With Sonny Gray, the Yankees Are World Series-Ready
The A’s were never going to hold. There was simply too much for them to lose. Sure, the rumors flew around, but they never made sense, as the A’s aren’t stupid. The A’s were never going to hold, and the Yankees were always the obvious match. They stood to gain the most in the short-term, and they stood to gain the most in the long-term. An agreement felt virtually inevitable, and while there were tugs on either side, there’s nothing like a deadline to push negotiators toward a decision. As time ran out, the A’s and the Yankees finally came together, as one would’ve figured they would.
Yankees get:
- Sonny Gray
- $1.5 million in international bonus money
A’s get:
The Yankees get to sell it as a move for a good starting pitcher in which they didn’t have to give up their absolute top-tier prospects. The A’s get to sell it as a move for three talented young players, each of whom could make a big-league splash. Neither interpretation would be incorrect — that’s how the spin goes when you’re dealing with a system as deep as New York’s. The A’s did well to get what they did, and there’s something to dream on with all of these players, yet the bigger takeaway for now is that the Yankees have taken another step forward. Their transition period is complete, and they’re now ready to try for a title.
It’s not that Gray moves the needle that much by himself. He’s a No. 2 starting pitcher, not Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw. Gray is a big part of this, but recall that the Yankees also recently added guys like Jaime Garcia, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, and Todd Frazier. They’ve gotten better and better with every move, and what they are now is both strong and deep. Here’s one look at how things have gone: Here are every team’s estimated winning percentages according to BaseRuns, with the Yankees highlighted.
BaseRuns thinks the Yankees have been great! At the same time, BaseRuns is backward-looking. We want to be forward-looking, and the Yankees’ roster has undergone changes, anyhow. Here is updated rest-of-season projected WAR. It’s not the same thing as a projected winning percentage, but the two are very tightly linked.
If you want, you can see a divide there between teams seven and eight. That divide could define the upper tier, and if you interpret the landscape that way, then the Yankees look strong, almost as strong as any other team in the league. Perhaps they’re not quite as good as the Indians, I don’t know, but they’ve both played well and gotten better. Coming into the year, the Yankees were probably, internally, more focused on 2018. This wasn’t supposed to happen as fast as it has. But the Yankees played well, and the front office adjusted, making moves to improve a competitive roster. This Gray trade is the biggest splash, and the Yankees were the clear, optimal fit.
Gray is a good starting pitcher today, and he should be a good starting pitcher under team control for another two full seasons. Think first about this in the short-term. Which teams stand to gain the most from significant midseason upgrades? Teams right on the bubble. Teams like, say, these Yankees, who are fighting for either the division or the wild card. Gray could make the biggest difference for the Yankees’ odds, given their positioning, and given the state of their starting five. There are question marks in there. There are possible innings caps in there. Gray changes the look of the staff.
Think now about this in the longer-term. I certainly don’t want to pretend like we already know the future of baseball, but look around the various divisions. The Dodgers don’t seem like they face an imminent threat. Nor do the Cubs, Brewers first half aside. Maybe, maybe, the Nationals should be worried about the 2018 Mets, but the Nationals will still be the favorites. No one in the AL West is close to the Astros. No one in the AL Central ought to be close to the Indians. Those other divisions appear to have easy favorites. The AL East is different. The AL East is always deep, and at the very least, the Yankees will be fighting against the Red Sox. So, there’s stiffer competition, further incentivizing the Yankees to make this kind of acquisition. This is a difference-maker beyond the next few months.
Luis Severino seems to be great. Jordan Montgomery’s been a pleasant surprise. The Yankees have already lost Michael Pineda, and after the year, they could lose both CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka. Jaime Garcia, too. This is kind of the Yankees’ equivalent of the Cubs’ move for Jose Quintana. We’re not necessarily dealing with a true ace, but teams don’t want to go into the winter needing a top starter. Too many suitors; prices get outrageous. The Yankees have accomplished a lot by getting one guy.
Gray has had an ace-y reputation before. That’s what happens when you pitch to a sub-3 ERA. He was certainly the ace in Oakland, but injuries spoiled his 2016. Gray now is back to form, albeit in a different way. His signature breaking ball is less of a weapon, but he has his best strikeout rate since he was a rookie. Gray has a 75 FIP-, and an xFIP- to match. To put it in different, if similar terms — Gray has about the same expected wOBA allowed this season as Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez. He ranks in the 80th percentile among starters with a reasonable amount of playing time. I suppose you could classify Gray as a bottom-half No. 1. Better to think of him as quite a good No. 2. He comes out looking a good deal worse than Severino does.
Gray was hurt last season, and he was hurt at the beginning of this season. It was going to be too much of a risk for the A’s to hold onto him. The reality is that, when you’re a non-competitive team, all pitchers should be regarded as short-term assets, even if they’re under longer-term control. The Yankees will hope that Gray’s arm stays attached; the A’s no longer have to worry about that. They can turn their attention to Fowler, Kaprielian, and Mateo. These are three significant prospects, who should help to usher forward Oakland’s rebuilding process.
