddenly you’re end-stage Joey Gallo. I think that Bauers will have a couple more years as a decent thumper, but this could very well just be a fluke year.
“but this could very well just be a fluke year.” Which is exactly why I am waiting. with considerable interest, to see what the offers will be.
Right, the Savant line is helpful for sussing out whether someone was lucky, but an extended hot streak is indistinguishable from an actual new level of performance. I’m not sure though that he’d get a lot more than the QO, considering his age and the risk, but it just takes one team to outbid. Maybe the Mets do it out of Alonso remorse.
The Mets are, in some way, forced into a corner and there isn’t a better option than Bauers out there. Your idea makes sense in a lot of ways.
The Brewers just might offer Bauers the QO, but I think he’ll wisely reject it and Arnold will sign Nate Lowe for under $10M.
Yeah, I think that NLCS ensured Milwaukee offers a QO, because it all but guarantees Bauers declines it.
As for Lowe, they have Fischer and Burke knocking down the door to fill that LH masher role, so id expect any non Bauers 1B addition to be more of the NRI variety that they feel comfortable cutting in May to pivot to one of those guys.
Can someone explain this aside to me? “ — don’t laugh, Esteury Ruiz had a decent season this year “
Something to do w/ the A’s getting fleeced?
When the A’s traded Sean Murphy, they could have just gotten William Contreras. But they turned it into a 3-team trade and ended up with Ruiz and four other players who aren’t in MLB anymore.
He’s been, to me, the best player across all of the playoffs. He hits for power, hits for average, walks, stops passed balls, calls a great game and can throw out runners. He also is amazing at ABS challenges. On top of that, I so appreciate how he talks to opposing players. They just chat and seem to get along, no acrimony. I also like that when they play his brother, he’s always getting hit. Guy is amazing. My favorite catcher in all of baseball and one of my favorite players period. And…I’m a Dodgers fan.