When Eric looked at the Yankees’ system in March, he ranked Kaprielian fourth, Mateo sixth, and Fowler seventh. Circumstances have changed. Nevertheless, that’s a testament to the talent included in the haul. Mateo’s 22. Fowler’s 22. Kaprielian is the old guy, at 23. Each could become an impact regular.
The obvious asterisk here has to do with the injuries. Scouts love Kaprielian. He’s out, after having had Tommy John surgery. Scouts also love Fowler. He’s out, after having had season-ending knee surgery. Mateo is the only healthy one, and health for the others shouldn’t be taken for granted. These are no longer undamaged kids. Rehab from Tommy John is not a formality, and neither is rehab from a knee operation. Kaprielian is more of a risk than ever before. Fowler, too. Even if you think they’ll be fine down the road, one can’t know that. The human body isn’t better for breaking.
As Gray rumors circled, over the previous days, it seemed the A’s were in the market for a high-ceiling center fielder. Fowler might come away being that center fielder. He’s an aggressive-swinging lefty who has enough of a zone idea to come up short of being a hacker. Despite an unimpressive Triple-A walk rate, he worked a high number of counts to his advantage. He’s also steadily increased his rate of fly balls over time, allowing his power to more fully blossom. Fowler appeared big-league ready when he suffered his horrible knee injury in his debut. He should help the A’s as soon as next season, provided he’s regained his mobility. He might be a tweener, but the A’s will have space.
Mateo, in a way, might alternatively come away being that center fielder. Although he’s played far more shortstop, this year he’s started to get semi-regular center-field reps, and that could be a good application of his 80-level speed. Maybe the A’s will permanently return Mateo to the infield — I’m not sure — but his speed is a legitimate tool, and he’s made a terrific impression in Double-A. Mateo might not develop enough power to go with his somewhat elevated strikeout rate, but since arriving in Double-A, he’s hit a lower rate of grounders than ever, so he might be making an adjustment. Mateo won’t come as quickly as Fowler will, but he’s likely to have a career.
Kaprielian was a mid-first-round pick in 2015. He’s a 6-foot-4 righty who flashed a big fastball before needing surgery. Eric was also taken by the rest of his four-pitch repertoire, but because of the injury, Kaprielian has a limited statistical record as a professional. He had Tommy John surgery in April, so he’s likely to be rehabbing through next spring, but this past spring, there was talk Kaprielian could debut in 2017, so he’s regarded as a fast mover. If he gets himself healthy and back to 100%, he won’t be far from the majors. It’s just, you know how people talk about pitching prospects who aren’t hurt. Kaprielian’s already been hurt. There’s nothing here to be taken for granted.
It’s an easy move for the Yankees to justify. They’re not losing anything they were going to need, and Gray fits their roster better than any other available player could have. It’s just another move the Yankees made to try to find some separation between themselves and the Red Sox. From the A’s perspective, they’re going to worry about Fowler and Kaprielian until they come back, but that has to be better than worrying about Gray’s arm every time he throws 100 pitches. Fowler and Kaprielian, at least, have years, and very high ceilings. There’s less pressure there. And these are players who could arrive in 2018. Mateo, perhaps, as well. The A’s didn’t sell Gray for guys who might not show up until 2021. There could be a quicker return on investment, as the A’s still don’t want to tear it all completely to the ground.
Like most trades these days, this makes good sense for both sides. Like few trades these days, this is a blockbuster. The Yankees are ready to try for a World Series. The A’s are ready to try to not suck. Not this year, I mean. This year is toast. But brighter days should lie ahead. It’s good to just finally have this move done.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
You briefly highlight on this but the Cubs and Yankees moves for Quintana and Gray, respectively, highlight the underlying issue of: a) mediocrity of their current rotation b) mediocrity of the upcoming pitching free agent class.
Cubs rotation (aside from Lester) struggled in the first half but have come around a bit after the break. Arrieta looks better. But Arrieta becomes a FA after this season, so the rotation behind Lester and Hendricks is unknown. Unknowns are bad for World Series competitive clubs. So, they spent big for Quintana.
Yankees rotation (aside from Sevy and maybe Monty) is nothing amazing. Pineda was shaky, Tanaka threw occasional HR Derby sessions, and CC served his role as the 5th starter. Pineda (lost for the year), CC, and Tanaka are becoming FAs as well so the question remained how will the Yanks replace them. Yanks lead the division so had to make a move for SP. So, they acquired Gray.
The similarities between the Cubs and Yanks transactions is Quintana and Gray is control for this year and beyond. ’17 Cubs and ’17 Yanks have major SP problems to address and only largely mediocre FA class are the solutions. Tier A players, the type the Cubs and Yanks should look to, like Darvish (31), Arrieta (32), Tanaka (29) have dipped enough in production to question if they deserve long term deals.
The preemptive rotation fixing is the smart way to go about this issue and both clubs had the ability to do so because of their farm systems. Credit to Theo and Cashman for being good at their jobs.
Severino, Gray, Tanaka (not opting out), Montgomery is a good 1-4 for 2018. Maybe bring back Sabathia on a short term deal to round out the rotation.
Would be interesting to see Sabathia in a multi-inning bullpen role next season on a lower dollar contract.
What would be interesting about this?
Lower than what? His current deal? Sure, but you’re not getting an above-average MLB starter to pitch out of the pen for cheap.
Why would Tanaka not opt out?
why not?
because
A) he likes the team he’s on
B) that team will be perennial contenders
C) he’s well paid
and
D) he probably can’t find a team willing to pay more than will the Yankees, particularly as Tanaka’s medical records will indicate that he’s got an unstable pitching arm.
A & B, Those don’t usually have much of an effect on players’ decisions.
C & D, I’m willing to bet many teams would gladly give him more guaranteed money to play for them. He’s pitched with the ligament issue for years and still been very good more often than not.
I’m still curious.
That “not,” of course, encompasses the majority of his contract year.
In March, I would have told you it was a sure thing.
Now, I think it really, really depends on how he finishes the season.
Japanese culture is different than American culture. Tanaka will probably stay with the Yankees because of A&B.
I doubt that Sabathia is back in the Yankee rotation next season.
the team can use the $25M saved to acquire a younger and better starter…… assuming that Otani doesn’t come over and sign on in the Bronx, where he can also be offered some part-time DH work, which he is said to crave.
Sabathia won’t cost anywhere close to $25 million next year. I think the odds he stays in NY on a 1-year deal are actually pretty high.
My money is on Sabathia back with the yanks on a 1 yr, 12 million deal with a club option and 5 million buyout. Sabathia likes the yanks, and the yanks like CC
This return is very underwhelming for two and a half years of a “bottom half No. 1”. Fowler is the highest ranked prospect (89th per BA’s midseason 2017 list), but he just suffered one of the most devastatingly serious injuries a position player who relies on speed could suffer. Mateo and Kaprielian are unranked.
The Rangers got the best prospect traded today for a two-month rental of Darvish. Willie Calhoun is ranked 74th, is a very A’s type of player (big power, good on-base ability, bad defense), and won’t have to survive a scary injury recovery before he can contribute in the MLB. Mateo and Kaprielian are probably more valuable than Davis and Alexy, but that brings the value of these packages to roughly even in my estimation.
Neither the A’s nor the Rangers had much leverage, but I am quite surprised that the prices paid for a two-month rental SP and a SP under team control for 2.5 more years are so similar.
What happened? Do executives really think Gray is that much worse than Darvish? Did the Rangers have some sort of unrevealed information that gave them more negotiating power than we know of? Did the Dodgers overpay? Does Oakland just suck at player evaluation?
Prospect evaluation is not uniform. Baseball America may not like these players, but the only thing that matters is whether Billy Beane likes them. Apparently he does, Mateo in particular. Time will tell who was more accurate in their evaluations.
Nobody else likes them very much. MLB.com has none of Fowler, Mateo and Kaprielian on its midseason top 100 list. None of them are on BP’s midseason top 50 list. BA only has Fowler, at #89. In fact, Fowler is the one of the three who is even in the Yankees’ midseason top 10 per BA, and he is 6th.
If you are buying something and are willing to pay $20, you should consider the fact that other people value the thing at only $10, because then you only have to pay $11 to acquire it instead of $20! What a concept.
Fangraph’s Eric Longenhagen liked them, especially Kaprielian
” Conservatively, there’s a chance for three plus pitches, a viable fourth weapon in the curveball and average control/command. That’s approaching a top-of-the-rotation arm. If the fastball velocity we saw throughout the Fall League is sustainable, and I’m light on the fastball grade, then we’re there.”
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-33-prospects-new-york-yankees/
Again, this is before he underwent Tommy John Surgery. You cannot just write that off
Longenhagen had Kaprielian rated 46 spots higher than Calhoun before the season, so even after the surgery they’re still comparable. BA doesn’t like Kaprielian simply because of his delivery. Calhoun is high floor, low upside prospect due to his advanced bat coupled with strongly negative defensive and base running value. If you want a DH, he’s a prospect you’ll like. If you want someone to play the field, you won’t like him at all, which is why the Dodgers didn’t call him up. Mateo, Fowler, and Kaprielian all have more risk than Calhoun but they each also have more upside.
One correction and one disagreement. Dustin Fowler is at #77 according to MLB Pipeline (MLB.com).
“If you are buying something and are willing to pay $20, you should consider the fact that other people value the thing at only $10, because then you only have to pay $11 to acquire it instead of $20! What a concept.”
Buying for $11 is dependent on the seller. If a seller values something at $20 and won’t sell for less than $20 then $20 is required to buy it.
Upon further review:
I think I had misunderstood what the only Met to throw a no-hitter was saying:
The “other people” part meaning the seller. Not other buyers. Makes sense if the selling price is indeed $10. Im not sure if it makes me feel any better but I see I wasn’t alone in the confusion. +6
(or maybe i’m confused if I was confused?)
As a Dodgers fan the consensus is the team did well to not give up one of its top three prospects, or other intriguing guys like M. White, D. May, D.J. Peters, Y. Diaz, S. Heredia, D. Santana, etc. Calhoun looks like he will be able to hit for power and contact in the big leagues, but the fit with the Dodgers is awkward considering his defensive reputation and the team’s glut of young lefty hitters. I look forward to seeing him mash in the AL.
The injuries to two of the new As prospects cloud their futures, but all three look like high risk/high reward guys regardless. It will probably take 4-5 years to see who “won” this Yankees trade, and the winner will look like a big winner (there’s still question marks with Gray in the long term considering his recent injuries/poor play). For the Dodgers trade, I don’t think it will be second guessed by Dodgers fans even if Calhoun becomes an all star and the lottery ticket guys become big leaguers. Dodgers are now set for the postseason with a four man staff of two legit aces and two guys pitching like number 1s, even if they don’t come away with the WS they’ve put themselves in the best position to do so throughout their run of division titles. And their system remains mostly intact.
I agree that it’s a good move to make for LA.
I think a lot of teams are leery of Gray after last year. I am kind of blown away by that, since he’s pitching like a star right now and has a decent track record.
More specifically, it blows my mind that the Gray–who is pitching better than Darvish right now *and has two more years of control* didn’t get way more than the rental. I didn’t necessarily expect the A’s to get a Quintana-type deal because the contract isn’t quite as friendly and Gray doesn’t have quite Quintana’s track record, but I would have expected it to be a lot closer to Quintana’s haul than Darvish’s.
The one thing I am most shocked at is that the A’s could not even get Estevan Florial. I highly doubt they prefer an outfield prospect who just suffered one of the worst leg injuries possible to a healthy outfield prospect whose stock is on the rise. Not only did they fail to net any elite prospects (Torres, Frazier) for a good, young, controllable, starting pitcher, they also failed to land any top prospects the next rung down (Florial, Adams, Sheffield).
Huh? He’s been good, but he’s produced the same fWAR as Drew Pomeranz.
Same fWAR as Pomeranz, but in 20 fewer innings. 19th in SIERA this year. And he’s been getting better as the year goes on, so if you’re talking about “RIGHT NOW right now” that’s definitely true.
I think Sonny Gray might be one of the more polarizing players, based on the discussion so far.
I don’t find him to be that polarizing, as the vast majority agree that he’s a good or very good starting pitcher. Obviously there are some people who share your belief that he’s elite, but I don’t think that view is very common.
Yeah, I think he’s a 3.5-4.5 win guy (per 200 IP), who’s shown both injury concerns and upside for more.
Classic #2 profile.
I think he’s somewhere in between the #15-#30 starter in MLB right now, and I’d put Darvish in about the same range. They’re both excellent pitchers and improve everyone’s rotation. I have seen comments suggesting he’s more of a mid-rotation starter than a front-end one, and that surprises me.
Since Gray came into the league in 2013, Darvish has been worth 2 more wins by fWAR and 3 more wins by rWAR…in 115 fewer innings.
That comes out to 4.5 fWAR/200 and 4.9 rWAR/200 for Darvish, and 3.2 fWAR/200 and 3.3 rWAR/200 for Gray.
So…yeah. Darvish is pretty firmly a tier above Gray, even if both happen to fall into that 15-30 bucket.
It’s pretty much the gap between the “sub-ace” category of Darvish and Quintana and the “good #2” category of guys like Gray, Stroman and Lance Lynn.
Darvish was definitely a tier above. I’m talking about right now, where Darvish has slipped (only a little) and Gray has gotten (just a little) better. Unless you think Darvish has really been robbed by the poor framing…
If we’re looking at past performance instead of current performance, I think Gray doesn’t stack up as well.
But, on the same note, Yu was excellent last year after coming back from TJS.
Gray was, for lack of a better term, fucking terrible.
In their last ~200 IP, Darvish has an 85 ERA- to go with an 83 FIP-.
Gray’s come out to 117 and 96, respectively.
That’s before you get to the fact that Gray’s RA9 is much, much higher than his ERA this season, due to 11 of the 48 runs he’s allowed being unearned.
First off…Calhoun, Mateo, Fowler and Kaprielian are all very much in the same tier (what Eric likes to call 50 FV).
Within that tier, Mateo and Kaprielian offer massively higher ceilings than Calhoun.
So, the A’s got three times as many players who project as future regulars, and got players with much higher ceilings to boot.
Your “estimation” really doesn’t seem to evince an understanding of how much less the gaps in rankings mean as you leave the very top tiers of prospects.
You are not factoring in the seriously major, career-threatening injuries that Kaprielian and Fowler have right now. There is no way they are both 50+ FV prospects right now with those injuries considered, and midseason top prospects lists from BA and MLB.com confirm that.
Beyond that, Mateo’s stock is dropping (dropped from #47 preseason on MLB.com to unranked midseason and from #85 preseason on BA to unranked midseason) and I don’t see how you can say that a player who has never hit more than 8 home runs in a calendar year has a “massively higher” ceiling than a player who has hit 50 home runs over the past two seasons with a K% under 12%.
All three prospects traded to Texas are currently healthy and have never performed better. The opposite is true for prospects traded to Oakland.
Lol.
The injuries are the reason those two are only ranked as 50 FV guys.
But if they don’t hit all teh homerz, they must suck!
It’d also be a lot easier to take you seriously if you didn’t make easily refutable claims, like “There is no way they are both 50+ FV prospects right now with those injuries considered, and midseason top prospects lists from BA and MLB.com confirm that.”
When, you know, Fowler is MLB.com’s 77th ranked prospect and, per their “midseason top prospect list” has a 55 FV…while both Mateo and Kaprielian carry 50 FVs in their estimation.
As Joey says below, the issue here is largely that your opinions are uninformed and incorrect.
Those two guys were ranked as 50 FV guys before the injuries (at least on Eric’s scale; Eric is more conservative with FV ratings than MLB.com is). They’re definitely both still 50 FV guys if you don’t think the injuries are that serious and they’ll make a full recovery. I think the major disagreement in this thread is that johansantana17 and I think these injuries are pretty freaking serious, and others don’t. That, and I think there’s some disagreement on Mateo’s value–he seems like a pretty polarizing prospect.
There is some common ground here (at least with me). I agree with you that Kaprielan, Fowler, and Mateo are good prospects (even with the injuries) and the ones in the Darvish deal are not, but none of those three guys are on the same level as Calhoun (who is a really good prospect and whose body is working properly). So while it’s pretty obvious the A’s got a better return on Gray than the Rangers did on Darvish, I still don’t think Fowler/Kaprielian/Mateo is a good return for Gray.
(Caveat: If Fowler makes a full recovery he’s as safe a prospect as they come. Caveat to Caveat: That recovery is going to be brutal)
Per Eric, Kaprielian was a 55 guy before the injury. Fowler was a 50 guy in the midst of a breakout season that MLB.com (which johan has referenced) felt has made him a 55 even after the injury.
My issue isn’t with people saying the trade return seems light. Reasonable people can disagree, for the reasons you mentioned.
The issue is that “johansantana17” has no idea what he’s talking about, and is making shit up in lieu of having an actual discussion.
What have I “made up”? Nothing I said about MLB’s rankings are innaccurate. They din’t put FV grades on their prospects so I am not aure where you are getting that info… could you, gasp, be making shit up?
A) “MLB.com has none of Fowler, Mateo and Kaprielian on its midseason top 100 list.”
http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017
Fowler is ranked #77.
And, just now:
B) “They din’t [sic] put FV grades on their prospects”
http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017
When you click on Dustin Fowler’s picture, you’ll see this line:
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 50 | Field: 60 | Overall: 55
So…yeah.
You either have literally no idea what you’re talking about, or are making shit up and hoping no one calls you on it.
Chances are, both are true.
I am saying the exact same thing as you are. Not arguing these packages are equal, just that they’re too close to equal given the fact that Gray is controllable for two more years and Darvish is a rental.
Calhoun, Kaprielian, Fowler, and Mateo are all similar in prospect value. Calhoun is the safest of the bunch but also the most limited and with the least upside due to him realistically being a DH only. The A’s got three guys out of that prospect tier, albeit all three being more risky than Calhoun, while the Rangers received one guy out of that prospect tier. 3 is greater than 1. The Rangers’ one guy might end up being more valuable than the A’s package if all three of theirs flame out, but if the A’s offered those three to the Rangers right now for Calhoun, Texas would accept in a heartbeat.
That is flat out wrong. Some sources will prefer Calhoun while some will prefer all three of the A’s prospects over Calhoun. The reality is that they’re all currently around the same prospect tier.
I mean, that’s technically true about all prospects, right? You can find almost any source who will put the prospects in different tiers or the same tier, depending on how motivated you are to look. KLaw put Moncada at #17 or #19 or something, while Eric put him at #1 with a bullet.
Calhoun just looks like an incredible hitter. Sometimes we worry so much about defensive fit we don’t appreciate it when we have a potentially special hitter (and FWIW, at least Eric put him as FV55 instead of FV50, which is what he put the other two on).
Of course not. Even the people who doubt Moncada do not have him in the same prospect tier as Calhoun. If you took a bunch of rankings and found the median for each prospect, Kaprielian, Fowler, and Mateo would probably be pretty close to Calhoun. I have no problem with you preferring Calhoun over all three of them, but to definitively state that none of those three are on the same level of Calhoun is just wrong.
Eric just posted an article with the FV ratings for all the prospects traded at the deadline. All three of Oakland’s prospects got a 50 FV. That’s 150 total. Calhoun got a 55 FV, Alexy got a 45, and Davis got a 40. That’s 140 total.
My point is that 150 FV to 140 FV seems much too close for 2 1/3 seasons of Gray and 1/3 seasons of Darvish.
You shouldn’t sum prospect values, otherwise two 40s would be worth more than a 60. A better way to look at it would be to say that Texas received the #2, #18, and #23 prospects according to Longenhagen whereas Oakland received the #3, #4, and #7 prospects. As I said above, if Oakland called Texas and offered to swap those packages, the Rangers would accept in a heartbeat. It’s fine to prefer Calhoun over Kaprielian, Fowler, or Mateo but it’s clear that the A’s received more prospect currency overall.
That’s a a misleading way to add them up though, since FV40s are exchanged all the time as low-level deals. In general, you would probably rather have 3 FV50s than 4 FV45s or 5 FV40s. (Of course, I agree with your main point, but I don’t think straight addition is the way to go with this)
And everyone else’s point is that adding FVs together is a ludicrously silly way to assess the overall value of a trade.
50 vs. 40 means that the Eric expects Mateo’s future value to be a full standard deviation better than Davis’s.
Further, it doesn’t account for the fact that both Mateo and (especially) Kaprielian are high-risk 50 FVs. Both have much higher upsides than a guy like Calhoun, who Eric’s grades essentially posit as 2016 Victor Martinez with a tick more speed (2013 Kendrys Morales is another good example of that profile).
Calhoun’s an absolute lock (as much as any 22 year old prospect can be) to be a 1.5-3 win DH, but he doesn’t offer much more than that.
Kaprielian’s arm could explode, or he could be DeGrom (or Wade Davis).
Mateo could wash out, he could be Everth Cabrera, or he could be Jose Reyes.
None of those nuances are captured when you try to add FVs together.
The reason these returns don’t match your prospect valuations is because your valuations are, well, wrong. I think you’re saying that Davis and Alexy are nearly as valuable as Kaprielian and Mateo. But on this very site, the latter two were given FVs of 55 and 50, while the former two didn’t quite earn any grades at all. Not enough has Changed for it to be close.
Nothing has changed since preseason? Are you kidding me? Kaprielian got TJ surgery and Fowler tore his patellar tendon…. there is no way that they are still 55 and 50 FV prospects. By the way, there are prospect evaluation sites other than Fangraphs, and most of them rank Fowler around #90 and have Kaprielian and Mateo unranked.
Further, all I am saying is that I expected Gray to get traded for a much better package than Darvish given his two extra years of team control. Given that Calhoun is a bit better of a prospect than Fowler and that Kaprielian and Mateo might only be a bit more valuable than Davis and Alexy, the packages look much more similar than I had expected. And I think that is more because the Yankees got a steal on Gray rather than the Dodgers overpaying for Darvish.
No, you’re kidding yourself. *I never said nothing has changed*. I’m sure Kaprielian’s stock is down from his 50-something ranking. If we say he’s down to 50 FV, then that’s still more than a full grade better than Alexy.
You’re wondering why Gray went for package A and Darvish went for package B, when those packages seems so close in value to you. The simplest explanation is that they’re not really that close.
But the Darvish package has the best prospect…
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-deadline-season/
Fair enough, I was correct on Kaprielian but wrong on Fowler. 50 FV seems a bit optimistic for that severity of a knee injury to a CF who has speed as a big part of his game, but I also acknowledge that Eric has more information that I or anyone else posting in these comments does.
And 55 on Calhoun is optimistic for a guy who is realistically a DH.
Kaprielian is not to be underestimated. he will be a fine pitcher, maybe, by 2020, as good as Gray is now.
beane may not have much of a budget to work with, but he’s far from stupid or unprepared
Ive never seen so much uproar over a guy who has never posted a 4 win season. The Yankees are now as good as they were a few weeks back when Pineda was healthy. Cause frankly, its the same production level.
Gray’s War was 5.8 in 2015 when he finished 3rd in the Cy Yong. Get your facts straight or don’t post.
Not using the stats from the site you are posting on…
uh… not FIP based WAR. And when someone is pitching in Oakland, Safeco, and Angel Stadium… Stop with the RA9 WAR, it completely is skewed for someone pitching in those ballparks. Didnt Tanner Roark finish with a 6 WAR that season? YA
Theres a reason this was all the A’s got for Gray. He is not a top 40 starter.
FIP isn’t adjusted for ballpark though. FIP- is what you’re looking for.
Oh wait, my fault–I think FIP-based WAR is adjusted for ballpark.
Fangraphs war leaders has Jeff Samardiza and his 5 era at 15th. Ahead of Robbie Ray, Gio Gonzalez, Carlos Martinez, and Wacha.
…rWAR and RA9-WAR are ballpark adjusted.
Hell, rWAR is defense adjusted.
Both of those stats have him as a #2 starter who had a great 2015 as well…so it’s weird that you’re objecting to them so strenuously.
(That’s before you account for the fact that Gray is firmly in the top 40 over the last 4 years by the metrics you prefer.)
He’s a #2 starter, and that’s what the Yanks paid for.
Sonny Gray does a really good job of suppressing BABIP and inducing grounders, so he tends to overperform his estimators by a little bit. Even so, he’s #19 in SIERA among starting pitchers this year. He did a little worse in 2014/2015 (somewhere in between #30-#35) but he looks really good right now and he’s controllable for two more years. A solid #2 is nothing to sneeze at.
Sonny Grays “Cy Young” Contention 2015 season… He finished 33 out of 78 qualified starters in SIERA.
I’d say there is a lot parity in the AL East, not necessarily depth.
AL East has obtained 18/27 American League Wildcard slots. Depth is the correct term.
I’m going to take the contrary position to everyone (except johansantana17) and say that the A’s didn’t get a good return on Gray. These are three “name-brand” prospects that looked a lot better a year ago than they do now–two because of injuries, a third because his development stalled out.
If Fowler and Kaprielian actually make a full recovery then the deal looks good, but that’s a long shot that both make it back. And that doesn’t even take into account the fact that they’re prospects, so they’re likely to bust anyway–the injuries take a high-risk proposition and make them even higher risk. I think I’d consider this a fair trade had Fowler’s leg not fallen off and Kaprelian was healthy. With the injuries I don’t like it.
Meanwhile, the Yankees traded away two injured guys and a guy who was blocked everywhere and whose development had stalled out and needed to be protected on the 40-man for a legitimate #2 starter (or as someone called him yesterday, a “staff ace”) who they control for the next 2+ years.
Slightly off-topic: As a Yankees-hater, I find it incredibly depressing that they have a legit shot at a ring while keeping a Top-5 farm system and a bunch of pre-arb guys who look like stars. The rotation looks good, the lineup looks strong, the bullpen looks jaw-droppingly good…
Well if it makes you feel any better, Mateo actually kind of got himself going in AA, and now they don’t have him anymore.
Yep, that probably played into the A’s decision to take Mateo as the sole healthy prospect in the package…
I think part of what Dave wrote for the Darvish piece is relevant here: “For starters, we have to remember to adjust the expectation of a realistic return onto the market in which the transaction happened. … When it came down to it, the only teams all that interested in paying a real cost in prospects to upgrade their rotation were the Yankees and Dodgers, with Darvish and Sonny Gray representing enough supply to meet that demand.”
Cashman himself said that Torres and Frazier were off limits. What were the alternatives if not this package? Florial, Sheffield, and Acevedo have their own risks. Are you suggesting that Beane should have instead waited until the winter to deal Gray if this was the best offer he could get at the deadline? He’d probably have more interested buyers, but also a less valuable asset to sell. And he could very well have no asset to sell if Gray wound up getting hurt this year, or a very severely depressed asset if his performance tanked down the stretch for whatever reason.
I don’t have any issues with you saying that you don’t think it’s a good return. But what would be a better alternative? This is also tough to determine since we don’t know what other offers were actually available to Beane, and also what offers would have been available in the winter (assuming Gray continued to pitch well). I think Beane made it clear that he preferred not to take on the possible downside of waiting until the winter. I also think he did pretty well to acquire multiple players that possess pretty nice upside, even though they each come with significant risks.
I think you’re right–it’s true that there’s no way to know exactly what was offered for Gray. But I think acquiring (literally) broken prospects is a very questionable strategy, especially when the former’s injury is that ugly and the latter has basically no record in pro ball anyway.
I think I would have preferred a more conventional package–one really good Top-50 headliner with a couple of secondary pieces. Although you are right, the Yankees did not and should not have traded Torres or Frazier. It’s hard to know whether the Astros, Brewers, Braves, or any other team was willing to offer that (the Dodgers reportedly were not).
Or, if we’re going for comparable players in the Yankees system, I’d prefer Adams and Sheffield simply because the health questions aren’t as dramatic. Or a bunch of FV50 guys from the Dodgers or Astros or Brewers or Braves who aren’t hurt. We just have no idea that either of these scouting reports are going to be accurate.
But, of course, FV50 guys without question marks related to either injury or track record don’t offer nearly as much upside as Kaprielian.
Jorge Mateo is currently in the midst of a breakout season, posting a 147 wRC+ in his first exposure to AA while also showing improvement as a shortstop. If Fowler and Kaprielian had not been injured, there is zero chance that the A’s could have gotten all three for Sonny Gray. Honestly, sadtrombone, you just don’t know that much about prospects.
…after posting a 98 wRC+ in A+ in twice as many PAs (this year). He’s going to be at the mercy of the BABIP gods his whole career.
You’re probably right they couldn’t have gotten all three for Gray had they been healthy. That doesn’t mean that this is a good trade package, though.
re: Me not knowing much about prospects…Mr. Bolick, I am sorry for wasting your time.
For the record, I don’t think Mateo’s AA production thus far is going to last, I just wanted to correct your statement that he had stalled out. I am encouraged by reports of his defense improving, as that’s more likely to hold. Mateo is a guy whose tools significantly outstrip his skills, and as such there is a lot of uncertainty in his profile. He could end up being nothing or he could end up being a star. If I’m a rebuilding team then I prefer him over Calhoun, but if I’m a reloading team with an opening at DH then I prefer Calhoun’s high floor. There is nothing whatsoever wrong with you preferring Calhoun, I just don’t think you’re being fair to the A’s regarding the potential of the package they received.
Maybe it’s not fair. If Kaprielian and Fowler come back healthy, my comments here are going to look really dumb.
But I think you don’t understand what I have been arguing–my concern is that everyone is underestimating the chance that these injuries derail Kaprielian and (especially) Fowler. My “preference” for Calhoun over Fowler or Kaprielian is mostly based on the increased chance they never make it back. For Fowler, that’s because his injury is really serious and for Kaprielian it’s because it’s one more element of risk for a guy who has barely pitched. But Fowler and Kaprielian are very good prospects if they’re healthy.
Maybe taking on this level of risk is actually rational, and Billy Beane has figured out a new market inefficiency.
And we’re saying that you’re overcorrecting for that risk, because you’re underestimating just how much better a healthy Fowler and Kaprielian are than Calhoun.
The A’s are definitely taking a risk, here, but if either Fowler or Kaprielian pans out, they’ll have gotten a much better piece than Calhoun.
If they both do, Beane will have gotten the best package, by far, of the deadline…and that’s not even accounting for Mateo.
The A’s can’t afford to take safe prospects, right now.
Well, I’m definitely over-correcting from the perspective of the A’s front office! We’ll know more in a year or so when the rehab is (mostly? hopefully?) complete. But I’ll just point out that the likelihood that either Fowler or Kaprielian panning out is probably not any higher than Calhoun panning out. (Also, I’m not saying the A’s package is worse than the Rangers–the A’s clearly got the better package. The Gray package is definitely in between the White Sox and Rangers’ returns…the question is how close it was to each side, and whether it should have been higher)
Yeah, the issue with comparing these returns is that they’re all such different situations.
Darvish is obviously a rental, while Quintana’s much better than Gray, is under team control for an extra year, and won’t get any arbitration raises, either.
I actually think the White Sox return for him was a lot closer to their getting “jobbed” than the A’s return for Gray, just because he’s so damn cheap.
We do understand that, which is why I and others have pointed out that if Kaprielian and Fowler weren’t injured that New York wouldn’t have given them up along with Mateo for Sonny Gray. You’ve consistently demonstrated that you are higher than the majority on Gray’s value and that you’re lower than the majority on the value of these prospects. You may end up being correct, who knows.
Mid-season trade prices are supposed to be higher. I just don’t understand how the A’s couldn’t get a true blue chip prospect for 2+ of a borderline 1, excellent 2 SP. There was no reason to rush into a trade just for trading sake.
He’s a good #2, not a borderline ace like Quintana, he was terrible last season, and he’s missed time this year as well.
It does seem a little light, but I’d say the issue seems to be that there’s a conception of Gray as being a great pitcher, when he’s “only” a very good one.
Well, Jeff gave a plausible reason (and change) for the rush, but you apparently didn’t even acknowledge it.
It’s also not like Houston or another AL East team dealt Gray away for this package afterall. Gray just doesn’t hold the same marginal value for the A’s as for various other teams going forward, and if he’s a real risk for re-injury or regression (to his 2016 self), the A’s are probably in better position to know/gauge that than the rest of us here me thinks…
Rushing a trade because someone might get injured is no way to run a team. Especially when 2/3’s of what you acquire are injured, and none of what you acquire has made a dent in the MLB level.
Nobody here, including Jeff, seems to talk about this, but I find it interesting that the A’s actually added $1.5M in international signing bonus pool cap on their side.
Doesn’t that effectively send a player-to-be-named-later, very-high-risk-high-reward international teenager alongside Gray to the Yanks, especially given the new rules w/ hard cap? Don’t know what’s the equiv in the annual June Draft, but maybe something close to a middle-round(?) draft-and-follow type since $1.5M is a pretty substantial chunk of the new hard cap?
Sure, it definitely seems the least valuable piece of the trade, but it’s probably also far from nothing noteworthy, especially since it’s from the A’s side (and most other trades involving such included a good deal less cap $$$)…
Agree completely with this sentiment. 1.5 million in a bonus slot is not an insignificant amount of money, Mateo was brought in at 250K.
I find this interesting as well but for a different reason. Shohei Otani. The Yankees also received international bonus pool money from the Orioles in a deal. If Otani decides not to wait for free agency, the Yankees seem to be positioning themselves to offer him more money than everyone else.
The A’s are one of the teams in the “penalty box” for overspending on international signings, so they couldn’t sign anyone for more than $300,000 anyhow. http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/2017-18-international-bonus-pools/#eJZKPcbvZ6cdeI6k.97
Maybe to offset Kaprielian, who was apparently the sticking point in the trade.